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Swisse May 27, 2020 2:53pm | Post# 82821

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lol

OBsayMkMoney May 27, 2020 3:25pm | Post# 82822

{image} lol

???????

SFundamental May 27, 2020 5:17pm | Post# 82823

Thursday is looking good for a spike and reverse. Important USD news in the morning, and also jpy at night. If BOJ is still crippling their currency, and the US is in the midst of it's issues. Down US market, up Asian? Either way. Watch thursday. Fundamentals give price action excuses to run. {image} Spikes happen between 85 and 93% in my experience. I have alerts for the such. At 95%+ We range briefly then boom. {image}
This is what I like to see someone stacking a fundamental reasons why a hedge fund should go short/long etc...
And backed up with statistics.

OBsayMkMoney May 28, 2020 10:27am | Post# 82824

Just putting my thoughts on paper......

This morning the Dow was positive by 180 and ranged there. News came out at 8:30 EST and it popped to 240, and has been slow melting it's way towards negative. Currently at +55. The US premarket trade saw some USD/JPY volatility at around 7:45-8:15 am just before the numbers. No price didn't go nuclear, it did however move erratically. Post news has however been rather muted. If the Dow goes red UJ could get that pop we are looking for. If it pops UJ should do the opposite as it has, and 108 on the UJ has held ready to be tested another time. Perhaps tonight during BOJ news.
1hr Bullish cup and handle formation is still in effect. Price has not broken the 50% that would negate it. That level being 107.6 area (Yesterday's low). If we burn that, we may drink from the bottom on the cup.

Disclaimer. I am new to the Cup and handle pattern, and am only stating what I have read.

Dow now at +39, VIX is on the move

OBsayMkMoney May 28, 2020 7:35pm | Post# 82825

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tehnoob May 29, 2020 12:53am | Post# 82826

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Oops! Got taken out by another engulfing candle, almost a day later. This time it was indeed a prelude to a decline!
Should have grabbed the 20 pips profit from fading the first engulfer and ran, lol!

Yes it did look like the price was forming a cup & handle pattern, but I don't use such patterns personally.
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tehnoob May 29, 2020 1:01am | Post# 82827

I used to have some books on patterns, and there was also one that had some historical statistical analysis of success rates. I don't remember the names of the books though. I used to have almost all of them and now I got none

If I remember correctly, the cup & handle is supposed to be a long term accumulation pattern, so something that you'd want to see form over a long period after a decline

Ayax.TSS May 29, 2020 1:09am | Post# 82828

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tehnoob May 29, 2020 3:13am | Post# 82829

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Bought again.

It is trying to break last week's low but more likely to bounce back. Good place for a punt with small SL, putting limited capital at risk for potentially nice reward
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OBsayMkMoney May 29, 2020 9:38am | Post# 82830

Oops! Got taken out by another engulfing candle, almost a day later. This time it was indeed a prelude to a decline! Should have grabbed the 20 pips profit from fading the first engulfer and ran, lol! Yes it did look like the price was forming a cup & handle pattern, but I don't use such patterns personally. {image}
Your "last candle is "engulfine" system is helping me a lot. For me it may be the piece I was missing. I often got into trades at the edge going the wrong way. For me it has helped me define the edges because it makes perfect sense. A full candle represents orders filled. The less tail, the more orders actually got filled. Who else has the power to fill ALL orders in a candle other than big shops. The only pattern I ever put much stock in is the Head and Shoulders one. The chart performed perfectly though. The pattern stop failed, and sure enough we went down. Using your system though, it was somewhat telegraphed. Pulling up a 4hr there was a nice engulfing candle May 19th at noon showing the end of the run. I am still running it through the mill, but this may be what I needed, or at least something to work into the system. Appreciate your input. Thanks man

tehnoob May 29, 2020 10:13am | Post# 82831

{quote} Your "last candle is "engulfine" system is helping me a lot. For me it may be the piece I was missing. I often got into trades at the edge going the wrong way. For me it has helped me define the edges because it makes perfect sense. A full candle represents orders filled. The less tail, the more orders actually got filled. Who else has the power to fill ALL orders in a candle other than big shops. The only pattern I ever put much stock in is the Head and Shoulders one. The chart performed perfectly though. The pattern stop failed, and sure...
Good to hear it helps. In general, I love big long full candles at the tails of trends. They gotta be big though. Bger than all the candles before them. They signal potential exhaustion. I go looking for them. Real engulfing candles are rare. What you mostly get is the called "bullish/bearish outside candle". But for the way I tend to use them, as exhaustion signals or candles to be faded, any of them types will do me just fine. And other factors matter a lot when you see them: do they finish forming at a critical point of price/time? Like, did the candle form just as NY open? Was the price gunning for an interesting level that hadn't been touched for the whole week/month?
You will find your style. In the trading game there are so many ways to skin the proverbial cat.

Head n SHoulders are so rare. People tend to see them all the time, I see them on newsletters etc. And 95% of what they show is not a head n shoulders pattern. The human eye and brain are so attuned to seeing patterns, that sometimes they see one when none exists.

I remember a huge head n shoulders pattern on the daily and the weekly charts on the yen, especially the GBP/JPY, years ago. Maybe 10? Maybe 15 years ago? I remember watching it form, week after week, and wondering should I trade it, how? It's so huge, it can't be real.

Well it worked that time and the pay off for those who took it the traditional way was huge. I wasn't one of them! Perhaps that's why I remember it, lol

tehnoob May 29, 2020 10:17am | Post# 82832

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The long punt at London open on USDJPY has worked well so far. I just bought it because price was at the low of the currently, narrow, multi-day range
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tehnoob May 29, 2020 10:21am | Post# 82833

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But what I am REALLY looking for is this:


They say history does not repeat itself, but SOMETIMES

it rhymes




Are we rhyming now?
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krdb11 May 29, 2020 10:29am | Post# 82834

But what I am REALLY looking for is this: They say history does not repeat itself, but SOMETIMES it rhymes Are we rhyming now? {image}

So you would be expecting it to jump to the 109-110 range based off of the set up?

OBsayMkMoney May 29, 2020 10:43am | Post# 82835

Bought again. It is trying to break last week's low but more likely to bounce back. Good place for a punt with small SL, putting limited capital at risk for potentially nice reward {image}

Yep.. once again... the one hour showed it. Bearish engulfing to the area.

tehnoob May 29, 2020 10:45am | Post# 82836

{quote} So you would be expecting it to jump to the 109-110 range based off of the set up?
yes, I would be willing to take a long near the bottom of that narrow range (like the one taken earlier today) and risk some capital in the expectation of some sort of spike repeating itself.

I've had my eyes on that prior incident for 3 trading weeks now. That's why I have been saying here all these days that it was likely to move in a narrow range for several days and then spike up by 200-250 pips

The market will replay such isolated past vignettes of price movement all the time! Never exactly the same. Never at the same level. Sometimes in the opposite direction (like the same pattern but looked at through a mirror). This is what my best trades tend to come from. I love looking for them on larger timeframes, daily, weekly, monthly.

If this plays out as I think the market suggests, it will be like poetry in charts, no?

tehnoob May 29, 2020 10:51am | Post# 82837

{quote} Yep.. once again... the one hour showed it. Bearish engulfing to the area.
On my hourly charts, It didn't paint a bearish engulfing. And if it had, I wouldn't rush to fade it just because of the candle.

I took the trade long because of where the price had dived, and mostly because it offered a good risk -reward for the potential spike up trade that I just posted in the daily timeframes. That's why I was looking for an opportunity to buy at those levels. The fact that it was trying to reach last week's low was just an extra hint that, in this narrow range and given the Tokyo session was ending, it was a good idea to fade that drop

krdb11 May 29, 2020 10:58am | Post# 82838

{quote} yes, I would be willing to take a long near the bottom of that narrow range (like the one taken earlier today) and risk some capital in the expectation of some sort of spike repeating itself. I've had my eyes on that prior incident for 3 trading weeks now. That's why I have been saying here all these days that it was likely to move in a narrow range for several days and then spike up by 200-250 pips The market will replay such isolated past vignettes of price movement all the time! Never exactly the same. Never at the same level. Sometimes...

Great advice! Thank you. Would it be rash to buy into it before market close for the weekend? (Still relatively new to this)

tehnoob May 29, 2020 11:04am | Post# 82839

You will laugh, but for months now my big set up idea is that the markets (and not just them) are sort of replaying on the monthlies a vignette of action that is

12 years old, and on a larger scale, one that is 99 years old.

But I can't explain why I had that idea. I am just a crazy fish. And it alone is not a trade. But it set ups your mind for what is possible, so when you see parts of that vignette actually begin to repeat themselves, your conviction that you may be on to something, grows.

Or your paranoia! Lol

OBsayMkMoney May 29, 2020 11:10am | Post# 82840

With all being said.... This is an interesting move north. Let's review. Thursday Morning the US had bad Economic news. The chart languished all day until the Japanese news came out yesterday evening, and... It was good for JPY. So Bad, US news nothing. Good Jpy news later.. Movement.
Fast forward to today. More Economic news. More of it bad, and the chart shows a parabolic 1hr candle. Powell is on deck to speak though, so let's see what he does to the market. 1hr candle showed the end of the run down, but perhaps a revisit to it's lows? One would almost think Powell has bad news.


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