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Oc6oph Aug 10, 2019 5:08am | Post# 81081

A break of 105.50 triggered sell stops and a test of massive 105 option expiries defending that crucial support for Japanese corporates nL4N2541DG and specs. near 105.00//105.40 nice load zone for a bounce play. USDJPY won't stay below 105.00 for a long time, big turn incoming, but not until the bear sequence is complete later next week/week after. {image}
I agree looking for longs soon

OBsayMkMoney Aug 11, 2019 6:02pm | Post# 81082

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{quote} when was it? anyway for exemple Brexit, when Brexit was voted GBP drops but it was able to recover after a while plus it was already on a downward trend, news has an affect but not that much having said that the exemple of Brexit probably isn't the best as it did take months to recover but what I'm implying is that even from a major event the market recovered
The twit came out on Aug 1. I like many was already in a sell, but as you can see we still have not recovered from it. It took us out of an area of balance and down to the current one.
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OBsayMkMoney Aug 11, 2019 6:19pm | Post# 81083

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I don't think we came this far into the zone to not hit the bottom of it..
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pipcenturion Aug 12, 2019 2:39am | Post# 81084

Greetings everyone,

I suggest buying USDJPY at 105. 38 region (price has just touched this level).

Target 106.65

Stop loss : 50 pips

asgcorp Aug 12, 2019 3:53am | Post# 81085

large operators collecting premium today, big expirations at NY cut.
105 won't be breached. 107 call writers, price won't get there today.


  1. 105.00 1.4bn USD
  2. 105.50 1.5bn
  3. 107.00 2.0bn

john-smith Aug 12, 2019 3:56am | Post# 81086

{quote} The twit came out on Aug 1. I like many was already in a sell, but as you can see we still have not recovered from it. It took us out of an area of balance and down to the current one. {image}
I'm not sure that's only on trump though, if you look at every JPY exchange, that dip is present

Marz30 Aug 12, 2019 7:21am | Post# 81087

10 pips from 105

MrPresident Aug 12, 2019 7:31am | Post# 81088

protests in Hong Kong causing a sell-off in the markets

Dow futures drop 200 points as US-China trade, Hong Kong protest tensions rise

But it looks like the sell-off is exaggerated and I think that there will be a bounce higher as USD/JPY nears 105 or 104.6

asgcorp Aug 12, 2019 8:21am | Post# 81089

  1. Risk-off and oil down should both underpin Japan's yen
  2. Traders long yen but not overly long IMM/FX, just USD 1.2bln
  3. USD/JPY shorts grew over 8 billion when USD/JPY last broke towards 100
  4. Huge stops below 105.00 barriers in focus but Japan will buy
  5. Lifers buying foreign bonds. Japan post too if USD/JPY near 100
  6. 200/100-MMAs 104.43/103.45. 100.59 is a 50% retr of rise from 75.31 in 2011

asgcorp Aug 12, 2019 8:31am | Post# 81090

Global Times Shows Dramatic Video Of Chinese Army Preparing For Hong Kong Invasion

OBsayMkMoney Aug 12, 2019 10:04am | Post# 81091

10 am.. Possible TLSL rip higher to close out some shorting.

Amir_Forex Aug 12, 2019 3:41pm | Post# 81092

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newbegger Aug 12, 2019 8:17pm | Post# 81093

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{quote} Brought back above the tails before closing, Hmmm? {image}
Still good to go for more downside.

Next area of interest will be the 104.80 area. When (if) we get there, I will probably put stops above 105.10 but still targeting 104.60.

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OBsayMkMoney Aug 12, 2019 9:11pm | Post# 81094

{quote} I'm not sure that's only on trump though, if you look at every JPY exchange, that dip is present
I agree, but anytime the dollar takes a hit, it has an effect on JPY. At least that has been my experience. IMO they offset to maintain what they consider to be a balance.
Someone else on this forum has a nice chart showing FOMC hits as well as twit hits. Worth a gander. He will probably post it again soon.

asgcorp Aug 13, 2019 5:08am | Post# 81095

2.2 bln USD option at 105.00 expires NY cut, could be floor defense // barrier/

asgcorp Aug 13, 2019 6:00am | Post# 81096

MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and maintains a bearish bias, expecting prices to keep declining at a slow pace towards 104.50.
Investors typically turn to JPY and CHF in averting risk. JPY selling by Japanese investors buying overseas assets is likely to support USDJPY at times, but the trend is for JPY strengthening, if only at a slow pace. However USD remains firm against RMB and other emerging country currencies and some G10 currencies, including AUD, which has softened on falling resource prices and developments with China," MUFG notes.

"Overall, though, USD is expected to weaken slightly, as another rate cut this year is increasingly factored in and with the 10Yr yield falling to 1.6%. We expect USDJPY to slowly decline, and it could break the 105 level on growing risk aversion," MUFG adds.

pipsbrutus Aug 13, 2019 6:25am | Post# 81097

Absolutely, the bearishness is obvious but dangerous to dive into, cos you might get clipped.

asgcorp Aug 13, 2019 7:11am | Post# 81098

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I don't think it's obvious, cause I got a potential reversal setup on daily for UJ.
But entry is below 105.00.
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MrPresident Aug 13, 2019 7:30am | Post# 81099

105 is probably going to break and there will be a trend towards 100

This month is bad for risk-on and the tariffs that are to be placed on China in September is not good news

Trump may then follow with additional tariffs and then China will probably retaliate, which will be risk further negative

China may also roll in with the military to establish order in Hong Kong, which will be bad for the markets

Meindozah Aug 13, 2019 7:41am | Post# 81100

Coming from Nigeria, morning mates

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