Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Interactive Trading (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=137)
-   -   USD/JPY Discussion (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=5505)

CNTrader Jul 22, 2012 10:55pm | Post# 31181

1 Attachment(s)
Bullish butt combined with the potential of BOJ activity. Worth a shot at a long to me. Low risk trade vs reward w options for targets and stops depending on your risk tolerance.
Click to Enlarge

Name: uj bullish butt.jpg
Size: 104 KB

fxtyrant Jul 22, 2012 11:02pm | Post# 31182

Actually id like to pose this question....
With risk aversion leading to strong YEN... why would people be buying YEN if the Japanese economy slips into recession due to lack of exports may i ask??
Yes indeed the yen strength is from risk aversion from other country... but whats the use of holding YEN if the Japanese economy is faltering ever since 1980?
Sooner or later the YEN will weaken, but we'll see significant moves when that happens....
for now... short on pullback with tight SL is the strategy to play...

CNTrader Jul 22, 2012 11:16pm | Post# 31183

Actually id like to pose this question....
With risk aversion leading to strong YEN... why would people be buying YEN if the Japanese economy slips into recession due to lack of exports may i ask??
Yes indeed the yen strength is from risk aversion from other country... but whats the use of holding YEN if the Japanese economy is faltering ever since 1980?
Sooner or later the YEN will weaken, but we'll see significant moves when that happens....
for now... short on pullback with tight SL is the strategy to play...
You make a great point!! And you are most likely gonna be right!! In the meantime I'm long until I hit targets or get stopped out or have another reason why I should be short that is stronger then the reasons Im long. LOL. For me nice Harmonic pattern at good structure and good RVR IMVHO with the BOJ sitting quietly incognito at these levels. But what the hell do I know? Read my signature lol

CNTrader Jul 22, 2012 11:31pm | Post# 31184

Actually id like to pose this question....
With risk aversion leading to strong YEN... why would people be buying YEN if the Japanese economy slips into recession due to lack of exports may i ask??
Yes indeed the yen strength is from risk aversion from other country... but whats the use of holding YEN if the Japanese economy is faltering ever since 1980?
Sooner or later the YEN will weaken, but we'll see significant moves when that happens....
for now... short on pullback with tight SL is the strategy to play...

BTW if this is truly your thoughts on Usd/Jpy shouldnt you change your sentiment to bearish instead of bullish with conviction? Just sayin. Doesnt really matter to me lol. Im just a blind squirrell trying to find a nut.

fxtyrant Jul 22, 2012 11:39pm | Post# 31185

BTW if this is truly your thoughts on Usd/Jpy shouldnt you change your sentiment to bearish instead of bullish with conviction? Just sayin. Doesnt really matter to me lol. Im just a blind squirrell trying to find a nut.
to be honest with you im a bit confused why azumi or BOJ is allowing the YEN to go so strong... dont say they are broke or they dont have money...
we have seen time and time again how the Americans are printing money and getting themselves into debt and yet their economy survives...
BOJ can print money.... but i am really wondering why they are not doing anything yet....

NEVER EVER think that a National Bank can run out of money....
problem with the japanese economy is because of its early boom in 1980s, the economy has been in decline ever since and the YEN is deflating.... while demand for YEN is up.... even if they printed money, they will just owe people EVEN MORE money.... but its better than to see its economy by which they are export oriented, to completely die... THEN they will suffer big time on cost push inflation while their money's been deflating....

UPDATE: Latest figure of BOJ's Current Account Balance.... they got 22,200 Billion Yen... thats 22 Trillion Yen to flood the market if they please....
http://twitter.com/DailyFXTeam/statu...94662367154176

once again dont ever ever say the Japs are broke... yes their Debt to GDP ratio is without a doubt unsustainable BUT... their Debt are to their own people and Japanese are patriotic to their country
Japs are people who are like "Till death do us part" type.... they are unlikely to give up on their own country.... so no fear of widespread Demand for National debt payback.

realjumper Jul 23, 2012 1:53am | Post# 31186

to be honest with you im a bit confused why azumi or BOJ is allowing the YEN to go so strong...
Because intervention will incur the wrath of Uncle Sam, and because even Azumi knows that intervention will not work because the Euro crisis is fueling the Yen. hu hu hu

fxtyrant Jul 23, 2012 2:01am | Post# 31187

Because intervention will incur the wrath of Uncle Sam, and because even Azumi knows that intervention will not work because the Euro crisis is fueling the Yen. hu hu hu
likewise likewise...
good god save the world.... what we need is a volcanic eruption near Europe and Gold minerals get blasted out, then Europe can claim it to save itself....

torkay77 Jul 23, 2012 6:05am | Post# 31188

1 Attachment(s)
approaching critical demand level again...lots of stops below 77.6 which could be soon taken out.... a clear break below 78.6 fib level should also lead to further downside momentum but i don't expect a new all time low as i think BOJ will try to avoid it
Click to Enlarge

Name: ScreenHunter_03 Jul. 23 11.59.jpg
Size: 102 KB

Mr.Kruger Jul 23, 2012 6:56am | Post# 31189

another short @ 78.175

Mpt Jul 23, 2012 7:08am | Post# 31190

another short @ 78.175
Yet another superb dicitation. A thoroughly thought provoking analysis, all backed up with an excellent chart. Well done!

infinitus Jul 23, 2012 8:28am | Post# 31191

likewise likewise...
good god save the world.... what we need is a volcanic eruption near Europe and Gold minerals get blasted out, then Europe can claim it to save itself....
Best I ever read about Euro

RUN-pips-RUN Jul 23, 2012 9:50am | Post# 31192

it seems that the UJ is nearing the end of its rally on the H1. ~78.28 looks to be a swing high with the pair struggling to go higher than the current ~78.20. It does not appear as though it can go much higher than the current swing high. Any other views?

CNTrader Jul 26, 2012 11:09am | Post# 31193

1 Attachment(s)
Attention starting to be turned to buying this pair.
Click to Enlarge

Name: uj bullish butt.jpg
Size: 114 KB

leveraged Jul 26, 2012 3:49pm | Post# 31194

Long UJ
 
Attention starting to be turned to buying this pair.

I actually am long UJ @ 78.22 expecting 77.90-78.00 to hold. There has been very good volume on the 4hr charts to expect a good bounce from here.

CNTrader Jul 27, 2012 11:02am | Post# 31195

1 Attachment(s)
Attention starting to be turned to buying this pair.

Target 1 attained banked 30 pips stops rolled to BE
Click to Enlarge

Name: uj bullish butt.jpg
Size: 107 KB

leveraged Jul 27, 2012 11:26am | Post# 31196

UJ Long
 
Target 1 attained banked 30 pips stops rolled to BE

How much did you scale back on your 1st target?

I'm letting this one run, expecting to get out of 1st half of trade at around 79.00 letting the 2nd half run.

torkay77 Jul 27, 2012 12:02pm | Post# 31197

this 4h candle is huge...doesn't look like a fake move, we might see 80.50 in august again

CNTrader Jul 27, 2012 2:58pm | Post# 31198

How much did you scale back on your 1st target?

I'm letting this one run, expecting to get out of 1st half of trade at around 79.00 letting the 2nd half run.

I took 25% off you will notice I have 4 targets thats how much ill be taking off along the way till i reach T4. After that i will roll stops up as far as she lets me. Looking for a Bat pattern completion at 83.43. A lot can happen between now and then though and Im sure price action will give me more opportunities to add to a winning trade. patiently!

heraclitus Jul 30, 2012 2:26pm | Post# 31199

take long @ 78.20, target 78.50 sl 77.95, eur/jpy long also

Mr.Kruger Jul 30, 2012 6:23pm | Post# 31200

why are you boys so bullish?


© Forex Factory