PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)
Notice #1: We intend the contents of this thread to be detrimental to the "commercial interests" of the crooks running the currency market.
Notice #2: Read Post #1 completely and follow all instructions completely, and be serious about it or lose your posting privilege here.
Dear Gals and Guys, Fellow Retail Traders All,
"PVSRA" stands for Price, Volume, S&R Analysis. Now, with it's own thread, PVSRA is off to a New Beginning. Post #1 is the introduction to the thread and will contain the links to important content. It will undergo changes over time. Keep yourselves up-to-date. Refer back to Post #1 regularly.
This is a New Beginning, but not just for PVSRA. It is for all of you,....as it always has been for all of you. It is your thread. Here I shall be, as I have always been, just the caretaker of the body of work that follows. And, you have my pledge, that I have no commercial intentions and that everything here will be freely offered and shared in the spirit of retail traders helping retail traders, so that we may all experience growing success and God's Blessings for helping others.
This thread is the new text book for PVSRA. A good text book has clear text and illustrations. Please do this new text book proud and have the caring to make your posts well explained and very legible. Some will read these posts many months or even years from now. Will your post make sense to them then? The posting etiquette here is what best serves this new text book. Only post charts using our template(s), and if you use the MT4 "Quick Order" panel located in the upper left of the chart, please turn it off for posted pictures! Please understand our overall objective and be supportive of it. By doing so, you will help further the body of work being developed here, and you will have the thanks of the many others that are helping and being helped.
For clean postings of pictures of your chart, please follow these instructions:
1. Create Desktop file with some name like "Screenshots Jun 2015".
2. Click on "File" in MT4 banner.
3. Click on "Save as Picture".
4. Check "Active chart (as is).
5. Uncheck rectangle about MQL5.
6. Click ok.
7. Save to the Desktop file you created, from which you can retrieve for attaching to FF posts.
This will save a picture of just your chart, without all the distracting garbage that surrounds it! If any are not doing this, please start doing it for the sake of this thread's objective to be the best teaching text book ever!
Introduction to PVSRA
So, let us begin with an overview of PVSRA. In time, more will be transcribed here, but let this suffice for now. I would like to break this up and say something brief about each part. Okay?
Price - Some people say "Price Action is King". I say, we cannot know how the MMs (Market Makers) will move price next, period. But price tends to consolidate above key SR when MMs are filling short orders for SM (Smart Money) and long orders for DM (Dumb Money), and price tends to consolidate below key SR when MMs are filling long orders for SM and short orders for DM. The MMs are also "SM", and they tend to do the other SMs "one better"! This means that after the MMs fill the SM/DM orders, they might move price a bit further in an attempt to stop out some of those SM executed orders and sucker in more DM; both giving liquidity for the MMs to add to their own SM side position. Yes, the MMs are bastards. But the point is that could leave price not "nicely" above or below a SR anymore, yet more consolidation can occur.
Volume - Increases in activity denote increase in interest. But, is it long or short interest? Where is price in the bigger picture when this is happening? Is it at relative highs, or lows in the overall price action? And if a high volume bar is for a candle which you can examine by going to lower TF charts, you might see where in the spread of that candle the most volume occurred, high or low! Using volume is about taking note of relative increases in volume and what price is doing at the same time. Are the better volumes favoring the lower or the higher prices, as the MMs waffle price up and down? And do the volumes get particularly notable when the MMs take price above or below key SR?
S&R - Read all about S&R at "Baby Pips.com". What I want you to realize here is that the whole, half and quarter numbered price levels (hereinafter referred to as "Levels") are the most important SR of all in this market! Not because price stops, pauses, proceeds or reverses there, but because it is above or below these levels that important consolidation (MMs filling SM orders) takes place. Once SM long orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at higher prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price higher, eventually. Once SM short orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at lower prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price lower, eventually.
PVSRA - If we can spot consolidations above/below key SR, examine the overall price action on various TF charts, and take note of where the notable increases in volume have most recently occurred (did volume favor relative highs or lows), then we can build a consensus about what kind of orders the MMs have most recently been filling; buying to open longs or close shorts, or selling to open shorts or close longs. And we can get a better idea if things will next become bullish or bearish. And once PA confirms our bullish or bearish PVSRA results, by recognizing the importance of Levels we can look beyond current PA in the direction it is going and look to historic PA S&R (consolidation around key Levels) to come up with candidates for where the price might be headed. And bull or bear swings typically run in terms of 100+, 150+, 200+ pips, .....etc. And now you know why.
Okay. Now, if this is your first introduction to PVSRA, and having just read the above, you are likely scratching your head and still confused. That is normal. I will tell you a secret about the market and why you have a right to be confused. The secret is this. The market cannot be defined by mathematics nor by immutable logic. This is why the most advanced mathematicians over a century have never even come close to cracking the market. It cannot be done. Something else, other than math and immutable logic is the fundamental operand in the market. Have you ever watched a child attempt a jigsaw puzzle for the first time? And watched as that child grew and attempted more of them, and more complex ones? What is at work in the market I will elaborate on later, but for now trust me in this. We need to apply ourselves to learning how to do PVSRA just as a child attacks learning how to do jigsaw puzzles. And we must continue doing PVSRA, because in time our mind will "learn" when we have just picked up an important piece of the puzzle, and that we know where it goes! Developing the skill of PVSRA is an art form. We must not allow ourselves to feel badly if we miss clues. PVSRA is an art form that takes time to perfect. Over time our skill will grow and our "read" of the unpredictable market will improve. We must take to ongoing learning and application of PVSRA.
Introduction to How the Market Really Works
Does anybody remember the "lil' Abner" cartoons in the Sunday papers? Let me draw for you a mental picture of how the market really works.....
Imagine Daddy Yokum ferociously racing a buckboard wagon up and down the steep inclines and declines in the rough, rocky mountain road that has sharp turns and a sheer cliff on one side. The wagon wheels are spewing rocks off the side of the cliff! Even Daddy Yokum's shotgun is going off due to the jolting of the buckboard! Daddy Yokum has a demented look on his face, but he is smiling! The horse has a wild look in it's eyes and is frothing at the mouth. There are two passengers being tossed around in the back of the buckboard, terror stricken! Now, let's pan back from this cartoon picture and place the labels needed. On the side of the wagon is the sign "Market Pricing". The demented, smiling Daddy Yokum, is the Market Maker. The passengers being tossed around are the buyers and sellers.
.....Got it? Market prices are not determined by the buyers and sellers. They are determined by the Robber Bank Market Makers (MMs).
MMs are Market Manipulators of Price, and Thieves!
The "market" is the sole creation of the Robber Banks that "make the market". While it serves the world of commerce, they run it to make profits. And they opened the market up to foster prolific currency trading by others for the sole purpose of making more profits. They move prices up and down to "create liquidity" to fill the orders of SM (Smart Money) and DM (Dumb Money), for the commissions they make by filling the orders. When they have some orders above the current price and some below the current price, who do you think determines the sequence of direction and distance the price is going to move so these orders can be filled? And always - since they know how they are going to move price next - they take positions themselves to make additional profits.
They do this by:
1. Manipulating price to sucker into the market DM that is taking the wrong side position.
2. Manipulating price to sucker into the market SM that is taking the right side position, but too soon, and later manipulating price to hit their stops.
They have total control of pricing, and by these actions they effectively "steal" from others the money to fill their own "right side" positions before moving the price to the next area they have decided on for filling orders, and for taking profit on their positions built beforehand. Don't get me wrong. I do not object to the market volatility these thieving Robber Banks create. We need it. But we also need to understand what these people are like, the cloth they are cut from. They are crooks, and we have to be extra careful about trading in the market they operate. On some special days you can see them in their true colors. We should witness it. Take note of it. Speak of it. And remember it!
So, it makes sense that we must Cautiously Ride the Coattails of the Crooks Operating this Market!
The PVSRA Template(s) and Indicators
At the bottom of Post #1 you will find the latest available zip file containing the sample template and supporting indicators for both black and white charts. Download the zip file. Extract it to yield the two folders for black and white charts which contain the files for the indicators and templates. Paste the indicator files into the MT4/MQL4/Indicators folder. Be sure the indicators go into the MQL4/Indicators folder. Access this folder from the opened MT4 platform by clicking on File/Open Data Folder/MQL4/Indicators. If your operating system is Windows 7 or 8 and you have difficulty with the indicators/templates, right click on MT4 icon -> properties -> compatibility win xp sp3. Paste the template files into the MT4/Templates folder. Restart your MT4 application.
Warning! Do Your Homework! - For information on the use of indicator basic features, definitions and changes from previous versions, read the User Notes at the top of the code of each indicator. The User Notes are there to instruct, inform and avoid having to repeatedly answer the same questions from "newbies". Therefore, be hereby advised! Read the User Notes and experiment with the External Inputs of these indicators instead of asking questions! You can read the User Notes after the indicators are installed into MT4. In the main MT4 window there is a yellow icon representing a manual. Click on it to open the MetaEditor, where you will find a list called the Navigator that contains a file called Indicators wherein you will find our indicators. Double click on any of our indicators in that list and the code for it will appear in the MetaEditor window. You will find the User Notes at the top of the code. A brief summary follows.
#1 Trade Levels - This indicator replaces the need to display the MT4 build-in trade level lines, which clutter the chart and cannot be customized. Our indicator displays trade entry points and levels, the level for the average of all EPs (permits variable sizes), and the levels of your TP and SL. Lines are color coded, include labels (including a Profit/Loss label), and make for a cleaner chart while providing much better information to help you manage your trade.
#2 Access Panel - This indicator gives you access to a number of charting features, including a Clock, special Bid and Ask lines, the display of Levels, "Natural" Fibos, time zone adjustable Pivots, Range H/L marks for the day and week, special vertical day Separators and vLines that mark the start-end of important markets during the day. Take note that some of the features mentioned here you will find turned "Off" on the sample templates. You will have to use the External Inputs provided to turn them "On. This indicator has many External Inputs for customizing. Daylight Savings Time considerations are fully automatic. A proper chart display is not dependent on live data feed. However, this indicator has a critical setup procedure users must follow, so read the User Notes!
#3 FFCAL Panel - This indicator lists up to four coming events that can affect market volatility, using prioritizing code for best assurance of "early warning."
#4 Trend Suite - This indicator provides a variety of ways you can display a moving average line: a dot filled band, a simple line or multiple lines, and a solid colored configuration. By default, this is set to draw a 50 EMA, a good choice replacing the need to display more than one moving average line.
#5 Candles Suite - This indicator draws PVA (Price-Volume Analysis) bars, candlesticks and candle bodies, as well as standard bars, candlesticks and Heiken-Ashi candles. An alert option signals when a "Climax" PVA situation exists.
#6 Volumes Suite - This indicator draws a PVA (Price-Volume Analysis) volumes histogram or a standard volumes histogram in the first chart subwindow. An alert option signals when a "Climax" PVA situation exists.
Acknowledgements - I wish to express my sincere appreciation of the following individuals whose efforts make our indicators the superlative indicators that they are. We owe a debt of gratitude to them for their work:
"caveman" - for his generous contribution to TzPivots coding back in the early days of the THV thread, and which has been carried forward since.
"pips4life" - for his excellent Clock which is the basis for our Clock, and for controlling our market vLines and TzPivots thru Daylight Savings Time shifts.
"qFish" - for substantial and critical code in our Trade Levels indicator, Chart Scale code in our Trend/Candles/Volumes Suite indicators and work on FFCal.
"deVries" - for recoding the handling of files in our FFCal indicator so it would run properly on MT4 Build 600+.
"atstrader" - for a feature added to FFCal, and for recent additional modification of the file handling code.
Sample Templates - The sample templates (for both black and white charts) are just a start. Many different templates can be created by changing the External Inputs of the indicators and re-saving with a different name. This is the recommended way to customize for yourself. Do not try to customize any chart but the sample templates provided. You can run into serious problems you are not aware of due to the complexities involved in how the order of our indicators affect the proper displays of the others, and in how certain MT4 chart properties are set! Attachment 1685156Attachment 1685157
Notice: Always use the latest file. Be sure your file was downloaded after the date and time stamp of the file below:
Subscribed..i hope this thread did not run too fast & advanced for new trader to understand...
Hallo TAH, i suscribed. TY
Its my wish that this thread starts from the very basics, step by step. Thumbs up to the prof!!! Subscribed.
Cool man!! Thanks.. Just got into this forex and now trying to catch up how to use this system.
New Chapter. Good, subscribed
As "PVSRA" is my favorite strategy too, stepped in... Thanks for open.. tah
Great work,cheers zan.
It is my great opportunity to see what TAH is doing. TAH you really indeed a great soul and doing the best for the community. Great job TAH.
Great ! - Hope you do the"conversion" as soon as possible/practical.
Wish you and everybody/Sonicker well!
Subscribed, looking forward to this...
Edit: Not good in explanation.
please let us give our brilliant professor Tah some time and space on this thread.
He has a lot of work to do,
seems like he never sleeps at all just to share without being paid in the traditional way.
Let's have some patience to show our respect for him.
When he is finished with the basics, we can all party..
As Tah already mentioned, the Template from his old thread will not be used here, so plase hold back.
Please read his Letters about the new thread in his old thread!
(Otherwise he has to start new again..)
I will follow this thread with a big interest!
Maybe for a while, ill post on the other thread (the old one) until our new home ready by TAH command..
Congratulation for your thread, TaH. You quickly became the lifeblood in the old thread and there is no doubt this one will be as enjoyable.
I just have two suggestions:
- You always give deep analysis, you usually don't leave a lot of space for doubt. So I think it will help the newbie if you put a lexicon of the acronyms used specifically in the thread.
- Maybe you should also set clear rules of what we can and can't do, since you're the boss.
Just my 2 pips...
GBPJPY Long Trade Open:
PVSRA based. MMs have taken price to previous highs above half number and have most recently been dropping price down thru it. And the area below the half number is a previous consolidation area. I presume the consolidation was MMs filling SM long orders. I presume the run down yesterday was the MMs stop hunting those longs. They manufactured a nice 100+ pips drop in order to stop out a good number of those SM long orders they filled earlier. With two GBP high impact releases followed by two JPY high impact releases coming, all within the next day and a half, there should be more price movement. MY trade is long because I can see the possibility the MMs will drive the GBP up using the GBP releases as the trigger. Then the later JPY releases might be the trigger for a reversal. The RWH area looks like a likely target for the MMs to push this up to before any reversal. (All of this was first posted on the other thread)
GBPJPY Long Trade Update:
Getting close now. I killed the hard SL and reset it soft using our Trade Levels indicator. I did let price go below it without closing the trade due to the kind of day it is. I also added to the trade where I perceived the opportunity to be a good one. And the TP is adjusted slightly higher.
GBPJPY Long Trade Closed:
Closed for gain of 140.1 pips average, 1,120.5 pips total gain.
This is a new beginning, but not just for me. It is for all of you,....as it always has been for all of you. It is your thread. Here I shall be, as I have always been, just the caretaker of the body of work that follows. And, you have my pledge, that I have no commercial intentions and that everything here will be freely offered and shared in the spirit of retail traders helping retail traders, so that we may all experience growing success and God's Blessings for helping others., -tah
This is awesome!
You are very Very generous and helpful
Thanks an old re-starters.
IN on first page!!
TAH I want to thank you for your countless hours of selfless education and teachings. And I personally am very excited bout this new chapter. I'll await further instruction on which templates to use or if we should modify our current template to say PVSRA.
Or for us non programmers if someone can post a screen shot of what this code should look like, from metaeditor.
According to the volume, how can we determine if MMs are profit taking or building a positon?
In the Beginning PVSRA sucks! We learn just enough to understand MM's possible intentions, but also more than enough to be dangerous.
I've been tempted to start my own thread about how to get rich by doing the opposite of what I do, but with this new thread maybe I can share my newbie mistakes.
At least I hope they are "Newbie" mistakes and I learn enough to stop making them.
Yesterday morning LS presented with a very nice classic wave formation with solid volume. Classic wave for short= High/ Low/ Low-High/ Low-Low with activity above 1/4 number and PA trending down on M15 Chart. When trading Forex we should know PA does not always go directly to its target area and often there is a retrace. SO I entered when I noticed the trend and I placed a SL just at the top the wave when is should have allowed further deviation and what I believe the target area based on previous high volume around lower 1/2 number.
Where I went wrong:
I watched that stupid bid line too closely and on small time charts. I began to doubt myself as I looked not at the bigger picture, but at my negative trade. The bigger picture is you want to buy at the highest price and sell at the lowest. Now I know this should be common sense to anyone trading, and maybe everyone who comes here will have the knowledge and discipline not to make this mistake. I hope so, but maybe this will help a fellow newbie to Forex.
The first chart below shows the wave I saw and where I entered. The second chart will show how I closed my trades at what I now interpret as a "Stop-Hunt" of shorts.
If I had the experience and "faith" we see PA did as soon as I closed at a loss continue with my initial analysis.
Finally the 3rd chart shows what could be a nice reentry point as a possible 2nd "Stop-Hunt" on shorts happens early in NY session.
TAH please let me know if I should refrain from posting my many faults and what not to do's, I just feel if anyone traded the complete opposite of me they could retire very soon. Also, I have many more what "Not-To-Do's"!!!
Do Not be this guy who Closes the correct trade at a loss...
Edit: Charts removed until approved template is graciously provided...
Subscribed, hello everyone.
Multiple JPY High Imapct Releases Coming
Yes, and all within the period from about 12 hours to 23 hours from now! I can only guess if the MMs will use them as a trigger to move the JPY pairs, but that might be the case. We should probably assume some kind of movement is planned by the MMs and start looking for clues.
My first thought is that maybe this trio of releases might be the trigger for the JPY pairs to begin reversals. For example, mayby USDJPY will peak and drop. I really do not know, but I am watching for signs that the MMs might use the intervening time to whip up the xxxJPY pairs so that they begin dropping them later from higher prices than they are at now. As I write this though, I see no start yet of any pre-reversal price pumps so there can be topping out consolidations beyond what is going on at their current levels.
So, I am just waiting and watching to try and size up what, if anything, might be afoot. And, I am keeping in mind that if nothing seems to be afoot right up to the end of these releases, the MMs might simply be planning one of the biggest whipsaws so far this year. Anything can happen, and it is all the more precarious due to tomorrow being Friday, which is infrequently a real high volatility day. But, there are those three JPY high impact releases coming, and three USD high impact releases are coming also!
All hail "Freaky Friday"!
Lots of Greek being spoken for a new thread.
What is a MM?
What is a half price?
How the Market Works: EURUSD
The H1 chart shows a minor double bottom yesterday, which is probably not very significant. But we can see before it there was consolidation below the half number level. Now that could be buying to close shorts. Everything afterwards might be part and parcel to the MMs completing the closing of their own shorts and then working the price up and down to create liquidity for filling SM long orders, also below the half number level.
You can see there is plenty of time left for the MMs to work at this. The next EUR high impact is 16+ hours away. The trio of USD high impacts is 20+ hours away. We might get some valid clues in the next Asian session, as it is the last for the week and precedes all these coming releases. For now, I am reservedly bullish on this, but not sufficiently suicidal to venture into a trade on it yet.
There is no telling what antics the MMs will pull on "Freaky Friday", especially with so many high impact releases scheduled and one of them being another FOMC event late in the US session. If we see bullish signs now, it might be due to the MMs working the price in the way they know suckers money into the market on the long side, which might be the right side, but which might be too early because the MMs might be planning on stop hunting them late tomorrow.
The DAY chart suggests bulls, too, with that tighter spread candle yesterday putting in the low below the whole number with the highest volume in quite some time.
"1/2 price" I am guess refer to or same as 1/2 number. Example MM building EU long positions below 1/2 number or 1.1150
Hello, Tah. According to your comment on E/U, what should be the clues for buying?
PVSRA is a form of analysis. It takes into consideration all the three most important market metrics: price, volume, S&R. Price refers to everything about price, from individual candle configurations, group configurations, price action waves and major price patterns. Volume changes denote changes in interest. So, notable increases can give us clues as to what price levels are most popular, but to determine if for buying or if for selling we have to look at more. S&R knowledge is a must! How price behaves around key S&R, and how the volume changes around key S&R can give us more clues.
Do not expect a simple answer to your question. The market is not a simple place to make money. A lot of people have lost all their money learning this! This thread is about PVSRA. It is not "simple". But it is effective. If you want it, you have to learn it and you have to apply it continuously in your trading. Eventually your skill with it brings fruit. Nothing is "easy" about the market, especially developing the skills needed to take more money from it than it takes from you. Anyone who believes otherwise is a novice. Anyone who wants something that comes easy has no business trying their hand in the market.
Did you even bother to read Post #1 before asking the question?
This is a new thread. It is the text book for PVSRA. This text book will be written page by page, complete with text and illustrations, the quality of which is desired to be the highest, but will depend on the care and concern each person posting puts into their work here. In time there will be treatises on PVSRA and other aspects of the market, which will be in Post #1 or Post #1 will have links to them. We will all learn and improve as we build this text book, caring and sharing with others through our posts what we are doing, but more importantly why we are doing it.
Please see the registrar in the lobby to sign up for this class. There is no tuition, but you must bring your own computers,....the one in front of you and the one on sitting on your shoulders.
There might be a potential H&S formation on H1.
The price consolidating above the whole level- PVSRA indication for short.
The chart included in the old thread for now..
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