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-   -   PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis) (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=540706)

Mauro-J May 21, 2015 5:23am | Post# 21

Dear All, please let us give our brilliant professor Tah some time and space on this thread. He has a lot of work to do, seems like he never sleeps at all just to share without being paid in the traditional way. Let's have some patience to show our respect for him. When he is finished with the basics, we can all party..

Maybe for a while, ill post on the other thread (the old one) until our new home ready by TAH command..

AiWoZhongHua May 21, 2015 5:33am | Post# 22

Congratulation for your thread, TaH. You quickly became the lifeblood in the old thread and there is no doubt this one will be as enjoyable.

I just have two suggestions:

- You always give deep analysis, you usually don't leave a lot of space for doubt. So I think it will help the newbie if you put a lexicon of the acronyms used specifically in the thread.

- Maybe you should also set clear rules of what we can and can't do, since you're the boss.


Just my 2 pips...

traderathome May 21, 2015 5:36am | Post# 23

3 Attachment(s)
GBPJPY Long Trade Open:

PVSRA based. MMs have taken price to previous highs above half number and have most recently been dropping price down thru it. And the area below the half number is a previous consolidation area. I presume the consolidation was MMs filling SM long orders. I presume the run down yesterday was the MMs stop hunting those longs. They manufactured a nice 100+ pips drop in order to stop out a good number of those SM long orders they filled earlier. With two GBP high impact releases followed by two JPY high impact releases coming, all within the next day and a half, there should be more price movement. MY trade is long because I can see the possibility the MMs will drive the GBP up using the GBP releases as the trigger. Then the later JPY releases might be the trigger for a reversal. The RWH area looks like a likely target for the MMs to push this up to before any reversal. (All of this was first posted on the other thread)Click to Enlarge

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GBPJPY Long Trade Update:

Getting close now. I killed the hard SL and reset it soft using our Trade Levels indicator. I did let price go below it without closing the trade due to the kind of day it is. I also added to the trade where I perceived the opportunity to be a good one. And the TP is adjusted slightly higher.Click to Enlarge

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GBPJPY Long Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 140.1 pips average, 1,120.5 pips total gain.Click to Enlarge

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leentjai May 21, 2015 5:48am | Post# 24

1 Attachment(s)
First post
Opened and closed Short GBP/USD +5440p total
Sorry for delay,but broker not best one...
Click to Enlarge

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napipleon May 21, 2015 6:46am | Post# 25

This is a new beginning, but not just for me. It is for all of you,....as it always has been for all of you. It is your thread. Here I shall be, as I have always been, just the caretaker of the body of work that follows. And, you have my pledge, that I have no commercial intentions and that everything here will be freely offered and shared in the spirit of retail traders helping retail traders, so that we may all experience growing success and God's Blessings for helping others., -tah
Tah!

Dear TAH!

This is awesome!
You are very Very generous and helpful
Thanks an old re-starters.

newagetk May 21, 2015 6:53am | Post# 26

First post Opened and closed Short GBP/USD +5440p total Sorry for delay,but broker not best one... {image}
was waiting for your chart but little bit late pal very nice move congrats I just watched it fly away

slimypips May 21, 2015 7:29am | Post# 27

1 Attachment(s)
IN on first page!!
TAH I want to thank you for your countless hours of selfless education and teachings. And I personally am very excited bout this new chapter. I'll await further instruction on which templates to use or if we should modify our current template to say PVSRA.
Or for us non programmers if someone can post a screen shot of what this code should look like, from metaeditor.
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bodring May 21, 2015 8:52am | Post# 28

According to the volume, how can we determine if MMs are profit taking or building a positon?

slimypips May 21, 2015 9:29am | Post# 29

In the Beginning PVSRA sucks! We learn just enough to understand MM's possible intentions, but also more than enough to be dangerous.
I've been tempted to start my own thread about how to get rich by doing the opposite of what I do, but with this new thread maybe I can share my newbie mistakes.
At least I hope they are "Newbie" mistakes and I learn enough to stop making them.

Yesterday morning LS presented with a very nice classic wave formation with solid volume. Classic wave for short= High/ Low/ Low-High/ Low-Low with activity above 1/4 number and PA trending down on M15 Chart. When trading Forex we should know PA does not always go directly to its target area and often there is a retrace. SO I entered when I noticed the trend and I placed a SL just at the top the wave when is should have allowed further deviation and what I believe the target area based on previous high volume around lower 1/2 number.
Where I went wrong:
I watched that stupid bid line too closely and on small time charts. I began to doubt myself as I looked not at the bigger picture, but at my negative trade. The bigger picture is you want to buy at the highest price and sell at the lowest. Now I know this should be common sense to anyone trading, and maybe everyone who comes here will have the knowledge and discipline not to make this mistake. I hope so, but maybe this will help a fellow newbie to Forex.
The first chart below shows the wave I saw and where I entered. The second chart will show how I closed my trades at what I now interpret as a "Stop-Hunt" of shorts.
If I had the experience and "faith" we see PA did as soon as I closed at a loss continue with my initial analysis.
Finally the 3rd chart shows what could be a nice reentry point as a possible 2nd "Stop-Hunt" on shorts happens early in NY session.

TAH please let me know if I should refrain from posting my many faults and what not to do's, I just feel if anyone traded the complete opposite of me they could retire very soon. Also, I have many more what "Not-To-Do's"!!!

Do Not be this guy who Closes the correct trade at a loss...

Edit: Charts removed until approved template is graciously provided...

forexn00b May 21, 2015 10:14am | Post# 30

First post Opened and closed Short GBP/USD +5440p total Sorry for delay,but broker not best one... {image}
LONG. Congrats my Lady! Had the same trade but smaller profit.

Subscribed, hello everyone.

traderathome May 21, 2015 10:57am | Post# 31

Multiple JPY High Imapct Releases Coming

Yes, and all within the period from about 12 hours to 23 hours from now! I can only guess if the MMs will use them as a trigger to move the JPY pairs, but that might be the case. We should probably assume some kind of movement is planned by the MMs and start looking for clues.

My first thought is that maybe this trio of releases might be the trigger for the JPY pairs to begin reversals. For example, mayby USDJPY will peak and drop. I really do not know, but I am watching for signs that the MMs might use the intervening time to whip up the xxxJPY pairs so that they begin dropping them later from higher prices than they are at now. As I write this though, I see no start yet of any pre-reversal price pumps so there can be topping out consolidations beyond what is going on at their current levels.

So, I am just waiting and watching to try and size up what, if anything, might be afoot. And, I am keeping in mind that if nothing seems to be afoot right up to the end of these releases, the MMs might simply be planning one of the biggest whipsaws so far this year. Anything can happen, and it is all the more precarious due to tomorrow being Friday, which is infrequently a real high volatility day. But, there are those three JPY high impact releases coming, and three USD high impact releases are coming also!

All hail "Freaky Friday"!

-tah

billbss May 21, 2015 11:22am | Post# 32

Lots of Greek being spoken for a new thread.
What is a MM?
What is a half price?
Thanks

LastSAMURAI May 21, 2015 11:36am | Post# 33

Lots of Greek being spoken for a new thread. What is a MM? What is a half price? Thanks
You've produced sooooo many posts and you have no clue what is the meaning of one of the most popular abbreviations in the industry?.. pleeeeassse

traderathome May 21, 2015 11:36am | Post# 34

2 Attachment(s)
How the Market Works: EURUSD

The H1 chart shows a minor double bottom yesterday, which is probably not very significant. But we can see before it there was consolidation below the half number level. Now that could be buying to close shorts. Everything afterwards might be part and parcel to the MMs completing the closing of their own shorts and then working the price up and down to create liquidity for filling SM long orders, also below the half number level.

You can see there is plenty of time left for the MMs to work at this. The next EUR high impact is 16+ hours away. The trio of USD high impacts is 20+ hours away. We might get some valid clues in the next Asian session, as it is the last for the week and precedes all these coming releases. For now, I am reservedly bullish on this, but not sufficiently suicidal to venture into a trade on it yet.

There is no telling what antics the MMs will pull on "Freaky Friday", especially with so many high impact releases scheduled and one of them being another FOMC event late in the US session. If we see bullish signs now, it might be due to the MMs working the price in the way they know suckers money into the market on the long side, which might be the right side, but which might be too early because the MMs might be planning on stop hunting them late tomorrow.

The DAY chart suggests bulls, too, with that tighter spread candle yesterday putting in the low below the whole number with the highest volume in quite some time.

-tah
Click to Enlarge

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slimypips May 21, 2015 11:44am | Post# 35

Lots of Greek being spoken for a new thread. What is a MM? What is a half price? Thanks
MM is Market Maker, big bank, scumbag, thief, world class criminal etc.
"1/2 price" I am guess refer to or same as 1/2 number. Example MM building EU long positions below 1/2 number or 1.1150

Mauro-J May 21, 2015 12:01pm | Post# 36

1 Attachment(s)
EURUSD The H1 chart shows a minor double bottom yesterday, which is probably not very significant. But we can see before it there was consolidation below the half number level. Now that could be buying to close shorts. Everything afterwards might be part and parcel to the MMs completing the closing of their own shorts and then working the price up and down to create liquidity for filling SM long orders, also below the half number level. You can see there is plenty of time left for the MMs to work at this. The next EUR high impact is 16+ hours away....
Agree with you TAH. i have more clearly on bigger picture (H4 TF). Half number 1.11500 and whole number 1.11000 looks like as a key level for market consolidation. For me, the area is an important zone to be watched.

Click to Enlarge

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missH May 21, 2015 12:32pm | Post# 37

Dear Gals and Guys, Fellow Retail Traders All, This thread is titled "PVSRA". It stands for Price, Volume, S&R Analysis,......PVSRA. I have just opened this thread and much is to follow, but for now I have opened this to reserve the title name. I have much work to do here to get things set up. Please be patient as this first post will undergo many changes, including attachments. But, we are off to a start now, even though I may still be posting on the other thread for a while longer. This is a new beginning, but not just for me. It is for all of...
Great!!!!

bodring May 21, 2015 2:59pm | Post# 38

Hello, Tah. According to your comment on E/U, what should be the clues for buying?

traderathome May 21, 2015 3:38pm | Post# 39

Hello, Tah. According to your comment on E/U, what should be the clues for buying?
....what should be the clues for buying?

bodring,

PVSRA is a form of analysis. It takes into consideration all the three most important market metrics: price, volume, S&R. Price refers to everything about price, from individual candle configurations, group configurations, price action waves and major price patterns. Volume changes denote changes in interest. So, notable increases can give us clues as to what price levels are most popular, but to determine if for buying or if for selling we have to look at more. S&R knowledge is a must! How price behaves around key S&R, and how the volume changes around key S&R can give us more clues.

Do not expect a simple answer to your question. The market is not a simple place to make money. A lot of people have lost all their money learning this! This thread is about PVSRA. It is not "simple". But it is effective. If you want it, you have to learn it and you have to apply it continuously in your trading. Eventually your skill with it brings fruit. Nothing is "easy" about the market, especially developing the skills needed to take more money from it than it takes from you. Anyone who believes otherwise is a novice. Anyone who wants something that comes easy has no business trying their hand in the market.

Did you even bother to read Post #1 before asking the question?

This is a new thread. It is the text book for PVSRA. This text book will be written page by page, complete with text and illustrations, the quality of which is desired to be the highest, but will depend on the care and concern each person posting puts into their work here. In time there will be treatises on PVSRA and other aspects of the market, which will be in Post #1 or Post #1 will have links to them. We will all learn and improve as we build this text book, caring and sharing with others through our posts what we are doing, but more importantly why we are doing it.

Please see the registrar in the lobby to sign up for this class. There is no tuition, but you must bring your own computers,....the one in front of you and the one on sitting on your shoulders.

-tah

Fisher755 May 21, 2015 4:01pm | Post# 40

Multiple JPY High Imapct Releases Coming Yes, and all within the period from about 12 hours to 23 hours from now! I can only guess if the MMs will use them as a trigger to move the JPY pairs, but that might be the case. We should probably assume some kind of movement is planned by the MMs and start looking for clues. My first thought is that maybe this trio of releases might be the trigger for the JPY pairs to begin reversals. For example, mayby USDJPY will peak and drop. I really do not know, but I am watching for signs that the MMs might use the...
USDJPY Comment:
There might be a potential H&S formation on H1.
The price consolidating above the whole level- PVSRA indication for short.
The chart included in the old thread for now..


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