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-   -   Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/524601-billytt-die-happy-trading-ej)

billytt Jan 14, 2021 5:55am | Post# 55701

{quote} Hi Billy For days like this (Jan 12th) where high low is triggered 6 times leading to 5 counters of -26 pips x 5 =-130, would you have stopped after 3 counters? I remember reading somewhere your limit is 3 counters. If so, are the below steps correct? Trade 1 = Long Trade 2 = Short, Short Trade 3 = Long, Long Trade 4 = Short This would result in 3 counters locked at limbo -78 pips. Pardon me if I got it wrong.

Hi C, and welcome.
today , Cable 08-00 low broke and made +5 %.
Cable 00-00 4 hour range, high broke and still in motion.

you are correct, in the past i would of made a counter up to 3 times, but times are changing i will counter more, BUT you will find i then trade a different trigger.

originally it was 08-00 fail, trade the 00-00 range for instance.
What ever we do, we must watch the daily range.
Trade well.

billytt Jan 14, 2021 5:57am | Post# 55702

{quote} Hi Billy For days like this (Jan 12th, GU, 00-00 bar) where high low is triggered 6 times leading to 5 counters of -26 pips x 5 =-130, would you have stopped after 3 counters? I remember reading somewhere your limit is 3 counters. If so, are the below steps correct? Trade 1 = Long Trade 2 = Short, Short Trade 3 = Long, Long Trade 4 = Short This would result in 3 counters locked at limbo -78 pips. Pardon me if I got it wrong.
sorry, the 12th was ok too.,

Chroniclez Jan 14, 2021 6:12am | Post# 55703

{quote} sorry, the 12th was ok too.,
Sorry, it was the GU 00-00 on 13th. How many pips would you aim for?

Assuming 10 pips, you would have opened 3 counters before getting the 10 pips right?

Thank you.

Chroniclez Jan 14, 2021 6:15am | Post# 55704

{quote} Hi C, and welcome. today , Cable 08-00 low broke and made +5 %. Cable 00-00 4 hour range, high broke and still in motion. you are correct, in the past i would of made a counter up to 3 times, but times are changing i will counter more, BUT you will find i then trade a different trigger. originally it was 08-00 fail, trade the 00-00 range for instance. What ever we do, we must watch the daily range. Trade well.
Sorry Billy, just to clarify your sentence "originally it was 08-00 fail"

Do you mean originally you would only trade 00-00 bar to fix if 08-15 fail fails?

Or you trade whichever comes first without sequence?

billytt Jan 14, 2021 6:21am | Post# 55705

{quote} Sorry Billy, just to clarify your sentence "originally it was 08-00 fail" Do you mean originally you would only trade 00-00 bar to fix if 08-15 fail fails? Or you trade whichever comes first without sequence?

Story time. years ago i traded the e/j daily break, this involved me trading off a certain range after the trigger.
Then, i traded the a/u 04-00 4 hour bar. this too worked off a range after the trigger.
Then we got to the 08-00 break, all 3 pairs had the same principle, having a short trade range. Once it failed we trade off the next trigger OR wait until next day.

As i keep saying, due to Brexit and Mr Trump trading got easier as we have better consistent ranges.

billytt Jan 14, 2021 6:24am | Post# 55706

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{quote} Sorry, it was the GU 00-00 on 13th. How many pips would you aim for? Assuming 10 pips, you would have opened 3 counters before getting the 10 pips right? Thank you.
the 13th would of been ok, if price retraces we are allowed to close with a point or two if desired.
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i keep saying, WATCH THE DAILY RANGE.
see how much we have to play with, even with a minimal range.

Chroniclez Jan 14, 2021 6:37am | Post# 55707

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{quote} the 13th would of been ok, if price retraces we are allowed to close with a point or two if desired. {image} i keep saying, WATCH THE DAILY RANGE. see how much we have to play with, even with a minimal range.
Thanks Billy. The modest daily range that day was about 80 pips.

The daily range was hit after 5 counters.
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billytt Jan 14, 2021 6:44am | Post# 55708

{quote} Thanks Billy. The modest daily range that day was about 80 pips. The daily range was hit after 5 counters. {image}
Hi Bud, i seriously do not follow it?
Monday range was 85, Tue 166, Wed 89.
i use 70 range as an example in here FF.
If you are hunting a range and it doesnt happen, close with some profit. even 1 point.

i always choose a counter.

claudia1 Jan 14, 2021 8:44am | Post# 55709

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Chroniclez Jan 14, 2021 9:35am | Post# 55710

{quote} Hi Bud, i seriously do not follow it? Monday range was 85, Tue 166, Wed 89. i use 70 range as an example in here FF. If you are hunting a range and it doesnt happen, close with some profit. even 1 point. i always choose a counter.
Thanks billy. I might have gotten the number wrong.

lemercenaire Jan 14, 2021 1:00pm | Post# 55711

Keeping an eye on AU. See H1 and see a pull-back due?

lemercenaire Jan 14, 2021 4:32pm | Post# 55712

Keeping an eye on AU. See H1 and see a pull-back due?
AU attraction zones? How about 0.7773 to 0.7764 and 0.7744 to 0.7737?

I am looking at the 30-min chart for detail.

As always, we shall see.

Avery Jan 14, 2021 5:00pm | Post# 55713

{quote} They seem like good points on the face of it, but they are not too difficult to refute.
Thanks for your feedback.

Avery Jan 14, 2021 6:03pm | Post# 55714

{quote} RIGHT, LAST TIME I POST THIS. yesterday cable . i think Fagin spoke about the 50 line, price got to it and then retraced back up. which it does sometimes.(i said that). so now we have countering . i traded it down, then up ,then down at 10 point. ended up with 140 and i was finished around 15-30 if i remember. that excludes my 5% (actually it ended more ) at 140 per pip. i know it works, othger people know it works. As i said, this is the last time i post, saying it works. Study the fekkin charts, back test trades, MARKET MAKER MOVES...
I do not doubt that it works for you. I try to get clues how it can work for me too.

Where to find these feekin charts you talk about? Is that a user posting here?

Again, i never said anything is not working or can't work. I asked, if anyone can provide some example actually proving the advantage compared to using a stop loss.

You say stop loss is dead money for you, but actually all you do is paying twice the spread + negative swap to your broker for holding it.

This is fine if you can unwind the hedge/lock without having to open additional orders (new extra risk) by maybe perfect market timing of when to exit the negative side of it, then letting the positive side move in your favor or vice versa.

Best regards, and good evening to all.

claudia1 Jan 14, 2021 6:37pm | Post# 55715

Lem here's my Friday song a bit early - just watched the movie for the millionth time and it's still funny. Great song + one more. Your turn.


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Avery Jan 14, 2021 6:42pm | Post# 55716

Find your own strategy first with a +51% win rate and a +1.1 return and trade it for a year making tweaks as you go. (Claudia has given you some excellent pointers on this by the way and not staying up late isn't an excuse). Finally if you are trading real cash like you are; you are an idiot or an idiot with too much money which is worse. I mean this on the best terms.
Hello Fagin. Thanks for your great answer. I do trade the BillyBar actively every morning for almost half an year. I have great success with it and i do not have a problem with being disciplined and stop trading once reached my +5. My overall return for 7 months is 15-20%/month on average. I trade 3-5 lots a position.

I don't see why i am an idiot, i would never trade any money i could not easily afford to lose.

I do not like longer-term swing trading as it simply doesn't fit my personality as you mentioned.

However what is annoying to me is that without countering and then having it fixed (i have no freaking clue what i am doing here but it works so far, more or less good) those +5 wins get eaten up by just a few fails.

To be honest most of my returns here came from what i would like to call "lucky fixing trades". It could easily gone the other way... So last is what worries me as i still don't have a real systematical approach on how to fix the fails, otherwise if doing +5 Points in the morning, then shutting down my computer and calling it a day is absolute no problem for me.

I looked at what Claudia did post but instead of the simple trigger/s. She said to go with 1:3 risk/reward, i should be fine. I don't like the concept of risk/reward. I think its weak, as the reward part can't be planned in advance and therefor if you might have a month not hitting the average reward on each trade you thought of, this might then makes the hole thing unprofitable in the end again.

I can trade the london/ny session but i would prefer only having to look at a chart for the first hours of the london session.

Always being available if you need to, well... I am a young father and still operating other businesses than trading, so staying awake all night is no real option

If Billy's and mine stats as well say, the BillyBar hits +5 for 60-70% on average at least nearly half of my 20 trading days a month (10) then i do at least know half of my month i am doing good. Still means nothing if 3-4 failed trades will at a 20-30 Points range then will leave me at 0 or even -10,20,30% in the end (not having it "fixed").

I am really sick of system hopping btw. I also don't need to make hundreds of points each day. If i can do 5 points every day consistently, i then hit it hard and i am done. Time is more important to me than making a lot of points. I would simply add more money in my trading account if this is what is needed then. I calculate in percentages, so if 5% a month on 100k isn't enough, add another 100k and 5% is more...

kind regards.

claudia1 Jan 14, 2021 6:59pm | Post# 55717

{quote} Hello Fagin. Thanks for your great answer. I do trade the BillyBar actively every morning for almost half an year. I have great success with it and i do not have a problem with being disciplined and stop trading once reached my +5. My overall return for 7 months is 15-20%/month on average. I trade 3-5 lots a position. I don't see why i am an idiot, i would never trade any money i could not easily afford to lose. I do not like longer-term swing trading as it simply doesn't fit my personality as you mentioned. However what is annoying to me...
Then you do have a lot to learn. I desk traded for a large bank for some years and we where taught risk/reward was the key in this game. Money management. If you know different please advise.

Avery Jan 14, 2021 7:12pm | Post# 55718

{quote} Then you do have a lot to learn. I desk traded for a large bank for some years and we where taught risk/reward was the key in this game. Money management. If you know different please advise.
Well looking at what happened with the financial crisis and what deutsche bank shares are about, i wouldn't trust too much in what they are teaching there..

I didn't want to say risk/reward is not good. Just like if you lets say risk 1000 to make 3000 but then every second trade turns against you at 2800, do you then take profit even before reaching 3000, then on what decision? Or say, well i have my risk/reward proven strategy, i let it run to zero again and getting stopped out for nothing even if i could have made 2800?

I mean if such strategy is proven, risk/reward might be great, but then it would/should be easy as letting a robot trade such system and you soon would be swimming in the money.

claudia1 Jan 14, 2021 7:19pm | Post# 55719

{quote} Well looking at what happened with the financial crisis and what deutsche bank shares are about, i wouldn't trust too much in what they are teaching there.. I didn't want to say risk/reward is not good. Just like if you lets say risk 1000 to make 3000 but then every second trade turns against you at 2800, do you then take profit even before reaching 3000, then on what decision? Or say, well i have my risk/reward proven strategy, i let it run to zero again and getting stopped out for nothing even if i could have made 2800? I mean if such...
Ok DB are hopeless we earned 6 figures a year following a useless strategy. Ex boss now a senior trader at UBS but we know nothing leave it to you. All you do is criticise that's easy - come up with something positive for once. I

lemercenaire Jan 14, 2021 7:35pm | Post# 55720

Lem here's my Friday song a bit early - just watched the movie for the millionth time and it's still funny. Great song + one more. Your turn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqGWOxu_H4I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbMI4imWFzY
How about this?

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