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Sal.Vi May 10, 2015 4:04pm | Post# 41

3 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the current situation of ETF of Gold Miners.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short-term up-date of the current graphical situation of some main ETF on Gold Miners.
Charts are in linear & h4 ema-format, with a Transformed Ichimoku and an M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average, a combination of the sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema (yellow-orange lines).
See also these previous posts on Gold (#1; #2; #3; #4; #5).

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Main Graphical Elements.
Prices are below M/10, and for this, there is again a main bearish pressure on this sector.
Moreover, prices are about on Trasformed Ichimoku, and for this, there is not a true signal.
Some (but not all) ETF shows their MACD & TRIX with interesting ascending tops.

☒ Main Graphical Elements.
There are only weak and not completed elements for a possible reversal of this sector.

☒ References.
#1.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about Gold vs. other currencies, vs. Platinum and Silver, and in CPI-adjusted format. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268503133
#2.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the indicator ''US Gov.Bond 30y'' vs. ''Gold spot'': the graphical pyramid was completed? - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267642744
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about some indicators of Gold Miners Index. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267327026
#4.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the graphical structures of Gold [Au]. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266402749
#5.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the qualitative effects of US and Japanese Quantitative Easings on Dollar, Euro, Yen and Gold. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271907415

☒ Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi May 14, 2015 11:13am | Post# 42

1 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the current situation of NYSE World Leaders Index.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an up-date of the current graphical situation of the NYSE World Leaders Index.
Charts are linear, and in monthly & weekly ema-format, with a Transformed Ichimoku and an M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average, a combination of the sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema (yellow-orange lines).

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Main Graphical Elements.
The long-term ema array and Ichimoku are in bullish status.
Curve is again inside the ascending white channel (confirmed bullish structure).
Current levels are according to the graphical target of the previous post Feb.2012.
Current levels are well above the tops of 1999-2000 (see actual set-up with some main ema: gray area).
Apex structure shows a Graphcal Contest in action, with possible price-targets in blue on the dx axis.

☒ References.
❖ Previous structural studies: Aug.2011 -- Aug.2011 -- Feb.2012 -- Apr.2013.
❖ Previous short reviews: Oct.2011 -- Sep.2012 -- Aug.2012 -- Oct.2012 -- Apr.2013.
❖ NYSE W.L.I.: Feb.2012.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg
Size: 1.6 MB

Sal.Vi May 14, 2015 4:29pm | Post# 43

1 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the US Breadth Indicators: Absolute Breadth Indicator.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short view on the Absolute Breadth Indicator.
Charts is linear and in monthly ema-format, with M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average, a combination of the sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema (yellow-orange lines).
Absolute Breadth Indicator is about contrarian vs. U.S. stocks-market, and it is based on the absolute value of the advances minus declines on the NYSE (last 5 days), and the total number of NYSE stocks.
The yellow horizontal double levels is a key-zone where there are some main market-reversals (see in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012).

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Main Graphical Elements.
Current low levels shows some divergences from 2013 (blue arc), and this is a local dangerous sign; see also the behaviour of curve on the red descending lines.
The global structure of curve shows a confirmed bullish trend of the underlyings:
curve below yellow lines;
decreasing array;
M/10 in bearish status with new lows;
current values below the blue ascending lines.
A continuation-bear below the double yellow line, is very important to the stability of current bulish trend of underlyings.
It is very important a comparative study of others breadth indicators on US stock market.

☒ References.
July.2012 -- July.2011.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi May 16, 2015 2:53pm | Post# 44

3 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the Breadth Indicators of US stock market: NYSE stocks above its 200 daily simple moving average.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the breadth indicators of US stock market (#1), in order to study the actual internal situation of US benchmarks. The present aim is to shows the current chart structure of the breadth indicator '''% of NYSE Stocks above its 200 daily simple moving average''' (previous posts: July.2012; Sep.2012; Nov.2012).
There are two chart providers: FreeStockCharts (monthly ema-format), with an M/10 indicator; StockCharts (daily long-term ema-format).
Moreover there is also a personal ratio indicator (StockCharts) obtained from 50 vs. 200 ''NYSE Stocks above its moving average'', in order to search points of stress of these breadth elements of US stock market; this ratio indicator is about contrarian to underlyings and is in linear & semilog. scale.
M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average, is a combination of the following curve (yellow-orange lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ The monthly indicator shows an interesting decreasing array during top formations (see also the lows from 2012); moreover in 2014 the indicator goes below the zero-line, and now it is below its M/10. These divergences suggests that the bull is losing its quality since 2012.
✔ The chart structure of the daily indicators (both 50 and 200) are very similar to previous curve.
✔ The ratio curve do not shows stress event as in 2002/2003, 2011/2012 and particularly in 2009, but it is in ascending array and in the zone of alert (gray band). An important divergence on lows is present (post 2010).

☒ Notes.
According to above indicator, the US stock market shows some signs of decreasing (internal) strength of the current bullish structure, confirming the signs showed by Absolute Breadth Indicator (#1). Specifically, it can be stated, that the US stock market is progressively loosing resilience. NYSE index is in both structural and local bullish trend, but there are some important signs of resilience-loss.
These data are still preliminary, and must be associated with those coming from other breandth indicators; moreover we also have to study the structure of the option indicators. Compare these preliminar results with the statistical data of the posts #2 & #3.

☒ References.
#1.- Absolute Breadth Indicator. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8263541#post8263541
#2.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. GANN's January rule and December low rule for stock markets. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274635811
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the seasonal, president and decade cycles of US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and German DAX Index. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274601438

Chart sources.
FreeStockCharts; StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
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Sal.Vi May 17, 2015 6:26am | Post# 45

1 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the Breadth Indicators of US stock market: NYSE TRIN indicator.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the breadth indicators of US stock market (#1; #2), in order to study the actual internal situation of US benchmarks. The present aim is to shows the current chart structure of the breadth indicator '''NYSE TRIN Indicator o Arm Index''' (previous posts: Sep.2011; Aug.2011; Feb.2011), an indicator about contrarian to main trend of underlyings.
There are two chart providers: FreeStockCharts (monthly ema-format) with an M/10 indicator; StockCharts (daily long-term ema-format). A semilog. scale of prices has used.
Moreover there is also a personal ratio indicator (StockCharts) obtained from TICK vs. TRIN ''NYSE Indicators'', in order to search points of stress of these breadth elements of US stock market; this ratio indicator is about contrarian to underlyings and is in semilog. scale.
M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average, is a combination of the following curve (yellow-orange lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ TRIN charts shows some interesting divergences between pre-crisis of 2007-2008 vs. current lows.
✔ TRIN values 2013-2014-2015 shows ascending pattern.
✔ TRIN monthly is below the green double lines, a stress benchmark for this indicator, but with an important test in 2014.
✔ The ratio curve shows a complete piramyd-like structure, with full re-test of previous low of 2000 (see the different behaviours of the 3 ema); also this indicator shows a local ascending pattern.

☒ Notes.
According to above indicators, the US stock market shows some signs of decreasing (internal) strength of the current bullish structure, confirming the signs showed by previous Breadth Indicators (#1; #2). NYSE index is in both structural and local bullish trend, but there are some interesting signs of resilience-loss.
These data are still preliminary, and must be associated with those coming from other breandth indicators; moreover we also have to study the structure of the option indicators. Compare these preliminar results with the statistical data of the posts #3 & #4.

☒ References.
#1.- Absolute Breadth Indicator. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8263541#post826354 1
#2.- NYSE stocks above its 200 daily simple moving average. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8266666#post8266666
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. GANN's January rule and December low rule for stock markets. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274635811
#4.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the seasonal, president and decade cycles of US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and German DAX Index. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274601438

Chart sources.
FreeStockCharts; StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg
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Sal.Vi May 18, 2015 6:09am | Post# 46

5 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the Breadth Indicators of US stock market, based on New High & Low, Volume UP & Down, Issues Advance & Decline.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the breadth indicators of US stock market (#1; #2; #5), in order to study the actual internal situation of US stock benchmarks. The present aim is to shows the current chart structure of some breadth indicators (also personal derived) based on: New High & Low; Volume UP & Down; Issue Advance & Decline.
Charts are in price semilog. scale, and in daily long-term ema-format.
According to spike of 2008/2009 you can see if the curve is contrarian or in-phase vs. underlyngs, in order to search/recognize the divergences.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ All curves shows some divergences vs. underlying tops & lows; these divergences may be local (2013 to now) or more importants (2010 to now).

☒ Notes.
According to above curves and the previous posts (#1; #2; #5), the US stock market shows some signs of decreasing (internal) strength of the current bullish structure, with some interesting signs of resilience-loss; but, actual NYSE index is in both structural and local bullish trend.
These data will be completed with Summation Index & Bullish % on US benchmarks.
Compare these preliminar results with the statistical data of the posts #3 & #4.

☒ References.
#1.- Absolute Breadth Indicator. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8263541#post826354 1
#2.- NYSE stocks above its 200 daily simple moving average. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8266666#post826666 6
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. GANN's January rule and December low rule for stock markets. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274635811
#4.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the seasonal, president and decade cycles of US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and German DAX Index. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274601438
#5.- NYSE TRIN indicator. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8267033#post8267033

Chart sources.
StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Click to Enlarge

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Sal.Vi May 18, 2015 10:44am | Post# 47

1 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the statistical correlation between Gold (Au) vs. US TBond 10 year (price).

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is the chart (frame weekly: 5y; scale: linear; format: weekly close) of the visual and statistical correlation between Gold vs. US TBond 10y (see also #1). Statistical Correlation is performed by StockCharts.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ See attached chart.

☒ References.
#1.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the indicator ''US Gov.Bond 30y'' vs. ''Gold spot'': the graphical pyramid was completed? - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/267642744

Chart sources.
StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg
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Sal.Vi May 20, 2015 12:39pm | Post# 48

2 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the Breadth Indicators of US stock market, based on some Bullish Percent Indexes.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the breadth indicators of US stock market (#1; #2; #5; #6), in order to study the actual internal situation of US stock benchmarks.
The present aim is to shows the current chart structure of some breadth indicators (also personal derived: Ratio) based on Bullish Percent Indexes (previous posts: Nov.2012 -- July.2012).
Charts are in price linear scale, and in daily long-term ema-format.
These indicators are in-phase vs. underlyings.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ All curves, both Bullish % and Ratio Indicators, shows some divergences vs. underlying tops & lows; these divergences may be local or more importants in time.
Moreover these divergences shows a behaviour very similar to previous bear start phases on underlyings.

☒ Notes.
Bullish Percent curves and its Ratios are in according to previous posts (#1; #2; #5; #6): the US stock market shows some signs of decreasing (internal) strength of the current bullish structure, with some interesting signs of resilience-loss.
There are not bear signals on NYSE/S&P/Nasdaq benchmarks (again in structural and local bullish trend), but some breadth signs but some breadth signs require care and caution to management of log positions.
These data will be completed with Summation Indexes on US benchmarks.
Compare these results with the statistical data of the posts #3 & #4.

☒ References.
#1.- Absolute Breadth Indicator. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8263541#post826354 1
#2.- NYSE stocks above its 200 daily simple moving average. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8266666#post826666 6
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. GANN's January rule and December low rule for stock markets. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274635811
#4.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the seasonal, president and decade cycles of US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and German DAX Index. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274601438
#5.- NYSE TRIN indicator. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8267033#post826703 3
#6.- Breadth Indicators of US stock market, based on New High & Low, Volume UP & Down, Issues Advance & Decline. - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post8268320

Chart sources.
StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg
Size: 1.2 MB
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Sal.Vi May 24, 2015 5:40pm | Post# 49

6 Attachment(s)

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀


Notes and charts about the loss of resilience of US stock market, based on some breadth indicators.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the breadth indicators of US stock market (#1; #2; #5; #6; #7), in order to study the actual internal situation of US stock benchmarks.
The present aim is to shows the current chart structure of some Summation Indicators (also personal derived indicators as Ratio), based on the following spread: ''advances minus decliners (net advances) for a 19-day exponential moving average period'' vs. '''39-day exponential moving average period'' [see previous posts: Feb.2011; Feb.2011; Feb.2011 (personal curves); June.2012; July.2012; Sep.2013 (vs. volatility ind.); Apr.2014]. These indicators are in-phase vs. underlyings.
On monthly charts there are some horizontal colored-levels as personal lines in order to recognize the key-points of indicator.
✔ The 0-line is the local driver between negative (0 <) vs. positive (> 0) impact on underlyings.
✔ Secondary legs of indicator, inpact on the main horizontal levels green (see the lows of indicators about on binary green) and white.
✔ Extreme and stressed levels of indicator are showed by yellow (double) and red/blue lines.
✔ Moreover there is an M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average (see attached monthly chart), a combination of the following curve (yellow-orange lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.
The ratio (Total Market Summation Indicator at numerator) derived indicators are the followings (only in daily frame):
✔ ARM Index Indicator of NYSE or NYSE TRIN;
✔ CBOE Put/Call Indicator;
✔ CBOE Volatility Indicator of S&P500 (1mo.) or VIX;
✔ TED Spread Indicator.
For chart formats see the attached pics.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements of Monthly Summation Ind.
✔ A giant and white ascending rectangle is showed (markers: 1987-top; 1998-low), with superimposed some descending red structural lines.
✔ The summation, after the triple historical tops of 2009-2010, goes on green-band in mid-2010 for a new re-start of bull toward a new historical top in 2012; this event was followed by an about vertical MeltDown of indicator to the ''V'' lows of the curve history until that moment, well below the double green levels.
✔ From 2008 historical low, the main trend is in ascending-array until to 2013 & 2014 SellOff. In 2014 there was the break of the zero-line, the M/10 and of white rectangle, with an important sequence of decreasing tops (see: 2012; 2013; 2014) and lows (2010 to 2014 !!!).
✔ Current graphical structure of this monthly Summation on NYSE, shows important and critical divergences vs. underlyings, with also negative values in 2015.
✔ Actual ema structure shows a bearish array in progress.
✔ The current behaviour of this Summation (after 2010 for lows and after 2012 for tops) shows structural convergences with the previous phases 1997-2000 and 2004-2007.

☒ Graphical Elements of Daily Summation Ind.
✔ Total Market - Tops since 2009/2010 shows a decreasing behaviour, with a slope more negative from 2013.
Lows from 2009 are ascending, but 2012 vs. 2014 are about in-line (circled levels), and 2013 > 2014.
Current values are above zero-line, but ema-array shows a possible bearish reversal-knot in progress.
Weekly MACD confirms the behavior of the above indicator.
✔ NYSE - Tops since 2009/2010 shows a decreasing behaviour until now, with a slope more negative from 2014.
Lows from 2009 are ascending, but 2012 vs. 2014 are about in-line (circled levels), and 2013 > 2014.
Current values are above zero-line, but ema-array shows a possible bearish reversal-knot in progress.
Weekly MACD confirms the behavior of the above indicator, but lows of 2014 is about in-line vs. lows of 2010 !!!
✔ S&P500 - Tops since 2013 shows an hard decreasing behaviour until now.
Lows from 2009 are ascending, but 2013 > 2014.
Current values are above zero-line, but there is a local important sell sign from the triple ema.
Weekly MACD confirms the behavior of the above indicator, but decreasing tops starts from 2009 and also from 2003.
✔ Nasdaq - Tops since 2013 shows an hard decreasing behaviour until now.
Lows from 2009 are ascending, but 2013 > 2014.
Current values are a little above zero-line, and ema-array are in bullish-array.
Weekly MACD confirms the behavior of the above indicator, but decreasing tops starts from 2009 and lows of 2012 > 2014 !!!
✔ The current behaviour of these Summations, shows structural convergences with the previous phase 2004-2007.

☒ Graphical Elements of Ratio Summation Ind.
✔ Summation vs. Put/Call, TRIN, TED spread - Tops since 2009/2010 shows a decreasing behaviour, with a slope more negative from 2013-2014.
Lows from 2009 are ascending, but 2012 vs. 2014 are about in-line or a little decreasing (circled levels), and 2013 > 2014.
Current ema-array shows a possible bearish reversal-knot in progress.
✔ Summation vs. VIX - Tops since 2013 shows a decreasing behaviour.
Lows from 20082009 are ascending, but 2012 vs. 2014 are about in-line (circled levels), and 2013 > 2014.
Current ema-array shows a possible bearish reversal-knot in progress.
✔ The current behaviour of these Ratio Summations, shows structural convergences with the previous phase 2004-2007.

☒ Notes.
All the Summation curves shows divergences in top & low positions vs. US stock market. This is in according to an internal strength-decreasing of the current bullish structure of US stock market. This strength-decreasing start from 2010 about, but there is an acceleration from 2013, as also supported by the lows.
The current behaviour of these curve, shows structural convergences with the previous phase 2004-2007, during the top formation on US stocks.
These indicators do not shows an imminent KO of the stock market, but shows a progressive loss of market resilence to next bearish phases.
Moreover these data are according to breadth data from Point&Figure Indicators (Bullish%: #7), from advance-decline and volume indicators (#6; #5; #1), and also from 200 day moving average position for all market.
A continuous degradation of these breadth indicators, well be the start of an important decrease of US stock market values, because of loss of internal resilience.
Compare these results with the statistical data of the posts #3 & #4.

☒ References.
#1.- Absolute Breadth Indicator. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8263541#post8263541
#2.- NYSE stocks above its 200 daily simple moving average. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8266666#post8266666
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. GANN's January rule and December low rule for stock markets. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274635811
#4.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the seasonal, president and decade cycles of US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and German DAX Index. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274601438
#5.- NYSE TRIN indicator. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8267033#post826703 3
#6.- Breadth Indicators of US stock market, based on New High & Low, Volume UP & Down, Issues Advance & Decline. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8268320#post8268320
#7.- Breadth Indicators of US stock market, based on some Bullish Percent Indexes. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8274296#post8274296

Chart sources.
FreeStockCharts; StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi May 29, 2015 5:10am | Post# 50

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By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401



Notes and charts about the statistical correlation between Gold (Au) vs. AUDUSD/USDJPY.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is the chart (frame weekly: 5y; scale: linear; format: weekly close) of the visual and statistical correlation between Gold vs. the ratio between two ForEx crosses: ( Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar ) vs. ( US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen ), or AUDUSD/USDJPY (see previous post on Gold correlations: #1; #2).
Statistical Correlation is performed by StockCharts.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ See attached chart.
See also some previous posts on Gold Miners (#3), long term chart structures (#4), QE effects (#5), and CPI-adjusted curve (#6).

☒ References.
#1.- Statistical correlation between Gold (Au) vs. US TBond 10 year. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8268837#post8268837
#2.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the indicator ''US Gov.Bond 30y'' vs. ''Gold spot'': the graphical pyramid was completed? - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/267642744
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about some indicators of Gold Miners Index. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267327026
#4.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the graphical structures of Gold [Au]. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266402749
#5.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the qualitative effects of US and Japanese Quantitative Easings on Dollar, Euro, Yen and Gold. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271907415
#6.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about Gold vs. other currencies, vs. Platinum and Silver, and in CPI-adjusted format. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268503133

Chart sources.
StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi May 31, 2015 6:51am | Post# 51

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Notes and charts about the short term graphical structure of the Sugar future.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an interesting chart (frame daily: 6mo.; scale: linear; format: candles) structure of the Sugar future.
This structure may be very important for a short term evolution of the commodity.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ March 2015 (yellow candles) & April 2015 are an inside monthly figure on candle chart, with a preliminar break of the base-level of this inside.
The price-area is ~0.0195 (yellow column), with a possible bearish target of ~0.0995.
There will be a stop of this bearish figure only with prices well above the mid-level of the March candle (mid-level: ~0.129).

☒ References.

Chart sources.
StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi Jun 5, 2015 5:07am | Post# 52

1 Attachment(s)

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about the historical curve of Gold (Au) vs. Palladium (Pd) ratio.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an interesting and not up-dated chart of the ratio between Gold (Au) vs. Palladium (Pd), in order to complete a next post on Gold metal ratios (see other posts on Gold: #1-#7).

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ See the attached chart.

☒ References.
#1.- Statistical correlation between Gold (Au) vs. US TBond 10 year. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8268837#post826883 7
#2.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the indicator ''US Gov.Bond 30y'' vs. ''Gold spot'': the graphical pyramid was completed? -
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/267642744
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about some indicators of Gold Miners Index. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267327026
#4.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the graphical structures of Gold [Au]. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266402749
#5.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the qualitative effects of US and Japanese Quantitative Easings on Dollar, Euro, Yen and Gold. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271907415
#6.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about Gold vs. other currencies, vs. Platinum and Silver, and in CPI-adjusted format. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268503133

#7.- Statistical correlation between Gold (Au) vs. AUDUSD/USDJPY. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8291325#post8291325

Chart sources.
ShareLynx.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi Jun 8, 2015 12:52pm | Post# 53

6 Attachment(s)

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about the ratio indicators of Gold (Au) vs. some precious and industrial metals: Platinum (Pt), Silver (Ag), Palladium (Pd), Copper (Cu), Aluminium (Al), Lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn).

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the ratio curves of GOLD (Au) vs other metals, both precious and industrials, as Platinum (Pt), Silver (Ag), Palladium (Pd), Copper (Cu), Aluminium (Al), Lead (Pd), Zinc (Zn). Moreover there is also a ratio curve between Precious Metals vs. Industrial Metals (Bloomberg benchmarks).
The present aim is to shows the current macro-economic situation, according to values of these ratios.
Moreover there is a comparative evaluations of current levels vs. previous key-levels.
These curves are usually contrarians to global macro-economic status, and therefore to the main trend of the global stock. market
Infact the Gold evaluation (see chart structures: #4; #6) and its industrial sector (mining & exploration companies: #3) are very important information-sources of the current macro-economic status of global economy, as also the possible correlations with Bonds and ForEx crosses (#2; #1; #7).
All these data must be analyzed considering the tsunami of liquidity (#5; #8) that was present and continues to be present in global financial markets (see considerations for NYSE Margin Debt and P/E curves: #9).
For chart formats see the attached IMG.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔1✔ Gold vs. Platinum (past cup structures are colored and shows price-targets with bars of same color).
✔1.1✔ The main trend of this ratio is ascending, as we can see from the secular- and the 1980- charts.
✔1.2✔ LIn 2008-2009 there was an important bullish breaks of two key trend lines, with the stop of secondary descending trend and a restart of the secular ascending trend.
✔1.3✔ Levels of 2011-2012 are well above the previous tops of 2002/2003, 2008/2009, to ''90 decade (crisis phases), and are about in-line with the 4 main secular tops (exc.: 1982). The local structure 2014-2015 shows an impressive divergence vs. evolution of used underlyings.
✔1.4✔ Main ema are in bullish-array.

✔2✔ Gold vs. Silver (post key bottoms/tops are in good matching vs. tops/bottoms of US equity).
✔2.1✔ Trend from ''70 decade is bullish, but trend from the historical top of 1991 is bearish and inside a great descending rectangle.
✔2.2✔ In 2013 there was the bullish breaks of this great rectangle, with an important bullish leg in action from 2011, in divergence vs. evolution of used underlyings.
✔2.3✔ Current levels are about in-line with tops of 2008/2009, 2003, 1987 (crisis phases), in hard divergence vs. used underlyings; moreover actual values are well above the mid-level of the great gray area (see triangle markers) !!!
✔2.4✔ Main ema are in bullish-array.

✔3✔ Gold vs. Palladium.
✔3.1✔ The main trend of this ratio is descending, as we can see from the 1980- & 1975- charts (#10), but in 2009 there was an incredible top of ratio, with a first stop of bear trend. This top is well above the previous levels of 2002-2003, and above the top area of ''80-''90 decade except the historical level of 1982.
✔3.2✔ Current levels are well below two mid-lines of two importants chart structures (red & yellow area), and this is in-phase with used underlyings, but there is again a great gap between 2000 values vs. current values.
✔3.3✔ Main ema are in bearish-array with a local attempt of reversal knot.
✔3.4✔ The morphology of Pt/Pd curve shows a big side-trend from 1985 (very similar to Au/Pd), with a first part in bearish evolution (white channel), a second part with a big reversal (see lows of 2000 and next historical top of 2009 about), and a final part in bearish evolution, with current levels well above the previous lows.

✔4✔ Gold vs. Copper.
✔4.1✔ The main trend of this ratio is descending, as we can see from the 1980-chart, but in 2008 (start from key lows of 2006) there was an incredible top of ratio, with a big stop of bear trend.
✔4.2✔ The top of 2009 is well above the previous levels of 2002-2003, and above the top area of ''90 decade, except the historical double tops of ''80 decade (gray area).
✔4.3✔ Current levels are well above two mid-lines of two importants chart structures (red & yellow area), and this is in divergence with used underlyings; moreover there is a giant gap between 2006 values vs. current values.
✔4.4✔ Main ema are in bullish-array with an attempt of reversal knot.

✔5✔ Gold vs. Aluminium & Zinc.
✔5.1✔ The main trend of these two ratios are ascending from the key lows of 2006.
✔5.2✔ Current levels are in descending action, but again above the lows of 2009 (see horizontal lines).
✔5.3✔ Actual values of Al-ratio are about in-line vs. previous top of 2009 !!!
✔5.4✔ Actual values of Zn-ratio are well below the 2009-tops.

✔6✔ Gold vs. Lead.
✔6.1✔ The main trend of this ratio is descending from the key two-tops of ''80 & ''90.
✔6.2✔ Current levels are in descending action and below the triple tops area 2002-2008-2011, but again above the lows of 2010 (see horizontal lines = mid level of bottom/top 2007/2008).

✔7✔ Precious vs. Industrials.
✔7.1✔ The main trend of this ratio is ascending from the key low of 2007 toward the top of 2012 of the 1991-chart !!!
✔7.2✔ Current values are in bearish array, but the tops of 2009 and 2012 are in ascending array and, for this, in hard divergence vs. used underlyings.
✔7.3✔ Current values are well above previous top zone of 2003, and about in-line with the key tops of 2009 and 1993-1994 (hard divergence vs. used underlyings).

☒ Comments.
According to the above charts, we have the following elements:
✔Au/Pt is very negative for financial markets, because of its very bullish status of curve;
✔Au vs. Ag, Cu, Al, Zn curves shows some important negative elements vs. financial markets;
✔Precious metals strength is much greater than strength of industrial metals, and also this graphical element is divergent vs. used underlyings;
✔Au/Pd shows a very positive curve for financial markets, with important bearish evolution of its chart. Pd also shows a strength much greater than Pt. However there is still a big gap between actual values vs. chart lows of 2000-2001.
According to previous curve levels, these indicators shows a very dangerous macroeconomic status of financial markets. Infact, from 2009, the main stock benchmarks are in full bullish status (except some European countries), in hard divergences vs. the above Au ratios.
There are two alternative:
a.) stock market are at short distance from an imminent and important corrective phase;
b.) QE financial ecosystem has changed the reference values for these Au ratio indicators (see QE phases in #5).
The alternative ''b'' allows an interesting theoretical-speculative consideration:
if there was not the QE systems, the current correct assessment of the equity markets, would be expressed by Au ratio indicators according to previous key levels of 2002-2003, 2007, 2008-2009.
Therefore, according to actual values of the used Au ratio indicators, we would have the following evaluations:
b.1.) Au/Pt: current stock evaluations well below 2009;
b.2.) Au/Ag & Au/Al: current stock evaluations a little above 2009;
b.3.) Au/Cu: current stock evaluations between 2003 lows & 2009 lows;
b.4.) Au/Pb & Au/Zn: current stock evaluations about at mid-level of 2007 tops & 2009 lows;
b.5.) Au/Pd: current stock evaluations a little above 2007;
b.6.) Pt/Pd: current stock evaluations well above 2007.
With the exclusion of Pd, there would be an evaluation of the stock markets about in line with 2009 lows. The evaluation of stocks will be lower than in 2009, when we consider more reliable Au/Pt as indicator; the evaluation will be a little higher than in 2009, when we consider more reliable the ratios Au vs. Ag, Al, Cu, as indicator.
This excess of strength shown by Palladium is probably caused by the enlargement of its industrial use in replacing other PGM (#11) metals.

... Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag ... .
... Re Os Ir Pt Au ... .

☒ References.
#1.- Statistical correlation between Gold (Au) vs. US TBond 10 year. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8268837#post826883 7
#2.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the indicator ''US Gov.Bond 30y'' vs. ''Gold spot'': the graphical pyramid was completed? - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/267642744
#3.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about some indicators of Gold Miners Index. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267327026
#4.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the graphical structures of Gold [Au]. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266402749
#5.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the qualitative effects of US and Japanese Quantitative Easings on Dollar, Euro, Yen and Gold. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271907415
#6.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about Gold vs. other currencies, vs. Platinum and Silver, and in CPI-adjusted format. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268503133
#7.- Statistical correlation between Gold (Au) vs. AUDUSD/USDJPY. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8291325#post8291325
#8.- the ForEx BlackSwan of Swiss Franc (CHF), powered by Swiss National Bank in January 15, 2015, based on a qualitative analysis of CoT curves. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271137015
#9.- Some notes/charts about the NYSE Margin Debt curve. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/264557446
#10.- Historical curve of Gold (Au) vs. Palladium (Pd) ratio. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8307328#post8307328
#11.- Platinum Group Metals. -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platinum_group_metals

Chart sources.
StockCharts; InfoMines.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi Jun 17, 2015 9:21am | Post# 54

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By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about the lease rate indicators of Gold (Au) in Autumn 2014.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short-term chart about the lease indicators of Gold (Au) during the last months o 2014.
Leasing rates (4 frames: 1mo; 3mo; 6mo; 12mo) are liquidity indicators of underlying metal very similar to Ted Spread.
See also the previous posts about Gold [#1], its correlation with Quantitative Easings [#2] and its ratio indicators [#3].

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ In Autumn 2014 the 4 curves of lease rates of Gold shows an interesting local top, well above the previous levels of the chart.
This is an important, but local, sign of liquidity stress inside the Gold market.
It is very important to compare the 2014 spike with the previous liquidity stress on Gold, in order to evaluates the current low levesl of the yellow metal in 2015.

☒ References.
#1.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the graphical structures of Gold [Au]. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266402749
#2.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the qualitative effects of US and Japanese Quantitative Easings on Dollar, Euro, Yen and Gold. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271907415
#3.- Ratio indicators of Gold (Au) vs. some precious and industrial metals: Platinum (Pt), Silver (Ag), Palladium (Pd), Copper (Cu), Aluminium (Al), Lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn).- http://www.researchgate.net/publication/277889956


Chart sources.
Kitco.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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manchester99 Jun 17, 2015 12:11pm | Post# 55

i need ur help :
in this sentence : "The average fund manager has difficulty in outperforming the Index"
does this mean that the average fund manager has difficulty making his performance outperforming ? or does it mean that average fund manager has difficulty choosing the outperforming index ?

Sal.Vi Jun 20, 2015 7:29am | Post# 56

3 Attachment(s)

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about the comparation of lease rate indicators of Gold (Au) in Autumn 2014 vs. previous top events.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are three charts about the lease rate indicators of Gold (Au).
These indicators (4 curves at 1, 3, 6, 12 mo.; 3 time frames) are very interesting because of their violent (contrarian) reactivity to liquidity crisis-stress of Gold. Infact, the lease rate indicators have a behaviour like to Ted Spread.
An interesting spike was recently reported for the month of November 2014 [#4]
See also the previous posts about Gold [#1], its correlation with Quantitative Easings [#2] and its ratio indicators [#3].

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (
charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (
charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ The lease rate spike there was in November-December 2014.
✔ The fast curves shows a more than 2X tops vs. 2y of curves; the slow curves instead shows a tops about in-line with the 2y top-levels.
✔ In 2008 the spike was complete (all 4 curves) and more important, with values about 4X vs. Autumn-2014 spike.
✔ An historical view of this recent spike is very interesting, in order to shows the little stress event of Autumn-2014 vs. 2008 ed also the little stress event of 2008 vs. the previous events of ''90 & ''00 decades.

Is this a first (but not conclusive) signal of a key-bottom on Gold spot?

☒ References.
#1.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the graphical structures of Gold [Au]. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266402749
#2.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the qualitative effects of US and Japanese Quantitative Easings on Dollar, Euro, Yen and Gold. -
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271907415
#3.- Ratio indicators of Gold (Au) vs. some precious and industrial metals: Platinum (Pt), Silver (Ag), Palladium (Pd), Copper (Cu), Aluminium (Al), Lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn).- http://www.researchgate.net/publication/277889956

#4.- Lease rate indicators of Gold (Au) in Autumn 2014. -
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8331539#post8331539

☒ Chart sources.
Kitco.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
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Sal.Vi Jun 25, 2015 9:39am | Post# 57

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♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about the Italian Labor Tax and Contributions as Percent of Commercial Profits.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some comparative charts about the Labor Tax and Contributions as Percent of Commercial Profits, focussed on Italy. Labor tax and contributions is the amount of taxes and mandatory contributions on labor paid by the business.
This key-indicator has critical economic value in order to evaluates the competitiveness of a nation.
See previous posts on Italian job-market [#1].

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ The top of Labor Tax & Contributions is France, above the 50% level, with a ITA vs. FRA spread of -9% !!!
✔ Italy shows very high spreads vs. EU (+14%), Eu-Union (+16%), and vs. OECD H.I. (+20%).
✔ The spread ITA vs. average of 4 Euro nations used (FRA, GER, SPA, PORT) is +16%.
✔ Italy shows impressive high spreads vs. Switzerland (+25%) and U.K. (+32%), with an average spread of these two contries of +28.5%.

☒ Notes.
Labor Tax & Contributions of Italy is too high compared the main European competitors, hindering the internal labor market.
However, more data are needed on the Italian labor market to make conclusions.

☒ References.
#1.- Some notes/charts about the employment curves of Italy. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260334530

☒ Chart sources.
TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi Jul 4, 2015 7:22am | Post# 58

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♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about the Unemployment Rate Spread between Foreign-Born vs. Native-Born in some OECD Countries.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a slide of OECD, obtained from the recent key-work '''Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2015 [#3]'''.
In this slide there is the unemployment rate spread between foreign-born vs. native-born in some OECD countries, in order to complete a mini-review on some labor-curves of Italy vs. EuroArea (see these posts: #1, #2).

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ OECD shows a positive spreads of +2.9% (negative for foreign-born).
✔ Only six countries shows negative spreads (Slovak R., Poland*, Hungary*, USA*, Chile*, Israel*), and two shows near-zero positive spreads (Korea*, Australia*, New Zealand*).
✔ Monstre positive spreads are showed by Greece (+8.0% vs. OECD), Spain (+8.7% vs. OECD), Sweden (+6.8% vs. OECD).
✔ Italy shows a spreads about in-line (+4.3%) vs. EuroArea countries, but a little above the OECD average.
✔ The Italian spreads is similar to Germany spreads, and well below the France spreads; the average spreads of these two countries is +5.25%, well above the italian value.

☒ Notes.
EuroArea spreads shows values of foreign-born vs. native-born unemployment rate, well above the OECD average; 8/9 of best spreads for foreign-natives, are not-EuroZone countries(*).

☒ References.
#1.- Some notes/charts about the employment curves of Italy. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260334530
#2.- Notes and charts about the Italian Labor Tax and Contributions as Percent of Commercial Profits. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8346364#post8346364
#3.- Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2015. OECD & European Commission. -http://www.oecd.org/migration/indicators-of-immigrant-integration-2015-settling-in-9789264234024-en.htm

☒ Chart sources.
OECD.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi Jul 5, 2015 12:44pm | Post# 59

1 Attachment(s)

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about the Employment Persons (Males & Females), in some key countries of EuroArea.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a slide, obtained from OECD data center on employment, in order to complete a next mini-review on some labor-curves of Italy vs. EuroArea (see these posts: #1, #2; #3).
This slide shows the employed population, divided by males & females, of some key countries of EuroArea, compared to some economic geo-groups (es.: OECD).

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
✔ The two Euro geo-groups, shows equal ''males vs. females percentages'' of employed population: 54% vs. 46%.

☒ References.
#1.- Some notes/charts about the employment curves of Italy. - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260334530
#2.- Notes and charts about the Italian Labor Tax and Contributions as Percent of Commercial Profits. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8346364#post834636 4
#3.- Unemployment Rate Spread between Foreign-Born vs. Native-Born in some OECD Countries. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8362987#post8362987

☒ Chart sources.
OECD.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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Sal.Vi Jul 5, 2015 3:47pm | Post# 60

5 Attachment(s)

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Grafici e considerazioni riguardanti le Curve di Disoccupazione-Occupazione dell'Italia vs. EuroArea.


☒ Obiettivo del Post.
In questo post si tenta di fornire una visione semplice e comparativa, di alcune curve del mercato del lavoro in Italia, raffrontate con le medesime curve disponbili per l'intera EuroArea; nei casi di non disponibilita' delle curve per l'EuroArea, sono state usate quelle di Francia e Germania, che sono certamente le nazioni piu' simili, economicamente e dimensionalmente, all'Italia.
I grafici sono solitamente accostati uno di fianco l'altro per facilitarne la lettura comparativa, usando fondo bianco per l'Italia e nero per la controparte.
Si consulti il post precedente sulla discussione delle curve del mercato del lavoro in Italia [#1].


☒ Stocks-benchmarks Utili per questo Post.
► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK).
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


☒ Elementi Grafici.
1.✔ Tasso di Disoccupati.- La curva italiana mostra attualmente un livello di oltre 1 punto % maggiore di quello dell'EuroArea. Allo stato attuale, la curva italiana non esibisce una chiara inversione della tendenza rialzista in atto dal 2008, mentre quella dell'EuroArea evidenzia una decisa flessione recente ed anche una avvenuta inversione di tendenza (linea azzurra chiaramente intersecata al ribasso dalla curva).
Mentre dal 2008 al 2012 la pendenza della curva italiana (dal 6% all'8%) e' stata decisamente piu' dolce di quella dell'EuroArea (dal 7% al 10%), nella fase successiva c'e' stata una violenta accelerazione della curva italiana, rispetto quella dell'EuroArea, che ha mostrato una decisa decelerazione ed una susseguente chiara inversione.

2.✔ Tasso di Disoccupati di Lungo Termine.- Su questa curva si evidenziano sostanzialmente i medesimi elementi grafici della curva precedente: valori italiani decisamente piu' elevati (+2% circa); tendenza ancora rialzista in Italia mentre con tentativo di inversione al ribasso in EuroArea; nuovi massimi della curva in Italia ma non in EuroArea; accelerazione della curva italiana post-2012.

3.✔ Disoccupati come % sul Totale Occupati.- E' interessante notare come questa curva presenti attualmente circa il medesimo valore per l'Italia e l'EuroArea. Cio' che cambia e' il diverso aspetto della curva nei decenni passati. Gli anni ''80 & prima meta' degli anni ''90 mostrano un profilo della curva decisamente migliore per l'Italia rispetto l'EuroArea. Questo miglior aspetto della curva e' perdurato (eccetto alcuni punti della curva stessa: area di top 1997-1999 circa) anche nel decennio successivo come comprovato dal minimo italiano ben inferiore rispetto a quello dell'EuroArea. Nella fase post-2012 c'e' stata una accelerazione rialzista della curva italiana (vedasi curve 1., 2.).

4.✔ Tasso di Disoccupazione Giovanile.- Nella fase pre-Euro la curva italiana era decisamente superiore a quella della futura EuroArea. Nella fase ''start-Euro'' c'e' stata una forte discesa della disoccupazione giovanile in Italia, con un avvicinamento ai valori medi dell'EuroArea nei due anni, 2006-2007, prima della crisi attuale. La vera rottura degli equilibri c'e' stata nel 2012 (vedi tre curve precedenti). Difatti la curva dell'EuroArea ha eseguito una impennata sopra i precedenti massimi (+3% circa), per poi rapidamente scendere nuovamente sui livelli di top anni ''90, effettuando la ben nota inversione ribassista evdenziata nei grafici precedentemente commentati. L'Italia invece dal 2012 s'e' stabilizzata a ben oltre 10% in piu' dei precedenti massimi degli anni ''90, senza alcuna apparente inversione in atto.

5.✔ Costo del Lavoro.- Le curve mostrano che fin dall'inizio dei dati, l'Italia ha vantato costi maggiori, ma proprio nella attuale fase di crisi (post-2008) il costo del lavoro e' andato fuori controllo, non solo come valutazioni (massimi di 120/125 vs. 100/105) ma anche come volatilita' del dato stesso. Quindi dal 2008 in poi, per tale parametro, e' diventato poco sostenibile eseguire una valutazione attendibile di medio termine, sui costi di una azienda (oscillazioni: ... 110/125/110 ....).

6.✔ Crescita Salari.- Nel 2008 il livello di crescita Italia vs. EuroArea era decisamente similare; nella fase successiva l'indice italiano e' sceso fino all' 1% ed e' rimasto finora su quei valori; l'indice dell'EuroArea invece e' oramai ben sopra il 2%, con riflessi non trascurabili sulla possibilita' di spesa cumulativa dei percettori di salario.

7.✔ Disoccupati con Istruzione Terziaria come % dei Disoccupati Totali.- Questo dato e' decisamente migliore per l'Italia rispetto l'EuroArea da tutti i punti di vista, sia come valori nei decenni pre-crisi sia come valori attuali.

8.✔ Occupati Auto-Impiego come % degli Occupati Totali.- Stesse caratteristiche grafiche della curva precedente, con l'Italia decisamente migliore rispetto l'EuroArea da tutti i punti di vista; l'auto-impiego in Italia e' stato sempre piu' forte di quello in Euro-Zona, particolarmente nella fase <meta' anni ''90 - meta' anni ''00>.

9.✔ Occupati Part-Time come % degli Occupati Totali.- Le curve sono molto simili sia in tendenza (fortemente crescente) che in valori percentuali, con l'Italia che mostra pero' valori inferiori di 2-3 punti.

10.✔ Occupati Settore Servizi come % degli Occupati Totali.- Le curve sono molto simili sia in tendenza (fortemente crescente) che in valori percentuali, con l'Italia che mostra pero' valori inferiori di qualche punto.

11.✔ Occupati Settore Industria come % degli Occupati Totali.- Le curve sono molto simili sia in tendenza (fortemente decrescente) che in valori percentuali, con l'Italia che mostra pero' valori superiori di qualche punto.

12.✔ Occupati Settore Agricoltura come % degli Occupati Totali.- Le curve sono molto simili sia in tendenza (fortemente decrescente) che in valori percentuali, con l'Italia che mostra pero' una accelerazione ribassista circa doppia rispetto l'EuroArea (punti di partenza: 14% vs. 7%).

13.✔ Occupati ''Economicamente Vulnerabili'' come % degli Occupati Totali.- La curva italiana e' molto chiara a riguardo: 2-3 volte quella tedesca e 1.5-2.0 volte quella EuroArea.

14.✔ GDP/Persona (ppp method).- I due parametri considerati, sia quello complessivo che quello relativo ai soli lavoratori, mostrano una contrazione per l'Italia decisamente piu' marcata rispetto quella dell'EuroArea; addirittura il GDP/lavoratore dell'EuroArea pare non aver subito significative variazioni 2007-2012. Un punto da sottolineare e' che in Italia il picco del GDP/lavoratore e' stato toccato nel lontano 1999-2000.

15.✔ Corruption Rank.- L'Italia mostra valori assolutamente ''monstre'' rispetto Germania e Francia; nel 1995 l'Italia esibiva un valore circa doppio rispetto le altre due nazioni; dal 2007 in poi l'incremento per l'Italia e' stato simil-geometrico, ~3.5X rispetto la Francia e ben ~5.8X rispetto la Germania.

16.✔ Accessibilita' al Business.- In Italia c'e' stato un miglioramento importante negli ultimi 3 anni, passando da una situazione di ''quasi inaccessibilita'" al business (valutazioni superiori ai 70 pts nel 2008-2012) alle attuali valutazioni inferiori ai 60 pts. Cio' nonostante, l'Italia appare decisamente svantaggiata rispetto la Francia (circa 30 pts) e la Germania, quest'ultima con una valutazione migliore di ben ~4 volte !!!

17.✔ Livello Cumulativo di Aziende in Bancarotta.- In Italia la tendenza principale e' decisamente crescente, in Francia e' circa stabile ed in Germania e' decrescente. La valutazione complessiva vede l'Italia circa ~8.5X i valori della Francia e poco meno di ~2X quelli della Germania.

18.✔ Tasso di SocioSicurezza per gli Occupati.- In Italia e' decisamente piu' basso rispetto le due nazioni chiave dell'EuroArea, con uno spread del 3%-4%.

19.✔ Classifica di Competitivita'.- L'Italia mostra valori ~2X peggiori rispetto la Francia e addirittura ~10X peggiori rispetto la Germania.

20.✔ Tasse Personali.- Il profilo delle tasse personali dei tre paesi principali appare molto simile, sia come tendenza sia come valori attuali.

21.✔ Tasse & Contributi Lavorativi come % dei Profitti Aziendali (vedi riferimento #2).- Il paese dove il livello di questo parametro e' massimo e' la Francia (> 50%; (URL="http://www.researchgate.net/publication/259656916"]spread[/url], ITA vs. FRA = -9%). L'Italia mostra elevati spreads vs. EU (+14%), Eu-Union (+16%), OECD H.I. (+20%) ed anche verso la media delle 4 Euro nazioni usate (+16%: FRA, GER, SPA, POR); Spreads eccessivamente alti vengono mostrati anche vs. Svizzera (+25%) e U.K. (+32%) (vedasi riferimento #2).

22.✔ Attesa di Vita vs. Eta' Pensionabile (Maschi & Femmine).- In Italia gli spreads tra eta' media vs. eta' pensionabile per uomini e donne sono perfettamente in linea coi medesimi spreads dell'EuroArea: ITA/f: +20.6 anni; EuAr/f: +19.7 anni; ITA/m: +12.9 anni; EuAr/m +13.4 anni.

23.✔ Spread tra Tasso di Disoccupazione Immigrati vs. Nativi (vedi riferimento #3).- L'Italia esibisce uno spread circa in-linea (+4.3%) vs. EuroArea, e similare a quello della Germania, ma ben inferiore a quello mostrato dalla Francia (#3). L'Italia ha uno spread di disoccupazione Immigrati vs. Nativi decisamente migliore rispetto la media dei due principali paesi Germania & Francia (+5.25%).


☒ Considerazioni.
✔ Le curve contrassegnate col codice 1., 2., 3., 6., 9., 10., esibiscono per l'Italia una similare valutazione a quella della EuroArea, anche se con una tendenza peggiorativa. I dati cumulativi del tasso di disoccupazione pertanto evidenziano una crisi occupazionale italiana in sintonia con l'intera EuroArea, anche se lungi ancora dall'evidenziare una inversione. Dato interessante e' che una parte importante della discrepanza tra Italia e EuroArea sulle curve disoccupazionali, si e' originata a partire dal 2012 e, da li' in poi, s'e' stabilizzata.
✔ Per quanto riguarda invece alcune curve specifiche del mercato del lavoro, come Disoccupazione Giovanile, Occupati Agricoltura, Occupati Vulnerabili, si vede come questi siano elementi nei quali l'Italia e' decisamente peggiore dell'EuroArea, tale da essere quasi fuori scala.
✔ Considerazioni identiche alla precedente si eseguono su tutte le curve che hanno a che fare col GDP (n., 14.) e con la competitivita' del sistema paese e/o mercato del lavoro (5., 15., 16., 17., 18., 19., 21.), con l'Italia in una posizione di svantaggio effettivamente importante/rilevante rispetto l'EuroArea.
✔ Le curve contrassegnate con 7., 8., 11., 23., esibiscono inaspettatamente valori migliori per l'Italia rispetto l'EuroArea; particolarmente inatteso e' il dato sulla disoccupazione degli immigrati confrontato con quello dei residenti (n., 23.), segno di un progresso d'integrazione decisamente migliore di quanto comunemente percepito, sia dalla cittadinanza italiana che dalle istituzioni europee.
✔ Le Tasse Personali (n., 20.), cosi' come appaiono dalle curve rilevate, hanno valori perfettamente in linea tra Italia, Francia e Germania, pertanto tale dato non causa distorsioni interpretative nella valutazione del mercato del lavoro.
✔ L'Attesa di Vita vs. Eta' Pensionabile (n., 22.) mostra la medesima situazione precedente, cioe' dati perfettamente o quasi sovrapponibili tra Italia ed EuroArea. Cio' che emerge e' un fatto collaterale alla semplice comparazione Italia vs. EuroArea: la popolazione femminile dell'EuroArea gode di circa 7 anni in piu' di ''vita pensionistica'', una quota maggiorativa di oltre il 50% rispetto la popolazione maschile. Comparando questo dato con i valori dell'OECD riguardanti il numero di lavoratori maschi e femmine all'interno dell'EuroArea (sia a 19 che a 28 paesi: 54% vs. 46%; vedi riferimento #4), si evince un problema di <sostenibilita'> di medio-lungo termine del sistema pensionistico europeo. Tale problema sarebbe causato dalla eccessiva durata della vita pensionistica femminile rispetto ai maschi (a parita' quasi di rappresentativita' tra gli occupati totali: vedi riferimento #4), che graverebbe molto piu' di quella maschile sulla previdenza. Probabilmente c'e' bisogno di una armonizzazione tra la durata media della ''vita pensionistica'' di maschi e femmine.


☒ Riferimenti.
#1.- Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the employment curves of Italy. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260334530
#2.- Notes and charts about the Italian Labor Tax and Contributions as Percent of Commercial Profits. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8346364#post8346364
#3.- Notes and charts about the Unemployment Rate Spread between Foreign-Born vs. Native-Born in some OECD Countries. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8362987#post8362987
#4.- Notes and charts about the Employment Persons (Males & Females), in some key countries of EuroArea. -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8363841#post8363841


☒ Fonti dei Grafici.
TradingEconomics.


Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments. [Contact].
☻/ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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