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-   -   Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=506246)

medici Oct 23, 2017 3:29am | Post# 35321

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Short from 13012.5 hoping for yesterday's low.
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KjellDT Oct 23, 2017 3:39am | Post# 35322

{quote} sl = be now, tp +45
sl +15, tp +60

PariCovek Oct 23, 2017 3:52am | Post# 35323

Weekend puzzle After Friday's push higher, the Russell 2000 has reached a P/E ratio of 115.45, while the dividend yield is 1.33%. One third of the companies comprising the index reported no profit last quarter. Earnings season starts next week. Are the risks to the upside or downside?
Fantastic quote. With a PE ratio that high, you'd say its anywhere to be x3 to x7 overvalued.

The index that fascinates me the most is the Nikkei. Just keeps powering away north. And if the JPY spirals out of control with the money printing given the BoJ balance sheet size compared to GDP, then its the Index that will power most north. Its almost worth just going long and leaving it for a few months with the stops just below the major trending lines.

KjellDT Oct 23, 2017 4:00am | Post# 35324

{quote} sl +15, tp +60
Closed at 12.982 (FDAX), tp +23.

medici Oct 23, 2017 4:02am | Post# 35325

{quote} Fantastic quote. With a PE ratio that high, you'd say its anywhere to be x3 to x7 overvalued.
Indeed, but valuations don't seem to matter much right now. One day they will.

The index that fascinates me the most is the Nikkei. Just keeps powering away north. And if the JPY spirals out of control with the money printing given the BoJ balance sheet size compared to GDP, then its the Index that will power most north. Its almost worth just going long and leaving it for a few months with the stops just below the major trending lines.

Agreed. Fascinating times we live in...

PariCovek Oct 23, 2017 5:06am | Post# 35326

Trying Shorts here at 030, SL at 13050. Not sure on this one. Still looks bullish

PariCovek Oct 23, 2017 5:22am | Post# 35327

Trying Shorts here at 030, SL at 13050. Not sure on this one. Still looks bullish
Exit -1.

Dont like it.

medici Oct 23, 2017 5:36am | Post# 35328

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Trying Shorts here at 030, SL at 13050. Not sure on this one. Still looks bullish
It's the old 76.4% trick.
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parisboy Oct 23, 2017 6:03am | Post# 35329

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DAX Envelopes today (24 H / 1 minute)
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deltaone Oct 23, 2017 6:14am | Post# 35330

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{quote} Indeed, but valuations don't seem to matter much right now. One day they will. {quote} Agreed. Fascinating times we live in...
well, it depends:

which valuation method is used?

a simple multiplicator approach like p/e (better: shiller p/e) can be somehow fallace.
the biggest problem is that the interest rate is not so relevant - and we have zero/low interest times.
i know they are used a lot these times, esp. by non-academics and sell-side analysts because they are easy to use - and make corporations in the same industry comparable.

i prefer npv/dcf approach because it takes the interest rate into account. even with unchanged cashflows, a corporation has more intrinsic value because of the low interest rate. math does not lie: the denominator is smaller than any other time in history. as long as the rates are not rising to normal levels, stocks will outperform all other asset classes. if so, when will interest rates rise? only when inflation is rising. when will inflation rise? when growth rate accelerates. and in a world with more growth, earnings will rise, too. this is the simple reason for the stocks to rise in the long run. this is the dow from 1928 - 2017:
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medici Oct 23, 2017 6:19am | Post# 35331

{quote} i prefer npv/dcf approach {image}
Me too, and I agree. Still, P/E of 115 and dividend yield of 1.33% doesn't make for high npv, or does it? What time period would you need to take it over to make it positive? How many hundred years?

iak Oct 23, 2017 7:03am | Post# 35332

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dax. long 13055
sl 10
tp open...
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out -4.3

deltaone Oct 23, 2017 7:23am | Post# 35333

{quote} Me too, and I agree. Still, P/E of 115 and dividend yield of 1.33% doesn't make for high npv, or does it? What time period would you need to take it over to make it positive? How many hundred years?
i never look at that index, but i know it. those figures are a warning sign, thatīs true. i use p/e and dividend yield as a filter. to be honest, thatīs why i never bought amazon, google, facebook etc. just old economy so to say - i think i understand those industries, at least i have good investment results with that approach. not a buyer atm. do my research in order to find new investment opportunties, not as easy as in 2010.

medici Oct 23, 2017 7:30am | Post# 35334

{quote} i never look at that index, but i know it. those figures are a warning sign, thatīs true. i use p/e and dividend yield as a filter. to be honest, thatīs why i never bought amazon, google, facebook etc. just old economy so to say - i think i understand those industries, at least i have good investment results with that approach. not a buyer atm. do my research in order to find new investment opportunties, not as easy as in 2010.
Have you considered filtering stocks based on PEG ratio? Investing based on that has historically yielded superior returns.

medici Oct 23, 2017 7:41am | Post# 35335

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And I'm nursing another short. So far 20+ points in profit.
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PariCovek Oct 23, 2017 7:50am | Post# 35336

And I'm nursing another short. So far 20+ points in profit. {image}
Have a small short at the same entry... Hoping it breaks 1m 200sma, and just did; but have some supports at 026 and 020.

PariCovek Oct 23, 2017 7:52am | Post# 35337

{quote} Have a small short at the same entry... Hoping it breaks 1m 200sma, and just did; but have some supports at 026 and 020.
Boom see ya later... out for 50

medici Oct 23, 2017 7:52am | Post# 35338

And I'm nursing another short. So far 20+ points in profit. {image}
Out for 50.

KjellDT Oct 23, 2017 7:54am | Post# 35339

And I'm nursing another short. So far 20+ points in profit. {image}
medici, since I am quite new to the game, may I ask which programme you are using?

medici Oct 23, 2017 7:55am | Post# 35340

{quote} medici, since I am quite new to the game, may I ask which programme you are using?
https://www.prorealtime.com/en/


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