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-   -   Follow the monthly candle and be profitable (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=505135)

Robinho Sep 20, 2014 7:36am | Post# 21

{quote} Please explain better. Therae are daily or montly candles. Your report indicates the daily ones. Regards. Ryszard
All your chart are monthly,,, place in Monthly and look at the rule, that you will see,,,, all entries have been following the closing of the candle August.

Robinho Sep 20, 2014 7:41am | Post# 22

Friends can adapt according to each one ... but I prefer to work doing only 01 per month for each input pair,,, not want to be watching the market every day, but for those who want,,, feel free ... but the most importantly, make entries just following the previous candle closed.

Robinho Sep 20, 2014 7:46am | Post# 23

I'm not worried about turning,, why put 60 pips tp ..... and another thing to see how many past,,, monthly follow the previous candles .... in the future I may even put a Tp of only 10 pips, because I earn 270 pips per month and ready,,, every month we,,, this market long term,,, will give me the assurance that both hope and,,, without having to stand on your PC every day.

Hammertop Sep 20, 2014 8:54am | Post# 24

I think the last 4 replies by Robinho summarize the whole philosopy of his system (by the way thanks for posting it, mate): simple and effective, no stress. I don't know why there are already posts on how to make it complicated...

@ Robinho
If I may ask, you basically calculate your stake by dividing the bank by 10000. Is that correct? Thanks

griffinssoul Sep 20, 2014 9:37am | Post# 25

Just follow the previous monthly candle Monthly candle closes red: We will place a sell stop pending order 20 pips below the opening price of the new monthly candle with 60 pips TP and 100 pips STOP. Monthly blue candle closes: We will place a pending order buy stop 20 pips above the opening price of the new monthly candle with 60 pips TP and 100 pips STOP. 27 Pairs: eurusd,gbpusd,audusd,nzdusd,eurjpy.gbpjpy.audjpy,nzdjpy,euraud,gbpaud,usdcad,eurcad,gbpchf,usdchf, usdjpy,eurnzd,gbpnzd,audcad,audchf,audnzd,cadchf,cadjpy,chfjpy,gbpcad,nzdcad, nzdchf...
Hi Robinho, Thank you so much for posting your interesting trading idea. In your experience is there particular focus placed on certain types of (monthly) candles (for example, like marubozu candles) while others are deemed higher risk? For example, (I'm just guessing here) would you forgo a trade if the previous months candle was a doji (obvious reasons - can't be an exact doji, perhaps), shooting star (might go against you if trend change), etc.

Looking to the right of the signal (vertical) line in Billytt's chart (see page 1 of this thread) the strategy would have given certain wins on the three black crows. Of course, there is no way to know this but you could possibly assign probabilities dependent upon previous months candles(?)

Hammertop Sep 20, 2014 10:50am | Post# 26

For example, (I'm just guessing here) would you forgo a trade if the previous months candle was a doji ... Of course, there is no way to know this but you could possibly assign probabilities dependent upon previous months candles(?)
Thats an intelligent question. I forgot to ask about the doji although it did pass on my mind. My guess is that, being extremely unlikely to get an exact doji, there will certainly be some difference between open and close and Robinho would still follow that direction, reason being that having to place positions on 27 pairs, it would take some time, and assessing such situations could be just a waste of it. Let's not forget that 20 pips could be made in no time and opportunities could be missed. Probably the chances to be right or wrong would level out in time. I think the edge here is in having a higher number of pairs that do follow the previous month direction than the ones which don't.
Now if I'm allowed to say the word, I think a manual EA to place stop orders at +/- 20 pips from the open with a predefined SL and TP, and maybe the option to add spread, would just make things perfect. I hope someone capable will pick up the idea...
Ball over to Robinho...

BLACKFEET Sep 20, 2014 12:09pm | Post# 27

1 Attachment(s)
Hi Robinho,

I made this (little) test.

Anybody to follow ?

Thanks & Regards

BBF

Change : Excell sheet modified
Tests.xlsx

claudia1 Sep 20, 2014 12:28pm | Post# 28

I'm not worried about turning,, why put 60 pips tp ..... and another thing to see how many past,,, monthly follow the previous candles .... in the future I may even put a Tp of only 10 pips, because I earn 270 pips per month and ready,,, every month we,,, this market long term,,, will give me the assurance that both hope and,,, without having to stand on your PC every day.
Hi Robin - you got a lot of silly questions being asked here. Your strategy is very straight forward and I see no need for the questions. I think it would be profitable the problem with it is the time involved most people wont have the patience (Billys comment I think).

I day trade for a living and could never ever trade this way in fx but I think you have a good sytem just not for me.

Hey good luck.

jen101 Sep 20, 2014 1:20pm | Post# 29

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} I think a manual EA to place stop orders at +/- 20 pips from the open with a predefined SL and TP, and maybe the option to add spread, would just make things perfect. I hope someone capable will pick up the idea... Ball over to Robinho...
This might help. I have a pending order script which I discovered works just fine as an EA if you stick it into the experts folder . You can input the SL and TP in pips, so you just have to put in the price. Don't forget to check "disable alert once hit" otherwise as an EA it will keep on opening trades every time price crosses over your entry point in your direction.
HiddenPendingOrder.ex4

Hammertop Sep 20, 2014 1:52pm | Post# 30

{quote} This might help. I have a pending order script which I discovered works just fine as an EA if you stick it into the experts folder . You can input the SL and TP in pips, so you just have to put in the price. Don't forget to check "disable alert once hit" otherwise as an EA it will keep on opening trades every time price crosses over your entry point in your direction. {file}
Sounds good. Will try it out, thanks.

Pharm0r Sep 21, 2014 1:40am | Post# 31

Interesting. I might try this in a separate account next month

griffinssoul Sep 21, 2014 2:12am | Post# 32

{quote} Thats an intelligent question. I forgot to ask about the doji although it did pass on my mind. My guess is that, being extremely unlikely to get an exact doji, there will certainly be some difference between open and close and Robinho would still follow that direction, reason being that having to place positions on 27 pairs, it would take some time, and assessing such situations could be just a waste of it. Let's not forget that 20 pips could be made in no time and opportunities could be missed. Probably the chances to be right or wrong...
I think you are correct Hammertop, in saying you would simply be over whelmed assessing such situations given the number of pairs involved and it would perhaps make little difference to the consolidated outcome. (Also, an exact doji is improbably in value yet more likely in (chart) appearance but I guess that's where software can help - it's not a stretch to check open/close.) However, I guess I was interested in any observational comments Robinho may have based on actual trading experience. Actually, this idea would also make an informative indicator of sorts, even if the trading TF is unappealing.

billytt Sep 21, 2014 4:17am | Post# 33

guys, Keep this method simple.
The past monthly candle has a high and a low,
This is what you trade off.
a previous candle will give you a big clue as to what is going to happen (not 100% true though) like Smash 1820 was getting at regarding trends etc
check with weekly candle for clues.
This is a good method if you do not think and I add again it can and does fail at times but that is trading, be good trade well

corinthia Sep 21, 2014 4:49am | Post# 34

Signing up.

iwjw Sep 21, 2014 5:00am | Post# 35

what about the broker time?
Broker A might have the new monthly candle open while Broker B still has some hours to go
If time doesn't matter, you could open multiple sets of trades on that day with 1h distance from GMT-11 to GMT+11

FerruFx Sep 21, 2014 5:03am | Post# 36

Interesting way of trading. Plenty of time to spend the earned pips!

For those who are looking back on chart to see the profitability, remember that looking only at the monthly candles (that's the entry strategy) won't tell you if the TP or SL was hit first.

Example we went Long ... we see that this past monthly candle has an upper wick higher than the 60 pips required for TP ... But that doesn't mean that the TP was reach. Keep in mind that within a month price goes up and down and in this case it may have hit the -100 pips down before reaching the 60 pips up.

So that's important to check the M1 chart to see the price movement within this month and find if it reached TP or SL first.

Hammertop Sep 21, 2014 5:15am | Post# 37

what about the broker time? Broker A might have the new monthly candle open while Broker B still has some hours to go If time doesn't matter, you could open multiple sets of trades on that day with 1h distance from GMT-11 to GMT+11
...yeah, and practically be glued to the PC for 24 hours LOL. That's stretching it a little too much maybe... LOL
Under a logical point of view, servers difference should average out. My 2c...

billytt Sep 21, 2014 5:22am | Post# 38

Interesting way of trading. Plenty of time to spend the earned pips! For those who are looking back on chart to see the profitability, remember that looking only at the monthly candles (that's the entry strategy) won't tell you if the TP or SL was hit first. Example we went Long ... we see that this past monthly candle has an upper wick higher than the 60 pips required for TP ... But that doesn't mean that the TP was reach. Keep in mind that within a month price goes up and down and in this case it may have hit the -100 pips down before reaching...
WELL SAID, I assume most people here realise that,

iwjw Sep 21, 2014 5:28am | Post# 39

{quote} ...yeah, and practically be glued to the PC for 24 hours LOL. That's stretching it a little too much maybe... LOL Under a logical point of view, servers difference should average out. My 2c...
no need to sit in front of the PC
Just start an EA and the job is done

billytt Sep 21, 2014 5:33am | Post# 40

Even I said about having patience trading off a monthly chart.
But look how many people are being negative about waiting to make money, It just shows our greed and want money now philosophy .
read post FerruFx put in


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