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-   -   SPX and DAX - CFDs are the place to be (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=487175)

doggette May 29, 2014 5:01am | Post# 1

SPX and DAX - CFDs are the place to be
 
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I quite enjoy trading equity indices, recently even more so than trading forex.

SPX has been in a fierce uptrend for the last 6 years. It started at around 700 and now its up at almost $2000.

Fundamental reasons for this amazing rise was no doubt Fed's QE. With tapering bond purchases every month, how long can this be sustained?

Anyone else getting tired of "s&p making new highs"?

DAX is another awesome index I'm beginning to like a lot. Word of caution though: like other volatile assets, DAX can also get away from you quickly, so if trading DAX, protect your capital with stoplosses and BE in due time.

Since I also frequently trade crude oil, you can expect to see crude oil analysis here too.

In my trading I use a combination of supply and demand off larger timeframes (typically H4) with weekly/monthly pivots and S/R off Daily charts, using m5 and m15 with tape reading tools for accurate entries. I use HHs and LLs to gauge primary trend changes. Anyone is welcome in this thread, discussing other CFDs and fx pairs.

I don't use any lagging indicators in my intraday trading and I firmly believe they are a waste of time for intraday traders. So I kindly ask people who use these to not post entries of the type: m5 5MA crossing 20MA it's a BUY SIGNAL! If you are using MAs and RSIs, I will only accept that kind of analysis if its taken off a Daily chart (50, 100 and 200DMA).

HINDSIGHT NOT ALLOWED!!!!

SHOULDA WOULDA COULDA has no place in trading.

DISRESPECTFUL posts won't be tolerated either.

Happy CFD trading!!!

P.S. Funny pics and posts are welcome and greatly encouraged for some laughs and variety, provided that you post analysis and trading views prior.
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doggette May 29, 2014 5:10am | Post# 2

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And now onto some analysis.

SPX first.

With FED tapering every month, I'm expecting some downside. Although currently there is no real indication of trend change, looking at some futures spx data, volumes have dried up in the last week or so.

And while spx still continues to make HHs, they are not nearly as ground breaking as I've seen them in the last couple of years. I for sure am not going to be buying without at least a retrace to 1862/70/75 area. Since January 2014, SPX hasn't really had three down days. With volumes diminishing, I would expect to see a monstrous down week soon. Clearly people are no longer interested in taking this thing too much higher.

One number that stands out is the obvious $2000, round psych number but with bond purchase tapering I really can't see it reaching it this year.

So I'm effectively making a case for a top and trend change, for fundamental reasons.

Below: Daily futures chart of S&P500
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doggette May 29, 2014 5:16am | Post# 3

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Crude oil picture is clearer - with yesterdays break of 103.52 and consequently weekly pivot at 103.42, double top pattern on H4 chart has been vindicated.

Although I have a buy zone around 102.25-102.55, the safest play would be to try and short off zone that encompasses weekly pivot and former broken support between 103.40 and 104.60.

There is more upside risk, if price returns to 104.29 to retest H4 zone. If 104.54 is convincingly broken, this invalidates double top and will continue higher to the next supply zone and area of interest above 105.
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doggette May 29, 2014 11:38am | Post# 4

Opened crude short at 103.51

Dnytis May 29, 2014 12:41pm | Post# 5

Nice tread, I also love DAX. I don't have any opportunities to post something yet, but I think we should expect a short term DAX pull back. Maybe somewhere to the 9800-9850 area. It looks like there is a lot of resistance now.

Dano12 May 29, 2014 12:46pm | Post# 6

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doggette May 29, 2014 1:19pm | Post# 7

Opened crude short at 103.51
Upside risk to 104.29 in play

doggette May 29, 2014 1:24pm | Post# 8

I will try one last short after 7pm gmt for a range fill move into NY close. Ideally around R1 off the back of daily range exhaustion and mean averages or even more ideal at 104.27/29

doggette May 29, 2014 2:06pm | Post# 9

And that last short I was harping on about earlier. Entry at 103.65, stop above the high, target 103.00

Mr Mao May 30, 2014 12:58am | Post# 10

hi,doggette,
i'm very interested in your analysis.
i have focused on spx500 since it broke 1576,nearly 15months.
the bastard is really elusive.

even though,
i planned to short when it reach 1920,a strong channel resistance,
and setted a target around 1888.
it will not strike to me if the goal could be achieved in about 2 weeks.


good luck!

PROredart May 30, 2014 1:22am | Post# 11

Crude oil picture is clearer - with yesterdays break of 103.52 and consequently weekly pivot at 103.42, double top pattern on H4 chart has been vindicated. Although I have a buy zone around 102.25-102.55, the safest play would be to try and short off zone that encompasses weekly pivot and former broken support between 103.40 and 104.60. There is more upside risk, if price returns to 104.29 to retest H4 zone. If 104.54 is convincingly broken, this invalidates double top and will continue higher to the next supply zone and area of interest above 105....
I have one question regarding your entry, which you prefer to entry at supply zone or sell zone?

Your reply is appreciated. Thank you

doggette May 30, 2014 5:14am | Post# 12

{quote} I have one question regarding your entry, which you prefer to entry at supply zone or sell zone? Your reply is appreciated. Thank you
It really depends on how price behaves when it reaches those levels. I rarely go in with limit orders on crude, usually I'll wait to see if there is rejection candle pattern on lower timeframes like m15 or m5, confirmed with strong cumulative delta volume in favour of my trade direction.

If the rejection is there, but it ultimately fails, I will then wait for time of the day to be right when I expect to see profit taking, which means the price will head in the other direction when all the people who have bought the asset will be closing their positions. Usually for crude I will try to go in after Nymex open and then again after 7pm when there's usually one last move of the day that typically fills the range because of profit taking.

doggette May 30, 2014 5:19am | Post# 13

hi,doggette, i'm very interested in your analysis. i have focused on spx500 since it broke 1576,nearly 15months. the bastard is really elusive. even though, i planned to short when it reach 1920,a strong channel resistance, and setted a target around 1888. it will not strike to me if the goal could be achieved in about 2 weeks. good luck!
Up until the tapering, it's been pretty easy catching the uptrend for me, however I am reluctant to buy it now for fundamental reasons stated before. So I am still looking for good signals to sell. Haven't seen one yet though. I will be looking to see how spx behaves around 1919/1920 today for potential sell once it retests the London supply zone, but this instrument is still making higher highs, its absolutely ridiculous. Yesterday it made a tiny HH after NY close. But overall volumes have fallen significantly in the futures market.

doggette May 30, 2014 5:20am | Post# 14

Btw still running my crude oil short from 103.65, its nearly at target

doggette May 30, 2014 5:24am | Post# 15

Nice tread, I also love DAX. I don't have any opportunities to post something yet, but I think we should expect a short term DAX pull back. Maybe somewhere to the 9800-9850 area. It looks like there is a lot of resistance now.
I am looking at a similar level there too, purely because the weekly pivot hasn't been touched yet and it lies within H4 demand area.

jonnypants May 30, 2014 5:31am | Post# 16

{quote} this instrument is still making higher highs, its absolutely ridiculous.
It's all in the master plan! The Fed buys stocks using POMO, the rich get richer, the debt slaves get into more debt. The governments in Italy and the UK use hookers and blow to increase GDP, here you go http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...week-x-%C2%A36
and this way the fookers can increase debt even more but claim that debt to GDP is only slightly worse than last year even though the overall debt has increased by double figure percentages, simples init
Anybody trading DAX recently?

doggette May 30, 2014 6:02am | Post# 17

Central bankers are known for their ability to talk a lot without actually saying anything of real value lol.

With Dax I'm waiting for a more suitable level. Can't really see any high probability setups atm.

PROredart May 30, 2014 6:11am | Post# 18

{quote} It really depends on how price behaves when it reaches those levels. I rarely go in with limit orders on crude, usually I'll wait to see if there is rejection candle pattern on lower timeframes like m15 or m5, confirmed with strong cumulative delta volume in favour of my trade direction. If the rejection is there, but it ultimately fails, I will then wait for time of the day to be right when I expect to see profit taking, which means the price will head in the other direction when all the people who have bought the asset will be closing...
Thanks for your reply, happy pipping!

Regards

doggette Jun 2, 2014 8:22am | Post# 19

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Happy Monday everyone

Here's an outlook for DAX, looking a bit overstretched atm so I'm looking for short setups towards Weekly and Monthly pivots, esp because there are two support areas on Daily chart that align nicely with the two key levels for June and this week.

Weekly pivot at 9899 already has a reactive price action support, so totally valid for targets.

I am however looking for a bigger dip towards January 2014 former resistance, now broken and standing at 9795 exactly (cash markets).

This is also the point where I would start looking for long positions.

Daily Chart:
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Mr Mao Jun 2, 2014 9:20am | Post# 20

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jpn225 had made a 8-w high with a green capital spending,
and spx500 still attempts to break the uptrend line,a tumbledown resistance that could be conquered at any time.
even thoughe,i took a tiny short @1922 as planned,might not be a truly foolish one.
the sto gave me much confidence.

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