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Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 10:44am | Post# 1

A delicate secret
 
The world of forex-trading is governed by information. The one who has access to the right information at the right time and can process them quickly will normally be ahead of the pack. It is also a world full of people who don't try hard to survive but sell their organs everyday. I have seen many people post systems here and some will attck you if you don't give out your indicator. What you don't understand is that: it is better to click buy/sell without the next person knowing exactly why you bought/sold. That make it impossible for anyone to know exactly how you will react to market conditions.

Some of you will say, "it does not matter. The big boys don't care about you." That is silly. In fact, they really care about you. Your collective failures add up to their collective gains. The more they know about other players, small or large, the better their .......

So, in this thread I am not going to give you an indicator. But, I am going to show you that no matter how random the market looks, not matter how difficult your trading is, there is an underlying truth that exists. I will show it in pictures. It is up to you to look at the market differently and if you can uncover the truth for yourself, KEEP IT TO YOURSELF.
Don't waste your time trying to teach others because they will only end you calling you names.

SO, what is this fact. I have been in this industry for a while and my background is 90% technical and 10% fundamental. On the pictures, posted below, are two indicators. One orange and the other white. The law I managed to uncover is really really deep but in simple terms can be stated as follows.

When an orange arrow appears on a bar, up/down : usually price will work it way back to hit a level above/below the high/low of the bar.

I will show you that this principle worked correctly for many months on the 4hr chart. It is amazing!

Before you think this concept was discovered after one day in the industry then you are wrong. It is a product of many efforts. I just want to show you, all is not lost. Look hard and you will see what is hidden. I don't need to know your idea.

Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 10:48am | Post# 2

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burnssss Apr 5, 2014 10:53am | Post# 3

Very good eurusdd,
I'm a person that follows each post you write. And I have reason to believe in what you say. We have something in common, mathematics.
This principle seems to me to similarity, the price seems to fix some kind of mistake.
Thank you very much for coming back.

Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 10:59am | Post# 4

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Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 11:02am | Post# 5

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Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 11:06am | Post# 6

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I can go on and post the past 10 years data and the result will be the same. I guess you got the idea. If you have a solid idea, I will not advice you to post the indicator or mathematics here. Rather you can give your idea of where the market will go and add the probability of success.

Indicators only play into the hands of people ready to insult you or those ready to trade against the signal your indicator provided. Keep the key reason to yourself.

dragos_ Apr 5, 2014 11:12am | Post# 7

[..] if you can uncover the truth for yourself, KEEP IT TO YOURSELF.[..]I just want to show you, all is not lost. Look hard and you will see what is hidden. I don't need to know your idea.
why you don't do what you preach - to simply keep it for yourself?

Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 11:19am | Post# 8

There is ONE major observation. PRICE always went back to the top/bottom on the same screen. Look at all the lines I drew. They are on the same chart screen. So, looking on your 4hr chart, you should get back to the marked level before the bar completely vanished from the screen.

The powers-that-be, know that.

Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 11:24am | Post# 9

{quote} why you don't do what you preach - to simply keep it for yourself?
Find out the number of people who have lost money using indicators posted by others here. I don't think that is something we should be encouraging. People will continue to lose money as long as they continue to do the same thing over and over.

My post is trying to tell you that there are hints to look for and when you find a very good one, don't create an indicator and post the code on a public forum. You are shooting yourself in the foot.
Two months down the line, you will lose your account.

shiva Apr 5, 2014 11:40am | Post# 10

Welcome back EURUSDD All well?

Oghix Apr 5, 2014 11:44am | Post# 11

Ok then. I understand that you have a special indicator which works for you and you are not going to post it here. Ok. We saw you pictures and what now?
Are you going to post more pictures with arrows? Fantastic but i don't know what is the purpose of that. I'm not sure if you noticed that there are traders who do need special indicators to be very profitable and here in FF people want to learn something they can use in their trading. What can we learn from you?
Your charts are telling nothing. Just a bunch of arrows.

Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 11:52am | Post# 12

Ok then. I understand that you have a special indicator which works for you and you are not going to post it here. Ok. We saw you pictures and what now? Are you going to post more pictures with arrows. Fantastic but i don't know what is the purpose of that. I'm not sure if you noticed that there are traders who do need special indicators to be very profitable and here in FF people want to learn something they can use in their trading. What can we learn from you? Your charts are telling nothing. Just a bunch of arrows.
ok. because the next time i post a picture and tell you to look at a specific direction, you can choose to ignore it. I will not give you the code. At the end of the process, you will realize the truth.

I really don't encourage people to ask other for indicators and that is why I don't ask. The best approach for me is this : You have a system that works, you post a direction or analysis and state an approximate probability of success. With time, people will begin to see the effectiveness of your calls. Analysis should be based on calls people make.

With time, more efficient calls/traders will be identified and the forum will become interesting!

Oghix Apr 5, 2014 12:00pm | Post# 13

Ok. We'll see. What you mean by "... to look at a specify direction, you can choose to ignore it"? I undrestand that you advise to ignore the direction you are going to point but it is our decision to follow your advise or not. Am i right?

Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 12:09pm | Post# 14

Ok. We'll see. What you mean by "... to look at a specify direction, you can choose to ignore it"? I undrestand that you advise to ignore the direction you are going to point but it is our decision to follow your advise or not. Am i right?
I belong to a small trading group of five persons. We have been analyzing the forex market :EURUSD: for a while now and each person has a probability of success p (o<p<1) obtained from averaging his past calls.
So, if X says eurusd will rise to 1.23 within the next 3 hrs and his current probability of success is 45%, the group will identify his call with that number.
The more correct calls he makes, the higher p will be. In that way, he is motivated to make better calls and the group advances ....
We are not really interested in how he came about his decision, our group position is based on his p.

If I make 100 calls here and 90 of them are right and you place 10 pips stop loss each time and follow the simple rule above, you will benefit from my presence here more. But if I just give you an indicator and vanish, .

Oghix Apr 5, 2014 12:27pm | Post# 15

Ok. I'm not asking you for your indicator. I'm waiting for your calls and we shall see what we get. We do not have your % of probability yet so can you tell us what is your probability of success based on your trading? And are you going to post calls based on analysis of the whole group or just based on your own analysis? Are you an initiator of the group that you mentioned?

Eurusdd Apr 5, 2014 1:43pm | Post# 16

Ok. I'm not asking you for your indicator. I'm waiting for your calls and we shall see what we get. We do not have your % of probability yet so can you tell us what is your probability of success based on your trading? And are you going to post calls based on analysis of the whole group or just based on your own analysis? Are you an initiator of the group that you mentioned?
before one even ask another person for an indicator, it is always good to see if the person even know how to use the indicator properly. Before, I will will consider your forex idea, I need to know how well you understand it yourself. That is why it is advisable to allow people to give meaningful calls based on their ideas before you even attempt to know more about the trading philosophy.
That is the way I deal with traders and that is how I want you to deal with me. If I make 30 calls, you can then begin to calculate my relative success rate.
After that, you can then ask what principle governs my calls not the other way around like most people do here.

burnssss Apr 5, 2014 2:32pm | Post# 17

Hi eurusdd,
In the graphs above, I counted 46 signs, all of them for a certain period of time (window), and all of them successful.
I see you like a lot and understand the probability that the system contained in this post is a union of several systems in several timeframes, which always gives you a view of what the currency will do. Somehow you get the price lock.
I saw in your posts, probabilistic methods, the importance of synchronization in a dynamic random system, errors in the market ...
The accuracy of your calls was great.
I think people know your results. So people want to know how to get those results, or at least, useful information that will lead the way.
Some time ago I read a post of yours:
"A bar of 4h we have 4 bars of 1h"
The use of probability can be very good.
Many thanks for your return

Oghix Apr 5, 2014 2:44pm | Post# 18

{quote} before one even ask another person for an indicator, it is always good to see if the person even know how to use the indicator properly. Before, I will will consider your forex idea, I need to know how well you understand it yourself. That is why it is advisable to allow people to give meaningful calls based on their ideas before you even attempt to know more about the trading philosophy. That is the way I deal with traders and that is how I want you to deal with me. If I make 30 calls, you can then begin to calculate my relative success...
No offence but you did not give an answer for my questions. I did not ask you about your indicator or if people understand it or not.Could you just give me a straight answer? If you do not want to answer them then simply say that you do not want to answer them.
My questions were:
1. What is your probability of success based on your trading using this system?
2. Are you going to post calls based on analysis of the whole group or just based on your own analysis?
3. Are you an initiator of the group that you mentioned?

Magix Apr 5, 2014 3:01pm | Post# 19

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Hi eurusdd, In the graphs above, I counted 46 signs, all of them for a certain period of time (window), and all of them successful.
Successful of what?

How do we even know that these aren't painted in reverse?

After the level is hit, the arrow on historical gets painted...the perfect system, like all others...in reverse!

Supply and demand is nothing new to market, and anybody that can draw a horizontal line on a chart can do the same...no fancy mathematical probability claims, no colorful arrows...

That isn't going to make you money...

Read back through some actual historical posts, burns...how many people can you find that went broke, playing trend?

Knowing where it is going, is really only a part of the equation, how to profit by it getting there is the rest.
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burnssss Apr 5, 2014 3:21pm | Post# 20

Hi Magix,
I will not get into an argument, and sorry for saying things without thinking.
I know that your arrows do not repaint. I followed all eurusdd comments. "He" gave a level, where 90% of people disagreed. I know how its graphics and its philosophy of market.
One thing I am sure, are the results.
I'm not sure how to achieve those results.
Eurusd see trends that others do not see. Eliminates noise and obtains a high probability of success. I would learn from their math. It is showing that the basic mathematics used properly can be very powerful.
Sorry, and thank you very much for correcting my erroneous words.


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