What's on with the trade war?
"Chinese officials have remained conspicuously silent and dignified, during the social media onslaught the country has experienced from President Trump, over recent weekends. Trump took to his preferred method of communication (Twitter) on Sunday, to once again threaten China’s economy, with increased tariffs of 25%, on all Chinese imports into the USA. Chinese officials finally broke their silence to list a series of USA imports that would endure reciprocal tariffs. Analysts, traders and investors took this final retaliation as evidence that there is little expectation for a compromise and consensus to be reached, over the short term. Therefore, market participants are beginning to price in the damage a trade war will cost, on the basis that no one wins in a trade war. XAU/USD traded up 1.11% breaching the three levels of resistance, as price breached the 1,300 handle, for the first time since April 12-13th. In a classic, text book, illustration of risk off trading, yen attracted save haven bids from investors looking for refuge from falling markets, particularly from the slumping Asian equity markets. JPY recorded significant gains on the day versus all its major peers, especially: GBP, EUR, CHF, AUD and USD. The major pair USD/JPY continued its recent fall, maintaining position below the 110.0 handle at 109.23 down -0.57%, a low not printed since early February, as price fell to S3, before recovering marginally towards the end of the New York trading session. Similar patterns of yen price action was experienced by all currencies, were JPY was the counter currency of the pair. The Swiss franc also attracted safe haven investing, at 20:45pm U.K. time EUR/CHF traded down -0.54% at 1.130, as the bearish price action saw price crash through the three levels of support. USD/CHF experienced a similar pattern of price action behaviour, falling by -0.52% to reach 1.006, trading down -1.13% weekly, as the appeal of the Swissie has increased over the past trading week."
The Alien post above was before he created the v1 '3 stochastics' system. When the stos travel in different directions then price action is choppy.
Here is EU H4 chart - red lines are where all 3 stos are travelling in same direction at same time. 7 of the 8 show tradeable moves followed. 1 of the 8 is either loss or BE depending on trade management. I have not backtested this properly but it shows principle of lower & higher TFs lining up as Alien created the green sto & yellow sto to represent the higher TF price action, although it is not a true MTF indi.
3 stos travelling in the right direction, I might try that. I must admit i have tried scalping this week with a BB squeeze, expanding ADX, rsioma and green sto travelling in the right direction. However i also note that the 8,3,3 Sto is contrary to my planned trade, overbought when i want to buy or oversold when i want to sell and this has resulted in losses.
I do, almost feel as though i am predicting where price will go and i will be working on that this week. Are there any particular markets or indices where you feel you have a high hit rate. I know, with other approaches the AUD/USD used to be a thorn in my side while the EUR/JPY used to be my good friend.
Alien thought for the day:
besides news=which is a minefield, do you use also other indi's besides the aliens v1 and v2.
eg harmonics,pivots,tdi etc.
what's your mix? and which TF is most important for your mix? ok, mine is d/4/h, but perhaps 4 is leading. has sometimes a delay of 2 days.
when using other mixes, which TF? how many items have to be ok to go for a trade? a h trade has another mix than d, or perhaps less items to be ok/green for the trade.
which mix at which tf, and how many indi's of the mix has to be "ok or green" to make a trade.?
"European and USA market sentiment reversed during Thursday afternoon’s New York trading session, following on from Chinese equity markets selling off sharply, during Thursday morning’s Asian trading session. The slump over the past twenty four hours, in global equity markets, wasn’t necessarily related to any social media narrative published by the Trump administration, or defensive rhetoric from China. Instead, collective market wisdom has finally developed; the realisation that China and the USA will both lose in a protracted trade war, has begun to crystallise. Market participants have also woken up to the fact that the goods that were in transit, when Trump applied his elevated 25% import tariffs two-three weeks back, will now be docking at USA ports. Quite simply; his fellow citizens and China’s customers, will pay up to 25% more for the goods. Meanwhile, USA exports into China, such as soya beans and tobacco, are slumping in demand as Chinese customers look elsewhere for product, due to the tariffs making the product unattractive, in terms of cost. Countries closer to home, such as Vietnam, may begin to provide much of the arable goods China requires. Trump has announced a total of $28b in subsidies for USA farmers since 2018 to cope with the increased prices and lack of demand, highlighting the self defeating nature of the tariff programme. In terms of assets generating safe haven appeal, XAU/USD rose by 0.92% on the day, trading at 1,286, up 11.84 dollars per ounce. The U.S. dollar fell sharply versus its peers during the New York session, as investors took refuge in the traditional safe haven currencies of yen and the Swiss franc. At 19:45pm USD/JPY traded down -0.75%, as the bearish price action saw the major pair crash through the third level of support, S3, breaching the 110.00 handle to trade at 109.5, the lowest level printed during the past week’s sessions. USD/CHF traded down -0.69%, breaching S3, printing a low not witnessed since April 16th. The dollar index, DXY, illustrated dollar weakness across the board, trading down -0.20%, slipping below the 98.00 handle, to trade at 97.85. Further dollar weakness was revealed by EUR/USD trading up 0.28% and GBP/USD trading flat."
If you look at the interactions of the Alien v1 8sto and green sto the crosses happen almost exactly the same as the tdi, so there is arguably little to be gained from adding tdi to Alien system, choose one or the other. I have not looked into harmonics and pivots but do not see why they could not be combined with Alien. madboy4u3 says he gets great results combining Alien with PVSA see quote.
That is all I can say on this.
i use pivots and harmonics for PA but also alien and tdi for extra confirmation. so i have several points for each currency pair to check. i've noticed i have more room to play=signals have to be less perfect because of my 5-6 points which i check. at the end of the process i only look at the graph without anything=clean graph, than i make a choice. i don't use volume for longer trades, doesn't help me. only very small TF you need volume, it's another game.
but each tf has another dynamic, can u risque more when use smaller tf? iow aliens signals have to be less perfect?
when taking a trade for days on end, i have to be more certain, there also fewer trades a week to be made, those ones sometimes 2 a week.
at the moment i only have 16 pairs which i check, it costs me 25 minutes total. follow news all day.
Im going to try and put together a workable scalping strategy with three conditions to look for on V01;
1: RSIOMA being compressed
2: BB squeeze and trade in direction of RSIOMA
3. Delayed stochastic snap back.
I will only trade in one direction based on a trend on a higher time frame. I am only going to be looking at 4 markets. I think i have a fair money management approach. I've been testing this week and I will see if i can turn it into a positive strategy.
Ill let you know the results after 20 days.
In fact, (& nothing to do with scalping sorry), for me it's when lower TF BBS breaks 'cascade' into a higher TF BBS break that Alien system gives best probability signal, less chance of fake out on the higher TF.
& check out ebitalebi's posts for similar concept. He traded from M5 based on established trend on H4, using RSIOMA & ADX.
M5 ADX also provided exit signal, which I think works on that TF, but can be too slow to respond to pullbacks on higher TFs.
well, there is a difference between the stochs and tdi. the tdi is more refined and sometimes gives other direction, especially when movements are very small. the stoch and RSI are a great combo. almost never use the adx, perhaps adx is for the smallest TF?
Please do news from New Zealand also affect AUD
this is my first post and i want to show you, how im trading the alien system. Its mostly the V1 version of it with a few additional indicators.
For me the most helpfull indicator is the TMA Band indicator. With this indicator im able to find good spots to trade. Im not trading against bottoms or tops anymore.
Im looking for setups on two timeframes. M5 und M30.
On M5 im only taking trades if M30 and H4 is in line.
On M30 im only taking trades if H4 and Daily is in line.
Here are my Rules: (for M30 Setup)
1. trades only taken if the prices is in both Band ( H4 and Daily)
2. The price on M30 must reach or touch the outer TMA Band
3. H4 RSIOMA, DAily RSIOMA must be in line.
4. H4 21.10.10 must be in line / Daily 8.3.3 must be in line
why do u use 30m? really curious to know= your thinking why this tf
most use 15m and h.
how long do you take the trade?
with h4 and D in line, those trades can take days. it's another dynamic/wave than h and less. there is even a big difference in waves between 4h and d.
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