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jpadvisor Apr 26, 2019 1:33pm | Post# 21581

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1st post in 5 years or so, is the Alien still around . Wanted to share my thoughts and get opinions on EURUSD for a longer term 6-8 months trade on EURUSD for a short. Carries a nice swap depending on broker (0.65 on mine, or 5eu per lot per day), but will open other account for this one trade specificaly (0.87 swap). Looking at the weekly and the monthly and the fundamentals this seems like a no brainer, on the daily the struggle of TPTB to keep it up are clear, but imo they wont be able to fight the fundamental EU issues. -Fundamentals,...
Hi alien friend,
as I am mostly a daytrader I can't tell much about a montly chart.
However in these situations I usually have a look at Elliot and so I found this montly count.
From fundi I dare say that next BCE president will be for sure more hawkish than Draghi and will raise the interest rate in 2020.
This is my two cents.
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Zimbinga Apr 26, 2019 3:54pm | Post# 21582

I can now see why Alien master simplified v2, but I think v1 8sto & green sto are more precise than DDS which is smoothed.

I'm looking at 8sto/green sto crosses from top down - they are usually powerful on D1 & H4.

Then if you drill down & trade the crosses in the same direction on the smaller TFs H1/M15 you are following the wave within wave principle which is fundamental to this system.

This of course is not a new thing - Alien always talk about MTF analysis.

My point is that:
1) I think these crosses are more precise and timely than RSIOMA. It even works with slingshot, the cross is simply at the top or bottom of chart.
2) If you are driving your trades from higher TF crosses, there is usually sufficient momentum inherent in that for a tradeable move - so you don't therefore need ADX.

I've not properly tested this yet - anyone agree or disagree?

Zimbinga Apr 26, 2019 4:03pm | Post# 21583

And applying the above thinking to Jeff's trade idea - we can see 8sto/green sto half cross on Monthly TF for EUR/USD, also 8sto has fully crossed 100 sto. So higher TF signal short is established - but this is not our entry.

Now we wait for Weekly TF 8sto to cross the green sto short and then we check Daily TF before entering short to make sure Daily has not bottomed and ideally fresh sto cross short on Daily too.

jeffmichaels Apr 26, 2019 5:07pm | Post# 21584

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{quote} I'd say yellow, but it is losing symmetry if it doesn't break soon. Will step back to see what any others have to say. Marco used to like Monthly & weekly TFs.
Yeah, curious also for some more opinions especially from long term traders. For the HS im thinking somewhere between the blue/purple and the yellow.
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A downward sloping HS appearently is a stronger setup then a horizontal or upward. What did you think about that bearish divergence on the sto8 on that weekly chart from my previous post?

{quote} Hi alien friend, as I am mostly a daytrader I can't tell much about a montly chart. However in these situations I usually have a look at Elliot and so I found this montly count. From fundi I dare say that next BCE president will be for sure more hawkish than Draghi and will raise the interest rate in 2020. This is my two cents. {image}
Agreed on the BCE but that would be within the considered trade timeframe. And also Trump has been fighting the FED on keeping rates down for a while so it damn well possible that US would reraise so to say . But definitly something to keep in mind as it would nulify or minimize the carry trade potential which is a very good aspect of it, basically 8 points per day, which considering ATR is a pretty good deal.
Looking at your posted chart it concurs with my extended target of parity that I mentioned before, also timeframe wise (~8 months) and lining up with your comment on ECB 2020, but the bounce back would never break that channel imo. There is no way EU will let it get that high, i mean exports, USD Bonds and T bills held in reserve across EU countries, weak candidate states, Greece is worse than it was during the Greek crises, Italy collision course plus financial mess, spain 40% youth unemployment, all those immigrants that are not gonna be contributing are gonna start impacting the macro numbers at some point, f*ck France whats happening there with them yellow vests, the rise and growth of parties opposing an EU thats too powerfull, and then all the drama between member states. And again I forgot Brexit. Geez wrting it down I'm thinking I'm gonna sell the house and ride this baby to the bottom!! LOL
But seriously the place is a mess and it lacks clear leadership or even leadership at all.

And applying the above thinking to Jeff's trade idea - we can see 8sto/green sto half cross on Monthly TF for EUR/USD, also 8sto has fully crossed 100 sto. So higher TF signal short is established - but this is not our entry. Now we wait for Weekly TF 8sto to cross the green sto short and then we check Daily TF before entering short to make sure Daily has not bottomed and ideally fresh sto cross short on Daily too.
I don't know about this v2 you mention, I didnt read up on the 500 pages or so since my last posts. Where to find it, I will do a search myself also, but in case I dont find it tell me please.
When you look at the daily it's hard not to make the case of market manipulation in my opinion, but still I would make an entry based on M,W,D,H4. Depending on how it plays out I may stack but I'd rather not and just do 1 entry of several lots where I reckon a 100 pip stoploss would suffice, and then check back in once a week and more frequently when its starting to come to either way end.
This brings me to a question, that 100 pip stoploss, question being how volatile are news events nowadays regarding dumps, soars, spread widening and so, dont want to get taken out by news noise.....

Zimbinga Apr 26, 2019 5:26pm | Post# 21585

{quote} I was ?
@Jeff - read forward from above post.

Alien was away long time then came back with a new approach. Different RSI indi & MTF DDS indi, which emonts reproduced for the thread.

Zimbinga Apr 26, 2019 5:41pm | Post# 21586

{quote} A downward sloping HS appearently is a stronger setup then a horizontal or upward. What did you think about that bearish divergence on the sto8 on that weekly chart from my previous post? ..
I don't trade technical patterns except range breakout as per Alien BBS break, but my understanding too is that the downward slope makes for a stronger bearish signal on H&S.

The bearish div you refer to is clearly there - but it is looking historic now.

Anyway as mentioned I would look for 8sto/green sto cross on Weekly to confirm signal.

jeffmichaels Apr 26, 2019 6:02pm | Post# 21587

{quote} @Jeff - read forward from above post. Alien was away long time then came back with a new approach. Different RSI indi & MTF DDS indi, which emonts reproduced for the thread.
Cheers Pal!
Gonna do some catching up then..

marcof91 Apr 28, 2019 10:56am | Post# 21588

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This is my view on EU guys...
Price can go down more but i think should rest now.
Bullish divergence on weekly 21 sto and daily 21 sto too but not confirmed.
Monthly,weekly and daily DDS are in the bottom so shorts could be near the end.
I wouldn't mind for EU to make a new low, i can always buy it cheaper.
Monthly TF
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Weekly TF
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Daily TF
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Zimbinga Apr 28, 2019 2:25pm | Post# 21589

This is my view on EU guys... Price can go down more but i think should rest now. Bullish divergence on weekly 21 sto and daily 21 sto too but not confirmed. Monthly,weekly and daily DDS are in the bottom so shorts could be near the end. I wouldn't mind for EU to make a new low, i can always buy it cheaper. Monthly TF {image} Weekly TF {image} Daily TF {image}
Good to see you back again.

Your charts are also a good example of how well 8sto/green sto crosses work on higher TFs.

Zimbinga Apr 29, 2019 3:29pm | Post# 21590

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I can now see why Alien master simplified v2, but I think v1 8sto & green sto are more precise than DDS which is smoothed. I'm looking at 8sto/green sto crosses from top down - they are usually powerful on D1 & H4. Then if you drill down & trade the crosses in the same direction on the smaller TFs H1/M15 you are following the wave within wave principle which is fundamental to this system. This of course is not a new thing - Alien always talk about MTF analysis. My point is that: 1) I think these crosses are more precise and timely than RSIOMA. It...
I took pips shorting Gold today using above thinking.

H4 chart - 8sto cross green sto short. (red line on 1st chart below)
H1 chart - 8sto half cross short gives entry. (2nd red line on 2nd chart below)
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Zimbinga Apr 29, 2019 3:36pm | Post# 21591

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& exit was found at H1 8sto cross green sto long (red line)
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jeffmichaels Apr 29, 2019 7:40pm | Post# 21592

This is my view on EU guys... Price can go down more but i think should rest now. Bullish divergence on weekly 21 sto and daily 21 sto too but not confirmed. Monthly,weekly and daily DDS are in the bottom so shorts could be near the end. I wouldn't mind for EU to make a new low, i can always buy it cheaper. Monthly TF {image} Weekly TF {image} Daily TF {image}
Yes agreed Marco, like i said in my original post first some rest or a small bounce that way ADX which you said looked disorganised can also fully compress.
I guess we can all agree that weekly and monthly ADX's are compressing so a good longer term move is about to happen in the near future.
Also I would like to know what MTF ADX you guys use, and Marco what that 2nd line is on your monthly DDS, shouldnt it be only 1 line on a monthly chart. On a sidenote I thought would be nice to get a yearly line in there as well.
I'm reading up on that v2 system and I see what you guys meant about get ready for longs although it still looks like it can still take several steps down first, so several months. Also the OBOS regression indie is below the 0 line and signal below histo on bot the daily and weekly. On the monthly chart the indie looks like it will cross the 0-line downwards in the next couple of months.
I also considered dollar index strenghth in my conclusion and looked at Gold charts in eur and usd, btw

marcof91 Apr 30, 2019 5:45pm | Post# 21593

{quote} Yes agreed Marco, like i said in my original post first some rest or a small bounce that way ADX which you said looked disorganised can also fully compress. I guess we can all agree that weekly and monthly ADX's are compressing so a good longer term move is about to happen in the near future. Also I would like to know what MTF ADX you guys use, and Marco what that 2nd line is on your monthly DDS, shouldnt it be only 1 line on a monthly chart. On a sidenote I thought would be nice to get a yearly line in there as well. I'm reading...
{quote}Marco what that 2nd line is on your monthly DDS
It's RSIOMA my friend.
{quote} On a sidenote I thought would be nice to get a yearly line in there as well.
You can look at 100 sto in the monthly chart...that's 21 sto direction in the yearly timeframe.

jpadvisor May 2, 2019 5:49am | Post# 21594

After FED decision:
"On Friday May 3rd, at 13:30pm U.K. time, the latest NFP jobs data will be published. In the same week as the NFP data is published, the latest ADP payrolls data is usually released on the preceding Wednesday. On Wednesday May 1st, the ADP data came in at 275k for April, ahead of the Reuters forecast of 180k. This reading is often regarded as a portent of the NFP number; historically a high ADP reading is matched by a high NFP result. The ISM data series is highly respected and ranks as high impact, due to it illustrating the overall strength of the USA manufacturing base. And whilst the main U.S. equity indices are continuing to reach record highs during recent sessions, the (arguably) real economy still appears to be fragile, irrespective of the volume of new jobs recently created. That fragility might have been on the mind of the FOMC heads of the regional Federal banks, as they voted to keep the USA key upper bound interest rate at 2.5%. The statement from the Fed chair Jerome Powell was neutral, stating that USA economic activity has been rising at a solid rate and that the labour market still remains strong. The Committee also reaffirmed its position that it will remain cautious and patient regarding any further policy firming; raising rates. The U.S. dollar whipsawed in narrow ranges versus several peers, shortly after the press conference, both USD/JPY and USD/CHF rose from their previous positions of posting daily lows, to break up through the daily pivot points, at 22:30pm U.K. time both USD/JPY and USD/CHF traded close to flat."

Zimbinga May 3, 2019 3:05pm | Post# 21595

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+49pips today on Gold

H1 chart:
1st red line is H4 8sto cross long. I wait until after NFP then take trade with H1 8sto cross long.
When trading this way, angle of green sto must not be strong against trade direction, especially on the lower TF chart used for timing entry.
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Kammgcni May 3, 2019 11:00pm | Post# 21596

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Made Good profit in Copper yesterday. Thanks Zimbinga and All active members of this wonderful thread.
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marcof91 May 4, 2019 3:20am | Post# 21597

Motivation is garbage
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...03661393104182

hugomarques May 4, 2019 10:37am | Post# 21598

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Good morning my alien friends, after this decade series, we can see our system is solid and we can predict everything in the market, opened my mind and vision to understand how the forex markets work.
I'm almost completing my 5,000 hours of market research, and becoming an alien master

I'm negotiating with the modified v2 version, and this is paying off.
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hugomarques May 4, 2019 4:18pm | Post# 21599

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Rare moment, when the force makes adx, it exceeds the limits, can give a great opportunity of sale, retraction this next


Who likes to trade CFDs, like me, is very volatile for daytrader
I mix V1 with V2, it's automatic in my mind, analyze the STOCHs
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Zimbinga May 5, 2019 1:48pm | Post# 21600

{quote} Your new approach reminds me of a user named Lastingwell. She died now but she successfully used MTF TDI. Although the tool was different, I believe the basic concept was similar. (Actually, she also tried MTF Stochastics months before she died.) I was once MTF lover but now I don't like MTF much mainly because it's repainting and therefore useless to backtesting. I prefer higher period setups to MTF (at the cost of choppiness.) However, now it's a good time to revisit MTF. Thank you...
Thank you for telling us about Lastingwell.

I have benefited from reading her posts and Big E & phx62.


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