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-   -   I will either make it in Forex, or die trying (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/448677-i-will-either-make-it-in-forex-or)

Pip Commando Sep 20, 2013 12:28am | Post# 1

I will either make it in Forex, or die trying
 
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HISTORY

  1. Dabbled in Forex for a few years, but was never serious about it.
  2. Didn't have patience, kept jumping from one method to another.
  3. Went around in circles, kept losing or just below breakeven.
  4. A few times, I was profitable for a few months, but the market phase changed and I started losing again.
  5. I used to trade like this

    1. 50% technical indicators
    2. 30% price action
    3. 20% money management
    4. 0% fundamentals

  6. After avoiding fundamentals for so long, I decided to give it a go.
  7. Suddenly realized that fundamentals were a big part of trading, and everything started to click for me.
  8. Price charts started to make sense.
  9. Now, I trade like this

    1. 20% technical indicators
    2. 10% price action
    3. 30% money management
    4. 40% fundamentals

  10. I started this thread to keep myself publicly accountable for keeping trade records.

DECLARATION

I will either make it in Forex, or die trying.

WAR CRY

I live and die by the pips I capture and keep.
I do not take the market head on. That is suicide.
There is no honor and glory in what I do.
The market will show neither mercy nor sentiment.
Survival is key.
Preparation is everything.

CHART SETUP

4 hour bar chart
Simple moving average period 30
Simple moving average period 60
Average True Range period 21
Currencies traded: usd, eur, gbp, aud, cad, jpy, chf

BATTLEFIELD STUDIES (Fundamentals)

Track economic indicators and news sentiment.

MISSION START CRITERIA (Trade Entry)

Must be in direction of fundamental sentiment
30SMA leading 60SMA
RSI not at overbought/oversold areas
Entry will be made at 30SMA

MISSION FAIL CRITERIA (Stop Loss)

6 x ATR behind Entry

MISSION OBJECTIVE (Target Profit)

Primary Objective: 6 x ATR ahead of Entry
Secondary Objective: 2 x ATR ahead of Entry

REINFORCEMENTS (Scaling in)

Maximum of 2 additional entries, 2 x ATR behind each previous Entry

AMMUNITION MANAGEMENT (Money Management)

[CLASSIFIED]

OTHERS

Questions and opinions are welcome.
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mim2005 Sep 20, 2013 4:22am | Post# 2

Hi Pip Commando,

I look forwards to reading your posts and love your declaration ... "I will either make it in Forex, or die trying."

Cheers,

mim2005

Pip Commando Sep 20, 2013 5:08am | Post# 3

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Hi mim2005, thanks. In the past, I was never really serious about trading and my results reflected that.

Now, I'm determined to make this work.

I have just taken a trade on usdcad.

Sell @ 1.0288

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Davit Sep 20, 2013 10:10am | Post# 4

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Hi Pip
You are on right track.
40% on fundamentals is about how much banks,hedge funds place importance and only 16% technical rest is sentiment and order flow.
If I may suggest add 20-80 levels on RSI.Usually price runs out of steam at those numbers. 70 does not mean overbought.Actually RSI reading can be interpreted on different levels depending on your time period.What looks way overbought on 1hr looks moderate on h4 and looks dead even on daily and under on monthly.So having TF perspective is critical.
Anyway wish you the best!
Here is a nice ADR as a gift.Clean and informative
ADR_v2.ex4

Davit Sep 20, 2013 10:21am | Post# 5

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Hi mim2005, thanks. In the past, I was never really serious about trading and my results reflected that. Now, I'm determined to make this work. I have just taken a trade on usdcad. Sell @ 1.0288 {image}

not a high probability trade.
With yesterdays positive numbers on unemployment there is a good chance greenbacks getting stronger and continue to get stronger until end of year.
You are selling at support.If you like to go short better pair is GC.Just my 2c
Having said this market can do anything including going your way so keep that in mind.When price is "trapped" between 20-30MA and 200MA then in my view 200MA takes more importance.If you look at daily price "hugs" 200MA unless you see a clear break.
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seaman2 Sep 20, 2013 10:27am | Post# 6

BRAVO !!!!

that is the attitude! You are going to make real big when you live thru market conditions second, third time. And to do this takes long time.

you have expanded trading into 2 dimensions TA & fundamentals. While at it, you may throw in third dimension - sentiment, like COT, stuff like that.

that will improve your hit rate bit more.

Pip Commando Sep 20, 2013 10:37am | Post# 7

Hi Pip You are on right track. 40% on fundamentals is about how much banks,hedge funds place importance and only 16% technical rest is sentiment and order flow. If I may suggest add 20-80 levels on RSI.Usually price runs out of steam at those numbers. 70 does not mean overbought.Actually RSI reading can be interpreted on different levels depending on your time period.What looks way overbought on 1hr looks moderate on h4 and looks dead even on daily and under on monthly.So having TF perspective is critical. Anyway wish you the best! Here is a nice...
I did not know that banks and hedge funds trade 40% on fundamentals... I hope this is good news for me. (haha)

Thank you for the input on the time frame... The RSI will be used only on the 4 hour charts, so I think that should be okay.

Since I trade retracements, the RSI is simply used to avoid taking trades in overbought/oversold situations where prices may reverse. Also, it can be used to spot divergences.

Thank you for the ADR indicator... I'll definitely check it out.

Pip Commando Sep 20, 2013 10:41am | Post# 8

{quote} not a high probability trade. With yesterdays positive numbers on unemployment there is a good chance greenbacks getting stronger and continue to get stronger until end of year. You are selling at support.If you like to go short better pair is GC.Just my 2c Having said this market can do anything including going your way so keep that in mind.When price is "trapped" between 20-30MA and 200MA then in my view 200MA takes more importance.If you look at daily price "hugs" 200MA unless you see a clear break.
My reason for this trade was mostly due to the non-tapering surprise we saw on Wednesday.

USD is weakening across the board and I'm looking to see if prices can make one last push down.

But you're right, I see strong support around 1.0200 - 1.0130 so I won't be looking to hold onto this trade for long.

Thanks again.

Pip Commando Sep 20, 2013 10:43am | Post# 9

BRAVO !!!! that is the attitude! You are going to make real big when you live thru market conditions second, third time. And to do this takes long time. you have expanded trading into 2 dimensions TA & fundamentals. While at it, you may throw in third dimension - sentiment, like COT, stuff like that. that will improve your hit rate bit more.
Hi Seaman,

Yes I find fundamentals and sentiment to be very helpful in finding out the "story" of the market... which is really useful for trading.

Davit Sep 20, 2013 10:49am | Post# 10

{quote} I did not know that banks and hedge funds trade 40% on fundamentals... I hope this is good news for me. (haha) Thank you for the input on the time frame... The RSI will be used only on the 4 hour charts, so I think that should be okay. Since I trade retracements, the RSI is simply used to avoid taking trades in overbought/oversold situations where prices may reverse. Also, it can be used to spot divergences. Thank you for the ADR indicator... I'll definitely check it out.

Think backwards
Start from weekly,daily then h4.To me for h4 daily is king.What I am trying to say RSI "overbought and Oversold" is relative to TF frame.You must really understand this deeply otherwise you may enter a trade thinking "oversold" when in fact price barely scarping the surface on daily.
Anyway green pips I may have already over posted here.

Pip Commando Sep 20, 2013 11:03am | Post# 11

Think backwards Start from weekly,daily then h4.To me for h4 daily is king.What I am trying to say RSI "overbought and Oversold" is relative to TF frame.You must really understand this deeply otherwise you may enter a trade thinking "oversold" when in fact price barely scarping the surface on daily. Anyway green pips I may have already over posted here.
Yes... In the past I always looked from weekly > daily > 4 hour charts.

But in the end I would always miss out on profits on the 4 hour TF because the daily TF was showing a different thing... maybe I am too much of a perfectionist.

So this time I've decided to stick mainly to the 4 hour TF, with the daily TF playing a secondary role.

I am not too concerned about this entry being right, because I will have reinforcements coming in, should prices go against the initial entry.

By the way, thanks for looking out for me... I appreciate your advice and support. Keep 'em coming!

Pip Commando Sep 22, 2013 7:59am | Post# 12

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Over the weekend I reviewed the Canadian economic indicators and discovered an error with the way certain values are tracked on my spreadsheet.

Previously, the numbers showed that the Canadian economy was doing well... but after my review, weak GDP and retail sales figures revealed that the economy wasn't as strong as I initially thought.

Now, my view of the Canadian economy is neutral. Previously, it was strong.

Another factor to consider is weakening oil prices, since a military strike in Syria has recently been averted.

Thankfully, the USD is still weak which would cushion any strengthening of the USDCAD.

However, this may not last for long, since we are reaching the 1.0200 - 1.0150 support/demand area.

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With this new information it is clear that the primary objective for this mission is no longer worth the risk.

When the market opens on Monday I will withdraw my troops with as few casualties as possible.

Pip Commando Sep 23, 2013 3:18am | Post# 13

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I have gotten out of the usdcad with no casualties.

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Pip Commando Sep 23, 2013 3:41am | Post# 14

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There might be a set up on the eurusd soon...

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Pip Commando Sep 23, 2013 11:43pm | Post# 15

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Usd remains mostly week across risk assets.

My eye is still on eurusd, although I believe there is limited room to the upside.

Note the RSI divergence.

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Pip Commando Sep 24, 2013 6:41am | Post# 16

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Mission initiated on eurusd.

Got in at 1.3476.

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Pip Commando Sep 25, 2013 9:02am | Post# 17

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The mission is underway and the stop loss has been moved to the entry price.

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Pip Commando Sep 26, 2013 12:16pm | Post# 18

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Mission #2 is over.

It did not go as expected, but no good pips were lost in the process.

As long as there are no casualties, it is a good mission.

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Pip Commando Sep 29, 2013 10:36pm | Post# 19

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- Looming U.S. budget and debt ceiling debates are weighing on risk sentiment
- S&P gapped down at the market opening, trend is changing
- T-note gapped up, continues uptrend
- Oil gapped down, continues downtrend

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- I expect jpy and chf to benefit from this risk-off sentiment, as usd strength is likely to be hampered by the budget and debt ceiling issues right now
- aud is the worst-hit of the risk-seeking currencies
- I am looking to sell cadjpy and audchf
- check: no major technical support levels nearby

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What might cause the trend to reverse (reasons for the trade to fail)
- cad: dramatic GDP number increase later tonight
- aud: interest rate increase tomorrow

Pip Commando Sep 30, 2013 11:50am | Post# 20

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The yen is strengthening across the board, and I will hold off starting a mission on the cadjpy until I can figure out what's going on.

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