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-   -   Which Trading System Or Strategy Is The Most Profitable? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=447929)

tomorton Aug 13, 2019 9:06am | Post# 61

I've made money using various different approaches to trading, but the one that remains consistent and has an acceptable risk with low probability of wipe-out is long-term trend-following.

The system currently in use is simple - for an uptrend I look for the 20EMA to be above the 50EMA and both sloping upwards on the D1 chart. Once this picture is in place I set a buy order at yesterday's high, if yesterday's high was lower then the prior day's. Initial SL is 3ATR20 from entry so rarely gets hit. Positions are closed for profit within 3-5 days usually.

tzamo Aug 14, 2019 3:45am | Post# 62

I have studied and tested many strategies and to me the most profitable and consistent is mean reversion. I am not referring to the various FF threads that use that term improperly, but to the actual application of it. There is a generic mean that normally depicts the line between buyers and sellers. If you follow that line through at least two time frames, you increase the mathematical probability of making profit. Since it is a mean, an oscillating indicator, capable of measuring the full range of price, can help determine the apexes of price...
Dear Dkrock,

What an awesome post, thank you for posting your experiences with the studies you have done. I have similar findings with short target mean reversion, although I may have not approached it as you have described with the actual mean of buyers and sellers. Regarding most profitable; it can really depend on the strategies balance as well as execution (yes I think it is fair to consider if the trader can actually pull off trading the strategy as well, if not a measure of the EA trading the strategy if possible can also work). For example, the balance of Risk to Reward ratio (RRR) vs trade success rate can be shifted, and together make up the over-all expectancy (if everything else is constant and does not change). One could even have low RRR like 0.5 and maintain a profitable strategy outcome if the success rate is high, but from what I have found is that usually adjusting RRR up leads to a lower success rate % and increases drawdown volatility/ deviation. To me, it seems one must find the balance that they are able to cope with, tolerate and keep executing without being affected by drawdown runs.

Another interesting thing mentioned was that "A trend is just a range on a higher time frame.". It really does look like that, and what I want to add is that these ranges also expand and contract to form larger or smaller ranges.

Best Regards,
Tzamo

pipsKeeper Aug 14, 2019 5:24am | Post# 63

The most profitable strategy should be a system that is based on fundamental analysis and long term trading. Such trading includes a long duration positions with a great pips result. This is probably one of the most complex systems, but it can also bring big profits to someone who knows how to properly analyze politics and economics.

biglivetrade Aug 14, 2019 6:03am | Post# 64

Yesterday I have taken a buy call in crude oil at 3899 and exited from the call Yesterday 09:20 pm at 4055

Total Profit: 156

directxxx Aug 14, 2019 6:42am | Post# 65

{quote} Yes I am a battle-scarred veteran of the trading trenches. Started in 1990 by learning TA. Suckered in by the appearance of how simple it would be with just a moving average. Became an obsession. Been searching for an answer as to how to trade ever since. Been down the road of searching for the Holy Grail, trying to optimise indicators, thinking there was something wrong with me etc . It has taken many years to realise that both TA and FA are just plain crap and so is psychology (if this book/course doesn't improve your results then you...
The market is manipulated......There is the answer. Accept that you operate in an environment which is manipulated. Don't ask why, just accept that fact.
Now learn to 'read' price to position yourself in the same direction ... HTF supply and demand will help as will other things. TA will not help. Neither will Funnymentals. COT will not help either otherwise all the Fund Managers would be right. We KNOW this to be incorrect as they don't seem to be able to best the market averages. The only thing that is true in trading is that price moves .... Your job is to find out... not why but where and when. The 'WHY' is irrelevant.

If you learn enough about price to be on the right side of a move you will not be concerned with developing a 'system'

This all looks a bit cryptic.

KeenPips Aug 14, 2019 6:48am | Post# 66

None! It depends on the personality behind the system or strategy.

KP

directxxx Aug 14, 2019 7:10am | Post# 67

The most profitable strategy should be a system that is based on fundamental analysis and long term trading. Such trading includes a long duration positions with a great pips result. This is probably one of the most complex systems, but it can also bring big profits to someone who knows how to properly analyze politics and economics.
That will keep you as part of the 95 ers... Fundamentals do not tell you 'where' the market is heading. Or where it is likely to stop and reverse. It just helps to get there.

tiborf71 Aug 14, 2019 8:02am | Post# 68

None! It depends on the personality behind the system or strategy. KP
I don't use strategies where I have to bring my personality in.
I hate gambling.
just the raw facts.

KeenPips Aug 14, 2019 10:00am | Post# 69

What you said confirmed my point. Whatever you do reflects your personality.

KP

{quote} I don't use strategies where I have to bring my personality in. I hate gambling. just the raw facts.

directxxx Aug 14, 2019 10:04am | Post# 70

What you said confirmed my point. Whatever you do reflects your personality. KP {quote}
NO it doesn't ....what I am referring to has nothing to do with personality.

KeenPips Aug 14, 2019 10:20am | Post# 71

Even robotic systems and EAs - mechanical strategies - reflect the user's personality. No system or strategy happens by itself except the user is involved.

Trade safe mate.

KP

{quote} NO it doesn't ....what I am referring to has nothing to do with personality.

Marcieny Aug 14, 2019 10:27am | Post# 72

Every trader needs to find out what works for hymself.
If the trader has a profile and doesn't respect that profile ... he will get stressed in the trade and lose money.
Is crucial to work technique and mind

KeenPips Aug 14, 2019 10:30am | Post# 73

100% in agreement with you there. Different traders can work the same strategy or system and have different results; even mechanical systems.

KP

Every trader needs to find out what works for hymself. If the trader has a profile and doesn't respect that profile ... he will get stressed in the trade and lose money. Is crucial to work technique and mind

directxxx Aug 14, 2019 10:30am | Post# 74

Even robotic systems and EAs - mechanical strategies - reflect the user's personality. No system or strategy happens by itself except the user is involved. Trade safe mate. KP {quote}
Sorry KP. The only way a system will make money is if you are already on the right side of that trade. No amount of personality will make that trade move towards your intended target. Wishing and hoping (personality) will achieve the objective. Price moves independantly of your wants/needs. It moves because that is where it is going.

KeenPips Aug 14, 2019 10:32am | Post# 75

How do you know you are on the right side of the trade if your personality is not involved? Wishing and hoping are not the only aspects of personality, so also are sound market analysis, good choice of functional strategies, market knowledge, discipline etc.


KP

{quote} Sorry KP. The only way a system will make money is if you are already on the right side of that trade. No amount of personality will make that trade move towards your intended target. Wishing and hoping (personality) will achieve the objective. Price moves independantly of your wants/needs. It moves because that is where it is going.

Marcieny Aug 14, 2019 10:42am | Post# 76

100% in agreement with you there. Different traders can work the same strategy or system and have different results; even mechanical systems. KP {quote}
Yeah ...There are many ways to achieve the same result.

tiborf71 Aug 14, 2019 10:46am | Post# 77

for me the possibilities created the system, I had no choice.
only opportunities dictated the rules.
it may not reflect my personality.

TradeMinim Aug 14, 2019 11:19am | Post# 78

Which Trading System Or Strategy Is The Most Profitable?

None on FF so far i see. The trading system sections are filled with systems and strategies with NO proven track record.
It also all depends on how you define profitable. 5% a year? 10% a year? 100% a year?

I have a profitable system that I can pass to traders interested, but ANYONE will break my system even though it's proven profitable
because of lack of trust and discipline in the system, which both requires time and experience to build.

lechuzon Aug 14, 2019 11:21am | Post# 79

3 Attachment(s)
I dont know if my system is the most profitable... but I least i can sleep well..

this system I developed.. very reliable, steady, RELAXED..just and example..how a system..could be profitable..

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/olimpia/relax/2952282

It's just multipair trading with math logics .. its the way that I know to being profitable, doesnt matter what market is doing..is not the best strategy... but ALSO is not the worst.

Here the indicator of "equity balance" that I use to show my performance..

and yes.. FF results are fake.. show LESS than my trade system has done....... 363% not 249%
Click to Enlarge

Name: relax.png
Size: 196 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: relax2.png
Size: 59 KB
EquityV7.mq4

tiborf71 Aug 14, 2019 11:30am | Post# 80

ff has a lot of fake systems that don't work, I wonder why many people stick to it.
you just need to test it and move on.


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