I apologise if you perceive this post as annoying, but would you mind sharing some of your knowledge with a struggling trader such as myself?
If you can find the time to send me a simple message, I would appreciate it.
If we want to understand more on these moves, where shall we start from?
I am in dark!
2. Price patterns are subjective because we can each see different things on charts. Who is right? Anyone or nobody? Was a move that appears on a chart a significant move (i.e. were the big boys involved?) or was it just minor fluctuations on small volumes - unfortunately the chart doesn't tell us. No chart tells us what the intention of the big players is. Are you being suckered into a trade? The price can't tell us.
3. I do not trade once in a month. I can hold positions for several months and Sometimes I hold positions in different instruments. For example I have held a GBP position for a few weeks already and entered a AUD position last week. I check my charts once a week to ensure I am trading with the big boys and not against them. I do not claim that my method is perfect but it is far more profitable than what 95% of traders experience.
4. If you want to trade long-term charts you need large stop losses or risk being closed out.
5. Yes you went to right place. But also explore on internet as other people provide COT charts with price charts which makes things easy to follow.
6. I shall post a chart later
7. I leave others to answer this question
Here is the AUDUSD COT chart as it was last week
The blue line is the weekly trend line - I try to make it as steep as possible. Exit when a weekly candle closes below the trend line in an uptrend or above the weekly candle in a downtrend. Enter long when the CoT is rising and so is the weekly trend line or enter short when the weekly trend is down and so is the CoT. In this way one is aligning one's trades with the big boys. If the CoT and the weekly trend start to diverge then hold the weekly trend until the price closes across the trend line
CoT (large speculators) and trend going in same direction is the ideal.
Yes I am a battle-scarred veteran of the trading trenches. Started in 1990 by learning TA. Suckered in by the appearance of how simple it would be with just a moving average. Became an obsession. Been searching for an answer as to how to trade ever since. Been down the road of searching for the Holy Grail, trying to optimise indicators, thinking there was something wrong with me etc . It has taken many years to realise that both TA and FA are just plain crap and so is psychology (if this book/course doesn't improve your results then you must have psychological problems! My ass!). What a cop out, blame the student if your method doesn't work! 10 000hours to become successful? - more like 30 000 in my case to devise my own trading/investing methods.
If the common methods worked then how come "professional" fund managers fail to beat broad-based market indices? What do their methods offer that they perform so poorly? Why do 95% of forex traders fail, surely one would expect about 50% to be successful? I am tired of the BS. I believe that the answer to being successful is to understand that there has to be a "cause and effect relationship" i.e. prices change for a reason. In the forex markets I believe that the driving force is the big boys manipulating the market to set up and then cash in on their futures and options positions. I have found nothing else that correlates so well to forex price movements.
All imo, of course
Much like a gold mine which becomes known, then mined, then depleted. The long run and short run perfect competition economic curves come to mind. So unless a short term trader can adjust to the shifts fast enough (very difficult) then profits made become profits foregone. Targets once hit become stop outs. Its just a constant cycle that weeds out the old inefficiencies and in the process creates new ones.
Intraday trading is so attractive to anyone because of the potential speed in which profits could seemingly be made but like you say, that's what "everyone" does and so for that reason becomes the reason it's so hard to win long term. The FOREX market makes this short term trading dream a possibility with the leverage it offers. Anyway Im sure there are probably some successful intraday traders. I doubt they are rubbing two sticks together to make fire though.
"Which Trading System Or Strategy Is The Most Profitable?"
For the vast majority, closing their account.
Okay, not what is wanted. But it's true.
Appreaciate your reply!
However how do I get the CoT chart or the blue trendline??
Your chart is look different from mine at MT4?
PS: What is CoT stand for? Is it a line /indicator??
Updated weekly at http://cftc.gov/MarketReports/Commit...ders/index.htm under current legacy reports, futures only, chicago mercantile exchange, short format.
CoT charts: http://www.timingcharts.com/
I open timingcharts.com and attached image on EU (current)
What are the information can we gather from the chart?
What does the comm, large, specs stand for? Do them carry specific market information?
This is the Daily chart (attached image), do we need to access weekly, monthly as well?
THANKS FOR HELP!!!
Make sure you read all the info from the first link provided. In there you'll find detailed instructions on how to interpret/use CoT report.
Comm = comercials, Large= large speculators, Specs = small speculators (us included).
This info is released weekly, so I believe the weekly chart should be used. Please note that my opinion is worth what it's worth, as I don't really use this type of analysis in my trading anymore.
I was merely pointing you in the right direction to learn about CoT report. I'm sure there are plenty people here who can offer better guidance.
See this thread for instance: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=376395
vox dei has answered you questions very competently except for your query about the blue trend line I showed in my chart. I drew in that trend line and will extend it each week on my weekly chart. When the weekly price closes below that trend line that is my exit signal. Please note that this is MY way of trading this method, feel free to develop your own way or to ignore it all together.
I would just like to make one more comment - I can see that you did not spent time searching the internet if you don't even know what a CoT chart tells us (prior to vox dei replying to you) despite it being mentioned in previous posts. That is being lazy. Do your own research first (yes it takes time, why do you think it takes years to become a competent trader?), stop expecting to be spoon fed everything, and then if you have difficulties or require clarity you are most welcome to ask questions.
Truly thankful to all of you here, at least I know what I don't know! In earlier time I thought I know forex/trading if I understand about fundamental, TA, MM, trading pysco..
But you and others tell me different things...
Phiaw... I am still fresh fresh fresh newbie!!!! Got to work harder!!!!
The challenge, and what takes time, is to try this and try that and back test and live test (with real money) and read and carry on and repeat until you either find something that suits you or you lose and give up. Forex trading is hard and so is any futures market. Equities are easier to profit from because you cannot be forced to sell your position (you can still lose money though). Anyone can work hard but if it is the wrong direction then it is just a waste of time. I think you have had good guiding advice from contributors on this thread to help you on your way which should save you a lot of time. Good luck
hello, i am a beginner trader and i was fall last week and this makes me feel bad and i don't know what should i do no!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go to the following thread
this will help you
Most profitable is hard to determine, and there are various factors to consider, for example, a system may make excellent returns but expose you to a really big draw down one day ... so it was very profitable, until the music stopped and you are then dropping 50% or something.
Something to note though, is practically every tested and established strategy is profitable - but people still lose using these systems since they fail to follow it properly.
I think psychology is the real telling factor in trading.
© Forex Factory