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charvo Sep 6, 2013 4:07pm | Post# 1

Hard Way, Easy Way
 
looking back my life, i have same sadness as Al Pacino elaborated in Scent of Women.

i don't remember clearly though i love that scene very much. the colonel said: everytime in my life, when i face a cross road. one way is hard, and the other is easy. i always chose the easy one....... and now i regret......

something like that, i don't care if i remember right, but i do more and more realise the meaning of it.

but this is trading forum, this is about trading, why this hard easy crap???

i feel it is same now. when a man(or lady) approaches this business, it needs same hard/easy attitude to make it. i have to always select the 'hard' way to finally make it in this game.

i never bothered to post to warn so-called newbies NOT to do this or that as i have been a rookie too. but i feel a newbie trying to be successful here must understand the "hard" way is the way to go, NEVER take the easy way.

so don't just drag a fancy EA from a forum and expect to be rich. Even if the EA is really a great profitable system, you still cannot make money. right, that's because it is an 'easy' way. and one more observation: you can easily become/find a competent coder, but not so true for a profitable trader.

don't try to beat the market without analysis and plan but with a grid/martingale system. right, you'll lose, since it is an 'easy' way.

don't try to follow some bigshots' big shouts of buy xxx sell yyy now. you'll lose, since it is also an "easy" way.

and the "hard" way is all the things you run away from by doing "easy" crap above.

I get deeper and deeper understanding of this 'hard' and 'easy' after hundreds of hours testing in trading simulators. Ultimately, it has to be you to trade.

charvo Sep 9, 2013 3:42pm | Post# 2

95% traders lose, 5% win, the numbers may be off a bit, but not far from the truth. in fact, i believe 99% fail seemingly more close to reality.

and it all fits the fundamental of this business, even physics laws, every piece is coming together.

99% persons will not take the hard way, only 1% who takes it win in the end.

even in the market, when the price is rising, and you buy, you'll mostly be fucked up like 9x% of traders who follow buying. you have to sell, you have to do different than the 9x% so that you can end up differently from them.

this brings up a side question: we all have heard that "trade differently from the majority, and only then can you win." for past few years i've read that shit many times and never really take pains to wonder exactly "how different??? to trade". now i get the answer through my searching for something else. yes, you hear me not wrongly. you see market up, you sell; you see market down, you buy.

it is a trading way that is different, and hard, as you can imagine.

chocobaby Sep 9, 2013 9:47pm | Post# 3

Quite a nice opinion you have here chavo, however
even in the market, when the price is rising, and you buy, you'll mostly be fucked up like 9x% of traders who follow buying. you have to sell, you have to do different than the 9x% so that you can end up differently from them. this brings up a side question: we all have heard that "trade differently from the majority, and only then can you win." you see market up, you sell; you see market down, you buy. it is a trading way that is different, and hard, as you can imagine.
If u keep doing different way from the market then one day u'll probably blow up your acc, for example when the market is in an uptrend, you keep selling and go the different way without any determination about where the market will go next? You got to be specific to do this, keep thinking why you're doing the different way? Is the market has reached its peak or bottom? Is there any possible news that can change the current trend of the market? You've got to be more specific and have a better calculation before start your trade whether fundamentally or technically

charvo Sep 10, 2013 1:38am | Post# 4

you are very right, i didn't put it with specifics.

i definitely respect the overall trend on daily level (to me daily, weekly is same). i've been trying to capture breakouts, but i found that it doesn't work since there are too many fake moves.

what i'm trying to say is what i start to see: always trend with the trend, but enter only at the opposite extreme. it sounds stupid, but it has shown strong potential, and that is why i said when market is down (in lower timeframe), you (be brave to) buy. and you should be fine as daily is up. i said it that boldly is because it often seems daily trend is not that important if you enter on extreme since the price is always winding its way and tend to come back from extremes. in other words, something like contrarian trading......

If u keep doing different way from the market then one day u'll probably blow up your acc, for example when the market is in an uptrend, you keep selling and go the different way without any determination about where the market will go next? You got to be specific to do this, keep thinking why you're doing the different way?

chocobaby Sep 10, 2013 3:18am | Post# 5

Its true since following the trend could also lead to many false breakout which make us confuse whether a trend had reached a peak or bottom, basically when someone wants to trade they need to figure which timeframe they loved the most, i am saying about timeframe we love to see most, and traders had their own kind of trading scheme.

Sound silly but i'm also trying to figure out that part...
Lol

Forexnuts Sep 10, 2013 5:52am | Post# 6

Ah the contrary view - taking contrary positions can be risky especially on smaller time frames but then again, most scalpers seem to make an art out of this..
There are quite a few scalping books which advocate the same, taking contrary positions but the golden rule, never trade against the market.

FXMasterSK Sep 10, 2013 4:16pm | Post# 7

for past few years i've read that shit many times and never really take pains to wonder exactly "how different??? to trade". now i get the answer through my searching for something else. yes, you hear me not wrongly. you see market up, you sell; you see market down, you buy. it is a trading way that is different, and hard, as you can imagine.
You are on to something bigger than you could imagine...

charvo Sep 10, 2013 5:44pm | Post# 8

lol, are you saying that i'm on the right track? thanks if so.

i do feel a little excited and for the last few months i have been feeling the storm in my brain and all pieces coming together.

i met a trader on FF who implied something that's very thoughts-provoking. he seems telling me that he made much more in ranging market than in trendy days. i figured and figured and finally guess that the only way to get that is to buy when market is DOWN and sell when market is UP (always respect the bigger timeframe's bias if significant).

it turned out it does seem so, my backtests largely confirm this idea. it is simply change my habbit (i used to buy break up---fake, or sell break down---fake too many......) to get the game.

i have to make it clear that
1. i almost use none indicator, just one MA. if price XXXpips lower than the MA, good to long. you know the rest.
2. i enter very randomly, not observing a set of strict rules, i enter on guts feeling
3. i try to find why this idea can work. but the technique trading it won't work for anyone. hundreds of hours (if not thousands) simulation seem indispensable to cultivate the technique (market reading).

{quote} You are on to something bigger than you could imagine...

FXMasterSK Sep 10, 2013 9:51pm | Post# 9

lol, are you saying that i'm on the right track? thanks if so. i do feel a little excited and for the last few months i have been feeling the storm in my brain and all pieces coming together. i met a trader on FF who implied something that's very thoughts-provoking. he seems telling me that he made much more in ranging market than in trendy days. i figured and figured and finally guess that the only way to get that is to buy when market is DOWN and sell when market is UP (always respect the bigger timeframe's bias if significant). it turned out...
Smart money accumulates (buys over a length of time) when price is going down and distributes (sells over a length of time) when price is going up. They change the direction of a trend into their favor. If there was a way that we could get into a trade following smart money before the big move, we can get into trades with huge risk/ratios in our favor. Statistics can help make us profit even with just decent win ratios. It's not impossible, just keep learning and studying about the markets and its structure. But, you must be disciplined and be able to control your emotions. The markets can't be beat, but you can take your part of it.

charvo Sep 10, 2013 10:14pm | Post# 10

thanks, this is an insightful angle to observe markets, quite helpful to my understanding.

{quote} Smart money accumulates (buys over a length of time) when price is going down and distributes (sells over a length of time) when price is going up. They change the direction of a trend into their favor. If there was a way that we could get into a trade following smart money before the big move, we can get into trades with huge risk/ratios in our favor.

Kanzler Sep 10, 2013 10:36pm | Post# 11

There's no easy way here. Never was and never will be. Not trying to knock you or trash your thread with a short reply, but I think it's just the basic truth. You want a hard road, you certainly picked one. Not physically, but mentally learning to trade is filled with joy and despair...mostly the latter...and a lot of critical thinking.

jairaj Sep 10, 2013 11:43pm | Post# 12

we can also be like smart money guys me is just new, use common sense make it like a new indicator,on a demo account just dont see right dont see left just centre every hour you put a sell for 4 hours at night and during the day go out and book your profits , NO TREND no sleepless nights, me is going to try this common sense indicator

Davit Sep 11, 2013 2:37am | Post# 13

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Ah the contrary view - taking contrary positions can be risky especially on smaller time frames but then again, most scalpers seem to make an art out of this.. There are quite a few scalping books which advocate the same, taking contrary positions but the golden rule, never trade against the market.

Drinking bourbon now so have little time to chip in.
Every trading book you read "trend is your friend" BS over and over.Problem I found all these a-holes who sell books and seminars are not making money from trading but selling crap masquerading as "experts"
Amazon is full of it.Websites full of it as well.
Lets state something factual
80-90% Forex is not trending!!! Price is confined to a channel.Its basically going sideways.Let me illustrate what I mean
GC since 2010 has been in a channel and many more just like it..
I will let you feel the blanks how one can capitalize on this simple fact.To further add people who say "don't pick tops and bottoms" are idiots as well.In basic terms sell high and buy low is basic balance of energy,scale if you will. If I had the choice to buy Cable at 1.45 or 1.58 which you think is better buy!Its obvious 1.45 correct? so anyone who says shit like that are brainwashed idiots.
Watch Sam Seidon whom I respect continue pouncing the idea of buying "wholesale" prices and not retail.Problem again we got mass brainwashing.Anyone who says buy high and sell low is not living in real world unless you have 5 million account and trade turtle Donchian system which on average produce 20-60% drawdown.Between 2003-2008 Donchian breakout system made no money.
In short one must decipher lot of crap to understand and develop what works.
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Forexnuts Sep 11, 2013 6:19am | Post# 14

No arguments there..the scalping as a fine art is one line used to sell contrary positions..and as for the web, totally agree with you and it's going to be hard for anyone to disagree with that. All that you need to do is to headover to YT, check out some of the videos and they usually end with "Call us to become an expert overnight" and every time i see the sales pitch, I start out doing the LMAO..
Taking contrary positions, fair enough if a trader can make a quick buck but that's all what it works to, a quick buck and a great DD stats to look fwd to, not yet sold on it as an effective strategy..not yet but hey, post an update and will check it out.

hanover Sep 11, 2013 7:01am | Post# 15

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Every trading book you read "trend is your friend" BS over and over.Problem I found all these a-holes who sell books and seminars are not making money from trading but selling crap masquerading as "experts" Amazon is full of it.Websites full of it as well. Lets state something factual 80-90% Forex is not trending!!!
IMO a lot depends on correlation. While two currencies are positively correlated (both strong, or both weak), their pair essentially moves sideways. While they are negatively correlated (one weak, the other strong), their pair 'trends'. The greater the negative correlation, the stronger the trend.

This is illustrated in the attached screenshots. In the first image, note how AUD and NZD have been strengthening throughout September, while JPY is weakening. Pairing AUD against NZD (second image) results in largely sideways movement, while pairing AUD against JPY (third image) results in a strong upward trend.

The money flows thread helps to explain the reasons behind some of these correlations.


Here is the performance of a 'dumb' trend following EA between 2007 and early 2013. It is consistently profitable, trading only EURUSD, simply by letting winners surf D1/W1 trends. It has some losing months, but any 6 month period you choose is on-balance profitable, indicating a measure of consistency. That is because EUR and USD go through occasional periods of negative correlation, and the EA is programmed to maximize its gains during these periods. Hence IMO the trend can definitely be a powerful friend. More info about the EA in the linked post.
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charvo Sep 11, 2013 10:41am | Post# 16

this trend is your friend crap did torture me for some years. however, i cannot say i disagree to it. the reason that many people are killed by it is, i guess, because of the entries.

just like hanover's EA above, i've been looking for a robust edge, an edge that has lots of redundancy (meaning the parameter value variance doesn't really affect the + expectancy), an edge that is naturally and physically part of the market. his EA seems quite suits these requirements.

the requirement on "redundancy" and "market nature" really originated from my own character. i'm relatively impatient and suspicious.......

then i look at the market (any pair you drag) in a roughly manner. what i see is all prices WIND its way. the trail is always Z Z Z, there's occasionally straightline, but i can just stoploss and ignore them if i have to. so i still think trend could be a friend, but a friend that you cannot chase, but must await ---- repeated crap, not new at all, lol

i don't know how to effectively use mathematical tools to depict the market, and i can only see the price is always moving like a drunk. just as you say, i try to pick every top and bottom, but on the other hand, i try NOT to scalp, instead, i expect the market reverse and breaks the other side and form a trend, if not, i still exit with profit, if yes, i just hold it for more profit. in fact, more than "occasionally", the "friend" sends us lots of surprises.

maybe the saying " you can never beat the market " in fact tell you that when dating with the market "friend", you can only come early and wait, you can never beat the market on its deadly-accurate timing, lol.

{quote} Drinking bourbon now so have little time to chip in. Every trading book you read "trend is your friend" BS over and over.Problem I found all these a-holes who sell books and seminars are not making money from trading {image}

charvo Sep 11, 2013 2:34pm | Post# 17

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there are some traders, seemingly great ones, trade very mechanically, using statistical significance. e.g. every Thursday morning GMT 8 am buy higher high, sell lower low, and hold a xxx hours, and exit. and it is claimed profitable.

i traded like that before, but i'm that kind of persons can't stick to it.

nowadays, i believe that i can plan and win.


see this eurjpy monthly, i would not trade mechanically or impartially (long or short) on it. to me, it is apparently going to 138 soon.

my assumption/read (probably edge): 138 will be taken.

my guess on timing: soon.
in other words, more likely 138 first than a retrace to 125. however, it is possible, 129 will be retested before 138.

my plan: long bias

let's say i send a long everytime the stochastic(9,3,3) under 15 on 1H timeframe ---- of coz not over-exposed. i'll short for sure, but very rarely, and short at very very oversold intraday level. other than that i'll mainly long! the longs will be spreaded evenly by a time interval, and price interval.

let me roughly say i made 5 longs with stoploss around 128, takeprofit 138, at average 133 (at this level, we can even enter now, but it'll be available in the next few days, again, my own reading, no reason). that'll be 1:1 tp:sl.

this plan is completely improvised right now, and it is rough. it may be furnished if to trade it LIVE. but so far i feel it is enough for me. i might just turn on my EA setting "only long allowed". still this plan might fail, but my account cannot fail due to the plan.

put these kind of plans on monthly timeframe seems very promising to me.

i'll review this post after a few weeks.
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pemully Sep 11, 2013 2:39pm | Post# 18

From my experience most retail traders try to pick top and bottoms.Just look at myfxbook/oanda/dukas sentiment ratios.when positions are 3:1 biased long the markets invariably continues selling down and vice versa.
The trick is to avoid trading the majors and focus on the crosses and exotics.The major pairs are becoming efficient and don't trend well.
I think it was steviet who said he wins around 25% of the time but hes earning more than his salary.
Thats the trick,overcoming the need to be right and losing frequently but winning big.Exposing yourself to fat tails/blackswans while limiting your downside.Its so hard to do its almost impossible for 95% of traders.I have found conservative position sizing and refusing to look at your P/L on a frequent basis is key.focus on the trading only.automate as much as is possible.
This way you are trading opposite from the crowd who win about 60% of the time but lose twice their average gains,this was a study done on 12k fxcm accounts.
This strategy is extremely emotionally draining and thats why guys will always try to find high win% systems which is a trap in the long run as market changes impact high win strategies more than lower ones.You have to learn to live with volatility. A system with about 40% win rate will be in draw downs about 90% of the time.

Michael C. F Sep 12, 2013 3:18pm | Post# 19

you know that 95 % of newbie trader become fail in forex.some Reason of loss at forex :1.Lack of experience.2.dependency Over Signal. 3.Trading without purpose.4. trade with Large risk .5.Lack of Trading Strategy.so be carefull.happy trading

Kanzler Sep 12, 2013 5:26pm | Post# 20

From my experience most retail traders try to pick top and bottoms.Just look at myfxbook/oanda/dukas sentiment ratios.when positions are 3:1 biased long the markets invariably continues selling down and vice versa. The trick is to avoid trading the majors and focus on the crosses and exotics.The major pairs are becoming efficient and don't trend well. I think it was steviet who said he wins around 25% of the time but hes earning more than his salary. Thats the trick,overcoming the need to be right and losing frequently but winning big.Exposing yourself...
There's no difference in how the charts look now than how they did 50 years ago. Same psychology, same market behavior. Crosses/exotics are dangerous for a couple of reasons; first is higher spread, and second is that they're often strongly influenced by other larger markets.


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