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-   -   My EA is making 500 pips a day, is it a fluke? or am i missing something (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=413529)

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 4:52am | Post# 1

PLEASE IGNORE THREAD - I HAVE REALIZED MY MISTAKE, IT WAS SOMETHING I HAD OVERLOOKED DONT' WASTE YOUR TIME READING THIS THREAD.


before anyone asks, NO i am not selling anything, nor do i have any interest in it, i wont tell you about the EA name either. so don't ask and waste time .

I recently got an very old EA as i was testing it ( dont' ask its name) , i came across a few options, i changed them again and again and somehow, it started making 500 pips a day!
i lost about 1500 pips in first 2 days itself.

if you will be kind enough to let me know if this is a by chance setting that worked or something.

it trades on ALL the pairs at ONCE ( it has this setting within that EA)

if you would look at my trade explorer, you will see that it has 2 loss making days initially, then i changed the options as i was changing it randomly, for the last 4 days, it is making tons of pips. i am still at demo.

this has got me confused as i dont' really understand it now.
so i have 2 questions.

1 -am i missing something? that is , this ea is not as profitable as it looks, or as i a believe it is.
2 - any other comment you have.
3 - i am not giving you backtest result, its a real demo account that is trading as you see.


any other comment, EXCEPT - how do i do it, what is the ea i use, what is the strategy i use, or anything related to money.

threei Mar 4, 2013 5:03am | Post# 2

for the last 4 days, it is making tons of pips. i am still at demo.


1 -am i missing something?

sample size

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 5:08am | Post# 3

you maybe partially correct, it would have been 100% true if the win were 1 or 2 only, however 4 in a row is not a co-incidence, i will wait for a week more of 500pips daily, to consider it a viable EA. ( total 10 days)

like we both know, best way to test an EA is forward testing, lets see where it takes me..

5percent Mar 4, 2013 5:19am | Post# 4

My experience tells me, an ea with too many pairs trading at the same time, is far more disastrous than an ea that trades a single pair or two. Like u said, you were down 1500 pips -_-, that's a lot. Always check what risk and dd you can afford before you look at its gain. A EA with Dd like 40-70% is a gambling EA, and only waiting for the wrong market condition to that EA to fail completely. Where as, an EA with dd like 5-10%, is likely to survive and still comes out as a winner, if it can at least make some minor profits, after you fine tune it and edit the code etc or settings, or find suitable vps/broker, or change its sl, tp etc.

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 5:44am | Post# 5

i was down trading on all the pairs at once, i merely changed a few settings which changed it from 500 pip loss to 500 pip profit.

2- i am aware of the risks ,that is why i am trading microlots even at 100,000 capital ( its a demo, still)

3 - i am using stoploss on ALL the currency pairs this ea trades, so even if disaster strikes, i can stil have a theoratical loss of 2k pips or something ( very unlikely, coz money moves in forex from one pair to another unlike stocks where it exits the market)

maximum drawdown i have seen is approx 3-4 percent in it. ( before optimisation) after optimisation i have not seen drawdown.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 6:56am | Post# 6

sample size
Four days is nothing... if you can run it on a large amount if historical data you might see a very different picture.

Also not to appear cynical but if you aren't selling anything, why does your avatar read like an ad?

sirqaz Mar 4, 2013 7:00am | Post# 7

can you share the name of ea?

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:07am | Post# 8

Four days is nothing... if you can run it on a large amount if historical data you might see a very different picture.

Also not to appear cynical but if you aren't selling anything, why does your avatar read like an ad?

Testing it on historical data is nowhere like running a FORWARD test. it gives the actual result instead of a dream of money.

i did ran on a large amount of historical data ( 1 year, i still gave me profit)

my avatar is NOT an ad, its a reference to learn to trade forex, meaning - learn to trade forex yourself, ( by losing money once ) its supposed to be a type of inside joke. removed now btw, so that nobody gets the wrong idea.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 7:10am | Post# 9

i did ran on a large amount of historical data ( 2 years, i still gave me profit)

my avatar is NOT an ad, its a reference to learn to trade forex, meaning - learn to trade forex yourself, ( by losing money once ) its supposed to be a type of inside joke.
Joke... OK

Is this an EA you wrote yourself? Or one your bought?

Have you done any analyses on risk return? For example what account growth per day does 500 pips represent?

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:11am | Post# 10

can you share the name of ea?
Read first post again.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 7:16am | Post# 11

Testing it on historical data is nowhere like running a FORWARD test. it gives the actual result instead of a dream of money.

I agree running forward is of more value, but in the end, it's all really a similar thing, because past performance is of course no guarantee of future results...

I think it would interesting if you plotted all your data on a graph to see the shape of the equity curve..

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:24am | Post# 12

Joke... OK

Is this an EA you wrote yourself? Or one your bought?

Have you done any analyses on risk return? For example what account growth per day does 500 pips represent?

Please read the heading of the first post.

it says i don't know if its a fluke or i am missing something.

i did plot on a graphical curve, ( as you can see from the trade explorer itself) at first it lost money ( 500 pips a day) and then i change some options and it gave me 500 pips a day)

2 - i could not sleep last night thinking about the same thing ( 500 pips a day!!!)

but then, forex has more than once lead me into believing that i got the holy grail, and i am somehow more intelligent than 7 billion people combined, that is why i asked here.

sirqaz Mar 4, 2013 7:27am | Post# 13

is this a big problem for you to just tell us the name of ea? why you dont want to tell that? i dont get you

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 7:29am | Post# 14

Please read the heading of the first post.

it says i don't know if its a fluke or i am missing something.

i did plot on a graphical curve, ( as you can see from the trade explorer itself) at first it lost money ( 500 pips a day) and then i change some options and it gave me 500 pips a day)

2 - i could not sleep last night thinking about the same thing ( 500 pips a day!!!)

but then, forex has more than once lead me into believing that i got the holy grail, and i am somehow more intelligent than 7 billion people combined, that is...
Yeah I know what your question is, and I am trying to give you some ideas to test your discovery.... I still say 4 days is nothing.. plot all of your back test data and see how it looks, also measuring a system by pips is of limited value, what is of value is the average return compared to the risk in money terms... You might want to take a look at some probability theory, EV, standard deviation, Kelly criterion etc....

realjumper Mar 4, 2013 7:32am | Post# 15

is this a big problem for you to just tell us the name of ea? why you dont want to tell that? i dont get you
I agree.....how is anyone supposed to deduce "if its a fluke or i am missing something", if we have zero data to draw a conclusion from?

The thread is a waste of space imo

ToeCutter Mar 4, 2013 7:34am | Post# 16

Oh spare me, please... I'm sure if you offered the code here, that there would be many here who could give you a much better insight into the program and it's working than what you seem to have about it. Unless you do, this whole discussion is mere speculation and guesswork.

But you have zero intention of showing the code.

PayTheLimit Mar 4, 2013 7:44am | Post# 17

the only good thing is this thread was 2 pages long, and I only wasted 60-90 seconds of my life...

flofri Mar 4, 2013 7:47am | Post# 18

Read first post again.
I wish I had not. You suck, literaly. You beg for things you can find out yourself, to enrichen yourself, without sharing. Now how does this serve anyone but you?

Playing the non-disclosure-interesting-finding the holy grail hotshot; "oh deary, what could be the case here, look what comes creeping out of my closet"


Blow your own account in silence, without bothering this forum.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 7:49am | Post# 19

the only good thing is this thread was 2 pages long, and I only wasted 60-90 seconds of my life...
LOL )

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:52am | Post# 20

this is WOW.. if i don't share my code or my strategy everything automatically starts to bash me!

all i asked was - dont ask which ea i use or what options or something.

just tell me if i am overlooking something, that would tell me that this ea is not as profitable as i think or something.

i have put trade explorer on the first page, that is all the data i can give you. because that is all the data i have.



RELAX. i am not being a hard a$$ about it.

realjumper Mar 4, 2013 7:54am | Post# 21

this is WOW.. if i don't share my code or my strategy everything automatically starts to bash me!

all i asked was - dont ask which ea i use or what options or something.

just tell me if i am overlooking something, that would tell me that this ea is not as profitable as i think or something.

i have put trade explorer on the first page, that is all the data i can give you. because that is all the data i have.



RELAX. i am not being a hard a$$ about it.

LOL....and how are we supposed to tell if you've overlooked anything, when we cannot look at anything?

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:56am | Post# 22

LOL....and how are we supposed to tell if you've overlooked anything, when we cannot look at anything?

entire trade explorer is in front of you, each trade EA took, lot size, profit, loss, everything what else can one need to make a judgement?

realjumper Mar 4, 2013 7:59am | Post# 23

entire trade explorer is in front of you, each trade EA took, lot size, profit, loss, everything what else can one need to make a judgement?
The TM is showing the results......it's anyones guess how those results were arrived at, seeing as you won't reveal anything at all about it.

pipcorn Mar 4, 2013 8:02am | Post# 24

My EA make 501 pips a day.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 8:09am | Post# 25

My EA make 501 pips a day.
he he))

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 8:09am | Post# 26

The TM is showing the results......it's anyones guess how those results were arrived at, seeing as you won't reveal anything at all about it.

its opening and closing the trades right in front of you, its FORWARD testing, not backtesting. not results of last year or something.

so whatever the result is, nobody can predict, and if someone can, he is going to be a Trillionaire.! with a capital T.

realjumper Mar 4, 2013 8:11am | Post# 27

its opening and closing the trades right in front of you, its FORWARD testing, not backtesting. not results of last year or something.

so whatever the result is, nobody can predict, and if someone can, he is going to be a Trillionaire.! with a capital T.
"Is it a fluke, or am I missing something?"..........how the hell can anyone answer that by looking at a bunch of results?

shiva Mar 4, 2013 8:28am | Post# 28

Hey, my car won't start; can you tell me what is the problem? Of course I can't offer any clues on the make or model of the car, I won't tell you anything about the engine capacity either. Just rake your brains, spend a lot of time on this and feel honored that I am letting you help me

mr.kho Mar 4, 2013 8:29am | Post# 29

before anyone asks, NO i am not selling anything, nor do i have any interest in it, i wont tell you about the EA name either. so don't ask and waste time .

I recently got an very old EA as i was testing it ( dont' ask its name) , i came across a few options, i changed them again and again and somehow, it started making 500 pips a day!
i lost about 1500 pips in first 2 days itself.

if you will be kind enough to let me know if this is a by chance setting that worked or something.

it trades on ALL the pairs at ONCE ( it has this setting within that...
be careful !!!
many people go bankrupt,, because.,,the victory at the beginning in bulk ,,(either demo or real )


salaam

realjumper Mar 4, 2013 8:44am | Post# 30

Little Miss Muppet: I baked a new cake today, it's delicious, but I want to know if it's a fluke or am I missing something?

Guy in the shop: Oh ok, let me have a taste and I'll try and help you.

Little Miss Muppet: Oh no, you can't taste it

Guy in the shop: Oh.....well......let me see the recipe then.

Little Miss Muppet: Oh no, you can't see the recipe.

Guy in the shop: Really?......Well at least tell me what the ingredients are.

Little Miss Muppet: No way!

Guy in the shop: Well how the hell can I help you find out if it's a fluke or if you're missing something???

Little Miss Muppet: Because I'm showing you the cake.....you know, the results.....duh!

Guy in the shop: Uh huh....I'm going to the pub!

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 8:46am | Post# 31

Hey, my car won't start; can you tell me what is the problem? Of course I can't offer any clues on the make or model of the car, I won't tell you anything about the engine capacity either. Just rake your brains, spend a lot of time on this and feel honored that I am letting you help me

why is everyone so stressed about the EA i use? if i dont tell you the name of the EA, nobody will tell me anything, correct?

2 - will it help if i post my username/investor password here?

what difference will it make from trade explorer? you will get the same data in both places, more data in trade explorer.

Parox Mar 4, 2013 9:00am | Post# 32

I also tried tons of EAs on demo accounts. To be frank Some EAs were more than 90% profitable on Demo. But when I go with real money then the different thing. Why don't you start a small live account to test this EA ? Hopefully you will get the answers. Don't trade all pairs using EA. Stick to 04 - 05 pairs.

taomql4 Mar 4, 2013 9:01am | Post# 33

before anyone asks, NO i am not selling anything, nor do i have any interest in it, i wont tell you about the EA name either. so don't ask and waste time .

I recently got an very old EA as i was testing it ( dont' ask its name) , i came across a few options, i changed them again and again and somehow, it started making 500 pips a day!
i lost about 1500 pips in first 2 days itself.

if you will be kind enough to let me know if this is a by chance setting that worked or something.

it trades on ALL the pairs at ONCE ( it has this setting within...
Oh Okay - Sounds fair enough ..
Your thread in a Nut Shell ...

Inserted Video


Good times ..

Eur Usd Mar 4, 2013 10:17am | Post# 34

I can open so small positions (and so many of them) that it will give me 10.000 pips a day (or even more) and with same money I can do only 20 pips but the profit in cash will be the same, that's why what counts more for me is daily profit in %, not pips.

Supertrader9 Mar 4, 2013 10:55am | Post# 35

1 Attachment(s)
why is everyone so stressed about the EA i use? if i dont tell you the name of the EA, nobody will tell me anything, correct?

2 - will it help if i post my username/investor password here?

what difference will it make from trade explorer? you will get the same data in both places, more data in trade explorer.
Use the same settings. Backtest from 2008 to current. If it is profitable then your ea stand the test of time and it just might be your lucky day. If it doesn't then don't bother. I also have my ea. I have backtest results as well as forward test. I also have a thread here in the trading journal section.

Forward test link is at signature. If you run your ea for a year and it is still profitable then probably you have found 'your' version of trading holy grail.

Here is the backtest
xy.rar

jeuro Mar 4, 2013 11:56am | Post# 36

Hi Competent123.

The point is that it is impossible for anyone to give you any opinion that is worth anything.
Impossible because no one knows the logic of the EA. Most likely not even you.
Also it is impossible, or extremely time consuming to try to reverse engineering a logic from a list of open trades
ufff, the option are infinite.

To me looks like a simple basket of some sort, that is just lucky in these few days with the parameters
you found.

Any Basket style system are in general just spreads eater system. And as soon the market behave different
then the present setting would be worthless.

No one can tell you more then generic thing like I am mentioning. If you figure the logic of your present setting
and "you" think they are good, go for it.

J.

manilaguy Mar 4, 2013 12:19pm | Post# 37

Sorry for the noob question, but what is a EA?

pipcorn Mar 4, 2013 1:25pm | Post# 38

Sorry for the noob question, but what is a EA?
EA = Expert Advisor. (a piece of code)
An EA can just advise traders which trades to make.
Or can be programmed to automatically execute the trades.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 2:19pm | Post# 39

Hi Competent123.

The point is that it is impossible for anyone to give you any opinion that is worth anything.
Impossible because no one knows the logic of the EA. Most likely not even you.
Also it is impossible, or extremely time consuming to try to reverse engineering a logic from a list of open trades
ufff, the option are infinite.

To me looks like a simple basket of some sort, that is just lucky in these few days with the parameters
you found.

Any Basket style system are in general just spreads eater system. And as soon the market...
My sentiments exactly... the OP claims to have run this on two years of back data... I must say I am skeptical.. There seems to no understanding of the expected return or the risk of ruin probability on behalf on of the OP.. Feels like he is gambling to me, but hey, like you say if he's happy with his 4 days of results, bung in some real money and let it roll!

manilaguy Mar 4, 2013 2:38pm | Post# 40

EA = Expert Advisor. (a piece of code)
An EA can just advise traders which trades to make.
Or can be programmed to automatically execute the trades.
Ah okay, thanks for that. Might have to get myself one of those, not that I would know how to use it haha.

I am plodding along on a demo account, in 2 weeks have turned 10 grand into 18 grand and I know that is probably not much going by some of the regulars here but I find it fairly easy to make money.

Like everyone says though, come back when your using real money. I will do it, just not yet though, need to prove I can make play money first lol.


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