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-   -   My EA is making 500 pips a day, is it a fluke? or am i missing something (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=413529)

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 4:52am | Post# 1

PLEASE IGNORE THREAD - I HAVE REALIZED MY MISTAKE, IT WAS SOMETHING I HAD OVERLOOKED DONT' WASTE YOUR TIME READING THIS THREAD.


before anyone asks, NO i am not selling anything, nor do i have any interest in it, i wont tell you about the EA name either. so don't ask and waste time .

I recently got an very old EA as i was testing it ( dont' ask its name) , i came across a few options, i changed them again and again and somehow, it started making 500 pips a day!
i lost about 1500 pips in first 2 days itself.

if you will be kind enough to let me know if this is a by chance setting that worked or something.

it trades on ALL the pairs at ONCE ( it has this setting within that EA)

if you would look at my trade explorer, you will see that it has 2 loss making days initially, then i changed the options as i was changing it randomly, for the last 4 days, it is making tons of pips. i am still at demo.

this has got me confused as i dont' really understand it now.
so i have 2 questions.

1 -am i missing something? that is , this ea is not as profitable as it looks, or as i a believe it is.
2 - any other comment you have.
3 - i am not giving you backtest result, its a real demo account that is trading as you see.


any other comment, EXCEPT - how do i do it, what is the ea i use, what is the strategy i use, or anything related to money.

threei Mar 4, 2013 5:03am | Post# 2

for the last 4 days, it is making tons of pips. i am still at demo.


1 -am i missing something?

sample size

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 5:08am | Post# 3

you maybe partially correct, it would have been 100% true if the win were 1 or 2 only, however 4 in a row is not a co-incidence, i will wait for a week more of 500pips daily, to consider it a viable EA. ( total 10 days)

like we both know, best way to test an EA is forward testing, lets see where it takes me..

5percent Mar 4, 2013 5:19am | Post# 4

My experience tells me, an ea with too many pairs trading at the same time, is far more disastrous than an ea that trades a single pair or two. Like u said, you were down 1500 pips -_-, that's a lot. Always check what risk and dd you can afford before you look at its gain. A EA with Dd like 40-70% is a gambling EA, and only waiting for the wrong market condition to that EA to fail completely. Where as, an EA with dd like 5-10%, is likely to survive and still comes out as a winner, if it can at least make some minor profits, after you fine tune it and edit the code etc or settings, or find suitable vps/broker, or change its sl, tp etc.

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 5:44am | Post# 5

i was down trading on all the pairs at once, i merely changed a few settings which changed it from 500 pip loss to 500 pip profit.

2- i am aware of the risks ,that is why i am trading microlots even at 100,000 capital ( its a demo, still)

3 - i am using stoploss on ALL the currency pairs this ea trades, so even if disaster strikes, i can stil have a theoratical loss of 2k pips or something ( very unlikely, coz money moves in forex from one pair to another unlike stocks where it exits the market)

maximum drawdown i have seen is approx 3-4 percent in it. ( before optimisation) after optimisation i have not seen drawdown.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 6:56am | Post# 6

sample size
Four days is nothing... if you can run it on a large amount if historical data you might see a very different picture.

Also not to appear cynical but if you aren't selling anything, why does your avatar read like an ad?

sirqaz Mar 4, 2013 7:00am | Post# 7

can you share the name of ea?

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:07am | Post# 8

Four days is nothing... if you can run it on a large amount if historical data you might see a very different picture.

Also not to appear cynical but if you aren't selling anything, why does your avatar read like an ad?

Testing it on historical data is nowhere like running a FORWARD test. it gives the actual result instead of a dream of money.

i did ran on a large amount of historical data ( 1 year, i still gave me profit)

my avatar is NOT an ad, its a reference to learn to trade forex, meaning - learn to trade forex yourself, ( by losing money once ) its supposed to be a type of inside joke. removed now btw, so that nobody gets the wrong idea.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 7:10am | Post# 9

i did ran on a large amount of historical data ( 2 years, i still gave me profit)

my avatar is NOT an ad, its a reference to learn to trade forex, meaning - learn to trade forex yourself, ( by losing money once ) its supposed to be a type of inside joke.
Joke... OK

Is this an EA you wrote yourself? Or one your bought?

Have you done any analyses on risk return? For example what account growth per day does 500 pips represent?

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:11am | Post# 10

can you share the name of ea?
Read first post again.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 7:16am | Post# 11

Testing it on historical data is nowhere like running a FORWARD test. it gives the actual result instead of a dream of money.

I agree running forward is of more value, but in the end, it's all really a similar thing, because past performance is of course no guarantee of future results...

I think it would interesting if you plotted all your data on a graph to see the shape of the equity curve..

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:24am | Post# 12

Joke... OK

Is this an EA you wrote yourself? Or one your bought?

Have you done any analyses on risk return? For example what account growth per day does 500 pips represent?

Please read the heading of the first post.

it says i don't know if its a fluke or i am missing something.

i did plot on a graphical curve, ( as you can see from the trade explorer itself) at first it lost money ( 500 pips a day) and then i change some options and it gave me 500 pips a day)

2 - i could not sleep last night thinking about the same thing ( 500 pips a day!!!)

but then, forex has more than once lead me into believing that i got the holy grail, and i am somehow more intelligent than 7 billion people combined, that is why i asked here.

sirqaz Mar 4, 2013 7:27am | Post# 13

is this a big problem for you to just tell us the name of ea? why you dont want to tell that? i dont get you

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 7:29am | Post# 14

Please read the heading of the first post.

it says i don't know if its a fluke or i am missing something.

i did plot on a graphical curve, ( as you can see from the trade explorer itself) at first it lost money ( 500 pips a day) and then i change some options and it gave me 500 pips a day)

2 - i could not sleep last night thinking about the same thing ( 500 pips a day!!!)

but then, forex has more than once lead me into believing that i got the holy grail, and i am somehow more intelligent than 7 billion people combined, that is...
Yeah I know what your question is, and I am trying to give you some ideas to test your discovery.... I still say 4 days is nothing.. plot all of your back test data and see how it looks, also measuring a system by pips is of limited value, what is of value is the average return compared to the risk in money terms... You might want to take a look at some probability theory, EV, standard deviation, Kelly criterion etc....

realjumper Mar 4, 2013 7:32am | Post# 15

is this a big problem for you to just tell us the name of ea? why you dont want to tell that? i dont get you
I agree.....how is anyone supposed to deduce "if its a fluke or i am missing something", if we have zero data to draw a conclusion from?

The thread is a waste of space imo

ToeCutter Mar 4, 2013 7:34am | Post# 16

Oh spare me, please... I'm sure if you offered the code here, that there would be many here who could give you a much better insight into the program and it's working than what you seem to have about it. Unless you do, this whole discussion is mere speculation and guesswork.

But you have zero intention of showing the code.

PayTheLimit Mar 4, 2013 7:44am | Post# 17

the only good thing is this thread was 2 pages long, and I only wasted 60-90 seconds of my life...

flofri Mar 4, 2013 7:47am | Post# 18

Read first post again.
I wish I had not. You suck, literaly. You beg for things you can find out yourself, to enrichen yourself, without sharing. Now how does this serve anyone but you?

Playing the non-disclosure-interesting-finding the holy grail hotshot; "oh deary, what could be the case here, look what comes creeping out of my closet"


Blow your own account in silence, without bothering this forum.

MoralAtheist Mar 4, 2013 7:49am | Post# 19

the only good thing is this thread was 2 pages long, and I only wasted 60-90 seconds of my life...
LOL )

competent123 Mar 4, 2013 7:52am | Post# 20

this is WOW.. if i don't share my code or my strategy everything automatically starts to bash me!

all i asked was - dont ask which ea i use or what options or something.

just tell me if i am overlooking something, that would tell me that this ea is not as profitable as i think or something.

i have put trade explorer on the first page, that is all the data i can give you. because that is all the data i have.



RELAX. i am not being a hard a$$ about it.


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