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-   -   Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY) (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=407274)

drzakir123 Dec 2, 2013 3:33pm | Post# 9801


{quote} GU drops to earth, I get it.. but how can you say GJ drops? I think not possible..GU can drag GJ a bit lower but eventually will move to 175..
of course price should go to 175,no doubt about it.

Solomon1a Dec 2, 2013 3:46pm | Post# 9802

{quote} this s my screen now i need help urgent plzzzzzzz {image}
you are actually in 0.50 lot in sell. you can add 0.50 one more lot for long. and take the long till 170.78. and then take the profit of 0.50 long. and leave the 0.50 long with 1.00 sell. its expected that price will go down and retace its level near 168-166 where you can close your sell. but in case if price dont want retrace then you can add 0.50 long again at 171.10 which will push the price more higher at 175 levels which will be your 2nd decision point. if price gets retrace then close your last long at 171ish level. and repeat the vise verca.

clemmy15 Dec 2, 2013 10:27pm | Post# 9803

{quote} you are actually in 0.50 lot in sell. you can add 0.50 one more lot for long. and take the long till 170.78. and then take the profit of 0.50 long. and leave the 0.50 long with 1.00 sell. its expected that price will go down and retace its level near 168-166 where you can close your sell. but in case if price dont want retrace then you can add 0.50 long again at 171.10 which will push the price more higher at 175 levels which will be your 2nd decision point. if price gets retrace then close your last long at 171ish level. and repeat the...
yeah. a loss is a loss. you should just closing your losing position and start buying dips on the uptrend. there's still lots of upside to recover your losses. Ensure enough margin for retracements.

veer2010 Dec 2, 2013 10:57pm | Post# 9804

GJ rocking higher..possible 170 today...

acidguy Dec 3, 2013 1:08am | Post# 9805

GJ rocking higher..possible 170 today...
lol seriously?... with the USA Stock Indexes about to fall do u think this bb will keep going up like crazy?

veer2010 Dec 3, 2013 1:32am | Post# 9806

{quote} lol seriously?... with the USA Stock Indexes about to fall do u think this bb will keep going up like crazy?
If there is one thing which can stop this move is "IF" Nikkie crashes. otherwise..get ready to see 180 by end of december or early jan...

Mpt Dec 3, 2013 2:38am | Post# 9807

{quote} If there is one thing which can stop this move is "IF" Nikkie crashes. otherwise..get ready to see 180 by end of december or early jan...
Or the notion that UJ is not really overly bullish yet but is still in a large correction. And that GU may only have one more move up...

veer2010 Dec 3, 2013 3:08am | Post# 9808

{quote} Or the notion that UJ is not really overly bullish yet but is still in a large correction. And that GU may only have one more move up...
The correlation is insignificant at this time as both pound and dollar are having a bull fight as both want to push one another lower.. but in case of pound and yen, we have only a bull which is kicking a chicken's ass.. so you will have this pair trade higher and doesn't matter where this GU trades..they can be very well at 1.65 level when GJ may trade at 180.. everything is possible..

Mpt Dec 3, 2013 4:41am | Post# 9809

{quote} The correlation is insignificant at this time as both pound and dollar are having a bull fight as both want to push one another lower.. but in case of pound and yen, we have only a bull which is kicking a chicken's ass.. so you will have this pair trade higher and doesn't matter where this GU trades..they can be very well at 1.65 level when GJ may trade at 180.. everything is possible..
When this pair departed 159, it had two primary goals, both of which it met in the last 50 pips. It's now starting to live on borrowed time.

When it departed 125 it had a goal that was met. At each and every stage of the climb, it met its target to the pip, with only one exception, wherein it exceeded it by 150 pips -then became unstable and dropped. On this occasion, it sits ten pips above its last target. And it is unstable. It may yet run higher, but time will tell.

Maybe you'll get your 18x, but that just means that it's changed the rules it began to lay down in 2011

veer2010 Dec 3, 2013 4:45am | Post# 9810

{quote} When this pair departed 159, it had two primary goals, both of which it met in the last 50 pips. It's now starting to live on borrowed time. When it departed 125 it had a goal that was met. At each and every stage of the climb, it met its target to the pip, with only one exception, wherein it exceeded it by 150 pips -then became unstable and dropped. On this occasion, it sits ten pips above its last target. And it is unstable. It may yet run higher, but time will tell. My only regret is that I didn't know this a year ago.
so, according to you it's gonna drop when there is no fundamental backing?

Mpt Dec 3, 2013 4:55am | Post# 9811

{quote} so, according to you it's gonna drop when there is no fundamental backing?
All I can say with any conviction is that I wish I had know even 6 months ago what I know now. And it f-ing shits me.

veer2010 Dec 3, 2013 4:58am | Post# 9812

{quote} All I can say with any conviction is that I wish I had know even 6 months ago what I know now. And it f-ing shits me.
you're confusing me..what is that you know? the price levels? if I know that I would have been a millionaire by now :-)

Mpt Dec 3, 2013 5:08am | Post# 9813

{quote} you're confusing me..what is that you know? the price levels? if I know that I would have been a millionaire by now :-)
EXACTLY. This thing set up a number of continuation patterns with preset price targets when it bottomed at 116x. After that, the process continued. And continued. And continued.

If any of us knew we would be sitting pretty. I know it sounds some sort of inane conspiracy theory, but that's exactly what happened.

The targets and their success can be seen clearly by length of moves, and sometimes fibonacci relationships are tied in. There was one single error, in the break up to 156.75 it exceeded target by some 150 pips - then it fell.

Lets see where it goes.

There are possible third and fourth upside targets which may well be met. 170 is one of them, then another above there

veer2010 Dec 3, 2013 6:52am | Post# 9814

{quote} EXACTLY. This thing set up a number of continuation patterns with preset price targets when it bottomed at 116x. After that, the process continued. And continued. And continued. If any of us knew we would be sitting pretty. I know it sounds some sort of inane conspiracy theory, but that's exactly what happened. The targets and their success can be seen clearly by length of moves, and sometimes fibonacci relationships are tied in. There was one single error, in the break up to 156.75 it exceeded target by some 150 pips - then it fell. Lets...
yes my target is 170 and i will see how Nikkie fares tomorrow... if the sell off continues, I will close my longs for whatever the profit I have. As I said earlier Nikkie sell off is the only factor that can bring this pair down.. if that happens tomorrow then my bias will shift on the shorter side and will create a short position. I suspect big money is taking profit before xmas as no one wants to keep position open when they go for holidays :-)

ez0770 Dec 3, 2013 7:56am | Post# 9815

{quote} yes my target is 170 and i will see how Nikkie fares tomorrow... if the sell off continues, I will close my longs for whatever the profit I have. As I said earlier Nikkie sell off is the only factor that can bring this pair down.. if that happens tomorrow then my bias will shift on the shorter side and will create a short position. I suspect big money is taking profit before xmas as no one wants to keep position open when they go for holidays :-)
Different things could bring this cross down, but given that at the moment fundamentals are supporting the bull run, I would say that it's all about positioning as you said: we have many players who are currently long obviously; some are in it for the long run and are happy to withstand short term volatility, others are looking to take partial profit at the first sign of weakness, others are looking to get out altogether to possibly reload longs at a lower level, so once the first sign of profit taking will be evident on the chart, the usual chain reaction will start and more profit taking will take place to generate a decent pullback. And after some 1000 points + up even a modest pullback should see this at least 300 points from current levels.

It's proving hard to call a short term top, but eventually it has to happen. It does not negate the strong uptrend, it's just the way the market naturally flows. In my opinion a close below 168 could lead us back to the 166-165 area....

forexer11 Dec 3, 2013 10:04am | Post# 9816

helo every1
expert opinion needed now gj start going up again....
plz help

veer2010 Dec 3, 2013 10:06am | Post# 9817

helo every1 expert opinion needed now gj start going up again.... plz help
Need to see how Nikkie goes as well.. If Nikkie sell off continues then GJ may fall back a bit.. I am still holding onto my long but will decide tomorrow as if Nikkie sells off, i will close my long tmr..
If nikkie is back up, then I will continue holding onto my long..

ninner Dec 3, 2013 11:42am | Post# 9818

helo every1 expert opinion needed now gj start going up again.... plz help
im hardly an expert but i will give you an opinion...wait to see what it does as it gets down to 167.75 to 167.70 may be heading there first

Mpt Dec 3, 2013 10:58pm | Post# 9819

It it gets to and holds much over about 168.3/4/5, it's probably going up again, target around 169.8/170

Otherwise, if it gives up, it will confirm it's correcting, first to about 166.4 where it should bounce, but fail around double top.

ez0770 Dec 3, 2013 11:30pm | Post# 9820

It it gets to and holds much over about 168.3/4/5, it's probably going up again, target around 169.8/170 Otherwise, if it gives up, it will confirm it's correcting, first to about 166.4 where it should bounce, but fail around double top.
At the moment I suspect that the order book is more skewed towards sellers around 169 and possibly stops below 167, so if we break through the lower figure I think we could see a quick acceleration to the 166 level. We probably need a new catalyst to resume the uptrend in a strong fashion and break above 169 targeting 170, which we might get as event risk is quite high for the rest of the week. First piece of data to keep an eye on is Uk services PMI today and see how cable reacts to that if figures come out strong as expected. Cable has been well bid yesterday on the back of more +ve data and that has limited the retracement on g/j, but even cable has had an incredible run in the last few weeks and it will "need" to correct at some stage and the fact that yesterday we did not break to new highs on +ve data is telling something in my opinion


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