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-   -   Jerry's new session break-out strategy (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=402895)

Mtinifx Jan 1, 2013 5:01pm | Post# 1

Jerry's new session break-out strategy
 
Hi everyone

Well as you know I like coming up with new and innovative trading strategies.

I'll admit this by no means a new one!

However it is most definitely a new take on trading the new session (European/NY) breakout .

There is no doubt that some big moves occur at these times on many trading days (more often then not!) and "catching" the breakout can very quickly result in 10 or 20 pips a day.


I think my idea is sound having back -tested it over the last 6 months (15 min charts!!) and traded it successfully.

Mtinifx Jan 1, 2013 5:06pm | Post# 2

Guys before we get going, it seems that these forums have become infested with some nasty, unsavoury characters stalking the threads and posting really negative comments.


I must straight away warn any of these people that they will be banned immediately from posting here and reported to the administrator.


On the other hand I really welcome people who like this idea and have something to contribute or even trade the strategy with me.


I will post a trade explorer where you will be able to see where/when I traded and quickly learn the strategy - hopefully for at least 10 -20 pips a day!

Rgds

Jerry

Mtinifx Jan 1, 2013 5:17pm | Post# 3

1 Attachment(s)
OK one more post today with more tomorrow with eg's

Guys, the idea is to apply pending trades above and below price action in the morning (at start of session) and afternoon start of session. The time's that I use and the gap are CRITICAL. We use a pending trade with SL

The goal is 10 pip (minimum) reward against a 10 pip SL - Aiming for AT LEAST 3 to 1 win ratio


A simple diagram gives you the plan (assuming the trend turns up) A is our start candle, B shows what often occurs (swing low) and a lot of traders will take a sell trade between A and B. The price action turns upwards eventually reaching "C" where our pending order is placed and we TP at "D" or set a trailing if PA is very bullish.


Sorry the yellow lines show where our pending orders would be placed
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Mtinifx Jan 2, 2013 7:30am | Post# 4

Hi everyone

Well 2 more wins today on EU and GU


This is ridiculously easy!!

whatfx Jan 3, 2013 1:36pm | Post# 5

OK one more post today with more tomorrow with eg's

Guys, the idea is to apply pending trades above and below price action in the morning (at start of session) and afternoon start of session. The time's that I use and the gap are CRITICAL. We use a pending trade with SL

The goal is 10 pip (minimum) reward against a 10 pip SL - Aiming for AT LEAST 3 to 1 win ratio


A simple diagram gives you the plan (assuming the trend turns up) A is our start candle, B shows what often occurs (swing low) and a lot of traders will take a sell trade between...

you really havent described the method yet....

joefoos55 Jan 3, 2013 1:44pm | Post# 6

I take it you are European, so your morning is London open and your afternoon is New York open.

Erebus Jan 3, 2013 2:49pm | Post# 7

1 Attachment(s)
you really havent described the method yet....
The drawing is quite clear, pure price action, try applying it to a chart:

1, Trend is UP

2, Retracement

3, Continuation of trend

4, Entry at Breakout (C)

5, Take profit at target (D)

6, Repeat using (D) as the new (A) - in this case the new (B) was broken to downside
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Mtinifx Jan 3, 2013 6:55pm | Post# 8

Hi everyone

Just to say thank you to the guys who posted above who are genuinely interested in the trading new session breakout.


Erebus, Thanks for the chart - really nice.

You are on the right track there - I am going to post the EXACT PARAMETERS over this weekend (sorry been so busy with other things this week)


BTW, 2 wins today on EU and one on GU

Mtinifx Jan 3, 2013 6:59pm | Post# 9

I take it you are European, so your morning is London open and your afternoon is New York open.


Hi joefoos55


You are quite right. This is a strategy concerning the 2 sessions.

It's so easy and you'll be amazed how easy to win 12/13 out of 15 set ups per week.



Of course we have the skeptics like forexhard and other "know all - know b.......all" people who will try to punch holes in anyones good idea - DO NOT LISTEN TO LOSERS!!

Mtinifx Jan 3, 2013 7:01pm | Post# 10

you really havent described the method yet....


Sorry, will post full parameters this weekend.

Rgds

Mtinifx Jan 4, 2013 5:32am | Post# 11

Hi everyone

Just an update

GU - Reached target

EU - Not yet triggered

billbss Jan 4, 2013 9:39am | Post# 12

Great.

Anxious to see how you do it.

Mtinifx Jan 5, 2013 7:56am | Post# 13

Great.

Anxious to see how you do it.

Hi billbss

And you certainly shall. I am PM'ing you the parameters as well as any other genuinely interested people.

I am not going to post the parameters publicly. Any one who really is interested in this strategy is very welcome to PM me for the set-up!

I'm afraid that there are too many morons on these forums who are too full of themselves who will NOT be getting this valuable info. I don't throw my "pearls before sw......."

Mtinifx Jan 5, 2013 8:07am | Post# 14

1 Attachment(s)
Guys

UPDATE FROM YESTERDAY

GU - 10 pips
EU - 10 pip loss then 20 pip gain when buy pending was triggered!

EJ - will be trading this next week after full backtested - very positive results.

Should really have deleted the sell when it had not been triggered by 11.00am - This is supposed to be a morning break-out strategy and there was no break-out so my own fault for the loss!


The reason why this is a nice strategy is because it's mechanical. We have our set-up parameters and we stick to them. Nice for traders who have a problem with doubt, anxiety, fear, etc., - these are the small trader's worse enemies!

I am posting my chart which shows the Asian high/lows and pivot levels. VERY OCCASIONALLY we might adjust our pending levels by a pip to accommodate these levels - I'll explain later.


Rgds

Jerry
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dfwfire Jan 5, 2013 8:38am | Post# 15

Jerry,
You have my interest. Looking forward to seeing how this works out.


Subscribed.

Mtinifx Jan 5, 2013 9:11am | Post# 16

1 Attachment(s)
Hi everyone

As I mentioned, very occasionally you may have to adjust your pending buy/sell trade to accommodate a major support/resistance level. Price action often tests these levels and sometimes breaks through by a pip or two before shooting back in the opposite direction. I have posted an EU chart from 13th December just as an example. If (although it would not have affected our set - up on that day!) our pending had been just below the BRN level, it would be prudent to set a few pips above strong resistance/support level knowing how PA tests these levels.



Sorry forgot to mention in my PM to those that I've sent the parameters that in the morning/afternoon, if our pendings have not been triggered by 10.00am / 3.00pm (GMT) delete them as price action is more then likely choppy!
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dfwfire Jan 5, 2013 11:51am | Post# 17

Thank you for the strategy Jerry. I went ahead and looked back this year at the trades. I am going to share what I have found in a very brief back-test. If this is a problem let me know and I will edit the post.

I followed your rules ( I believe, although honestly I didn't look at the S/R levels for the day) and I did the +10 pip target instead of letting it ride. Had I let it ride, the gains would have been much more substantial.

EUR/USD Since Jan 2/13
3 Trades Triggered: +10, +10, -10 (funny after closing the opposing order @ 1300, the signal was triggered on the next bar iirc for +10)

GBP/USD Since Jan2/13
3 Trades Triggered: +10, +10, -10

EUR/JPY Since Jan 2/13
3 Trades Triggered: +10, -10, +10

Letting them run the results could've been (and just glancing to rough levels, not max profit you could've had)
EUR: +25, +10, -10
GBP: +20, +40, -10
EUR/JPY: +40, -10, +15-20

Honestly I think this is a good system and I am going to definitely forward test and keep an eye on it.


My personal preference would be to trade this system like this: (without trying to greatly change Jerry's system or derail the thread)
1- Use a good broker with a small pip spread (minimize adjusting SL for spread)
2- Trade Multiple Lots (or split trade into 2 equal sized chunks)
3- Using Jerry's SL/Take Profit Rules, I would enter the trade according to the exact rules, exit 1/2 position @ +10, and see if I could let the other 1/2 ride out

Just a thought.

Gumrai Jan 6, 2013 2:57am | Post# 18

I've been looking at break-outs from small areas of congestion lately with ignoring whatever trend is percieved.

The Asian break-out is a very well known and not always succesful method.

Session break-out is a bit different and does make sense.
I look forward to reading what you have to say.

Mtinifx Jan 6, 2013 4:10am | Post# 19

1 Attachment(s)
Thank you for the strategy Jerry. I went ahead and looked back this year at the trades. I am going to share what I have found in a very brief back-test. If this is a problem let me know and I will edit the post.

I followed your rules ( I believe, although honestly I didn't look at the S/R levels for the day) and I did the +10 pip target instead of letting it ride. Had I let it ride, the gains would have been much more substantial.

EUR/USD Since Jan 2/13
3 Trades Triggered: +10, +10, -10 (funny after closing the opposing order @ 1300, the...

Hi dfwfire

You are quite welcome to trade the strategy anyway you wish.

Strange because I was going to send another PM to the many interested people who replied with more or less exactly the same ideas as you've mentioned above! Firstly with this kind of strategy, it really is important to use a broker with a low spread as sometimes one or two pips can make the difference between a losing or winning trade. I use IC market, but Armada or anyone with half a pip or 1 pip spread is good.
I think the weakness with the strategy is as you quite rightly point out is that many times in the week one can get a lot more then 10 pips on the breakout! Last Thursday for instance, we had a 2-way breakout in the morning (see chart attached). The buy yielded only 10 pip (our target) but the sell trade would have yielded 30 pips easily! You idea of closing half the trade and letting the other half run is excellent OR one can bring up one's SL to break even and after 20 pip level use a trailing stop.

If one uses a similar template to mine - one can see that the sell trade last Thursday was very much going with the strong prevailing trend so made sense to let it run!

So just to mention again for everyone - if one pending is triggered - don't close the other trade


Kind Rgds


Jerry
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liamg4x Jan 6, 2013 8:09am | Post# 20

I'm in....:looks like my kind of trading.

Thank's Jerry
Paul.


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