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-   -   Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=402253)

brrand Aug 3, 2017 9:40am | Post# 30821

{quote} USD JPY: NSL is correct EUR USD: LH to NSH is correct as well Brrand, try to look for harmonic patterns to complete as well...when they do, you will see corrections taking place on the pattern completion. And also try to look for confluence between the Intraday and Long term. And long term plays 70% of the time so if your intraday completes on your long term expectation then you trade the long term strategy of yours

Hi RajD, can you elaborate with a chart?

Appreciate the feedback.

RajD Aug 3, 2017 10:34am | Post# 30822

Missed one beautiful entry on the USDJPY. Hope you got it Peter

PeterT Aug 3, 2017 11:05am | Post# 30823

Missed one beautiful entry on the USDJPY. Hope you got it Peter
I went long before the drop.
Still in it and riding the pain train.
This might still be a deep correction before a further move up :-)

PeterT Aug 3, 2017 4:22pm | Post# 30824

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YM today:
+1 +1
Both were trades that could have given me lots of ticks but I was taken out because protected early.
Trade 1: bears were coming back in and produced volume candles. I thought the correction would potentially be too deep to recover from it before market close. So I protected at BE. Wanted to re-enter at deeper correction if circumstances would allow it.

Trade 2: Circumstances were there, price corrected deep and produced rotation candle. I took a long entry. But PA was fast and violent and scared me so I protected immediately. Price came back, took me out, went a few points below my stop level, and then went for the moon. Classic one.

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dogdays713 Aug 3, 2017 4:29pm | Post# 30825

good after noon every one just wanted to say thank you to every here for all the great info,
been flowing this thread for about 4 or 5 mo, reading the thread and watching he videos. have learned a lot,
but still more to learn. again thank you all so much. i had a great day for me any way. one trade for +22 and one for +5.

PeterT Aug 3, 2017 4:57pm | Post# 30826

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{quote} I went long before the drop. Still in it and riding the pain train. This might still be a deep correction before a further move up :-)
USDJPY long
SL was hit. -50 pips. Sounds disastrous but I adjust lot size so every trade has about the same risk.
Expectation intraday was a NSH. Price already corrected to 61.8%, double-bottomed there and went up but couldn't make a NSH. Came back down and I went long after rotation candle again at the 61.8%. Price went up a little, then came back down and corrected deeper. I had put my SL beneath the main intraday swing we were correcting from. Unfortunately, not enough bulls teamed up and price broke down and hit my SL.

I could have expected a deeper correction looking at the PA. And therefore I shold have waited for a deeper correction to enter. There I would not have found an entry because bear impulse was too big. It would have saved me.
And if I really wanted to just play the bounce off 61.8%, I should have put my SL right below that level.

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josid Aug 3, 2017 5:02pm | Post# 30827

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So I have been practicing with historical data and I was really excited about my progress until I began practicing live during market sessions. Feels totally different taking trades live even with a demo account.

YM today:
+2 -22 -27

Trade one: I protected early. I need to give room for price to do it's thing
Trade two: Any veteran please feel free to let me know how I saw this wrong, or if this is just an expectation failure
Trade three: And because I assumed there was an expectation failure I took an entry short. Looking back, I should have been cautions with the strength shown by buyers. The rotation candle also traded slightly above the close of previous candle.

In general, it felt like I chased price quite a bit. I'll keep grinding.
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vqtrader Aug 3, 2017 5:40pm | Post# 30828

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hope you had success with this crappy chart today and didn't get whipped
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vqtrader Aug 3, 2017 8:29pm | Post# 30829

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These are my down side target I will keep my eye on for short. Once it breaks out complex(orange) looking down for targets. These are strong demand areas so have to be cautious.
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Coreg2004 Aug 3, 2017 10:02pm | Post# 30830

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YM today: +1 +1 Both were trades that could have given me lots of ticks but I was taken out because protected early. Trade 1: bears were coming back in and produced volume candles. I thought the correction would potentially be too deep to recover from it before market close. So I protected at BE. Wanted to re-enter at deeper correction if circumstances would allow it. Trade 2: Circumstances were there, price corrected deep and produced rotation candle. I took a long entry. But PA was fast and violent and scared me so I protected immediately. Price...
Reason for taking the trade; Completion of point D in ABCD pattern
Trigger; 2B (http://trading-naked.com/2b-reversal.htm)
Target; I had four choices 1) 127.2% Ext. of iv-v at 970
2) GLX open at 972
3) 61.8% Ret. of AD
Stop loss; 946
That's how I analyze PA Peter before I enter the trade b/c for sure I am not wiser when I am in the market.
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PeterT Aug 4, 2017 3:59am | Post# 30831

{quote} Reason for taking the trade; Completion of point D in ABCD pattern Trigger; 2B (http://trading-naked.com/2b-reversal.htm) Target; I had four choices 1) 127.2% Ext. of iv-v at 970 2) GLX open at 972 3) 61.8% Ret. of AD Stop loss; 946 That's how I analyze PA Peter before I enter the trade b/c for sure I am not wiser when I am in the market. {image}
Both entries were based on confluence of fib, structure, harmonics. So I was ok with them.
I was not happy with the way I managed the trades, so my post focused on the reason why I exited.
I didn't post it because I was proud of it, more because I wanted to point out the mistakes I made managing the trades.

I get your message clearly. You do the analysis before the entry, and that stays your analysis so you don't have to think during the trade and take emotional decisions.
The second trade was certainly emotional.
The first trade I went to BE because I don't want to hold a position over night and I was afraid I would be stuck with a losing position at market close, even though I believed in the trade working out eventually.

But I get the message, thanks for sharing and advice :-)

Can I ask a question about your trade?
You say you had four possible targets.
Do you decide during the trade which one you will use, based on the price action in those areas?
Or is it already decided when you enter?
And something else I was wondering is: where did you go to BE? Or where would you have gone to BE if the trade had not gone straight to target? It's a fairly small distance to target so I can imagine you don't go to BE?

Luni Aug 4, 2017 4:50am | Post# 30832

Guys, there is something i don't quite understand, is there any difference between trading spot forex and currency futures? I mean i get that in one i virtually make the money exchange and on the other i make a contract for it without actually exchanging anything but from a trader standpoint is there even a difference whether on chart and price action, or about profits, cost of trading etc...

From what i see, in forex brokers can be market makers, however in futures your orders goes directly into market, also in futures there is 0 spread with commisions.
But i got to mention that im working with an ECN broker which also puts my orders directly into market and provides account types that are 0 spread and commision based if i chose to do so.

So what difference left between these?

One more thing i noticed is, timeframe based charts are giving more choppy results and false momentum, i find that tick charts are better representative of the price action for me. From my understanding, since there is no centeral exchange for forex, tick data may not be accurate because it's a fraction of the whole market. But ECN brokers get their data directly from liquidity providers so i assume it should be reflecting the markets true reactions.

Now is it ok for me to use an ECN brokers tick data, or must i have to get into futures if i want to use tick charts only ?

RajD Aug 4, 2017 4:54am | Post# 30833

2 Attachment(s)
USDJPY Analysis

Intraday: NSL

- Market currently just farting around in the same area since the open
- If you take a look at the 5 m chart, price is already at the golden zone of the clear swing, so if it does stay there for a couple of hours, will look to take a short there on the best rotating candle

Expectation: Already in golden zone. If bulls decide to take over, then will look to take the harmonic swing as the clear swing today. If it sticks in the same region and will look for that rotating candle

Long Term: NSL

- After the harmonic completion, market has been correcting since midnight GMT. The clear swing here is 110.809 but i decided to go with 110.50. It's the swing right above the intraday swing. Just testing something. 110.809 is the main swing so use this for your long term analysis

Expectation: Would like to see the market coming to the clear swing golden zone but all depends on intraday movements
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RajD Aug 4, 2017 6:06am | Post# 30834

took the short at 110.044

x3m-PippiN Aug 4, 2017 10:31am | Post# 30835

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Yesterday was a loss for me and a badly managed trade.
My short entry was dumb but I realized that a bit too late

-28 and +1
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ckh626 Aug 4, 2017 10:35am | Post# 30836

Guys, there is something i don't quite understand, is there any difference between trading spot forex and currency futures? I mean i get that in one i virtually make the money exchange and on the other i make a contract for it without actually exchanging anything but from a trader standpoint is there even a difference whether on chart and price action, or about profits, cost of trading etc... From what i see, in forex brokers can be market makers, however in futures your orders goes directly into market, also in futures there is 0 spread with commisions....
Depends on what you're looking to trade. There is always a spread, and depending on which contract you trade, the spread can be pretty large during off hours resulting in fill slippage. Is the spread + commission that much different than spot? That I don't know. I think you pay a bit of a premium to play futures, especially if you trade below 1 lot in the e-minis and e-micros. futures run about 2 pips for commissions and fees, plus a spread of 1 pip. with spot, the marketmaker can break the spread down into fractions of a pip, so for something like usdjpy or eurusd, the spread can be 1.4~1.5.

That said, the margin requirements can be better with futures. USDCAD for instance has about 100:1 requirement, With others, its closer to 30:1. When I was running spot, I capped out at 50:1.

Coreg2004 Aug 4, 2017 11:53am | Post# 30837

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{quote} Both entries were based on confluence of fib, structure, harmonics. So I was ok with them. I was not happy with the way I managed the trades, so my post focused on the reason why I exited. I didn't post it because I was proud of it, more because I wanted to point out the mistakes I made managing the trades. I get your message clearly. You do the analysis before the entry, and that stays your analysis so you don't have to think during the trade and take emotional decisions. The second trade was certainly emotional. The first trade I went...
Peter be decisive, make the executive decision and stick with it.
Now we have the market in summer mode with the thin volume (way below 100 G contracts) so every 10 contracts a specialist puts on will print the rotation bar to fake you.
In trending markets, it's smart to trail the stop loss but not so in consolidating/ranging. Of course like usually these are only my thoughts how I see the day trading, I believe you will take what suits you the best and at the end, you will find your own way to trade.
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PeterT Aug 4, 2017 6:19pm | Post# 30838

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YM today:
Only 1 trade. +30 ticks
after ABCD pattern completion
Missed the perfect entry because I didn't want to enter before market open.
After market open expecation failure in immediate.
NSL was made, followed by a correction.
Felt this was the second chance to get in the move down
Target 61.8% correction of AD

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GBPUSD long entered yesterday
after big drop bears seemed to weaken
There was good structure to the far left (not in picture)
Double bottomed and strong rotation candle
Thought price would fill the gap or at least part of it
Held the trade overnight but it never really got anywhere.
Protected and secured some profit because NFP was coming.
Taken out at +18 pips.

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PeterT Aug 4, 2017 6:56pm | Post# 30839

Summary of the week:

YM:
Total of the week +41 in 14 trades (-11 -14 +1 +2 -12 +14 -17 -4 +6 +23 +21 +1 +1 +30)
Main issue was still early protecting to BE.
Changed that attitude in the last trade. Got me +30 pips instead of a certain BE trade. Will try to keep it up next week.

USDJPY+GBPUSD:
difficult to say as I traded with different lot sizes. So pips say nothing. Overall I made a small profit (3-4% of account size)

PeterT Aug 4, 2017 8:10pm | Post# 30840

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So I have been practicing with historical data and I was really excited about my progress until I began practicing live during market sessions. Feels totally different taking trades live even with a demo account. YM today: +2 -22 -27 Trade one: I protected early. I need to give room for price to do it's thing Trade two: Any veteran please feel free to let me know how I saw this wrong, or if this is just an expectation failure Trade three: And because I assumed there was an expectation failure I took an entry short. Looking back, I should have been...
You were calling for a veteran. I am not a veteran, but I can give you my opinion.
I recognize the problems you are having. I had them too.
You are getting lost in the different orderflows.
I marked some things on the chart and tried to explain.

Trade 1: I took almost the exact same entry. And I made almost the exact same mistake. Protecting too early.
Trade 2: I have put explanation on the chart why it was not a good place to go long.
Trade 3: You are right, it was an expectation failure. But in the immediate orderflow. In the higher orderflow, the short term, we were still expecting a NSH, see chart.

I hope it helps you a bit.
Also watch Mr. Pip's videos again that cover the subject of navigating through different orderflows.
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