i hear you. :-) I actually wrote an indicator to record differences in spread for several brokers, and tallinex and finfx are a rare breed that don't spike spread randomly. they spike when expected, during news events and such. But Oanda and even FXCM had variations that I just couldn't tolerate. (This wasn't just a couple pips, I'm talking significant spread moves. It's not always detectable, unless you're unlucky enough to get stopped out of a trade, because sometimes it happens within seconds and unless you have an indicator that will show you or record these numbers you'll never see it.)
Damian I want to echo a lot of what has already been said, taking so much time out for us, with all your teachings, the thread and video content, I am very thankful to you. I personally have made great progress in my trading since participating in this thread. And I know this is the type of trading education I want to continue with. You have made great sacrifice to educate us, and I for one cannot thank you enough.
We owe you so much.
I agree completely! Thank you so very much!!!
Here are the ground rules for the training ahead. I will ask that everyone follow them as it will make it easier on me to help you and there is a lot to cover so we don't need to get side tracked. I will present it to you in the order by which it is used. This way you can learn the proper sequence and how to apply what has been learned.
1. No posting of any material that is not related to the lesson of the week.
2. Posting will be limited to the DOW Futures or the EURUSD 15M period. What I will teach you is relevant to any time frame or instrument but for the sake of continuity and to make my life easier that is what we will work with.
3. The weekly video with be uploaded to YouTube on Sunday and the link will be posted in the thread like the videos in the past. Also with the video there will be a post on the lesson.
4. I want to see as much participation from everyone as possible. Remember, this is your opportunity ask questions and to post your work for review. This is not a one way highway. I want to see if you are getting it. Opportunities like this do not come often or at all. DON"T WASTE IT!
5. DO THE WORK! Laziness will keep you where you are. The Market will not wait for you to catch up and neither will I.
6. Have fun.
My Trading objectives are as follows:
It feels like I'm about to take a major turning point to success in my trading business and life. A dream come true. This is exciting! Thanks Damien! ;-)
Let's get started! The first thing I want you to is to get rid of all of the indicators from your charts! One you learn to process the information that is on a price chart they will offer you nothing that you should not already know. I will teach you how to trade from the right side of the chart where price has not printed yet. Indicators can only tell you what has already happened. They have 0 predictive value and therefore cannot offer you any help. This very lesson alone will have you aligning yourself with what price will do moving forward with over 70% accuracy that means that your trading should improve dramatically. So here we go!
Structure Analysis is the foundation to proper chart reading. It is also by far the most neglected component to technical analysis among traders. Market Structure is how the chart speaks to us technical analysts and lets us know with very high degrees of probability where it wants to go next. It is our job to pick up on these clues to properly and accurately forecast where the market is heading.
Contrary to the beliefs of many of my colleges the market is not random and forecasting its future path with accuracy is completely possible.
Market Structure is much more then horizontal lines that indicate Support or Resistance or on a more complex level areas of Supply and Demand. This is where novice technicians seek to identify imbalances between the two and where they fall prey to the highly skilled 10%ers.
Performing proper and meaningful Structure Analysis in tells the proper identification of certain structural landmarks, the relevance of those land marks and the proper expectation that derives from the combination of these three components.
Supply and Demand or Support and Resistance have nothing to do with structure analysis. I will address this later.
I use four basic descriptions to identify the structural landmarks I am particularly interested in. These landmarks assist me in forming expectations for price to follow. These four basic landmarks and the respective expectations that should follow are:
1. New Structure High (NSH) – This is a new high in a price swing and forms from an impulse leg or move up. This is a clear message that the market intends to move higher. The expectation from this is for price to correct or as some would call retrace into the next expectation.
2. Higher Low (HL) – This is an expectation from a NSH and is known as the retracement, correction or the corrective swing. This is how the market confirms to us that it indeed wants to move higher. The expectation from this is another impulsive move into another NSH.
3. New Structure Low (NSL) – This is a new low in a price swing and forms from an impulse leg or move down. This is a clear message that market intends to move lower. The expectation from this is for price to correct or retrace into the next expectation.
4. Lower High (LH) – This is an expectation from a NSL and is known as the retracement, correction or corrective swing. This is how the market confirms to us that it indeed wants to move lower. The expectation from this is another impulsive move into another NSL.
It is vital to have and trade with expectations as they keep you in line with the strength of the market as well as with proper order flow. These basic expectations of Structure Analysis alone will help you forecast with a very high degree of accuracy where the market intends to move to next.
Here is a video that demonstrates this process and it's accuracy. As always please comment and post on the content and start showing me your work.
Fantastic video! Your mic was fine, I didn't hear much background noise. I might have heard your dog walking across the tile floor once, but it wasn't distracting, I was completely engaged in listening to what you had to teach. :-) It could have likely been my own dog, that's how engaged I was. lol
Ok, here's my chart. I'm on EURUSD 15m. **I went back to aug 5, because I think we're all going to be posting nearly the same chart otherwise. If you want me to post recent chart, I will. :-)
11 Noted expectations. 2 were broken. So 9/11 == 81.81% successful expectations hit.
I labeled what looks to me like an area of indecision, which is why I didn't mark more breaks of Expectation. This is all about patience and reading order flow (which you will get into later) and that was why I held some patience in marking more in that area.
Well done Tim. I believe I forgot to mention so everyone need to read this post. The tails are not important. What is important here is the close. To achieve a NSH or NSL we must achieve a higher or lower close. The trials don't create a NSH or NSL. you did fine but I want to make sure that is clear to everyone.
This concept is fundamentally correct but the missing pieces of puzzle are the median and the tipping points/levels. So unless and until those points/levels are being located and identify everything is still 50/50 or 60/40 at best.
I am just sharing my trading thoughts without any malice or ill-intent.
Good luck and happy trading.
Ok if you are uncomfortable by my comments I will retract what I have commented..
Good luck and good-bye.
The one thing about this is that we need to know if the price when it rise to the last nsh, will it be a nsh or a lh ? The problem is we only know this after the price break the last nsh for a nsh or fail to break the last nsh to give a lh. The common denominator is AFTER. We need to know right now not after to make the trade. If anyone has any pointers to this I will be all ears ?
Great video, Mr. Pip! Thanks for sharing it as ever.
So what I am getting from this is basically that we are looking for a pattern of HHs and HLs or else LHs and LLs to determine whether we are in an uptrend or a downtrend. Once the direction of price is thus determined, it is expected to continue *until* the high or low of the swing we are working with is taken out in the opposite direction. Once this occurs, there is an expectation of a change in trend, with LHs and LLs (if the prior trend was bullish) to follow.
I don't have access to the computer I trade from right now but will post a chart tomorrow.
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