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Luis Carlos Jun 20, 2012 10:51pm | Post# 1

Elliott wave outlook
 
Hi Everybody,

1. This thread is for people that use or want to use Elliott Wave (EW) as a tool to improve his/her trading.

2. This thread is for people that want to work as a team to make money.

The idea is to share different points of view and technics, not only EW, to reach a consensus.

3. This thread is for people that think to know about EW and dont know that it is a psyco tool.

A lot of "master of trading" or "people that never lose a call" like to talk about EW as a trash. That is because dont know anything about it.

4. This thread is not for MORONS, people that think "they are the last glass of water in the desert"

5. Here we going to talk about key fundamentals, no everyday noise fundamentals


Good Luck!


Elliott Wave Theory

Ralph Nelson Elliott developed the Elliott Wave Theory in the late 1920s by discovering that stock markets, thought to behave in a somewhat chaotic manner, in fact traded in repetitive cycles.

Elliott discovered that these market cycles resulted from investors' reactions to outside influences, or predominant psychology of the masses at the time. He found that the upward and downward swings of the mass psychology always showed up in the same repetitive patterns, which were then divided further into patterns he termed "waves".

Elliott's theory is somewhat based on the Dow theory in that stock prices move in waves. Because of the "fractal" nature of markets, however, Elliott was able to break down and analyze them in much greater detail. Fractals are mathematical structures, which on an ever-smaller scale infinitely repeat themselves. Elliott discovered stock-trading patterns were structured in the same way.

Market Predictions Based on Wave Patterns
Elliott made detailed stock market predictions based on unique characteristics he discovered in the wave patterns. An impulsive wave, which goes with the main trend, always shows five waves in its pattern. On a smaller scale, within each of the impulsive waves, five waves can again be found. In this smaller pattern, the same pattern repeats itself ad infinitum. These ever-smaller patterns are labeled as different wave degrees in the Elliott Wave Principle. Only much later were fractals recognized by scientists.


In the financial markets we know that "every action creates an equal and opposite reaction" as a price movement up or down must be followed by a contrary movement. Price action is divided into trends and corrections or sideways movements. Trends show the main direction of prices while corrections move against the trend. Elliott labeled these "impulsive" and "corrective" waves.


Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#ixzz1yOSMdHBB


BOOKS OF INTEREST

THE ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE by Frost

'Technical Analysis of The Financial Market " By John J Murphy

RMiranda Jun 20, 2012 11:00pm | Post# 2

beginner
 
Hello Carlos, congrats for your own thread! I just started reading Neo EW so im looking forward to see real time examples (not the ones in the book). I am subscribing to this thread. Exitos!!

Luis Carlos Jun 20, 2012 11:46pm | Post# 3

Hello Carlos, congrats for your own thread! I just started reading Neo EW so im looking forward to see real time examples (not the ones in the book). I am subscribing to this thread. Exitos!!
Por favor Roberto borra el comentario que me faltaron poner mas fotos. Gracias

Luis Carlos Jun 20, 2012 11:48pm | Post# 4

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Theory Interpretation
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BFSGcapital Jun 20, 2012 11:50pm | Post# 5

It's about time you made this thread!

Thanks and will be a regular reader for sure

Let me know if you need me to delete this post..

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 12:02am | Post# 6

It's about time you made this thread!

Thanks and will be a regular reader for sure

Let me know if you need me to delete this post..
Thank you man! Dont worry I need just the two above.

balanced2012 Jun 21, 2012 12:03am | Post# 7

Theory Interpretation

Congratulations Carlos

Please keep the good posts which been educating many of new traders and me one of them .... good luck and all the best !!

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 12:10am | Post# 8

Congratulations Carlos

Please keep the good posts which been educating many of new traders and me one of them .... good luck and all the best !!
Thank very much. I will try to the best.

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 12:20am | Post# 9

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This is my weekly timeframe count. I try to do the best using the rules.

You must find out thousands of different counts of this pair and that is because the count depends of the view or interpretation that who is doing it.

You can see some targets for EUR/USD low, which ones could be differents in lowers timeframes.
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Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 12:47am | Post# 10

OIL
 
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Here is another example.

Looking for a ABC correction uses a fib expantion and we can find some targets for the next years. That is good to know because if you are a buyer and you are in those levels next years, the risk is too high to buy because we expect a swing down.

Also look at that could have FLAT correction. Using fib expantion we try to look at the equal wave as a target, that is 70.68 as a correction ending, but could be other targets like 1.272 or 1.618 fib levels or a good support. So you cant buy there before look a confirmation that the cycle is over.
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Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 1:01am | Post# 11

EUR/USD
 
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I posted this early when I saw the possibility of a new high, but when the market overlap the wave 1 I confirmed no more highs before get more lower.

The line in the chart has no measure.

To confirm the resume of bears, with this count we need to break 1.2555

Good Nite!!!
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polatok Jun 21, 2012 3:21am | Post# 12

Congratulations luis for this thread. this will be a great place for the ew traders.

Good luck.

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 8:42am | Post# 13

EU 15 MIN
 
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This is a near term outlook. Everybody knows that is it hard to count corrections, but this could be happening right now.

1. Yellow: we finish 2 and then go higher
2. White: break 1.2657 and finish the correction @(1.26-1.2630)
3. Break 1.2555 confirm bears.


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Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 12:07pm | Post# 14

EU 15 MIN
 
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The white count doesnt gonna make it. So we need to be prepare with the yellow one.
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Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 12:18pm | Post# 15

I will tell you how I use paths in EW. For example: Yesterday I had to path remaining and both should go down, but could return. So If both should go down then I shorted at 1.2703 a nice lot after US market. Then when the market was 1.2670 I put a stop at 1.2700 to protect me of the possible come back. What happened? I stopped out at 1.27003 and I missed all the profits.

What was my mistake, my mistake was put the stop thinking in 1.27 because is a round number, and not good technical price. At least I have a small short in aussie.

We still have good opportunities un EU to get short in the wave 2

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 12:46pm | Post# 16

EU 15min and 1h
 
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Until now I dont anything more. Wave 3 is near to finish or is done (if there is not more extensions).

The 1h chart is done. Now we need to watch this down trend to determinate if this is definitive or is just a ABC correction of big yellow (A)
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polatok Jun 21, 2012 12:50pm | Post# 17

Luis, form where is the Big a coming now ? i don't see any 12345 complete yet. we are at wave 4 right ?

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 12:55pm | Post# 18

Luis, form where is the Big a coming now ? i don't see any 12345 complete yet. we are at wave 4 right ?
Yes, could be if we reach @ 1.2585 if wave 4

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 1:03pm | Post# 19

If somebody has another view should be good to know!

polatok Jun 21, 2012 1:05pm | Post# 20

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I am counting abc only with channel and fib.
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Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 1:12pm | Post# 21

I am counting abc only with channel and fib.
Ok, I was thinking how to get that A, so there is a way, that you count is good. Let me do the chart in details.

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 1:33pm | Post# 22

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Polatok, here is your count is good. I just dont like that it broke the trendline, but until now 1.255 today low is perfect FLAT.
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sukkim Jun 21, 2012 1:35pm | Post# 23

@Luis It's great to get your EW thread on FF. I hope all of active EW traders ask and share their own views here. I would be really happy get recent EW analysis with different TF. Thanks

polatok Jun 21, 2012 1:35pm | Post# 24

Polatok, here is your count is good. I just dont like that it broke the trendline, but until now 1.255 today low is perfect FLAT.
Yes i think this is a perfect count now. we already start going 2603 may be more 2634 before today start.

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 1:38pm | Post# 25

@Luis It's great to get your EW thread on FF. I hope all of active EW traders ask and share their own views here. I would be really happy get recent EW analysis with different TF. Thanks
I am glad you like. I hope see your charts to talk about them too

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 1:41pm | Post# 26

Yes i think this is a perfect count now. we already start going 2603 may be more 2634 before today start.
Yes, it is good, but dont try to stick in a count. I always lose when I do that. If I see your count is looking good I will change mine.

polatok Jun 21, 2012 1:47pm | Post# 27

Yes, it is good, but dont try to stick in a count. I always lose when I do that. If I see your count is looking good I will change mine.
Yes i will share my count for sure brother. Sharing is caring. hope some day i will get a voucher for that.

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 1:52pm | Post# 28

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We are moving, maybe wave 4, typical correction are .236-.382 fib levels. Also 0.12, but I use more typical moves.

Both levels right now are good. They return to a before wave 4.
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sukkim Jun 21, 2012 1:54pm | Post# 29

Yes i will share my count for sure brother. Sharing is caring. hope some day i will get a voucher for that.
You must do that, I would also see how you are counting.

polatok Jun 21, 2012 1:55pm | Post# 30

We are moving, maybe wave 4, typical correction are .236-.382 fib levels. Also 0.12, but I use more typical moves.

Both levels right now are good. They return to a before wave 4.
Every count show that euro is not doing further up may be 20/30 pips.

I am placing my long term short near 1.26** already got one at 1.27** if its go to 1.28 then another short.

Wave 5 is not so far.

sukkim Jun 21, 2012 2:00pm | Post# 31

Every count show that euro is not doing further up may be 20/30 pips.

I am placing my long term short near 1.26** already got one at 1.27** if its go to 1.28 then another short.

Wave 5 is not so far.
Please attach the image file, which give us clearly what you are saying.

polatok Jun 21, 2012 2:30pm | Post# 32

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I was checking my count again and now it's make perfect count. this down was needed before a go up to 1.2820.

check the new count now.

In Big wave C wave a is 300 pips so there is a good chance that wave c will be 300 pips coz we know a = c. Now if you count today low so far is 2560 and + 300 is 2860 which is makes my count perfect.

Also the Big wave A is 380 pips and Big wave C also must me 380 pips.

So far ew rules with fib makes my calculations is perfect.

So i think next day will be a bull day.

Now check the chart
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Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 3:07pm | Post# 33

I was checking my count again and now it's make perfect count. this down was needed before a go up to 1.2820.

check the new count now.

In Big wave C wave a is 300 pips so there is a good chance that wave c will be 300 pips coz we know a = c. Now if you count today low so far is 2560 and + 300 is 2860 which is makes my count perfect.

Also the Big wave A is 380 pips and Big wave C also must me 380 pips.

So far ew rules with fib makes my calculations is perfect.

So i think next day will be a bull day.

Now check the chart
It is not bad. Try to find levels of confirmation and share them to dont kill yourself staying in one count.

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 4:31pm | Post# 34

DOLLAR 4H CHART
 
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polatok Jun 21, 2012 4:57pm | Post# 35

It is not bad. Try to find levels of confirmation and share them to dont kill yourself staying in one count.
My count suggest long before final short. but i am already start short trade.

I am placing my long term short near 1.26** already got one at 1.27** if its go to 1.28 then another short.

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 5:25pm | Post# 36

EU 4H CHART
 
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We have a nice break of the correction trendline and the chart forms, until now, a nice channel that suggest the up move slowdown and the cycle could be completed.

I think a retest of the channel could be nice to enter a long term position short or maybe until find out wave A downstairs.

Now, Look the RSI. You must use the RSI to determinate cycles and help you with your EW count. You can see how the RSI break the trendline when a cycle is finished.

Look how divergences help you to determine the end of a count and also can help you count waves better.
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polatok Jun 21, 2012 5:38pm | Post# 37

I am a regular visitor of some ew blogs and most of them showing in there chart that already the wave 5 start and it's start today when they brake the channel.
My 4 hour channel also brake. but i will wait to brake the 23.6 fib line at 1.2527 then i will invite some bear to my home.

We will party till 1.2000. haha.

http://www.psnnewsletter.com/images/...rBearParty.gif

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 5:49pm | Post# 38

I am a regular visitor of some ew blogs and most of them showing in there chart that already the wave 5 start and it's start today when they brake the channel.
My 4 hour channel also brake. but i will wait to brake the 23.6 fib line at 1.2527 then i will invite some bear to my home.

We will party till 1.2000. haha.

http://www.psnnewsletter.com/images/...rBearParty.gif
Haha nice going!!!

Luis Carlos Jun 21, 2012 5:50pm | Post# 39

Aussie Dollar 4h
 
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Very similar to euro dollar.
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polatok Jun 21, 2012 6:02pm | Post# 40

Very similar to euro dollar.
yes people show that there chart wave 3 is start and confirm today GBP/USD will be same tomorrow. one of my mates earn 170+ pips sofar form aud/usd and i miss that. he told me to open but i don't because eur/usd confused me.

so far if i take others chart in consideration than:

eur/usd wave 5 start
aud/usd wave 3 start
gbp/usd wave 3 will start tomorrow. and all are in the beginning position so lot's of pips waiting for us.

i will open once i see a fib level crossed.

good luck luis. i am going to bed bye.


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