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The Cableguy Mar 1, 2013 5:50am | Post# 8141

Yes, I'm looking at waves 3 to 5 on your chart and they are so zig-zaggy... I detest that: you want to get in but it looks so much like ongoing correction that you hold back and wait for a clear sign. Time passes and eventually you realize a bigger correction is unfolding - it's all over and you we're waiting like a scaredy-cat... Other times it seems so clear - wavecount, indicators, news - everything lines up, you get in and get closed out by a move that confirms your alternate count !

Exactly!

Look at the C wave of the abc correction, i simply couldn't call the top, or anything close! and then worse, (not shown on my chart, but check out the following minor 'c' wave of what i've labeled wave 'ii', it looked so small i thought it was merely 'a'! I was calling the down move a (further) irregular 'b' for ages! I was so sure we would retest the breakout of the weekly wedge! So yes, i had a position, but it was so small, cos i was sure we would soon head back up for a 'c' wave... it never came!

The Cableguy Mar 1, 2013 5:59am | Post# 8142

Here's a later chart, but i am now dismissing the latter count somewhat;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...4h21-02-13.png

It did indeed retest my channel line and drop, but i'm now wondering if it will simply continue dropping and wave 3 becomes a larger multiple of wave 1 (3/4/500%),

again the problem i have is the possibility of this (posted earlier this week);

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...uw25-02-13.png

Is it just the first set of a larger cycle?!

The clue might be the irregular correction. This of course means the following wave should be extended (and in the case of a 3rd, that means longer than 161.8%).
If that is the case, surely we can forget any retest of the weekly wedge?!

It's the classic case of calling it correctly, but PA on smaller scales making it impossible to just sell a big position and ride it, (unless your name is Soros!)

crosswind Mar 1, 2013 6:01am | Post# 8143

Hi venzen.
The (ewp) book you mention,sounds the buisness for counting,what is title author.
Regards.
Cross.

venzen Mar 1, 2013 6:11am | Post# 8144

Hi venzen.
The (ewp) book you mention,sounds the buisness for counting,what is title author.
Regards.
Cross.
Cross, its a must-have for every Elliottician:

"Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter

You can buy it from elliottwave.com. I've had my copy for 2 years now and I look at it more and more everyday.

Uturn2 Mar 1, 2013 6:25am | Post# 8145

Here's a later chart, but i am now dismissing the latter count somewhat;



The clue might be...
Cheers cg
I really value your charts, though not trading GU
Thank you for the vouch mate!

crosswind Mar 1, 2013 6:26am | Post# 8146

Hi venzen
i have that book ,they recomend you keep reading yes,seems the counting waves comes with more practise yes and following the experts.(thanx)
regards.
Cross

venzen Mar 1, 2013 6:41am | Post# 8147

Here's a later chart, but i am now dismissing the latter count somewhat;

It did indeed retest my channel line and drop, but i'm now wondering if it will simply continue dropping and wave 3 becomes a larger multiple of wave 1 (3/4/500%),
CG, there is certainly a lot of technical trading happening in this pair. Look how it sticks to trendlines and jumps between channels. But the waves are choppy and their relationships are disfunctional. The corrections are non-descipt and either puny or completely exaggerated! There is just nothing about the 4H PA that conforms to "Common Wave Relationships" as we would expect them in principle. Well done for analyzing and counting that.. that.. mess

Another thing: MACD and RSI seem to indicate your count is spot-on (e.g. where you have minor iii (of 3) at bottom-right, MACD has a max value indicating major momentum). I drew a trendline connecting the ends of i of 1 and iii of 3 and it translates into perfect sub-channels which "herd" the PA decline.

again the problem i have is the possibility of this (posted earlier this week);

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...uw25-02-13.png

Is it just the first set of a larger cycle?!

The clue might be the irregular correction. This of course means the following wave should be extended (and in the case of a 3rd, that means longer than 161.8%).
If that is the case, surely we can forget any retest of the weekly wedge?!

It's the classic case .... (unless your name is Soros!) .
Hahaha! about Soros! Well, to be honest with you - this latter chart scares me. It seems to indicate a massive down surge - but when have the markets EVER given us what we expect? There is definitely a trick in there somewhere. Fundamentally, the implied surge downward means the collapse of the Pound and with it... I don't want to say...

venzen Mar 1, 2013 6:52am | Post# 8148

Hi venzen
i have that book ,they recomend you keep reading yes,seems the counting waves comes with more practise yes and following the experts.(thanx)
regards.
Cross
Practice for sure. I also think that there is a lot to be said for the skill and insight of individual counters (like on this forum thread) because the guys who work for massive companies have to toe a line and don't neccesarily call it what it is. But as you say: Practice - it's the only way to sharpen your counting skills. And work hard to understand an experienced counter's logic. Make mistakes and learn. Also, always check Fib relationships inside and between waves as per the EWP book.


BTW: When are you going to post us a little something?

venzen Mar 1, 2013 7:01am | Post# 8149

careful today - VIX is spiking up - lots of whipsaw

i wonder if this would be a good time to go exchange that old 5euro note for dollars?

The Cableguy Mar 1, 2013 7:08am | Post# 8150

The thing is, it is more about the 's weakness than indicating anything untoward with regards to markets in general. Look at the correlation between markets since the start of 2013 and Cable!
I personally see Cable at 1.25 area before the end of the year!

The Cableguy Mar 1, 2013 7:11am | Post# 8151

Labeling this as a 4th myself saw me lose money shorting this SOB. Whichever way you label it otherwise, this was an abc and it was correct!

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...5m26-02-13.png

motley tool Mar 1, 2013 7:45am | Post# 8152

Hi Motley,

Tim's count is valid. The chart is 1H timeframe so the subwaves are not visible. If you look at a 5min TF you will see that, for example, wave 1 (down from the red X) has 5 waves internally. We often post summary charts for the sake of being brief
Ok fair enough. I figured as much. If I'm trying to assess the count on a larger time frame, I prefer that the count be confirmed on an hourly, but to each his own.

venzen Mar 1, 2013 7:59am | Post# 8153

Labeling this as a 4th myself saw me lose money shorting this SOB. Whichever way you label it otherwise, this was an abc and it was correct!
I've never liked trading EU and have consistently gotten myself into big "trade-myself-into-a-corner" doo-doo whenever I come near this pair. Except this time - when I dicovered this thread and saw the bearish EU counts posted here I was like OK, fast-and-loose strategy on the way down: guestimate a correction top and place orders with trailing stops and with TPs on the Fib projections/pivots. Reckless I know, but it has been minimally profitable with relatively few losses (and plenty stop-outs on those pesky trailing stops!). The psychological benefit has been great having those small profits every day - but not something I will even dream about with proper "rulebook" trades.

Should EU go below 1.30 and retest and kiss goodbye I'm in short: no matter the specifics of the count - we can't discern one anyway right? I'll build with miniscule small positions each retracement and let them run with trailing stops... Not an admirable technique and not something I would recommend but a strategy for a persistent faller with no clear internals. Again: this is not for significant profit. No - for that I have a big rusty axe to grind with the Dow Jones...

crosswind Mar 1, 2013 8:51am | Post# 8154

Hi folks
seems like gold is on the move,is that the end of wave 5 , have a awesome weekend.
Cross

venzen Mar 1, 2013 9:23am | Post# 8155

Hi folks
seems like gold is on the move,is that the end of wave 5 , have a awesome weekend.
Cross
Not sure... some people have gold in wave 3, some in wave 5 - at least one more impulse down (after the current correction) is a safe bet.

Olu Mar 1, 2013 9:27am | Post# 8156

Hi folks
seems like gold is on the move,is that the end of wave 5 , have a awesome weekend.
Cross

I'm still looking for a bit more to the downside before any meaningful retracement

olu

Luis Carlos Mar 1, 2013 9:45am | Post# 8157

HI guys try to buy euro dollar at 1.2940

Uturn2 Mar 1, 2013 9:55am | Post# 8158

Thanks Luis!
[I'm only scalping PA at current level]
HI guys try to buy euro dollar at 1.2940

MeInGraySuit Mar 1, 2013 10:06am | Post# 8159

Good Morning all. Looks like we are going down further on the EU. I just closed out of another +85pips. Thank you EUR/USD!!!

Uturn2 Mar 1, 2013 10:07am | Post# 8160

Good Morning all. Looks like we are going down further on the EU. I just closed out of another +85pips. Thank you EUR/USD!!!


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