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-   -   Why it is possible to predict price movement? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=359093)

Captain Jack Oct 28, 2018 1:16pm | Post# 1201

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Update 10/28/2018 - almost 6 1/2 years after my original post here......

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I stand by my statements that these are NOT random markets and price can be predicted. Time has and always will prove me correct.

-CJ-

MaxenshteinD Oct 29, 2018 12:21pm | Post# 1202

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MrFigther Apr 13, 2019 4:45pm | Post# 1203

Update 10/28/2018 - almost 6 1/2 years after my original post here...... {image} {image} {image} I stand by my statements that these are NOT random markets and price can be predicted. Time has and always will prove me correct. -CJ-

Hi Captain,
When can you explain the points from 22 to 29 on the map?

Thank you very much.

tov206 Apr 16, 2019 9:03am | Post# 1204

I have a question that only a rookie like me would ask about the chart posted. I am not understanding how your lines, as the criteria used, are drawn. What is the reason for the one line being drawn on 5/8 and such to form the diamond?

auricforecas Aug 20, 2019 1:54pm | Post# 1205

It is possible, because there are "chaotic" rules... meaning that some things work some of the time...
And as for technical analysis go... the more people believe/trade in for example... "head and shoulders"... the greater the chance it will happen
So if you trade it.. you might get money out of it, sometimes Also, if too many people go for it.. it might produce a counter effect... short squeeze etc...
All (other) things being the same... no big (high-impact) news etc...

HeyYou Aug 20, 2019 3:20pm | Post# 1206

It is possible, because there are "chaotic" rules... meaning that some things work some of the time... And as for technical analysis go... the more people believe/trade in for example... "head and shoulders"... the greater the chance it will happen So if you trade it.. you might get money out of it, sometimes Also, if too many people go for it.. it might produce a counter effect... short squeeze etc... All (other) things being the same... no big (high-impact) news...
exactly, a system works because ppl assume it works!

now the problem is SLIPPAGE.. last trade I got slipped 25 pips. but, overall the results are good... looks like momentum is back


P.s. don't pm me about managing accounts etc. it's unbelievable that I get so many requests, while I just come here when I'm high on beer to say the first thing that comes to mind. I appreciate it but you have to do the hard work and find something that works by yourself

auricforecas Aug 21, 2019 12:53pm | Post# 1207

{quote} exactly, a system works because ppl assume it works! now the problem is SLIPPAGE.. last trade I got slipped 25 pips. but, overall the results are good... looks like momentum is back P.s. don't pm me about managing accounts etc. it's unbelievable that I get so many requests, while I just come here when I'm high on beer to say the first thing that comes to mind. I appreciate it but you have to do the hard work and find something that works by yourself
Yeah, some guy said it quite funnily.. the other day... "it is easy to draw ANY line and say... if ti breaks this line it will go up, otherwise down - or other way around"
This is what I do not like at some "analysts".. They type it so that they are RIGHT either way.. I might be one of the rare people that put THE DIRECTION/TREND "prediction"... and also the signals... with tp/sl levels even...

BTW.. I've red your "P.S." and it is amazing why would you dislike this. Why not use this at/to your advantage.. if so many people really want you to be their account manager? Unless you are already rich af or just don't need the money Like this (without the "burn" part of course, just the "don't need money part")

HeyYou Aug 21, 2019 4:01pm | Post# 1208

{quote} Yeah, some guy said it quite funnily.. the other day... "it is easy to draw ANY line and say... if ti breaks this line it will go up, otherwise down - or other way around" This is what I do not like at some "analysts".. They type it so that they are RIGHT either way.. I might be one of the rare people that put THE DIRECTION/TREND "prediction"... and also the signals... with tp/sl levels even... BTW.. I've red your "P.S." and it is amazing why would you dislike this. Why not use this at/to your advantage.. if so many people really...

there's A LOT of disrespect for quant analysis. maybe it's because there are so many clueless """analysts""" around.

IDK, live and let die.

About the account managing thing.. there are too many implications.

- it is illegal where I live and I'd need to move abroad.
- I would get labeled as "commercial member" and that would be unbearable
- as soon as you get labeled as commercial you lose all your credibility.
- I'd need to deal with people who are ready to kill me because I lost 2 trades.
- I'd need to give my personal data to those people.
- I have more than enough money right now and I hate cars & restaurants. Oh I love cheap hotels.
- I would lose all my drinking buddies.

maybe in the future.. but definitely not on FF. cheers.

auricforecas Aug 21, 2019 4:20pm | Post# 1209

{quote} there's A LOT of disrespect for quant analysis. maybe it's because there are so many clueless """analysts""" around. IDK, live and let die. About the account managing thing.. there are too many implications. - it is illegal where I live and I'd need to move abroad. - I would get labeled as "commercial member" and that would be unbearable - as soon as you get labeled as commercial you lose all your credibility. - I'd need to deal with people who are ready to kill me because I lost 2 trades. - I'd need to give my personal data to those...
Wow excellent post/reply about the account managing thing... I agree a great deal

About the disrespect for the analysts... Can you show me any of the analysts that has a good record... if you cared to track.. Most of them write it so that they are right either way... If you would find me ONE that this is not so... I would be very happy to trade by his forecasts... It is not about respect or disrespect... It's about money! (trading). I just do not like analysts or traders that whatever happens (later) they say "I told you so"... but of course they put both options in the table... Care to find one that says it CLEAR.. Price will go DOWN/UP and vs what happened? But I do not want to spoil it for anyone... I just do not like those kind of tricks, sorry! I might be in the minority.. but I am looking for PROFIT... and for that you need things/info that work... If people are looking for other things that I already mentioned elsewhere... almost any analysis/analyst would do...

And let me say this, if anyone is looking for ANYTHING else.. than MONEY/PROFIT.. is in the wrong racket... Because you might find family, kindness, respect... in this market, but not as trader, maybe as an investor in some "scheme".. Many respect, kindness, family nice things there.... BEFORE you invest of course So if you want to talk about RESPECT, specially for some that are misguiding so many people out of lifesavings.. we might not be a good talking buddies... If you want to talk MONEY, trading... I might be the guy to talk with... What money sounds like (listen here)? How you may pay kindness (see here), after.. Hope you RESPECT the effort I took to find those clips that are funny yet reflect some reality... But I talked about this before.. I mean it is even disturbing to talk about it.. A good trader, I believe, must feel nothing... just be there for the (profitable) trades... All other things are secondary at best, just noise... Trump talked about this also... The best negotiators/traders that he knew.. were very bad people to be around with.. but they do get the job done Ok I hope you got the msg... And yes, I do not CARE for analysts with bad records.. haven't met a one reliable/usable one, over longer period of time... IF one can track what they typed anyway since they analyse in WIN-WIN (buy/sell) way... If it goes UP, it goes up, it it doesn't then it doesn't... some animal doesn't like the other or some random.. or BARELY.. almost or just... WTF... Not my style.. but be free to trade by them.... you won't have problem with managing funds, that is for sure, so maybe WIN-WIN

HeyYou Aug 21, 2019 4:48pm | Post# 1210

{quote} Wow excellent post/reply about the account managing thing... I agree a great deal About the disrespect for the analysts... Can you show me any of the analysts that has a good record... if you cared to track.. Most of them write it so that they are right either way... If you would find me ONE that this is not so... I would be very happy to trade by his forecasts... It is not about respect or disrespect... It's about money! (trading). I just do not like analysts or traders that whatever happens (later) they say "I told you so"... but...

Well first, true quant analysis means automation. You DON'T do the anlysis yourself, but you use computers to devolop your predictive models.


there are plenty of firms with proven trackrecords

I'm a retail trader and I trade HIGH RISK, so I don't need much capital to start with and I just love to see my own models working. I love the meditation that comes with trading and I'm not that interested in making money.. believe it or not lol

auricforecas Aug 21, 2019 5:11pm | Post# 1211

{quote} Well first, true quant analysis means automation. You DON'T do the anlysis yourself, but you use computers to devolop your predictive models.
Well yeah, that can be argued but the question is who is behind it, who does/sets the automation. And yeah, I watched "Quants - The Alchemists"
But yea, I much more trust automated analysis... In fact I use it myself.. partly at least... But I keep myself honest... If I fail, I fail... end of story.. I give CLEAR forecasts, I believe...

there are plenty of firms with proven trackrecords
Well not to be provocative or anything, but would like to see some of the longterm examples... in regards to analysis->trades.... Not HF or anything but like analysis and then see the after-math... I know it is extremlly hard but some make it appear like it is science/knowledge... almost "can not go wrong" and then people lose money But analysts just keep it coming and F the clients, they say

I'm a retail trader and I trade HIGH RISK, so I don't need much capital to start with and I just love to see my own models working. I love the meditation that comes with trading and I'm not that interested in making money.. believe it or not lol
Trust me, I believe you

Newme Aug 21, 2019 5:29pm | Post# 1212

This is the most unpredictable financial market of the world. No one can say definitely , what will happens after 1 seconds. We just can guessing through our past price action movements nothing else.

HeyYou Aug 21, 2019 5:37pm | Post# 1213

{quote} Well yeah, that can be argued but the question is who is behind it, who does/sets the automation. And yeah, I watched "Quants - The Alchemists" But yea, I much more trust automated analysis... In fact I use it myself.. partly at least... But I keep myself honest... If I fail, I fail... end of story.. I give CLEAR forecasts, I believe... {quote} Well not to be provocative or anything, but would like to see some of the longterm examples... in regards to analysis->trades.......
keep it simple. if it works great, if it doesn't, it doesn't. it's an all or nothing bet mate.

auricforecas Aug 21, 2019 5:46pm | Post# 1214

{quote} keep it simple. if it works great, if it doesn't, it doesn't. it's an all or nothing bet mate.
That's what I'm saying! Or were you actually quoting the name of my thread that I've opened today?
https://www.energyexch.com/showthread.php?t=942550

HeyYou Aug 21, 2019 5:50pm | Post# 1215

{quote} That's what I'm saying! Or were you actually quoting the name of my thread that I've opened today? https://www.energyexch.com/showthread.php?t=942550

hahahaha

thanks for your company.

Tilt Aug 23, 2019 3:03am | Post# 1216

To predict anything in trading is a fallacy and will hurt your psychology if coming from that frame of mind.

You don't predict anything. What you do is continuously putting yourself in a position where odds are in your favor while keeping your risk in check. Then you just let your edge play itself out in the long-term. One of the more profound trading truths a trader must get under his/her skin.

fundiwambao Aug 23, 2019 8:21am | Post# 1217

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Tilt Aug 23, 2019 8:23am | Post# 1218

{quote} trading is not a game of probability so you never know if the odds are in your favor or not. All quant firms use statistics to forecast the future. btw it doesn't hurt my psychology lol
Whatever works for you mate.
Would sure like to see you "predict" the price of BTC Sunday 12.00 UTC based on your statistical data. Maybe we can all profit from it?

HeyYou Aug 23, 2019 9:25am | Post# 1219

whatever. just show some respect for ppl who use the damn statistics lol

Tilt Aug 23, 2019 9:39am | Post# 1220

whatever. just show some respect for ppl who use the damn statistics lol
Don't know what's with the attitude mate or why you think I was disrespecting any of you. I was giving an opinion, my opinion in a public forum. Perhaps you shouldn't take it personally. Cheers!


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