Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Trading Discussion (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=11)
-   -   Why it is possible to predict price movement? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=359093)

babwilliams Jul 15, 2012 9:02am | Post# 101

Even with elliot wave theory, It is still impossible. Just follow the trend and you will be just fine

4xPIPAHOLIC Jul 15, 2012 11:40am | Post# 102

Hmmmm....
 
As much as the weather guys can predict the weather...lol!

I tell my wife.....flip a coin and most likely you will be more accurate than them...(not to put down the weather guys).....

Trader or weather guys we all work on probabilities....we take what clues we have and try to put the odds on our favor....

So do this test.....take a coin and start flipping ....
"heads - you go long, tales - you go short"....and see who is ahead, you or the coin.....if it is the coin that means you still have not found a way to put the odds on your favor......

witch.....

In the end you put the odds in your favor(to start of with) but it still all comes down to money management.....

Pipaholic

taomql4 Jul 15, 2012 12:15pm | Post# 103

1 Attachment(s)
''why is it possible to predict price movement'' - Well ,that's a little presumptuous , don't ya think ? But I present to you " the best system in the world " and the oldest too..

..Supply Vs. Demand ....

Question is - Do ya know when it's going to happen ?
Click to Enlarge

Name: CavemenTrading.jpg
Size: 191 KB

taomql4 Jul 15, 2012 12:29pm | Post# 104

2 Attachment(s)
Example -

I can Predict this fight all day long on a number of charts , but it's hard work locating the True zones and am lazy as F**k ..lol
Click to Enlarge

Name: here- we - go.gif
Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: fightnight.gif
Size: 31 KB

duyk20 Jul 15, 2012 12:41pm | Post# 105

academic papers on technical analysis?

well, one can start from here: (double click on picture below to get a better view.)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?pid=b...umber=15&w=800
From when trading includes all the academic papers and shite?

diceman555 Jul 15, 2012 5:21pm | Post# 106

If we truly thought and believe price has no predictable tendancies then i would sugest we should not be trading.price goes up or down.its behavour can be very predictable. after all it plots us.our collective belief.

if we draw the recent swings on all time frames we have an instant advantage,below that level we should be selling,above we should be buying,combine that with longer time frame range and patience ,some mm,and were good to go.if we trade the middle ,the chaos then we will always loose.the information is there and price will be our guide !

so i truly beleive price can be more predictable than many would suspect

diceman555 Jul 15, 2012 5:33pm | Post# 107

let me put it this way,

if its below that level or above that level more than 50 % of the time it will remain in that level

Captain Jack Jul 15, 2012 8:01pm | Post# 108

If we truly thought and believe price has no predictable tendancies then i would sugest we should not be trading.price goes up or down.its behavour can be very predictable. after all it plots us.our collective belief.

if we draw the recent swings on all time frames we have an instant advantage,below that level we should be selling,above we should be buying,combine that with longer time frame range and patience ,some mm,and were good to go.if we trade the middle ,the chaos then we will always loose.the information is there and price will be our...
Price can and is "predicted" and "predicted" accurately. Without any lines, indicators, S/R levels, fibo levels, moving averages, volume indicators or any other "dirt" that obscures your vision of price. Look beyond what lies on your screen and view price because price is your guide. It is all that is required.

All systems and EA's work some of the time, but none work all of the time. Very few work "most" of the time and most work seldom of the time. The reason for this is because they are programed to look for certain conditions and work when price is in agreement with those conditions. When price moves out of the conditional range, they all fail and fail miserably. The same holds true for any and all indicators. They are reactive and always lag price. Price is the only true indicator and guide that is proactive in that it provides direction and intent of price itself.

Price is NOT random and price can be followed much the same as you would follow a road on a map, or a blueprint when building a house. Price is continuous, always leaving someplace and arriving elsewhere. The only constant in the journey is time.

To use anything other than price to determine price action, is but a distraction. Pulling your vision away from what you should be looking at, what is right in front of you, price itself.

CJ

Captain Jack Jul 15, 2012 9:59pm | Post# 109

6 Attachment(s)
Damn...I disagree with just about everything you said...too funny!

You use too many absolutes that are simply not true:

"none work all of the time"...
"they all fail and fail miserably"...
"they are reactive and always lag price"...
"price is the only true indicator and guide that is proactive"

Oh well...everyone has an opinion.
To each his own, but I can post charts to support what I say. I'm not very active here in these threads and stay mostly to a private forum, but I can post charts that I have posted there in the past as well as price action relative to those charts. Some may say it's easy to photo-shop charts but most of them are in time stamped posts on the forum they were posted to.

Here's a few from the past, and if you want the post from the thread included with the charts, just ask.
Click to Enlarge

Name: 7-15-2012 9-46-17 PMt1.png
Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: 7-8-2012 8-45-24 PMt2.png
Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: 6-20-20128-22-54AM.png
Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: 7-10-201211-41-00PM.png
Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: 6-15-201212-21-14PM.png
Size: 161 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: 6-15-201212-27-09PM.png
Size: 119 KB

ha-pattern Jul 15, 2012 10:05pm | Post# 110

To each his own, but I can post charts to support what I say. I'm not very active here in these threads and stay mostly to a private forum, but I can post charts that I have posted there in the past as well as price action relative to those charts. Some may say it's easy to photo-shop charts but most of them are in time stamped posts on the forum they were posted to.

Here's a few from the past, and if you want the post from the thread included with the charts, just ask.
Nice.
What I'd call it:
Counter-weighted trend angles, displaying triangles.

I don't get the second chart.
edit: Okay, I see the pattern similar to the others.

Captain Jack Jul 15, 2012 10:25pm | Post# 111

1 Attachment(s)
Nice.
What I'd call it:
Counter-weighted trend angles, displaying triangles.

I don't get the second chart.
edit: Okay, I see the pattern similar to the others.
I trade D1 based on price only. Anything else on those charts are for the benefit of the people on the forum.

The 2nd chart is when I closed out the SELL on the 1st, and have started adding LONGS for the predicted move up.

In the 3rd set of charts, not only did I predict the movement, but also the pattern it would form when it made the move.

Price can be predicted. Here's something to follow over the next few years...see how close I can come to a long term prediction. EURUSD on the monthly time frame. I'm not 100% sure the #12 bottom has formed but it is close if it hasn't.

I have this pair mapped out up to #29, which is much lower than the #18 on this chart....
Click to Enlarge

Name: 6-16-2012 1-29-41 PMm12.png
Size: 58 KB

ha-pattern Jul 15, 2012 11:09pm | Post# 112

1 Attachment(s)
I trade D1 based on price only. Anything else on those charts are for the benefit of the people on the forum.

The 2nd chart is when I closed out the SELL on the 1st, and have started adding LONGS for the predicted move up.

In the 3rd set of charts, not only did I predict the movement, but also the pattern it would form when it made the move.

Price can be predicted. Here's something to follow over the next few years...see how close I can come to a long term prediction. EURUSD on the monthly time frame. I'm not 100% sure the #12 bottom has...
I think price could make an attempt at #13 to escape upwards; however, its angle, if not its weight, may be insufficient to counter the earliest momentum's trend angle.

Sorry for the highly convoluted language:

Click to Enlarge

Name: 6-16-2012 1-29-41 PMm12 Captain Jack -- adjusted.png
Size: 112 KB

Captain Jack Jul 15, 2012 11:39pm | Post# 113

I think price could make an attempt at #13 to escape upwards; however, its angle, if not its weight, may be insufficient to counter the earliest momentum's trend angle.

Sorry for the highly convoluted language:

Attachment 1000806
No problem at all with the language. I understand the annotations as added and it provides good insight. Only time will tell how it plays out. I would be interested to see any others idea as to what PA may do for this pair going forward, using any other methods of analysis.

If you had "projected" or "predicted" price going forward, would you have come to the same conclusions that I have or something different? I'd like to see some others ideas of what PA will do going forward and we can compare notes in time.

In my charts that are posted above, I have laid out my trading plan for AUDNZD for the coming months. I'd also be curious to see what any others would like to post if they think price is random or what it's "intent" and "direction" will be as I have done. I am LONG this pair and will scale in additional trades as PA follows the "map". D1 time frame.

duyk20 Jul 15, 2012 11:48pm | Post# 114

To each his own, but I can post charts to support what I say. I'm not very active here in these threads and stay mostly to a private forum, but I can post charts that I have posted there in the past as well as price action relative to those charts. Some may say it's easy to photo-shop charts but most of them are in time stamped posts on the forum they were posted to.

Here's a few from the past, and if you want the post from the thread included with the charts, just ask.
Trying to predict the beast, trying to outsmart it.

Rigid. Too much Rigid.

The outcome will be brutal.

Captain Jack Jul 15, 2012 11:58pm | Post# 115

Trying to predict the beast, trying to outsmart it.

Rigid. Too much Rigid.

The outcome will be brutal.
Many people are of the same belief, I am one who believes otherwise and base my trades on those beliefs. Every now and then, "verified accounts" always come up as a way to "prove" a method of trading. I normally don't keep them as they are only useful for people who are selling "snake oil". I have in the past, mirrored my live trades to a demo account as to how I trade. The most recent account I did this with was in response to a public thread at donnaforex.com

Here's the link to that account, which will no longer update as it was at PFGBest, which has shut down their servers.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/MidA...fgbest1/339716

CJ

Soldier Jul 16, 2012 12:17am | Post# 116

Many people are of the same belief, I am one who believes otherwise and base my trades on those beliefs. Every now and then, "verified accounts" always come up as a way to "prove" a method of trading. I normally don't keep them as they are only useful for people who are selling "snake oil". I have in the past, mirrored my live trades to a demo account as to how I trade. The most recent account I did this with was in response to a public thread at donnaforex.com

Here's the link to that account, which will no longer update as it was at PFGBest,...
when u already have a holygrail and u can predict future why demo account?

Captain Jack Jul 16, 2012 12:29am | Post# 117

when u already have a holygrail and u can predict future why demo account?
The only reason for the demo was in response to a public thread at donnaforex.com site.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/MidA...7147523/282516

One of my real accounts that was linked to MyFxbook for a short time...this one was "private". I trade large accounts and normally don't want my accounts to be public.

CJ

Soldier Jul 16, 2012 12:39am | Post# 118

U HAVENT TRADED ANY THING AFTER APRIL?

how many trades u take in a year?

Captain Jack Jul 16, 2012 12:51am | Post# 119

1 Attachment(s)
U HAVENT TRADED ANY THING AFTER APRIL?

how many trades u take in a year?
That "real" account is no longer broadcasting trades to MyFxBook. I am a very active trader. This was from a "scalping" account and I averaged 28 trades a day in it, over a 14 day period.

I have no need to keep any account linked to a publishing site and only post these in support of what I have posted. Price can be predicted and is not random.

CJ
Click to Enlarge

Name: 4-11-201211-54-33PMrr.png
Size: 25 KB

kk007 Jul 16, 2012 1:00am | Post# 120

Nice result. Would you mind showing the open trades of the account, so that I can see if there are any unrealised losers there?

cheers,
kk007

Many people are of the same belief, I am one who believes otherwise and base my trades on those beliefs. Every now and then, "verified accounts" always come up as a way to "prove" a method of trading. I normally don't keep them as they are only useful for people who are selling "snake oil". I have in the past, mirrored my live trades to a demo account as to how I trade. The most recent account I did this with was in response to a public thread at donnaforex.com

Here's the link to that account, which will no longer update as it was at PFGBest,...


© Forex Factory