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ns_karthik Apr 10, 2012 1:08am | Post# 1

NSK's Easy Swing Trading
 
Hi All,
I have been around FF for quite sometime. So, i will not go into details of who i am, what i have done, what i am doing etc. All the details are available for everyone to see on this forum if you check my previous posts. Just took a hiatus from blogging and posting due to business commitments. Now those commitments are settled and running smoothly and so i am back to writing about one thing that i like the most, forex.

Of course, i have my share of friends and foes in here and i can expect lot of brickbats but i dont want to waste my time with them here....i have opened my share of threads, some very successful, some got stopped just after a few posts cos i was fed up with all the negativity, one of the reasons for many of the fabulous traders who are no longer here, but who used to be around a couple of years back...

anyway, lets get started with a simple swing trading strategy which i use, along with others and i hope that this thread will be a little more successful and better than some of my recent ones....

ns_karthik Apr 10, 2012 2:16am | Post# 2

ok, first a question....then, later on, a chart...

how easy or difficult would it be to trade if we had 2 lines in a chart, which crossed each other probably once in 6 mnths and each crossover yielded 600-700 pips atleast 80% of the time that it happened?

easy to trade or difficult?

kvellimalai Apr 10, 2012 2:26am | Post# 3

ok, first a question....then, later on, a chart...

how easy or difficult would it be to trade if we had 2 lines in a chart, which crossed each other probably once in 6 mnths and each crossover yielded 600-700 pips atleast 80% of the time that it happened?

easy to trade or difficult?
Hi Karthik
After long time you are back....
Waiting for the answer???????


Revards
Velli

ns_karthik Apr 10, 2012 2:27am | Post# 4

Hi Karthik
After long time you are back....
Waiting for the answer???????


Revards
Velli
hii...yes long time indeed...while waiting for the answer, u can think abt it and try to answer it yourself....

Add Apr 10, 2012 2:38am | Post# 5

ok, first a question....then, later on, a chart...

how easy or difficult would it be to trade if we had 2 lines in a chart, which crossed each other probably once in 6 mnths and each crossover yielded 600-700 pips atleast 80% of the time that it happened?

easy to trade or difficult?
Hi ns-karthik my answer would be easy if you had the patience to wait.

ns_karthik Apr 10, 2012 2:42am | Post# 6

Hi ns-karthik my answer would be easy if you had the patience to wait.
exactly...and thats the key isnt it...patience, discipline....everyone wants to trade well, so why dont people learn patience and discipline when it is plain for all to see that it is easy to trade well if only they had it?

btw, i cant reply to all posts frequently...as everyone, i have other things to take care of...so pls bear with me./...

andri66 Apr 10, 2012 2:46am | Post# 7

Easy --> if you trading for fun only ( one hour trading time/week)
Difficult --> if you're a full time trader..

sasavisnic67 Apr 10, 2012 5:24am | Post# 8

Han ji karthik,
It would depend on how big are the rest 20 % of loosers. I would see it as function of R and R (not Rock and Roll) :-)
BR
Sasa

ok, first a question....then, later on, a chart...

how easy or difficult would it be to trade if we had 2 lines in a chart, which crossed each other probably once in 6 mnths and each crossover yielded 600-700 pips atleast 80% of the time that it happened?

easy to trade or difficult?

fxtrader2k7 Apr 10, 2012 5:44am | Post# 9

ok, first a question....then, later on, a chart...

how easy or difficult would it be to trade if we had 2 lines in a chart, which crossed each other probably once in 6 mnths and each crossover yielded 600-700 pips atleast 80% of the time that it happened?

easy to trade or difficult?
My answer would be similar to @add...easy if you have the patience. I would guess we are probably looking at 2 MA cross-over on daily or higher time-frame. Well have to handle 200+ pip DD, so MM is important. Maybe scaling in your entry and a single TP determine by a trailing SL.

Looking forward to the unveiling.

Cheers.

ns_karthik Apr 10, 2012 8:17am | Post# 10

1 Attachment(s)
My answer would be similar to @add...easy if you have the patience. I would guess we are probably looking at 2 MA cross-over on daily or higher time-frame. Well have to handle 200+ pip DD, so MM is important. Maybe scaling in your entry and a single TP determine by a trailing SL.

Looking forward to the unveiling.

Cheers.
u hit the nail on the head...heres the chart...the lines are 50 sma and 100 sma on daily TF...u can set it up urself on ur charts...so easy...no to frame a good strategy and trade it....
Click to Enlarge

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ns_karthik Apr 10, 2012 11:22pm | Post# 11

we all are blind as a bat...the crossover shown yesterday indicates an uptrend...but that is not going to guarantee anything at all....no one in trading can predict what is going to happen next...if someone says that he can, he is lying....we all are blind and we navigate using our senses...we have had a crossover, we have indications of an uptrend but price has simply been ranging and doing nothing else....so how do we manage these indications? thats the challenge...

mfoste1 Apr 11, 2012 1:51am | Post# 12

im backtesting this strategy right now

ns_karthik Apr 11, 2012 1:53am | Post# 13

sure u can do that but there is not much use in doing that...we are not going to trade cross overs alone....we are not going to buy or sell on a cross....we are going to buy and sell with the trend at various points of time....in the direction of the trend....so what strategy are u going to backtest?

mfoste1 Apr 11, 2012 2:02am | Post# 14

50 and 100 SMA crosses on the daily. 300 pip stop, 700 pip target.

If you are an algorithmic trader, it is ideal to have multiple accounts for multiple strategies(due to FIFO regs if you are in the US). So this strategy could be run as a longer term strategy.

ns_karthik Apr 11, 2012 2:07am | Post# 15

50 and 100 SMA crosses on the daily. 300 pip stop, 700 pip target.

If you are an algorithmic trader, it is ideal to have multiple accounts for multiple strategies(due to FIFO regs if you are in the US). So this strategy could be run as a longer term strategy.
nice way to do it...there are many ways to skin a cat....i dont have such strict rules and i trade in a totally different way...but thats just me...as long as u know what u r doing, there are 100s of strategies to trade...

mfoste1 Apr 11, 2012 2:33am | Post# 16

2 Attachment(s)
Here are the stats and equity curve. Looks pretty good huh?

ran from dates 4/8/2007-4/8/2012, so 5 years of data over 14million ticks modeled. Starting balance on the account was 10k, trading 1 standard lot using 300 pip stop 700 pip target.
Click to Enlarge

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ns_karthik Apr 11, 2012 2:36am | Post# 17

Here are the stats and equity curve. Looks pretty good huh?

ran from dates 4/8/2007-4/8/2012, so 5 years of data over 14million ticks modeled.
thats nice....what software did u use?

mfoste1 Apr 11, 2012 2:40am | Post# 18

thats nice....what software did u use?

fxcm TSII strategy backtester

ns_karthik Apr 11, 2012 2:54am | Post# 19

fxcm TSII strategy backtester
what rules did u use?

mfoste1 Apr 11, 2012 2:57am | Post# 20

1 Attachment(s)
Here's the equity curve with a 400 pip stop and 1200 pip target. The strategy generates quite attractive returns for the longer term investor.
Click to Enlarge

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