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-   -   Hanover replies to PMs (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=346227)

Tomcat98 Dec 18, 2017 10:09pm | Post# 921

Hi David,
Check your PMs please.
Have a happy festive season and a prosperous 2018 you too.
Tomcat98

cuchuflito Dec 19, 2017 2:30am | Post# 922

{quote} Do banks or institutional traders have any edge against retailers except illegal (or limited legal) insider tips? Please read a old Bloomberg article: http://business.financialpost.com/ne...-markets-rates In addition, when we see their trading performance, it doesn't look they have strong edge: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...th#post8521845 Perhaps, information learned from Skenobi's...
But Banks are honest institutions that only care for the well being of their clients and society ....for sure...

hanover Dec 23, 2017 12:20am | Post# 923

@anybody_who's_ interested: here are many interviews (audio podcasts) with successful traders, including a few very famous names. You'll likely gain more wisdom by listening to some of these, than trying to find a holy grail system on trading forums.

hanover Dec 26, 2017 12:32pm | Post# 924

NC,

I was reviewing some posts on Boxing Day.

but QA with a large enough sample size should be able to discriminate the bias in the coin through statistical approaches (eg. Baysean approach).
Perhaps I'm being unduly pedantic, but I'm not sure that this is correct now. The coin is being selected by an overriding 50/50 process, effectively making the outcome a completely random walk, just as if a single unweighted coin was being tossed each time. Hence I don't believe that any kind of outcome-based analysis would be capable of detecting the bias. Or in other words, 'Adam' has an edge, but 'Bill' doesn't.

This apparently minor detail is probably not significant to a quant, who can continue to extract his profits in his own way. However it represents a breakthrough for me personally, given my own approach. Of course I'm not suggesting that FA is any kind of holy grail, as there are many drivers operating simultaneously and their interactions are extremely complex.

Anyway, compliments of the season to you, sir. Perhaps I was subconsciously seeking an excuse to wish you health, many pips, and much happiness in 2018.

Cheers
DL

Copernicus Dec 26, 2017 6:46pm | Post# 925

NC, I was reviewing some posts on Boxing Day. {quote} Perhaps I'm being unduly pedantic, but I'm not sure that this is correct now. The coin is being selected by an overriding 50/50 process, effectively making the outcome a completely random walk, just as if a single unweighted coin was being tossed each time. Hence I don't believe that any kind of outcome-based analysis would be capable of detecting the bias. Or in other words, 'Adam' has an edge, but 'Bill' doesn't. This apparently minor detail is probably not significant to a quant, who can continue...
Hi H

Yep mate....I had a better read of your post and given the 50:50 selection process....I reckon you are right.

Have a great New Year over the Tasman mate. Cheers C

hanover Dec 28, 2017 12:23am | Post# 926

I don't understand the choice of thread title, or why you're wasting your time on this system
IMO you're almost certainly right. I'll post here, where my reply can't be blacked out by the OP.

The limitations of KISS

I'm neither knowledgeable nor bold enough to state categorically that KISS ("keep it simple") can't possibly work. But I think it's very unlikely that a simple indicator-based EA will systematically deliver a guaranteed, low risk, consistent monthly profit, over several years of unknown, changing markets into the future.

Given the available technology, several million aspiring traders have already tested billions of trading strategies over many years. A system this obvious -- or something very similar -- would have been discovered a long time ago, and if profit was this easily attainable, virtually all retail traders would now be millionaires. Moreover, institutions would save themselves millions in salaries by replacing all of their highly paid veteran traders, expert analysts, PhD economists, etc with a simple EA.

Markets operate on a dynamic, willing-buyer-willing-seller, basis; price ultimately moves due to order volumes that are placed at each price level, and bulk-standard technical indicators don't measure this type of volume. To be robust, EAs need to be based around recurrent underlying market truisms.

Trading has always been an activity where an elite minority -- who have greater expertise, vastly more capital, immediate access to superior information, faster execution, lower dealing costs -- eventually drain the accounts of the hapless majority.

I'd be absolutely delighted to be proved wrong, because I too would love to have a simple EA effortlessly generate a passive, risk-free, exponentially growing income for myself.

Optimism is commendable, but ultimately it's reality that prevails.

Compliments of the season to everybody.

emmanuel7788 Dec 28, 2017 4:16pm | Post# 927

{quote} IMO you're almost certainly right. I'll post here, where my reply can't be blacked out by the OP. The limitations of KISS I'm neither knowledgeable nor bold enough to state categorically that KISS ("keep it simple") can't possibly work. But I think it's very unlikely that a simple indicator-based EA will systematically deliver a guaranteed, low risk, consistent monthly profit, over several years of unknown, changing...

This is my favourite post of this week.

Thank you hanover.

BenNeriah Dec 29, 2017 1:40pm | Post# 928

Could amyone here please help me find a MT4 script / EA that automatically
Reverses a position after stop loss has been triggered?

That would be much appreciated indeed.

Thanks in advance in wishing ya'll plenty of green PIPs in 2018!!

Regards,

Ben

simnz Dec 29, 2017 1:59pm | Post# 929

Hi David,

Happy New Year.

I have been on and off this forum since 2008.

Could you please advise me on how to go about finding a coder who can produce a simple automated system for currency options to trade on Interactive Brokers using their API.

Coders knowing C++, Java, Python, R, VB and Excel can do that. I would prefer to deal with a coder who understands FX trading and options.

Thanks.

hanover Dec 29, 2017 5:06pm | Post# 930

This is my favourite post of this week.
Thanks, but I merely post my opinions, right or wrong, just like everybody else.

Could amyone here please help me find a MT4 script / EA that automatically Reverses a position after stop loss has been triggered?
If your post is directed at me, then I'm sorry, I don't have such an EA. I assume that you're asking for an EA that checks to see whether any orders have triggered their SL within the last few seconds, and if they have, then open an opposite order. Such an EA would then have to keep track of which orders that it's actioned, to ensure that it doesn't perform the action on the same order twice. IMHO it would be easier for an EA to simply check for the presence of (for example) a horizontal line on the chart where your desired SL would be (which would also keep the SL hidden from your broker, if that is an advantage), and then when price reaches the line, it would close the order, open an opposite order, and delete the line.

I'm no longer doing any coding or troubleshooting for other traders, neither paid for nor free. You're welcome to post in this thread, but I expect that other members would be more likely to see your request if you either create a new thread, or maybe post in one of the 'I code your indicators for free' threads. Good luck, I hope that you can find an EA, or a programmer who is willing to code one.

Could you please advise me on how to go about finding a coder who can produce a simple automated system for currency options to trade on Interactive Brokers using their API. Coders knowing C++, Java, Python, R, VB and Excel can do that. I would prefer to deal with a coder who understands FX trading and options.
I'm sorry, but I've been out of corporate IT for more than 10 years now. I have an Australian developer friend who meets all of your requirements, but unfortunately he's currently busy with a major development project. My other IT contacts have no trading knowledge or experience, and hence I doubt that any of them have ever worked with Interactive Brokers API. Hence all I can suggest that you do (assuming that you're willing to pay for the work) is to search websites like upwork. Or possibly either contact IB and inquire if they have a developer network, or check their website to see if they have something like FF's 'Platform Tech' forum. Sorry I can't be more help.

hanover Jan 1, 2018 5:10am | Post# 931

2 Attachment(s)
Do you know of an Indicator that draws a vertical line on chart, the user input being a specified number of candles from the current (open) candle?
I'm replying here because I don't want to hijack the other thread.

Try the attached. I don't normally do programming requests, but this was a 5 minute job while I wait for my wife to finish a phone call.

NOTE: This indicator was written using MetaEditor/compiler build 509. If you want the .mq4 source to compile/run without errors, you'll need to do this first. Otherwise, download only the .ex4 file.
Candle-based vertical line.ex4
Candle-based vertical line.mq4

krismitt Jan 1, 2018 5:28am | Post# 932

{quote}I'm replying here because I don't want to hijack the other thread. Try the attached. I don't normally do programming requests, but this was a 5 minute job while I wait for my wife to finish a phone call. NOTE: This indicator was written using MetaEditor/compiler build 509. If you want the .mq4 source to compile/run without errors, you'll need to do this first. Otherwise, download only the .ex4 file. {file} {file}
Brilliant!. Thank you very much for this Hanover.

Much more than I expected

Kind Regards.

hanover Jan 3, 2018 3:51pm | Post# 933

I can't resist updating this post. I've been waiting ever-so-patiently for 12 months to get an update on my managed account.

Since inception, there's now been 38 profitable months out of 38!

The probability of attaining this by mere luck is more than 1 in 15 trillion. How so?
Let's assume that the probability of attaining a winning month is 50/50, actually a little less than that due to broker costs: say 45%. Then the probability of 38 consecutive successes is 1 in 1/(0.45^38) = 15,063,450,912,022. Those odds are equivalent to winning the Powerball lottery here in NZ (1 chance in 10 x 40!/(34!6!) = 38,383,800) every week for 392,500 consecutive weeks !!

To anybody who thinks that the returns are low, the manager ratchets down risk to keep drawdowns to the absolute minimum. Which is exactly why I chose him. And of course my starting capital was very small (I'm easily his smallest client).

Hopefully this will give the naysayers something to ponder. You guys keep on ranting "show me the money!" -- well, there it is. Even if most people fail, there are also some BIG success stories out there -- from those who have the necessary aptitude and dedication to make it work.

The markets are NOT random !!

Consistently profitable forex trading IS very possible !!

michisuperfr Jan 3, 2018 4:06pm | Post# 934

Since inception, there's now been 38 profitable months out of 38!
That's impressive...I think I haven't seen such consistency anywhere else so far. I've seen great track records over 3/5+ years but there were always some losing months here and there.

Dude for sure knows what he's doing

profitfarmer Jan 3, 2018 4:22pm | Post# 935

I can't resist updating this post. I've been waiting ever-so-patiently for 12 months to get an update on my managed account. Since inception, there's now been 38 profitable months out of 38! The probability of attaining this by mere luck is more than 1 in 15 trillion (calculation is explained in the link). That's the same odds as winning the Powerball lottery here in NZ (1 chance in 3,838,000) about 392,500 weeks in a row. To anybody who thinks that the returns are poor, the manager...
the other side is the truth, that probably approx 100-200 people in the whole world can show similar achievement (track record of 38 consecutive winning months)....
that is, out of the 7.6 billion?!
in that comparison, consider yourself the winner of the NZ lottery! a few times over, going with the odds!
hope your profits match the jackpot!

Pubic Enemy Jan 3, 2018 9:30pm | Post# 936

I have looked for that paperstone acc with 1 millions dollar on it...wow amazing...
And it seem its high leverage too...
for me, maybe I will not feeling safe to put 1 mill in my fx broker..

by the way..I always enjoy what Hanover wrote in this forum..well done Sir..

hanover Jan 17, 2018 4:09am | Post# 937

Some harsh reality.....

There's little point claiming that it's possible to be systematically profitable at forex, especially in threads like this one. You'll likely be accused of delusion, deliberate misrepresentation, or even that you're working or shilling for a 'scam' brokerage (LOL). The naysayers ask to see profitable performance history as evidence, but when it's provided, they say that it's faked, or demo, or the result of blind luck. Naysayers have their own obsessive agenda, fixed on proving failure; their minds are closed to the possibility that anybody can be smarter, or more diligent, or more successful than they've been, and now it seems that they selfishly want forex shut down so that nobody can outperform them. They post the same jaded message ("price is random, forex is a scam, a casino, a negative expectancy game that can't be beaten, ....") repeatedly; indeed, failure can be inwardly humiliating and obsessively soul-consuming, and misery loves company.

[If you doubt the above, here is genuine evidence of a consistently profitable trader (and of course if he can do it, then it's possible for others to emulate him). But now observe any naysayer response; I'm anticipating the usual kind of 'straw man' excuse or ad hominem argument......]

I expect that part of the problem is the low barrier to entry ($100 starting capital, and an internet connection), and the false expectation of what is required. Newcomers want to make a life-changing amount overnight, and easily, with minimal risk, cost, expertise and effort. They want to run a plug'n'play EA, or slap a couple of indicators onto a free charting package like MT4, and sit back and watch the money roll in, just like their spreadsheet tells them that X pips per day compounded equates to X00% per year. In marked contrast, the folk who make the big money at this game have spent many years becoming expert; they're willing to spend money on mentorship, institutional grade information, superior charting and execution, and if necessary, a performance coach; and many hours every day researching and honing complementary strategies, poring over economic reports, marking up levels on multiple chart timeframes, patiently waiting for the best setups, keeping meticulous journals, critically and honestly evaluating their own performance as a path toward constant self-improvement, finding solutions to technical and logistical problems, and planning ahead and adapting as market conditions change. They understand the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches in different market conditions. Their total immersion and passion is not in the money, but in mastering the process of trading. They've become expert at managing different types of risk. Perhaps, most importantly, they've been willing to put their own preconceived, wished-for notions and approaches aside, and instead focus exclusively on whatever it takes to succeed, whatever is realistically attainable. This is all part of the significant gulf that exists between professionals and amateurs.

The naysayers are probably right about a few things. People with lazy, unrealistic or unprofessional attitudes and expectations will almost certainly fail at forex. For many personality types, the nerve and stamina requirement, the amount of time and stress involved, and consequent demands on health and family, might well prove too severe. It's saddening and distressing that people are talking about suicide; take consolation from the fact that trading is no easy road, and requires a unique skillset, counterintuitive behavioral processes, and immense personal resolve; and many otherwise talented folk have likewise quit in despair. Nonetheless, the fact remains that it's possible to be successful -- if you want more examples, listen to some of these podcasts -- but it's a waste of time trying to convince the closed-minded for whom no evidence will ever be good enough.
_________________________

[EDIT] Here is Ed Seykota's challenging observation: "Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money".

Rafaz1 Jan 17, 2018 4:24am | Post# 938

Dear Hanover,

Please message me directly thanks

Zaf

hanover Jan 17, 2018 4:51am | Post# 939

Please message me directly
Please see the 'Personal contact' note in post #1.

Redeflect Jan 17, 2018 7:13am | Post# 940

Some harsh reality..... There's little point claiming that it's possible to be systematically profitable at forex, especially in threads like this one. You'll likely be accused of delusion, deliberate misrepresentation, or even that you're working or shilling for a 'scam' brokerage (LOL). The naysayers ask to see profitable performance history as evidence, but when it's provided, they say that it's faked, or demo, or the result of blind luck. Naysayers have their own obsessive agenda,...
The best set of podcasts I had ever found. The wealth of information and insight new traders can receive from them is priceless. I'm glad you're a fan as well.


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