Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Interactive Trading (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=137)
-   -   USD/CHF (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=33990)

ra300z Jun 13, 2007 6:15pm | Post# 1

USD/CHF
 
I don't see much discussion of USDCHF very often...

According to the calendar, there is to be an interest rate statement in 9.5 hours. The prediction is that the rate will go up by a quarter percent.

I see that USDCHF has been on a tear lately going up about 280 pips since June 6th. That leads me to believe that the market thinks they won't increase interest rates. Otherwise the price would go down since increasing interest rates make a currency more valuable, thus USDCHF should be going down.

Any ideas on if they will go increase rates?

treberk Jun 13, 2007 6:44pm | Post# 2

I don't see much discussion of USDCHF very often...

Any ideas on if they will go increase rates?
Personally, I think that usdchf should be relegated from the perception that it is one of the world's 4 major currencies.

For example, there are more trade announcments here on FF about the Australian Dollar than the Swiss Franc. Even now, the Australian Dollar is stronger than the Swiss Franc.

It seems that the Swiss Fanc is more affected by what the Euro does and carry traders than any of its own economic activities.


Even if the Swiss do infact hike interest rates it may be a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" just like it was this month when the ECB raised interest rates.

ra300z Jun 13, 2007 8:40pm | Post# 3

This could be a good trade. If there is no interest rate change, then there will be a big selloff. If there is an interest rate change, then it's already priced in.

As for USDCHF still being a major, I think it's based on volume. I tried looking for a pie chart showing Forex volume. I could not find one.

I think the daily pip variance is still much higher with CHF. Based on Alpari data, this is what I calculated. The numbers represent the average high-low, aka pip variance on the daily.
AUDUSD 66.4
EURUSD 95.9
GBPUSD 137.3
USDCAD 90.4
USDCHF 107.9
USDJPY 91.7

treberk Jun 13, 2007 8:52pm | Post# 4

This could be a good trade. If there is no interest rate change, then there will be a big selloff. If there is an interest rate change, then it's already priced in.

As for USDCHF still being a major, I think it's based on volume. I tried looking for a pie chart showing Forex volume. I could not find one.

I think the daily pip variance is still much higher with CHF. Based on Alpari data, this is what I calculated. The numbers represent the average high-low, aka pip variance on the daily.
AUDUSD 66.4
EURUSD 95.9
GBPUSD 137.3
USDCAD 90.4
USDCHF 107.9
USDJPY 91.7
I believe that you are not calculating this correctly.

If you quote USDCHF as CHFUSD (like how most of the majors are quoted against the US Dollar including AUD) you may find that the high-low, aka pip variance on the daily is infact lower.

You also have to take into account the pip value of USDCHF which is around 19.75% lower than the pip value of AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and even NZDUSD.

goodthings Jun 16, 2007 6:21am | Post# 5

1 Attachment(s)
Price Action For UsdChf
Name:  usdchf.gif
Views: 62198
Size:  20 KB

skfx Jun 16, 2007 9:19am | Post# 6

1 Attachment(s)
Nice chart goodthings.

Here is a 4hr chart of the usdchf indicating potential support zone below price.

Click to Enlarge

Name: usdchf4hr.jpg
Size: 39 KB

Cheers
SK

mv6 Jun 17, 2007 7:54am | Post# 7

1 Attachment(s)
My opinion
Click to Enlarge

Name: 1.jpg
Size: 46 KB

dunningduke Jun 17, 2007 11:22am | Post# 8

Personally, I think that usdchf should be relegated from the perception that it is one of the world's 4 major currencies.

For example, there are more trade announcments here on FF about the Australian Dollar than the Swiss Franc. Even now, the Australian Dollar is stronger than the Swiss Franc.

It seems that the Swiss Fanc is more affected by what the Euro does and carry traders than any of its own economic activities.


Even if the Swiss do infact hike interest rates it may be a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" just like it was this month when the ECB raised interest rates.
WOW. That was a funny post. where did you get your smarts from?

treberk Jun 18, 2007 11:13am | Post# 9

WOW. That was a funny post. where did you get your smarts from?
Sorry, what are "smarts"?

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 9:59pm | Post# 10

1 Attachment(s)
These are statitical probabilities of how the usdchf retraces to weekly fib levels.
Name:  usdchf.gif
Views: 61502
Size:  20 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:01pm | Post# 11

1 Attachment(s)
A couple of weeks ago the UsdChf made a big run and did not retrace to any of the weekly fib levels that week are the week after. This was the first time it had not retraced to atleast the 23.6 fib level.
Name:  usdchf 1.gif
Views: 61193
Size:  21 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:02pm | Post# 12

1 Attachment(s)
UsdChf daily range of motion (ROM)
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Daily  Range.jpg
Size: 23 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:04pm | Post# 13

1 Attachment(s)
UsdChf (DAR) daily average range
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Daily  Range Average.jpg
Size: 19 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:06pm | Post# 14

1 Attachment(s)
The pink line is the DAR for the year and yellow line is the DAR for the past 20 days. The blue line shows the daily (ROM) for the past 20 days.
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Daily  Chart.jpg
Size: 22 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:08pm | Post# 15

1 Attachment(s)
UsdChf (WAR) Weekly average range
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Weekly Range Average.jpg
Size: 21 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:10pm | Post# 16

1 Attachment(s)
The pink line shows the yearly (WAR) and the blue line shows the weekly (ROM) for the year.

The 150 pip (WAR) is where it seems to hit most of the time.
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Weekly Range Chart.jpg
Size: 17 KB

DigitalFX Jun 20, 2007 9:14am | Post# 17

Currently Short on USD/CHF since it moved past the 1st lower pivot at 1.2387. It's now hanging around 1.2365 with appears to be the fib on GoodThings Chart from noon today. Any thoughts? Here's hoping it is heading south.

shadeslay Jun 20, 2007 1:10pm | Post# 18

I have a short from 390, this is one of the ones I'm testing for learning longer term trades. Which is still new to me, anything much over a day. Looks pretty good to me so far, my first area of interest is in the 331 range to determine if it still has momentum after that it's the 280 range. My stop is pretty small just above 400 so I can't lose much if I'm wrong. The last few have retraced to the 50% mark, but there's some good support from previous highs in the 330 area, so that's my likely target.

Plutonite Jun 20, 2007 1:29pm | Post# 19

Currently Short on USD/CHF since it moved past the 1st lower pivot at 1.2387. It's now hanging around 1.2365 with appears to be the fib on GoodThings Chart from noon today. Any thoughts? Here's hoping it is heading south.
USDCHF is on a moderate upward trend in the short and medium term, and has hit fibos and 2 standard devs from the commonly used 50 mean. I am long with a 20 pip SL. TP at 1.2463.

Good luck.

DigitalFX Jun 21, 2007 2:42am | Post# 20

CHF trade balance came out shortly ago with good numbers of
1.26B to the positive. Interest rates are up and good possibility of increases in the near future. Does anyone know why it shouldn't be picking up value against against the dollar?

VEC Jun 21, 2007 2:51am | Post# 21

CHF trade balance came out shortly ago with good numbers of
1.26B to the positive. Interest rates are up and good possibility of increases in the near future. Does anyone know why it shouldn't be picking up value against against the dollar?
its a bastard thing called carrytrade.

shadeslay Jun 21, 2007 2:52am | Post# 22

Not to sure, maybe not enough interest in chf to have a big impact.

Have it touching the trend line down now so it should likely come back down, if not then the down trend is broken and I'm gone from my trade.

VEC Jun 21, 2007 2:56am | Post# 23

1 Attachment(s)
whats your oppinion on a long from somewhere around 1.2285-1.2300, if it goes there?
Click to Enlarge

Name: chf.jpg
Size: 60 KB

shadeslay Jun 21, 2007 3:09am | Post# 24

whats your oppinion on a long from somewhere around 1.2285-1.2300, if it goes there?
Generally avoid predictions, but if it makes it there it would be a good place to look for a long. Doesn't look like it will make it there though, fundamentals good chf news so chf goes down value.

Ah nm, I see now said the blind man, e/u is coming down so the dollar is gaining value.

VEC Jun 21, 2007 3:13am | Post# 25

im far from shure its goin down their either, i just dont have the guts to go long at current level

shadeslay Jun 21, 2007 3:21am | Post# 26

aye waiting for either a clear break or bounce off the eur/usd trend line. Most of the eur and usd moved across the board signaling eur/usd was the motivator. And it's currently touching the upward trend line from a few weeks back.

DigitalFX Jun 21, 2007 3:25am | Post# 27

I know I am new to this game and just about the time I think I have a few factors figured out I get blown out of my seat.
Can't figure out why the Krona just jumped backwards 30 pips to the dollar after a good Trade balance report and a hawkish Riksbank report and a Elliot wave prediction that it should be heading south.
Back to the books!!!

VEC Jun 21, 2007 3:34am | Post# 28

aye waiting for either a clear break or bounce off the eur/usd trend line. Most of the eur and usd moved across the board signaling eur/usd was the motivator. And it's currently touching the upward trend line from a few weeks back.
weŽll se what happens there. i think we might get a bit sideway action in eur/usd between perhaps 35 and 32+. which would leave carrytraders plenty of room to sell chf for higher yielders.

VEC Jun 21, 2007 3:35am | Post# 29

swedish, are you? digitalfx

shadeslay Jun 21, 2007 3:37am | Post# 30

I know I am new to this game and just about the time I think I have a few factors figured out I get blown out of my seat.
Can't figure out why the Krona just jumped backwards 30 pips to the dollar after a good Trade balance report and a hawkish Riksbank report and a Elliot wave prediction that it should be heading south.
Back to the books!!!

Currency correlation, the bigger currencies like eur/usd, gbp/usd and the yen (carry trades) can have an impact on numerous other currencies. It's often hard to see most times unless they take quick sharp moves. But if you had a chart of eur/usd and usd/chf (or multiple charts) open when the quick moves take place you would see usd/chf and a few others move nearly in unison, if but a few seconds slower. I have 16 up right now so it's it's pretty easy to spot, when 1/2 of them all move at once.

Or if you chart service allows you to have more then one currency up on a chart a time you might get an even better picture. They do break away a bit after awhile, but the quick moves generally make quite a few currencies move.

That being said, sometimes they do move in the opposite direction of news, I still haven't figured that one out myself.

DigitalFX Jun 21, 2007 3:41am | Post# 31

swedish, are you? digitalfx
I wouldn't know a swede if I was looking at em. I'm just a down under guy trying to learn how all this works. Someone needs to supply the money for the rest of you to win!!

DigitalFX Jun 21, 2007 3:55am | Post# 32

Currency correlation, the bigger currencies like eur/usd, gbp/usd and the yen (carry trades) can have an impact on numerous other currencies. It's often hard to see most times unless they take quick sharp moves. But if you had a chart of eur/usd and usd/chf (or multiple charts) open when the quick moves take place you would see usd/chf and a few others move nearly in unison, if but a few seconds slower. I have 16 up right now so it's it's pretty easy to spot, when 1/2 of them all move at once.

Or if you chart service allows you to have more then one currency up on a chart a time you might get an even better picture. They do break away a bit after awhile, but the quick moves generally make quite a few currencies move.

That being said, sometimes they do move in the opposite direction of news, I still haven't figured that one out myself.
Thanks, That helps.

VEC Jun 21, 2007 4:02am | Post# 33

I wouldn't know a swede if I was looking at em. I'm just a down under guy trying to learn how all this works. Someone needs to supply the money for the rest of you to win!!
stay in there! you will figure it out, until then trade, if not on demo, very very small. im just beginning to get a hang of this myself actually

shadeslay Jun 21, 2007 4:04am | Post# 34

It gets even trickier with some pairs, for example this time eur/usd moved down, which caused aud/usd to move down, which caused aud/jpy to move down. Likely why when you first start out they say to stick with one of the major pairs like eur/usd. You have less pairs to watch to make sure it doesn't effect your trade.

DigitalFX Jun 21, 2007 4:19am | Post# 35

It gets even trickier with some pairs, for example this time eur/usd moved down, which caused aud/usd to move down, which caused aud/jpy to move down. Likely why when you first start out they say to stick with one of the major pairs like eur/usd. You have less pairs to watch to make sure it doesn't effect your trade.
That could easily be the best tip I have had yet. I've learned another hard lesson today. I'm holding a short at 1.2390 with a stop at 1.2420. All the indicators look right! How does this thing know exactly where my stops are???

If it's true that you become a pro after making all the mistakes possible so that you know can avoid them, I'm one more mishap towards my goal.
Cheers

shadeslay Jun 21, 2007 4:21am | Post# 36

How does this thing know exactly where my stops are???
I'm not sure how, but it knows.

Plutonite Jun 21, 2007 5:05am | Post# 37

USDCHF is on a moderate upward trend in the short and medium term, and has hit fibos and 2 standard devs from the commonly used 50 mean. I am long with a 20 pip SL. TP at 1.2463.

Good luck.
Some resistance being met now, up 40 somthing pips and thinking of letting it go, but the set up is very decent. The bounce down was off a fibo, next 4 hours price action should determine whether to stay long as planned or to be conservative and live with the 40-50 pips.

shadeslay Jun 22, 2007 10:40am | Post# 38

Closing on the 61.8% re-tracement now, starting to form decent price action off the 300 area, likely to tp and run. If it wasn't so close to the weekend I would likely look for a long, but maybe sunday I'll check it out again.

DigitalFX Jun 22, 2007 11:00pm | Post# 39

Sure is good to know that my observations were not completely silly. currently sitting at 1.2291 with a good possibility of CHF gaining even more ground.

I thought this pair was should to be heading south. It was just a day later than I thought it would. It's just a shame that I got cold feet and exited my short before the payoff with all the talk of carry trades. What you don't know will always hurt you.
What I've learned this week is that when projections look sensible hang on to it until something invalidates the findings. Eventually common sense will make cents.
Live and learn!!!

BillGatesJordan Jun 23, 2007 7:55am | Post# 40

Forcast CHF
 
1 Attachment(s)
Dear All

I believe the hereunder cenario is more likely, we will visit the 1.2235 area before we continue the uper trend (Any comments???) to 1.4000
Click to Enlarge

Name: chf1.jpg
Size: 94 KB


© Forex Factory