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ra300z Jun 13, 2007 6:15pm | Post# 1

USD/CHF
 
I don't see much discussion of USDCHF very often...

According to the calendar, there is to be an interest rate statement in 9.5 hours. The prediction is that the rate will go up by a quarter percent.

I see that USDCHF has been on a tear lately going up about 280 pips since June 6th. That leads me to believe that the market thinks they won't increase interest rates. Otherwise the price would go down since increasing interest rates make a currency more valuable, thus USDCHF should be going down.

Any ideas on if they will go increase rates?

treberk Jun 13, 2007 6:44pm | Post# 2

I don't see much discussion of USDCHF very often...

Any ideas on if they will go increase rates?
Personally, I think that usdchf should be relegated from the perception that it is one of the world's 4 major currencies.

For example, there are more trade announcments here on FF about the Australian Dollar than the Swiss Franc. Even now, the Australian Dollar is stronger than the Swiss Franc.

It seems that the Swiss Fanc is more affected by what the Euro does and carry traders than any of its own economic activities.


Even if the Swiss do infact hike interest rates it may be a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" just like it was this month when the ECB raised interest rates.

ra300z Jun 13, 2007 8:40pm | Post# 3

This could be a good trade. If there is no interest rate change, then there will be a big selloff. If there is an interest rate change, then it's already priced in.

As for USDCHF still being a major, I think it's based on volume. I tried looking for a pie chart showing Forex volume. I could not find one.

I think the daily pip variance is still much higher with CHF. Based on Alpari data, this is what I calculated. The numbers represent the average high-low, aka pip variance on the daily.
AUDUSD 66.4
EURUSD 95.9
GBPUSD 137.3
USDCAD 90.4
USDCHF 107.9
USDJPY 91.7

treberk Jun 13, 2007 8:52pm | Post# 4

This could be a good trade. If there is no interest rate change, then there will be a big selloff. If there is an interest rate change, then it's already priced in.

As for USDCHF still being a major, I think it's based on volume. I tried looking for a pie chart showing Forex volume. I could not find one.

I think the daily pip variance is still much higher with CHF. Based on Alpari data, this is what I calculated. The numbers represent the average high-low, aka pip variance on the daily.
AUDUSD 66.4
EURUSD 95.9
GBPUSD 137.3
USDCAD 90.4
USDCHF 107.9
USDJPY 91.7
I believe that you are not calculating this correctly.

If you quote USDCHF as CHFUSD (like how most of the majors are quoted against the US Dollar including AUD) you may find that the high-low, aka pip variance on the daily is infact lower.

You also have to take into account the pip value of USDCHF which is around 19.75% lower than the pip value of AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and even NZDUSD.

goodthings Jun 16, 2007 6:21am | Post# 5

1 Attachment(s)
Price Action For UsdChf
Name:  usdchf.gif
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skfx Jun 16, 2007 9:19am | Post# 6

1 Attachment(s)
Nice chart goodthings.

Here is a 4hr chart of the usdchf indicating potential support zone below price.

Click to Enlarge

Name: usdchf4hr.jpg
Size: 39 KB

Cheers
SK

mv6 Jun 17, 2007 7:54am | Post# 7

1 Attachment(s)
My opinion
Click to Enlarge

Name: 1.jpg
Size: 46 KB

dunningduke Jun 17, 2007 11:22am | Post# 8

Personally, I think that usdchf should be relegated from the perception that it is one of the world's 4 major currencies.

For example, there are more trade announcments here on FF about the Australian Dollar than the Swiss Franc. Even now, the Australian Dollar is stronger than the Swiss Franc.

It seems that the Swiss Fanc is more affected by what the Euro does and carry traders than any of its own economic activities.


Even if the Swiss do infact hike interest rates it may be a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" just like it was this month when the ECB raised interest rates.
WOW. That was a funny post. where did you get your smarts from?

treberk Jun 18, 2007 11:13am | Post# 9

WOW. That was a funny post. where did you get your smarts from?
Sorry, what are "smarts"?

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 9:59pm | Post# 10

1 Attachment(s)
These are statitical probabilities of how the usdchf retraces to weekly fib levels.
Name:  usdchf.gif
Views: 61514
Size:  20 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:01pm | Post# 11

1 Attachment(s)
A couple of weeks ago the UsdChf made a big run and did not retrace to any of the weekly fib levels that week are the week after. This was the first time it had not retraced to atleast the 23.6 fib level.
Name:  usdchf 1.gif
Views: 61206
Size:  21 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:02pm | Post# 12

1 Attachment(s)
UsdChf daily range of motion (ROM)
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Daily  Range.jpg
Size: 23 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:04pm | Post# 13

1 Attachment(s)
UsdChf (DAR) daily average range
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Daily  Range Average.jpg
Size: 19 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:06pm | Post# 14

1 Attachment(s)
The pink line is the DAR for the year and yellow line is the DAR for the past 20 days. The blue line shows the daily (ROM) for the past 20 days.
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Daily  Chart.jpg
Size: 22 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:08pm | Post# 15

1 Attachment(s)
UsdChf (WAR) Weekly average range
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Weekly Range Average.jpg
Size: 21 KB

goodthings Jun 19, 2007 10:10pm | Post# 16

1 Attachment(s)
The pink line shows the yearly (WAR) and the blue line shows the weekly (ROM) for the year.

The 150 pip (WAR) is where it seems to hit most of the time.
Click to Enlarge

Name: UsdChf Weekly Range Chart.jpg
Size: 17 KB

DigitalFX Jun 20, 2007 9:14am | Post# 17

Currently Short on USD/CHF since it moved past the 1st lower pivot at 1.2387. It's now hanging around 1.2365 with appears to be the fib on GoodThings Chart from noon today. Any thoughts? Here's hoping it is heading south.

shadeslay Jun 20, 2007 1:10pm | Post# 18

I have a short from 390, this is one of the ones I'm testing for learning longer term trades. Which is still new to me, anything much over a day. Looks pretty good to me so far, my first area of interest is in the 331 range to determine if it still has momentum after that it's the 280 range. My stop is pretty small just above 400 so I can't lose much if I'm wrong. The last few have retraced to the 50% mark, but there's some good support from previous highs in the 330 area, so that's my likely target.

Plutonite Jun 20, 2007 1:29pm | Post# 19

Currently Short on USD/CHF since it moved past the 1st lower pivot at 1.2387. It's now hanging around 1.2365 with appears to be the fib on GoodThings Chart from noon today. Any thoughts? Here's hoping it is heading south.
USDCHF is on a moderate upward trend in the short and medium term, and has hit fibos and 2 standard devs from the commonly used 50 mean. I am long with a 20 pip SL. TP at 1.2463.

Good luck.

DigitalFX Jun 21, 2007 2:42am | Post# 20

CHF trade balance came out shortly ago with good numbers of
1.26B to the positive. Interest rates are up and good possibility of increases in the near future. Does anyone know why it shouldn't be picking up value against against the dollar?


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