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BatmanXXL Feb 21, 2012 1:14pm | Post# 41

Hello Spyderman

Why is stop at 79.44 for U/J. Is that stop from H4 or D1 hindsight? On D1 on my chart is going through wick of yesterday..

spyderman Feb 21, 2012 1:29pm | Post# 42

Hello Spyderman

Why is stop at 79.44 for U/J. Is that stop from H4 or D1 hindsight? On D1 on my chart is going through wick of yesterday..
It was just below the low of the previous H4 at the time of entry. Of course H4's will vary from broker to broker so your's may show different. You'll have to adjust your entries accordingly, but over all it should balance out.

BatmanXXL Feb 21, 2012 2:17pm | Post# 43

I forget to ask Spyder one more thing. On your U/J picture attachment, few posts back I saw on Daily chart that there was almost 3 red candles which according to our strategy you should to diversify 3 times(by halfing opened positions). Do you ignore that rule sometimes or you did as that?
However, nice stacking...and all best to you...

spyderman Feb 21, 2012 2:27pm | Post# 44

1 Attachment(s)
I forget to ask Spyder one more thing. On your U/J picture attachment, few posts back I saw on Daily chart that there was almost 3 red candles which according to our strategy you should to diversify 3 times(by halfing opened positions). Do you ignore that rule sometimes or you did as that?
However, nice stacking...and all best to you...

Batman,

Those charts are on the H4. All our reads for starting a series and exiting will come off the Daily. Here's the daily for the past few weeks. No daily bars closing below a previous day's open so we haven't closed any yet.
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spyderman Feb 21, 2012 11:08pm | Post# 45

1 Attachment(s)
Stop on U/J moved to BE + 3 pips at 79.70
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Name: uj initial.jpg
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spyderman Feb 22, 2012 7:26am | Post# 46

New entry
 
1 Attachment(s)
We have a new entry this morning (for me ) on the U/J. On the H4 I've entered at about 50% fib (80.26) with a stop below the previous H4 low at 79.98. I went a few pips lower with my stop on this one to get under the 80.00. That should provide some additional support.

You'll notice too in the chart that had we been awake we would have had a nice 50% entry on the previous bar that would be in profit now.
Click to Enlarge

Name: uj initial.jpg
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spyderman Feb 23, 2012 10:11am | Post# 47

We have a new entry this morning (for me ) on the U/J. On the H4 I've entered at about 50% fib (80.26) with a stop below the previous H4 low at 79.98. I went a few pips lower with my stop on this one to get under the 80.00. That should provide some additional support.

You'll notice too in the chart that had we been awake we would have had a nice 50% entry on the previous bar that would be in profit now.
Our entry from yesterday has retraced to the Daily 50% fib and now is moving back up. It didn't hit our H4 stop, so that's good. Let's hope it continues to climb now that it tested and bounced off that fib.

spyderman Feb 23, 2012 4:21pm | Post# 48

Stopped out
 
We just had our stop hit on the U/J. We'll have to wait for another entry.

BatmanXXL Feb 23, 2012 4:21pm | Post# 49

Hello Spider...From when did you start wit this strategy? From February?

Can you please once more quickly repeat strategy...Is it correct like this??

1. We look for FB on D1 (for first entry)
2. Then we confirm it with 5/10 ema cross (at the day end)
3. Then we enter immediately at open of new daily candle (after cross 5/10)
4. SL is under previous daily candle wick (for buy), and we move to BE after it goes our way for about 25pips
5. Than...we starting with stacking at H4 by using Joe Buddas(only H4 or we still use D1?). Stacking is only performed by Buy Limit pending orders at 50% of previous candle, with SL a bit under wick of previous bar (for buys)
6. Again we move SL to BE after about 25pips.
7. Exit of half positions is when we get first opposite candle on D1 which is closed under open of previous candle. (We close half positions, and if is next day again against us we close another half, and so on)
8. If trend continues we continue to stack by 50%Fib only on H4

I am sure I forget something or something is wrong .. Please correct me...

You have really nice trades...I see your millipede started to stretching its legs .

spyderman Feb 23, 2012 5:09pm | Post# 50

Hello Spider...From when did you start wit this strategy? From February?

Can you please once more quickly repeat strategy...Is it correct like this??

1. We look for FB on D1 (for first entry)
2. Then we confirm it with 5/10 ema cross (at the day end)
3. Then we enter immediately at open of new daily candle (after cross 5/10)
4. SL is under previous daily candle wick (for buy), and we move to BE after it goes our way for about 25pips
5. Than...we starting with stacking at H4 by using Joe Buddas(only H4 or we still use D1?). Stacking is only performed...
Batman,

You've get the gist of it...just a couple of adjustments.

2. Then we confirm it with 5/10 ema cross (at the day end)
3. Then we enter immediately at open of new daily candle (after cross 5/10)
Typically the cross shows at the start of a daily candle. There are times when price action brings a cross mid day. Depending on how it looks I will enter at that point with the stop based on the previous bar.

5. Than...we starting with stacking at H4 by using Joe Buddas(only H4 or we still use D1?). Stacking is only performed by Buy Limit pending orders at 50% of previous candle, with SL a bit under wick of previous bar (for buys).
I also use the D1 for stacking. I would use a buy limit if price is above the 50%. If price is below the 50 but close then I would enter at market for a bargain price. If price is so low that it would be too close to the stop loss then I would place a buy stop at the 50.

Review the PDF in post 1 as I follow that pretty close. You'll always need to tweak any strategy to meet your own needs and trading style/schedule.


spyderman Feb 23, 2012 6:10pm | Post# 51

New stop order
 
I'm placing a new stop order at the beginning of the daily at the 50% fib. As price is below, I'm using a stop which will help signify price is continuing upward. Buy stop is at 80.08 with a s/l at 79.78

spyderman Feb 23, 2012 10:30pm | Post# 52

I'm placing a new stop order at the beginning of the daily at the 50% fib. As price is below, I'm using a stop which will help signify price is continuing upward. Buy stop is at 80.08 with a s/l at 79.78
Buy stop has been hit and we're back in the trade.

spyderman Feb 23, 2012 11:13pm | Post# 53

2 Attachment(s)
Just for a little fun, I've zoomed out to the monthly on the U/J.
Could this be the reversal of a 4 year downtrend. Let's hope so.

But whichever...we'll follow the market.
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Name: uj monthly.gif
Size: 32 KB

spyderman Feb 23, 2012 11:18pm | Post# 54

Gotta hit the sack...I've moved the stop on U/J to BE +2.

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 7:26am | Post# 55

New entry
 
1 Attachment(s)
Good morning all. I've placed a new entry this morning on the U/J. I caught it just a little late as it actually hit the 50 fib while I was asleep, but I think it's a good entry. I entered at 80.545 with my stop at 80.31.
Click to Enlarge

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rgrace Feb 24, 2012 7:38am | Post# 56

Good to see some are still trading the millipede, I have recently started, this week actually. Looking at my positions they have been very similar to your entries, I currently have 2 long USD/JPY positions. Been adding slowly only a couple attempts a day. Also have started the 3x20 exercise as outlined in Graeme's thread, looking forward to the "related discoveries". Now back to your thread to read, as I have no clue how you are entering just find it odd that my two survivors are almost exactly the same as yours heh.

EDIT: Interesting, I see how you are entering now, my entry method is different. I do not take FB's into account at all, or MA's for that matter. Still is interesting that my entries and yours are almost exactly the same. Have you ever ran the numbers to see what the result would be if you instead held the positions, like for instance, the first daily candle closes below previous daily candle. Sell the last couple positions, enough to recover any drawdown and add a small realized profit, hold the rest?

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 8:12am | Post# 57

Welcome rgrace. You should find the PDF in post 1 a good read, if you haven't already.

rgrace Feb 24, 2012 8:16am | Post# 58

Welcome rgrace. You should find the PDF in post 1 a good read, if you haven't already.

I went back and read the thread, will read the pdf as well when I get a chance. This is a very interesting method, and would work with anything not just a flying buddha. Hammer on daily, engulfing bar, bounce off of support, the key it appears is not so much in the initial setup but the stacking at every .50 fib on 4h and daily.

EDIT: Nice PDF, interesting way to trade.

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 8:34am | Post# 59

I went back and read the thread, will read the pdf as well when I get a chance. This is a very interesting method, and would work with anything not just a flying buddha. Hammer on daily, engulfing bar, bounce off of support, the key it appears is not so much in the initial setup but the stacking at every .50 fib on 4h and daily.

Absolutely. And Graeme mentions that in the PDF. The FB is just another indicator as to what might happen next. Like you say, no matter how we get on the horse, we just want to ride it all the way.

One good run (like the U/J right now hopefully ) will take care of all the false entries and then some.

maaj Feb 24, 2012 9:28am | Post# 60

Absolutely. And Graeme mentions that in the PDF. The FB is just another indicator as to what might happen next. Like you say, no matter how we get on the horse, we just want to ride it all the way.

One good run (like the U/J right now hopefully ) will take care of all the false entries and then some.

Good job guys.

For this week, my GB is doing well for me. Started with 4hr FB, then added one more stack. I may close one the positions, if 1h or 4hr UP candle closes below the open price of previous Down candle.

rgrace Feb 24, 2012 9:29am | Post# 61

Absolutely. And Graeme mentions that in the PDF. The FB is just another indicator as to what might happen next. Like you say, no matter how we get on the horse, we just want to ride it all the way.

One good run (like the U/J right now hopefully ) will take care of all the false entries and then some.

Looks like GBP/USD is setting up right now as well, has been ranging a while, looks like we will get a cross today if it closes anywhere near the top, would you trade a pair like this in a range?

I mean it eventually has to break out right?

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 9:37am | Post# 62

Looks like GBP/USD is setting up right now as well, has been ranging a while, looks like we will get a cross today if it closes anywhere near the top, would you trade a pair like this in a range?

I mean it eventually has to break out right?
I've actually been in and out of the G/U in both directions the last couple of weeks. Been stopped out of all my trades, some at BE some at small loss.

I have a FB to the up side on yesterday's candle and a cross already today. I'm debating pulling the trigger. Since there's been so much price movement upwards today, I may use today's low as my stop if I enter.

rgrace Feb 24, 2012 9:42am | Post# 63

I've actually been in and out of the G/U in both directions the last couple of weeks. Been stopped out of all my trades, some at BE some at small loss.

I have a FB to the up side on yesterday's candle and a cross already today. I'm debating pulling the trigger. Since there's been so much price movement upwards today, I may use today's low as my stop if I enter.
It has crossed, I was under the impression you waited for the close though?

BatmanXXL Feb 24, 2012 10:41am | Post# 64

Huuuh...Spyder you millipede is going to explode soon . It stretching legs like giraffe... My congratulations. Now you only need to rise lot size to 10 .
Hehe..just kidding..

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 2:24pm | Post# 65

It has crossed, I was under the impression you waited for the close though?
No I just look at price action.

Even though we're not tracking the G/U pair right now I did enter earlier and have moved my stop to BE +3. I'm up 39 pips right now.

Nice catch on that one rgrace.

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 2:30pm | Post# 66

Huuuh...Spyder you millipede is going to explode soon . It stretching legs like giraffe... My congratulations. Now you only need to rise lot size to 10 .
Hehe..just kidding..
Funny you should bring up lot size. I've been thinking how best to tweak that. Perhaps we'll discuss that this weekend when the markets are closed.

geoffrod Feb 24, 2012 3:11pm | Post# 67

lot size
 
Hi Spyderman,
you got my spiddie senses tingling with this.
fwiw,
i spoke to graeme about this very subject some time ago, and he urged me to think very seriously about uping my lot size too soon, its all great whist this are marching along like right now today, but might take more of a toll on the mental side of things when things turn a bit ugly.
i see to recall in his thread he talked about trading more pairs was myabe a better way to roll.
anyway this will be your descission, i just wanted to firstly say g'day and secondly say well done so far on your journal, i am enjoying watching you, and thirdly, just warn you on making a hasty descission, which i am sure you wont.
good luck sir.

cheers
geoff

Funny you should bring up lot size. I've been thinking how best to tweak that. Perhaps we'll discuss that this weekend when the markets are closed.

maaj Feb 24, 2012 3:28pm | Post# 68

Hi Spyderman,
you got my spiddie senses tingling with this.
fwiw,
i spoke to graeme about this very subject some time ago, and he urged me to think very seriously about uping my lot size too soon, its all great whist this are marching along like right now today, but might take more of a toll on the mental side of things when things turn a bit ugly.
i see to recall in his thread he talked about trading more pairs was myabe a better way to roll.
anyway this will be your descission, i just wanted to firstly say g'day and secondly say well done so...
I am completely agree with geoff. Graeme talked about lot size more than once on his thread.

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 3:46pm | Post# 69

Lot sizes
 
Okay, the markets are winding down for the week so let's wind up some discussion about lot sizes.

There are many schools of thought on how to do this in general and then we have to tweak it to the strategy we're employing. Many, if not most, employ some form of percentage of account size that they want to be at risk. That would certainly work for this strategy in principle, as our risk exposure (stop loss) is a known factor going into each position.

My original idea on this was that whatever lot size I would use for the initial entry into a pair, then I would use that same lot size for the whole sequence. But then I got to thinking, why should that be the case. What would be wrong with having different lot sizes geared to the different risk levels on those positions.

Let's say I want to risk 1 or 2 percent of my account equity for each position. Well my initial entry, being on the Daily, might have a stop loss of 75. So let's say that put me at a 1.5 % risk at a lot size of .10

But now when I stack on the H4, there are times when my stop loss might be 25 pips or less. It seems to me it might be better to adjust my lot size to maintain the same risk of 1.5% (remember my first order is now at BE +) so I could raise my lot size to .30

This would have the advantage of keeping my risk consistent when I loose, and allowing greater growth potential when I win (especially since the majority of my stacks will be on H4 and therefore logically smaller stop losses).

I could see many places on this U/J trend where I would have higher position sizes so instead of having .9 lots currently I might have quite a higher number but still having only risked 1.5% (obviously if I'm stopped out for a loss then I would have another 1.5% upon reentry)

What are your thoughts on this all. Depending on what I hear for feedback I may make the switch next week.

rgrace Feb 24, 2012 3:54pm | Post# 70

I was thinking about that as well. The problem is the first couple of entries you would be taking before the trend has proven itself. So you would be upping your risk before the trend is well underway. Now it would pay off in spades after the trend takes off. Would the increased drawdown for the bad entries, the ones that go for 100 pips or so, be worth it? Looking at your trades it appears that you have had a 40% drawdown at some point in the account. Would this additional risk have put you at 70% or margin call? Could be rather scary imo.

EDIT: I went back and reread this post and realized I did not clarify. It is the same risk as your initial entry, you stated earlier that 75% of the initial entries get to B/E. I would guess that less of your stacking attempts get to break even. So it seems like you would be taking larger losses on the bulk of the trade, when it would make sense to take smaller losses. Just my 2 cents though.

rgrace Feb 24, 2012 3:57pm | Post# 71

No I just look at price action.

Even though we're not tracking the G/U pair right now I did enter earlier and have moved my stop to BE +3. I'm up 39 pips right now.

Nice catch on that one rgrace.

Kind of wish I had taken it live oh well, I did catch an easy 20 pips on the 3x20 exercise from it though.

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 4:08pm | Post# 72


EDIT: I went back and reread this post and realized I did not clarify. It is the same risk as your initial entry, you stated earlier that 75% of the initial entries get to B/E. I would guess that less of your stacking attempts get to break even. So it seems like you would be taking larger losses on the bulk of the trade, when it would make sense to take smaller losses. Just my 2 cents though.
But again, they wouldn't be larger losses...they would all be the same. 1.5 % or whatever you decided to risk. So the real question is am I willing to risk the same amount on a close stop loss vs. a further away stop loss. I'll have to mull that over.

rgrace Feb 24, 2012 4:16pm | Post# 73

But again, they wouldn't be larger losses...they would all be the same. 1.5 % or whatever you decided to risk. So the real question is am I willing to risk the same amount on a close stop loss vs. a further away stop loss. I'll have to mull that over.

It would be a larger loss than you usually take on a stacking trade is what I was getting at. And presumably you lose a lot more of those at stop loss than you do initial entries.

I am not trying to say not to do it, just want to make sure you see the other side of the coin . Personally I would trade this for a few more cycles before making the decision, or at least make the decision during the losing time and not when you are making 40%+ gains a week.

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 4:23pm | Post# 74

Looking at your trades it appears that you have had a 40% drawdown at some point in the account. Would this additional risk have put you at 70% or margin call? Could be rather scary imo.
Good question and I'm glad you brought up the initial drawdown. There are a couple of reasons for the bad start on this.

Firstly, I did not have my entry strategy in place accurately. If you go back (not sure if you guys can see each order or not) you can see some of the entries made no sense. That has tightened up a lot.

Secondly, I think anyone that employs this strategy can expect an initial drawdown. The whole idea of the stacking is to make up for the many small losses and then some. Unless you're lucky right out of the chute (which I wasn't) you're going to draw down until you start cashing in on those legs.

Right now I have 5 series going...
U/J which we're following is up 1962 pips
G/U which I just reentered (thanks rgrace) up 61 pips
E/G is up 182 pips
E/A is up 403 pips
E/Cad is up 732 pips


My hope is that the drawdown won't be significant going forward (who doesn't hope that )

rgrace Feb 24, 2012 4:28pm | Post# 75

Good question and I'm glad you brought up the initial drawdown. There are a couple of reasons for the bad start on this.

Firstly, I did not have my entry strategy in place accurately. If you go back (not sure if you guys can see each order or not) you can see some of the entries made no sense. That has tightened up a lot.

Secondly, I think anyone that employs this strategy can expect an initial drawdown. The whole idea of the stacking is to make up for the many small losses and then some. Unless you're lucky right out of the chute (which...
Your drawdowns will be easier to handle, but when all the pairs are ranging for extended periods you will have dry spells. And drawdown , then a massive profit explosion. Not sure if they will be as large as the initial one, they could be larger as well, you will not know for sure until you trade this for a few years

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 4:28pm | Post# 76

It would be a larger loss than you usually take on a stacking trade is what I was getting at. And presumably you lose a lot more of those at stop loss than you do initial entries.

I am not trying to say not to do it, just want to make sure you see the other side of the coin . Personally I would trade this for a few more cycles before making the decision, or at least make the decision during the losing time and not when you are making 40%+ gains a week.

Lol, Yeah I can see what you're saying. Don't go grocery shopping when you're starving...

In fairness, I think it's obvious that the tighter H4 stacks are going to hit their stops easier.

Maybe I'll come up with a way to leverage in once the trends under way, but I want this to be as duplicatable as possible.

spyderman Feb 24, 2012 4:30pm | Post# 77

I gotta shove off for a while. I'll catch up to any comments when I get back.

Thanks for all your support this week and have a great week end.

BatmanXXL Feb 24, 2012 7:25pm | Post# 78

As Graeme suggested....double your lot size every time your capital is trebled
For example...

3000$ ....use 0.1lot
after 9000$(3x3000)....use 0.2
after 27000$...use 0.4
after 81000$...use 0.8
maybe after 100K...use 1lot
maybe after 175K ... 1.5lots
250K...2lots
750K...4lots ...and so on...

...after that your millipede becoming Giraffe in Que....and its all relative.

You can use more aggressive increasing of lot size but we should to see how we will survive ranges, fake-outs, change of trends and starting of following of market down way...Will happened sooner or letter.

However our aggressiveness is already built in stacking of positions one after another while the trend is intact (Joe method). I think Graeme suggest those rules up for only 4 positions opened...and not what we are doing. But, we are protected by BE, and we waiting first reversal on D1 to close half of positions(diversification). Right? We are not trying to be too brave...and keep positions for next 2 years. It can happened but probably wont. Our base is FB-Joe method with some PA Graeme wisdom.

We can only hope that Monday morning will not arrive one Big Daddy reversal candle which will close all Buys on your U/J for example. Probably only Greamy would be able to catch reversal with 63 sell positions one after another.

As well we will try to stack more aggressive on pairs where our positions surviving and try to ignore ranges and ignore pairs with wicks all around.

Your U/J trades are example of riding of trend with amplifying positions. Really nice trades. Lets wait now first range . I think all is going to be ok...we just have to continue to follow the market..

rgrace Feb 25, 2012 8:07am | Post# 79


We can only hope that Monday morning will not arrive one Big Daddy reversal candle which will close all Buys on your U/J for example. Probably only Greamy would be able to catch reversal with 63 sell positions one after another.

That would be one mother of a candle, I know it could happen but not real likely. Of course there could be a candle the same size to the up on Monday, we never know .

spyderman Feb 25, 2012 4:10pm | Post# 80

As Graeme suggested....double your lot size every time your capital is trebled
For example...

3000$ ....use 0.1lot
after 9000$(3x3000)....use 0.2
after 27000$...use 0.4
after 81000$...use 0.8
maybe after 100K...use 1lot
maybe after 175K ... 1.5lots
250K...2lots
750K...4lots ...and so on...
Yeah I wasn't fond of that idea when I first read it and I'm still not liking it. It just takes to big a jump all at once. I mean one day you're tooling along and the next day you double your risk.

I'd rather use something that gradually goes up with the increase in equity.


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