Build an Equity Millipede with the filtered Flying Buddha
Okay boys and girls, welcome to my new journal thread. The purpose of this thread is to chronicle the progress of a new strategy that I’m employing and to give back to the FF community from which I have gained much.
This is a manual strategy that I personally trade on the Daily and H4 time frames, however it can be scaled to others as well.
This strategy combines elements from the “Building an Equity Millipede” thread located here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149
It’s a great read and an awesome thread, but if many of you are like me you may have found it difficult to implement. I think I may have found the system to accomplish that. It’s certainly not my own invention, in fact it is roughly outlined within the pages of the “Millipede” thread. However, as is typically the case with most systems we all use, I have tweaked it and modified it to work for me.
Some of the elements incorporated were gleaned from discussions over at stevehopwoodforex.com. Some great EA coding going on over there.
The goal is to have an short to intermediate return while preserving many positions for “unlimited” growth.
You don’t have to understand the “Millipede” concept to use this method, but it will help, and some of the points we discuss will only make sense if you understand the principles contained therein. For those who don’t want to consume that whole thread (it is quite lengthy) I have included a zip file of all of Graeme’s (the thread OP) posts.
My method employs a filtered “Flying Buddha” technique. The basic methodology of the “Flying Buddha” is discussed in the attached document and is a must read to understand this strategy.
We’re not using a whole lot of indicators here. I’ve attached a template with my configuration as shown below. Many of the indicators are there for trade monitoring purposes and not necessary to the strategy itself. Use them if you want, delete them if you don’t.
The two main indicators are as follows:
Flying Buddha signals.
MA ribbon alerts set to a 5 and 10 MA
These two indicators help to filter one another.
The setup is run on a daily chart. I’m using the daily in this system because it’s easier for me to monitor. My daily bar starts at 4:00 pm local time so it’s a good time for me to watch for the new bars formation. I then stack on trades on the daily and H4.
We look for the “Flying Buddha” signal indicator to give us just that, an FB signal. As you read the attached file you will understand exactly what these are and why they can prove important.
We are not, however, trading on every flying Buddha, as they occur quite often and are not always…or even usually…an indication in a change of direction. Rather, we use the 5/10 MA crossover indicator to “confirm” the FB. Both of these indicators can be set up to give audible/visible signals when they are triggered.
So when we get a cross of the MA’s soon after a FB signal we have the setup for a trade. As we proceed you shall see that there is still some discretion as to entries. Looking at price action or perhaps current spreads I may not take every setup, but we’ll get to that as we go.
Lot sizes, as always, are important. The attached template contains a nice lot size calculating tool. Based on our initial entry and s/l, along with our desired risk, we can set the lot size accordingly. I will then use that lot size throughout the “series” as I stack additional trades.
The stacking of trades are handled just like discussed in the attached pdf. Read it, and understand it, and then ask questions.
Same as above.
This is an open discussion, however I want to keep it on track with the original direction. We can discuss tweaks, but let’s keep on track. Be nice...or be gone.
Well that’s about it for now. We’ll see how this goes and what kind of legs it has.
Flying Buddha trading system-1.pdf
Graeme Posts Only.zip
Okay, now that we've had a bit of time to assimilate the attachments lets overview the trade.
We'll take a short trade as our example but of course everything applies to a long trade but in reverse.
The chart below show our indicators at work. The blue and magenta arrows are flying buddhas. You can see why we don't take all these as trades. There's just too many. The green and red arrows are the crosses of the MA.
In the blue circle we see a set up FB and a few bars later its confirmed by the MA cross. Looking at price action this appears to be a nice trade so we enter at the cross, if we catch it, or at the open of the next bar and set our stop to a few pips below the low of the previous bar.
As the trade progress we move our stop to BE + a couple of pips. I usually wait until I have some room on the trade before setting to BE...maybe 25 pips or so. There are worse things then having your trade exit at BE.
Once that trade is at BE you can begin to look for opportunities to stack trades as outlined in the attached text. We take these trades at the 50% fib of each successive bar. If price opens above the 50% fib of the previous bar we place a limit order at the 50 with the stop a few pips below the low.
If price opens below the 50 we can place a stop order at 50 with the same s/l or if we have room we can enter at market for a discount and keep the same s/l. Check the price action.
We also zoom down to the H4 tf and follow the same procedure there. This gives us opportunities to really stack trades.
You have to be a little patient with this technique, especially out of the gate. Price action is going to take out some of your orders. Many at BE, but a few at the relatively small s/l that you have set. The idea is once you get rolling the large potential profits will way more then offset the small losses.
Nice to see an implementation of Graeme´s lessons.
I have two questions:
1. From the closed trades there are several with negative results. Were these resulted from false FB? Or are not related to the thread method?
2. Are you using SL? We can see three trades with negative pips. Why did you not set the SL at BE yesterday when they were positive?
Thanks in advance. You got me watching this thread now. I will post my results as soon as I have something interesting.
As to the 2nd question...As this is a manual method and I cannot be in front of the screen at all times, there will be times when s/l doesn't get moved to BE as soon as I would like. That's another reason I'm trading this on daily and H4. Imagine trying to watch trades on the hourly and lower.
Once I get a new signal for the start of a trade sequence I will post the charts accordingly. I think it will be much clearer and more helpful to see how the trades go in real time. We'll have to be patient and wait for the right entry.
As an example of when "not" to trade, here was a FB and subsequent cross on AUD/CHF that I did not take. Notice how price meanders along after the FB. Also the MA crosses were more sideways than vertical like we would like to see.
I would like to find or create an EA for helping setting the SL to BE. I haven´t found one that can handle several trades in different directions. My programming skills are quite insufficient, but I got some time to learn and research how to do it.
Currently I would not dare to open a trade in favour of CHF as the SNB could intervene to weaken it any time, so the rumours say. Now, I prefer to short the AUDUSD because it shows a FB still developing in the daily and weekly charts. But you already know this
Yes the A/U may be setting up nicely. Back to back FB's on the daily and price action is coming down. We'll see if we get a cross.
I've attached a great MM ea that has myriads of bells and whistles for managing a trade. Almost too many bells and whistles.
Multi purpose trade manager.mq4
Multi purpose trade manager instructions.pdf
Thanks for starting the thread.I was a follower of millipede thread but could not follow along,it was movind too fast.I will following you on this thread and try to learn the method with your help.Thanks again
Welcome bhup. Should be a fun ride
Hi Spyderman, thanks for starting the thread. I have a couple of quick questions:
1) You used 5/10 cross to confirm FB. Do you have a limit as to how many days you need to wait? Say if the crossover happens three days after FB, will you still take it?
2) Have you done any test to get an idea of the success rate of initial position of this filtered FB? I remember the original Joe trader's rate is 40%.
Thanks. I've subscribed your thread.
Welcome...excellent questions. I figured someone would ask #1 fairly soon.
The answer, quite frankly, is it depends. There is no set time limit. I look to price action as mentioned earlier. I don't want to see price meander sideways for several days after the FB and then cross. The longer it does the more the psychology that generated the FB fades.
So having said that, usually we'll look for the cross within 2 or 3 bars after the FB.
As to the second question, it depends to some degree what we classify as "success". If we're talking about moving the initial order to BE then I would say around 75%. Now that doesn't mean that we won't lose pips later due to our stacking trades stopping out. Time will only tell on those.
If we measure our success on overall profitability of the trade series, which seems reasonable to me, then we won't be able to measure our success until we begin in close out trades as per the exit strategy outlined in the PDF docs.
Sell trady on CAD/JPY
I've attached a great MM ea that has myriads of bells and whistles for managing a trade. Almost too many bells and whistles.[/quote]
Description of Multi-purpose Trade Manager mention "Put 'Remove stop losses' in the Scripts folder"
Pls attach "Remove stop losses" as this file is missing.
May green pips be with you!
That's one of the "bells and whistles" on the EA that I don't use so I don't have that script in my newer versions of MT4. I'm sure you could find the script here on FF by doing a search, but again not necessary for the EA to function and monitor the trades.
Waiting for the setup
It's always hard coming into a new strategy on the higher TF's and waiting for the right setup. They just don't happen every day. But patience is the key here.
Attached is a very nice hindsight series on the Eur/Aud. You would have closed out many orders on the ranging portion but would have replaced those again on the way down.
Let's be patient
New order on Eur/Jpy
I have spent some time trading with flying buddhas. I never filtered them with a MA crossover like you're doing. I entered when the high/low of the flying buddha was exceeded. I'm interested to see how your method works out.
When I performed my research I found that the success rate wasn't brilliant but the rewards could be very large indeed. For example, I compiled the following stats for trading flying buddhas on the Daily chart for EURUSD from July 2009 to March 2011.
Trades - 41
Winners - 7 (17%, largest - 1,900 pips)
Losers - 9 (22%, largest - 145 pips)
Break even - 25
Total net profit of 5,120 pips.
I compiled stats for other pairs and other time frames but they weren't as impressive.
After compiling these stats I started to trade in real time with flying buddhas. I had mixed results but I found that they're great at identifying apexes in the market. I evolved to only trade a flying buddha if it has confluence with other factors, such as: support/resistance levels, fibo levels, previous high/lows etc. I found that this confluence raised the success rate.
I now no longer trade them exclusively but I still use them regularly in my analysis.
All the best with your trading. I will check back from time to time to see how your experiment is going.
Both JPY crosses stopped out this morning...sigh...
Not a very auspicious start to the thread. Non-farm news is hitting a lot of trade strategy's this morning.
Not to worry...we may not have any more action today which is fine for Friday. We'll start up again at the first of the week.
We'll see how she flies.
Thank for starting this thread. I am still following Graeme's thread which is one of the gems among all forex forums. I like the way you have modified Graeme's teaching to suit your need.
Still waiting for new signals to come out on the Daily. Lot's of activity on existing series, but we'll wait it out.
New order on Eur/Gbp
Personally I believe that waiting for the 5/8 Ema crossover could result in a late entry. Now the problem with a late entry is not the missed pips, but the "big SL".
Also it is very important to remember that the core of his system is not the FB candle entries, but adding positions at every %50 retrace. FB's are just indications of a starting -mostly strong trend.
Thanks Superman for starting this thread
I have get confidence to trading in forex for your live trading with explanation.
I also watching reqularly
I have attached the screen short, USDCAD signal is correct or not?
You're screen shot is zoomed in so its hard to see what price action has been doing.
However in your shot you do have a MA cross but there is no previous flying buddha . Remember we need to see a flying buddha first, then confirmed with an MA cross.
Here is a classic FB setup and trend running the way we want. You can see we started with actually 3 flying buddhas then we got a nice confirmation.
I've stacked on at daily and 4h levels and am currently sitting at six positions.
I apologize I haven't been posting as often as I'd like. I must admit I didn't appreciate how much time it would take to try and keep up with my trading and posting on every trade.
So here's what I'm going to do. I'll take one pair... like the USD/JPY and post all my trades on that one. You'll see how the strategy works.
You can also see how the results show on my journal at the top for all traded pairs.
Feel free to ask any questions and we'll see how it goes.
Its good idea IMO.
For last two weeks, I too tried to trade FB on 4hr charts. Most of them closed at BE. I am bit satisfied with my results as i did not lose a singe dollar, but I need to practice more.
Yes the trick (I think) is staying with it until you hit a trend. Then cashing in on those stacks will more then offset the small losses. I've recently cashed in on G/U and E/U and am building U/J nicely.
It's also a great way to study price action.
Thanks for the tips.
My plan is to stick with FB for while, so that i will know in-and-out of it. I am sure your journal will help me to understand better.
Ok, So you will post usdjpy trade
Order stopped out for -20 pips
On short trades...when a daily candle closes above the last down candles open, then close about half your positions. If the trend then continues in the original direction continue stacking. If it closes again above the last down candle open, exit half again. This continues until you close all positions.
Once all positions are gone then you look to the original parameters to enter a new series.
Recently I was long both the E/U and G/U. Price action closed all my positions for several hundred pips and then resumed upward. I'm back in both pairs long again. When price went down I actually took a short on each as I had the FB and MA cross. But of course these were taken out when price resumed upward.
So, when you place a up trend (buy), the price action is over, then retrenchment start, you place a sell order. which ever the market move one order has close and other order has live (melliped)
Is it correct, please if I'm wrong explain more clear
There's room for discretion here, and to be honest I'm not sure which is the best way to go.
The first option would be to do as follows:
If we place a buy order for example, that starts the series. As long as we have any buys open we no longer are looking at the FB's and MA crosses on this pair.
We continue to monitor price action and look for retracements on the Daily and H4 back to the 50% fib and stack trades there (again refer to the PDF in post #1)
We exit positions as per our guidelines as already outlined. If we get a daily cross in the other direction it probably would have been the result of several daily bars closing below previous up bar opens, so we would have been closing out our positions as that happened.
If we close all positions in a pair, then we can resume looking for our FB's and MA crosses to determine where next to enter the pair.
The way I understand Graeme's description of this FB technique, we may not get the long holds on positions due to closing out in this manner. That is unless we get a long string with smaller retracements.
Imagine if we had 30 positions open. It would take 6 bars closing below the previous up bars open before we would zero out. 30 down to 15...down to 8...then 4...2...1...0
Good chance it would move back to the up side by then.
Basically same as 1 except we continue to monitor Daily price action of FB's and then confirming MA cross in opposite direction. We enter short on those while still holding long positions.
We would continue stacking short as 50% fibs are met, presumably while closing out our long positions 1/2 at a time.
The advantage here is that if we are getting a long term change in direction we are getting in earlier then waiting for all our longs to close and then watching for a short signal that may already of come and gone.
The disadvantage is that if it is a short term retracement and price move back to the upside we obviously will have more short entries stopped out (but hopefully most were at break even).
I tend to favor the 2nd option (which is more aggressive) and I will trade the U/J that we are using that way.
I welcome others input on this as to their opinion.
Market has been slow today with the US being on holiday, but our buy stop on U/J just got hit at 79.67 with our s/l at 79.44
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