Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Interactive Trading (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=137)
-   -   EurAnalysis (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=317077)

FXMindset Dec 17, 2011 10:03am | Post# 15461

1 Attachment(s)
ZigZag
[attach]858603[/attach]

knoholygrail Dec 17, 2011 10:55am | Post# 15462

My Answer Might Surprise You However
 
knoholygrail, I would like to get your opinion on tradebots. Every year the increasing volume of trades are carried out by bots that read PA and react much faster than any trader. This can be great because it increased liquidity and makes price 'tidier'.

Right now, the EUR is obviously hammered but still we see price reacting to the technicals. Do you think this is the actions of the bots that take up around 60-70% of the volume?

Hope your well.
I am well and thank you for asking. There are so many factors that make up the price of any asset class. Then on top of that there is intervention short term. To this we add unknowns which is the period we are in now.

There was not one person in the entire universe who would have said that all the investment houses in the USA would either go bankrupt or turn into bank holding companies.

The point being that there in my opinion is no electonic or mechanical trading system that can consistently win. In a trending market where there is some stability with the proper risk managment certain systems can win for a time.

The market is not random and all the Rocket Scientists (With No Disrespect to Rocket Scientists) were part of the problem. They told their bosses and they knew how to take the risk out of investing.

There is no question that the Black Boxes and trading systems affect the markets.

You can figure out the Black Boxes more easily if you are a technical trader since you can see where support and resistance and supply and demand is. The front running systems in the stock markets affect things often. Intervention by the Central Banks also affect things short term.

The whole point of trading if you are serious is to MAKE MONEY !!!

It is not to feel good, too build your ego up or waste time although that happens. It is not too gamble. It is only too make money and MOST will not which includes all the systems there is that are not human.

The systems are programmed by humans except very few humans understand or know what is going on or they have another agenda.

It is very hard for me to accept that Bernake and his Gang do not realize what they are doing. Yet they continue to do the wrong thing EXCEPT for them they have other agenda's. If you know that if you do nothing the system will collapse and you lose your job and your 1% way of life goes away then integrity, honesty, fairplay goes out the window.

All of my comments above is my view and experience of 67 years which includes other things than just making money. Money is but a tool of life and it can be the root of all evil or it can be used for good.

You CAN make MONEY trading Forex if you have the desire and the energy to do the needed work and you have the brainpower to understand.

However you cannot take out your insecurities in the marketplace. Your fears including the fear of loss and your greed or the need to make money and of course your ego which does not want to be wrong affects ALL traders that trade anything.

Then there is the need to trade with the proper capital and have the time to trade properly. After that you also need to have the focus to concentrate on what you are doing. If you have a regular job whichmany do then trading is either a part time vocation or an expensive hobby.

There is a valid reason if that number is even correct why only 5% of currency traders PROFESSIONAL or Amateur LOSE MONEY !!!

I do not have too deal with most of the problems that I discussed in my post however it took me a lifetime to get here and the discipline to achieve my goals.

I do NOT smoke or do drugs or gamble and I do have an occasional drink. No woman has control over me and I have dealt with most of my weakness. That does not mean that I am better than anyone else including a beggar on the street. It just means that I was blessed to have became the person that I am though my desire and free will. I start something and I finish it no matter what.

All of you and many here have the qualities to win in the markets however there are things that have to be learned and improved on. I learn and improve everyday. I wake up at 5:00 AM and by the time I go to bed it usually is near midnight. I am single, free and have no responsibilities other than to myself so I have the time that those with families or jobs do not have.

I am just trying to share with you my life experience and thoughts on trading. You all have a chance to improve and make money if you learn the tools of your trade. Invest the time and have the desire and the knowledge to see opportunities with the discipline to do it with.

I have paid my dues and life is good and exciting for me. I look forward to my next 28 years until I reach 95.

That is not in my hands so I live each day to the fullest and tackling life and all it's problems head on. Life is not fair and never has been. Life is what you negotiate and do with your free will respecting those around you with a clear view of problems and a positive mental outlook.

That is my view of life after having lived 67 plus years with many ups and downs. I have no formal education and I am a free spirit and a free thinker and I will NEVER sell my Soul to the Devil. I live FREE and will die FREE.

I wish all of us here the best for the New Year. Try always to be impeccable with your word and do not take things personal when someone addresses you on a subject matter as it is only their view. Don't make assumptions on anything and always try to do your best and always keeping your integrity.

I am happy to be alive and I look forward to the future with many thingfs to learn and many adventures in front of me and look AaronWard there was not one snippet in this post. That is a remark made with affection to AaronWard. The more that I respect someone the more likely that I will listen and learn from them. Our EGO is the most destructive character trait that we have to deal with. Try hard to let your heart rule your ego and try to do the right thing even if that sometimes is very hard to do.

Don't compromise with life just demand the best from it and do it for yourself and your loved ones and have the right circle of light. There is much evil and stupidity out there. Stay with the good people and you will come out ahead. That is about it for me now. When I started this post I had no idea what I would say so I just used my heart and my free will to share my thoughts and my feelings. Take care of yourself and your family and remember without your health you do not have a good chance so take care of yourself before anything. Take time to smell the roses and enjoy your family and close friends, Demand life gives you the BEST and go for it without blaming anyone for your defeats. Only you are responsible for your life and your actions. Do the right thing and life might be good to you.

michaelnew Dec 17, 2011 11:05am | Post# 15463

The Euro Is quite Hurt now...
Chart attached
That's one kind of technical analysis I would very much love to know more about Thanks for posting these types of charts.

michaelnew Dec 17, 2011 11:08am | Post# 15464

Try always to be impeccable with your word and do not take things personal when someone addresses you on a subject matter as it is only their view. Don't make assumptions on anything and always try to do your best and always keeping your integrity.
Don Miguel Ruiz touched my life too, and for that I am very grateful. Thanks for this reminder

knoholygrail Dec 17, 2011 11:09am | Post# 15465

And Now Back To Forex And Europe
 
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=28204

Snippet:

Not that the leaders of the other 26 EU states are acting as noble knights in shining armour, vying to protect their populaces from further economic suffering. The revised EU treaty they have in mind will only deepen that suffering by expanding austerity and cutbacks for the majority of people across Europe. The fiscal and economic policies of member states will henceforth be dictated by the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. That is, national sovereignty supposedly serving the people, according to their votes, is to be replaced by the rule of unelected bankers and technocrats. In a very real way, the debt crisis of Europe is serving to usher in a dictatorship of finance capitalism. As Paul Craig Roberts noted recently on Global Research with regard to the EU – “the banks have taken over” [1].

knoholygrail Dec 17, 2011 11:13am | Post# 15466

You are very welcome michael
 
Don Miguel Ruiz touched my life too, and for that I am very grateful. Thanks for this reminder
THE FOUR AGREEMENTS - In Summary Form. Thanks Don Miguel Ruiz for writing it. Get a copy of Think And Grow Rich by Napolean Hill. It is a keeper.

Whatever the mind of Man or Woman can conceive, They can achieve.

Good Day to you.

michaelnew Dec 17, 2011 11:16am | Post# 15467

THE FOUR AGREEMENTS - In Summary Form. Thanks Don Miguel Ruiz for writing it. Get a copy of Think And Grow Rich by Napolean Hill. It is a keeper.

Whatever the mind of Man or Woman can conceive, They can achieve.

Good Day to you.
One of the books that really touched my life. Also, don Miguel published the fifth agreement: be skeptical, but learn to listen. I really like this one. This last book, which of course includes the four agreements, is written together with his son.

As for the banks taking over, in a less formal way, they took over since they appeared.

bumapatria Dec 17, 2011 11:37am | Post# 15468

hey grandpa

how are you?

whats the books about? care to give summary?

Wulfgar Dec 17, 2011 11:56am | Post# 15469

Good post, Wulfgar. I wanna say that your prediction will pan out...IF the Fed wants it to. But I could be wrong, leaning on a risk/dollar weakness correlation that could be undergoing a paradigm shift. If we go full on into a correlation reversal then it may be possible to have strong usd - weak oil and still not crash the stock markets. Weakened euro is now de rigeur for the EZ same as weak usd has been for the USA. But still uberstrong usd wreaks havoc on the exporters - maybe. My suspicion is that the decision has already been made amongst the...
Hey man I agree with you that it is all about what the fed really wants at the end of the day.... if they decide to monetize european banks debt to the nth degree... than ill trade accordingly.... just right now it seems it is very very clear where the EZ is heading...

FXMindset Dec 17, 2011 11:59am | Post# 15470

I am well and thank you for asking. There are so many factors that make up the price of any asset class. Then on top of that there is intervention short term. To this we add unknowns which is the period we are in now.

There was not one person in the entire universe who would have said that all the investment houses in the USA would either go bankrupt or turn into bank holding companies.

The point being that there in my opinion is no electonic or mechanical trading system that can consistently win. In a trending market where there is some...
Very nice post
maybe out of trading topic - am like to know how do you think about life and love since you are going thru many experience in this life


Many thanks and best wishes

PS : Btw,My questions about life and love can be answer by all the member's in this thread/forum

PipTrapper Dec 17, 2011 11:59am | Post# 15471

Hey man I agree with you that it is all about what the fed really wants at the end of the day.... if they decide to monetize european banks debt to the nth degree... than ill trade accordingly.... just right now it seems it is very very clear where the EZ is heading...
Nobody is going to get bailed out until the wolves have taken some of the chickens. That way, the rest of the chickens will agree to anything.

RodMca Dec 17, 2011 12:31pm | Post# 15472

Nobody is going to get bailed out until the wolves have taken some of the chickens. That way, the rest of the chickens will agree to anything.
The general concensus of Irish economists is that the euro-zone will not break but the EU will collapse next on the cards is to look at european banks and their exposure as well as debt masses. In terms of government debt my thinking is that the ECB wont simply start printing money but it will enter the primary bond market to keep rates down and it would be a more effective QE than the one they are doing in the secondary market. I think for them to enter the primary market demand will have to drop further for French and German bonds, no body seems to care about Italy's rate,not yet anyway! However for them to enter the primary market do they need the printer at the ready for them to have a reasonable amount on hand to buy these debts? Or could they simply increase interest rates so more savings will enter the system and bonds will begin to bought again? or is that a little bit perfect world type scenario?

babasemi Dec 17, 2011 4:58pm | Post# 15473

Hi
 
Hi Guys,

Compliments to y'all.
Pls i am looking for information on monthly forex trade volume.
that is from Jan to December (history).
i mean the general amount of volumes traded every month.
i am trying to compare how the months differ.
any help will be greatly appreciated

Thanks and Happy Holidays.

Cheers.

sidhujag Dec 17, 2011 5:39pm | Post# 15474

So Eu banks are deleveraging like us banks were in 2007. If they were smart they would let assets go under fair value because they are overvalued based on a sick economy. If they expect top dollar just because they are banks only a few suckers will buy high to find smart money isnt buying. This will stop banks from lending because they cant deleverage to meet targets. I think it would be smart to let them go 75% value as market will eat it up and youll see eu go to 1.2 and back up in no time.

Since we saw this movie already the market may punish eu banks by pushing eu lower the longer they take the quicker the depreciation. Ofcourse any rally will have to be intervention based since deleveraging should reduce value of your currency. You essentially set a ask and the bid will be lower so price falls. Lets see since China doesnt want a low euro they want eu recovery now not lter. Smart ppl would cry now laugh later but seems greed will win again and we shall cry now and later.

If there is a rally expect a 2007 style move the more it goes up the harder it will fall when in 3 yrs they cant lend because noone bought their assets during deleveraging and they are unwilling to cut their loss ( economics 101).


Good move: sharp drop and as they reduce asking price of assets and then as they are bought up euro creates a base to rally long term to new highs


bad move: Just because specs are short you create a short squeeze behind China intervention. This is lose lose scenario

Pbh Dec 17, 2011 5:41pm | Post# 15475

May as well, see FX, it goes like this. Us humans have needs, except the sexual need, we have 6 emotional needs.

1, Certainty - this is our base need. We need to feel comfortable, in control and safe. Without any certainty, comfort or safety in your life you will be in constant anxiety and fear.

2, Variety (uncertainty)

3, Significance

4, Love/Connection

5, Growth - you are either progressing or digressing.

6, Contribution

Life, as humans, runs on these needs. It can be extremely hard because the objective world cannot give a shit...
hahaha, are you sure this has nothing to do with sex? because after reading the whole post, those 6 points seemed extremely connected.

Tyoon Dec 17, 2011 5:42pm | Post# 15476

hahaha, are you sure this has nothing to do with sex? because after reading the whole post, those 6 points seemed extremely connected.
Everything is to do with sex

Pbh Dec 17, 2011 5:52pm | Post# 15477

“Nobody in America under the age of 70 has ever seen truly hard times. Most under 70 have never even heard stories from their parents about hard times (their parents had never experienced hard times). Ever since World War II Americans have sipped at a punch bowl that was a mixture of borrowing, greed, impatience, debt and inflation. I believe we are now on the path to once again see really hard times, times that force us to think about our current dire situation.



For years America was the shining beacon that allowed the world to see what freedom and free speech and wealth and democracy were all about. America was the dream-land, the ideal. In the years since WWII, that has changed. America is now seen as the meddling, fat, money hungry, war-loving immoral land where you can do what ever you want, and if you have a good lawyer you can get away with it.

I grew up as part of what is now termed ‘the Greatest Generation.’ Most of us survived the Great Depression and World War II. Compared to today, those were moral times, a time of trial and great hardship.



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...o_the_End.html

sidhujag Dec 17, 2011 5:57pm | Post# 15478

“Nobody in America under the age of 70 has ever seen truly hard times. Most under 70 have never even heard stories from their parents about hard times (their parents had never experienced hard times). Ever since World War II Americans have sipped at a punch bowl that was a mixture of borrowing, greed, impatience, debt and inflation. I believe we are now on the path to once again see really hard times, times that force us to think about our current dire situation.



For years America was the shining...
We were expected a recession in early 70s but because of no gold standard we acoided it to create a bubble. so we should in theory have a double impacting depression biggest ever. Or another bubble and a full on war in 50 years ( half the time since this because of exponentail growth)

Pbh Dec 17, 2011 6:11pm | Post# 15479

Gold gold gold...
interesting take/

Short term:

So let’s just say, hypothetically, I have gold and I like gold for the long-run and think it’s a good investment. I’m a bank let’s say and they (depositors) are withdrawing money and I need dollars. Well, I will sell the gold to get the dollars, even though I like my gold position and I think it’s going higher. I may have to sell it to get cash to meet these other obligations in a liquidity crisis and we are seeing a liquidity crisis.



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...he_Dollar.html


And here we goo with the long term:


The ECB will print when they see some deflation....“The Fed will print if the dollar gets stronger because the Fed needs the dollar to be weaker. With all of this printing coming on stream, you can rest assured the price of gold is going to go a lot higher.”


As simple as that.

Pbh Dec 17, 2011 6:15pm | Post# 15480

As simple as that.
orr... maybe not

“Some legislation authorized a $100 billion line of credit from the United States to the IMF. It suddenly occurred to me how this actually works. The IMF puts in the borrowing notice for the $100 billion and the Treasury sends the $100 billion to the IMF. They (the IMF) then use it to bail out Europe.


But here’s what happens, the Treasury sends the money and the IMF gives the Treasury a note because it’s a borrowing. So that’s very significant because for the first time in history the IMF would be leveraging its balance sheet. But the note they give the Treasury is not denominated in dollars, it’s denominated in SDR’s.



The SDR includes dollars, but it also includes other things such as Swiss francs, pounds sterling, euros, Japanese Yen and eventually the Yuan. Now when the note matures, the IMF pays you back in the dollar equivalent of the SDR at that time. In other words, they don’t give you $100 billion back. They take the SDR equivalent back and convert it into dollars at whatever the exchange rate is at the time.



What that means is that the Treasury is going short dollars. Think about the significance of that, Eric. The Treasury sponsors the dollar. You take a dollar bill out of your pocket and look at it, the Secretary of the Treasury signs every dollar bill. It’s sponsored and backed up by the Treasury and yet the Treasury is shorting its own currency by taking SDR notes from the IMF. My question is, if the Treasury is shorting the dollar, shouldn’t the rest of us be shorting the dollar too?”


© Forex Factory