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PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 5:33am | Post# 21

ECB's Mersch Rejects Talk Of Imminent Rate Cut - Report

That's why the EZ will never get it together. They cannot agree on anything.
Earlier today ECB's Nowotny says ECB interest rate cuts cannot be excluded

PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 8:35am | Post# 22

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Okay so it looks like we have finally made it to our target of 1.3495.
Now we are targeting our next resistance (supply) level at 1.3585
It failed to make it that far several times on Friday. Will it make it this time.
If it does, we will next target our ultimate 1.3680/90 area which represents the falling channel resistance.
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Forex Hulk Sep 26, 2011 8:44am | Post# 23

eu
 
EU will go down further. Euo zone debt is weighing for too heavy on equities and stocks. Nothing is getting done to resolve the debt crisis.

PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 9:11am | Post# 24

EU will go down further. Euo zone debt is weighing for too heavy on equities and stocks. Nothing is getting done to resolve the debt crisis.
Hi Forex Hulk
Thank you for your comments.
Please take some time to read the first two posts on this thread to give you an idea of what I am trying to accomplish.
We are in fact very bearish on the Euro. However, we are waiting for a retrace to the falling channel resistance around the 1.3690 / 1.3700 area to open another short position.
Peace

PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 9:46am | Post# 25

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Once again price was aggressively rejected at the 1.3550 level.
This is the third time since Friday morning so it doesn't look like we are going to get to the 1.3690 area to load up on an additional short position this NY morning.
Perhaps if panic selling in NY calms down a bit, we may make another run at it but for now we stand aside and let the market do its thing.

Peace

Update: US New Home Sales at 10am EST Expecting 296k. If it comes in significantly higher, it may give us another shot at the target.

Update: US New Home Sales came in at 295k as expected. So down we go. As we stand now, I have 370 pips of profit on my current short positions.
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PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 10:40am | Post# 26

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX

VIX at 42.9. Be careful out there.

TheSwede Sep 26, 2011 11:18am | Post# 27

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Hi, PipTrapper and everyone else on this thread.

I mainly trade the EUR/USD pair and have been looking for a place to write some setups i trade and get feedback on that, so I'll guess I'll start contribute.

I try to trade the H1 chart as this is what is possible with my work situation. I use naked (almost) charts. Just and S/R and trendlines. I look for 30-60 pips a day and when I got that I quit trading for the day. I look for candle setups and different patterns.

Here is my 4H chart.
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And here is a link to a setup I traded today.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post4988120

PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 11:46am | Post# 28

...I mainly trade the EUR/USD pair and have been looking for a place to write some setups i trade and get feedback on that, so I'll guess I'll start contribute.

I try to trade the H1 chart as this is what is possible with my work situation. I use naked (almost) charts. Just and S/R and trendlines. I look for 30-60 pips a day and when I got that I quit trading for the day. I look for candle setups and different patterns.
Hi Swede and thanks for posting here. If you read the first two posts of this thread, you will get a very good idea of what we are doing here.

My personal trading style is more long term than intraday. I trade mostly on H4 and above. However, as far as patterns are concerned, they are pretty well the same in all time frames. The difference for me is that with higher time frames, I can look at the bigger picture rather than the micro moves in the M1 & M5 chart or the intraday moves in the M15 to H1. Nowadays especially, there is a lot of noise which my trading style pretty well filters out.
I do use the smaller time frames to pick better entries and exits. I do that using price action. My favorite are pin bar/hammer reversals and inside candle breakouts with trend line. s/r and fib confluence in the direction of my general sentiment. I mostly position build. Currently I have 2 short positions. A large one at 1.3783 and a small one at 1.3495. The one at 1.3495 is only there in case we have a further break to the downside without having an opportunity to load another large short position in my target zone of 1.3680

I and everyone else who posts here will be more than happy to give you some feedback on your setups and we also look forward to your contributions. Perhaps we will be able to help you make better entries in the smaller TFs.

Cheers

TheSwede Sep 26, 2011 12:01pm | Post# 29

Thanks for having me . I just can't stand the noise over at EUR/USD thread and I need all the feedback I can get.

Hi Swede and thanks for posting here. If you read the first two posts of this thread, you will get a very good idea of what we are doing here.

My personal trading style is more long term than intraday. I trade mostly on H4 and above. However, as far as patterns are concerned, they are pretty well the same in all time frames. The difference for me is that with higher time frames, I can look at the bigger picture rather than the micro moves in the M1 & M5 chart or the intraday moves in the M15 to H1. Nowadays especially, there is a lot of noise which...

PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 12:23pm | Post# 30

Thanks for having me . I just can't stand the noise over at EUR/USD thread and I need all the feedback I can get.
At EURUSD, the culture is all about chest beating and tomcat spraying. Those who offer you help are sometimes feeding you misinformation to purposely screw you up and laugh about it afterwards. It's like a pack of wild dogs all fighting over who will be the alpha male and who will be the bitch.

Much nicer here

TheSwede Sep 26, 2011 12:46pm | Post# 31

Don't listen to them. At 40 years old, wife and 3 kids, daytime job, etc you need to learn to pay attention to things and people that matter. Just keep a tight leash when they show up cause they will...

At EURUSD, the culture is all about chest beating and tomcat spraying. Those who offer you help are sometimes feeding you misinformation to purposely screw you up and laugh about it afterwards. It's like a pack of wild dogs all fighting over who will be the alpha male and who will be the bitch.

Much nicer here

PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 12:54pm | Post# 32

Don't listen to them. At 40 years old, wife and 3 kids, daytime job, etc you need to learn to pay attention to things and people that matter. Just keep a tight leash when they show up cause they will...
If they show up here, they will get one warning. Then they get blocked.

PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 1:01pm | Post# 33

My trading day is over people.
I'm off for a nice dinner and a relaxing evening.

Will be back for Europe open.

---------------------------

Hardpike Sep 26, 2011 2:14pm | Post# 34

thanks
 
Hello piptrapper

thankyou for this thread. I know you are one of the good guys out there.
I hope to learn a lot following your advices and annalysis.

Its great to be here

regards to all

leerees Sep 26, 2011 3:30pm | Post# 35

Hi Guys,

I did try and post this in EUR/USD but it got ignored.

What are your thoughts regarding pip movement once the greece default / bailout is announced?

walb99 Sep 26, 2011 4:32pm | Post# 36

Hi Guys,

I did try and post this in EUR/USD but it got ignored.

What are your thoughts regarding pip movement once the greece default / bailout is announced?
markets are not driven by a single event

Pbh Sep 26, 2011 4:51pm | Post# 37

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=317180

ECB said to consider restarting covered bond purchases

This news would kind of disturb the strong bear sentiment (the short-term) for a while.

mm... I see EURUSD no where and ranging. I will give you guys my opinion of where this pair would go during the London open.

*Nice thread by the way

Pbh

TheSwede Sep 26, 2011 5:57pm | Post# 38

Hi,

I really don't know and try not to anticipate it. There will of course be spikes but a default is probably priced in already. The recapitalization of banks is one step closer of letting Greece default (trying to minimize damage)

I think there are other events that will be much more interesting.
Greece is a minor economy. Take a look at CDSs for Spain and Italy, they are the drivers now.

Hi Guys,

I did try and post this in EUR/USD but it got ignored.

What are your thoughts regarding pip movement once the greece default / bailout is announced?

PipTrapper Sep 26, 2011 6:42pm | Post# 39

HardPike, LeeRees, Walb99 and Pbh.

Welcome to EurAnalysis. It is great to have you here.

I just got home from my nice evening out and thought I would check in before heading to bed.

While I am at it, I figured I would say hello and say welcome to the 4 of you from me and on behalf of all the others already subscribed here.

Please take the time to read the first two posts of this thread so that you can familiarize yourselves with the purpose of this thread and my current mission.

I am looking forward to seeing some posts from you in the coming days.

Peace

foto Sep 26, 2011 8:29pm | Post# 40

Would make the following comment.
Although I remain a USD bull for macro reasons and hopefully that bias is not affecting my interpretation of todays trading range. It was something of a difference in how the Euro traded today.
In the past on news such as the possibility of imminent passage of the Euro bailout scheme the USD would have been trashed as the Dow rose. This did not happen, the USD index although having been strongly bought recently and looking a bit extended held above the 78.00 level and as of the time of this post is strengthening from the NY close.

Whether the market is waiting for the bailout package to be passed in Europe first before resuming the typical behavior of selling USD's or possibly the alternative, there may be a fundamental change in outlook that the market is keying on.

I am holding my USD longs which are short Euro, Aud, Cad
I also am short the AUD/NZD for risk aversion purposes.

The idea is that a bailout would have been factored into institutional investors already. They do not place money based upon forexfactory posts.

Something else may be moving these markets.
If there returns a sharp adverse move in the USD index I will close the positions until then remain in holding pattern but wary.


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