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-   -   Daily EUR/JPY analysis (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31431)

Isotonic Jun 8, 2006 4:08pm | Post# 1

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i passed on this pair today, just as well really!

wait for the second touch before going short...or be vigilant for fakeouts if you want to jump in.
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fxvision Jun 9, 2006 2:47am | Post# 2

I jumped right in. After such a strong trendline I wanted to risk a fake breakout. Glad I did. Asia followed suit as expected and has traded eur/jpy to below 144.

Isotonic Jun 9, 2006 3:33pm | Post# 3

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I'm still watching this one, but no prizes for guessing where it found support...
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soso_beton Jun 13, 2006 7:15pm | Post# 4

Yep, nice trade, I'm in too .

PeterFM Jun 17, 2006 9:25am | Post# 5

Taking a longer term view
 
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I thought I'd offer this to the experts.
I quite like this pair as at first glance it looks to follow steady patterns, but, I couldn't make up my mind on where to plan my trades.
I decided to look at the long term and I think the pattern is interesting.
The trendline (monthly) is, and has been, symettrically down since the beginning of 1983. There also looks to be solid S/R at the current price going back someway.
Now I know past performance is no help for future predictions, but having struck the fib from 1983 to the latest low, it's amazing how each turndown has happened at a major fib number.
At the moment the price has only just cleared the 25 fib, and, as pointed out earlier, there is a double top. In fact if you go back to April 18th the current price is only a few pips higher than then. Correct me (being new to this) but I'm thinking treble top.
I'm going to wait for the price to head south and then follow it.
Any thoughts would be appreciated
Peter
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soso_beton Jun 19, 2006 12:18pm | Post# 6

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Strong bounce of upper trendline. Waiting for now, one of the trendlines will break.
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Isotonic Jun 19, 2006 4:11pm | Post# 7

i agree wait for the break. i think it might break down.

Mosaic Jun 20, 2006 6:05am | Post# 8

Strong bounce of upper trendline. Waiting for now, one of the trendlines will break.
Hi soso

Do you wait for break of the lines, or a close above/below the t/l ? if a close - is it a daily close ? if a break, do you set a limit order above/below the t/l - if so, how much above/below ?

cheers
John

soso_beton Jun 20, 2006 7:18am | Post# 9

Hi John,

It depends, gut feeling has a large role for me. In current EURJPY case I would wait for current bar (daily) to finish because as you can see it is not a clear break, it could still bounce back. But, I will stand aside on this pair for now using the daily system, as I am short since yesterday following the rules of my second system.

I don't use limit orders though it would be a good idea if screen time is a problem.

The whole daily system is to follow the most current trend while keeping an eye on incoming trendlines (like current EURJPY) in which case it is better to stand aside. Entries are mostly on TL touch.

Hope it helpes

Cheers,

P.S. What happened to your journal? Not posting anymore? Your charts are great!

Hi soso

Do you wait for break of the lines, or a close above/below the t/l ? if a close - is it a daily close ? if a break, do you set a limit order above/below the t/l - if so, how much above/below ?

cheers
John

Yardie Jun 20, 2006 6:58pm | Post# 10

Wow your marriages are short lived LOL. You will be back to EURJPY when GBPJPY start to drive you nuts hehe.

This will be my last EURJPY chart for a while. I've jumped ship (again)!

GBPJPY is my new Yen darling...(time to woo a new mistress).

well, lookey here...

imbiber Jun 21, 2006 1:25am | Post# 11

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I'm still a newbie and hopefully I'm not making wrong moves but I'm going long on eurjpy at 145.00 because of fib line at 50.00. My take profit is 145.51. My stop loss is 144.83.
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Mosaic Jun 21, 2006 4:01am | Post# 12

Hi John,

It depends, gut feeling has a large role for me. In current EURJPY case I would wait for current bar (daily) to finish because as you can see it is not a clear break, it could still bounce back. But, I will stand aside on this pair for now using the daily system, as I am short since yesterday following the rules of my second system.

I don't use limit orders though it would be a good idea if screen time is a problem.

The whole daily system is to follow the most current trend while keeping an eye on incoming trendlines (like current EURJPY) in which case it is better to stand aside. Entries are mostly on TL touch.

Hope it helpes

Cheers,

P.S. What happened to your journal? Not posting anymore? Your charts are great!
2nd system....what you using for that ?

and the journal's going again...thanks

cheers
John

soso_beton Jun 21, 2006 4:27am | Post# 13

Nothing fancy, same trend following technique using trendline bounce only that the entry it is done on 1H charts and a couple more simple rules. Until now it is ok, if it'll make me money I'll post the details.


2nd system....what you using for that ?

Yardie Jun 21, 2006 6:23am | Post# 14

Looks like your call was a good one imbiber .



I'm still a newbie and hopefully I'm not making wrong moves but I'm going long on eurjpy at 145.00 because of fib line at 50.00. My take profit is 145.51. My stop loss is 144.83.

fxvision Jun 21, 2006 6:56am | Post# 15

Funny, I am short from 145.15. Stop at 145.25. Daily pivot resistance. Gonna see if there comes a retrace from here...

Yardie Jun 21, 2006 6:59am | Post# 16

It looks like the the 130s level is a thing of the past for this pair. Its been ranging between 140.00 and 146.00 since April. What are your thoughts FXVision?



Funny, I am short from 145.15. Stop at 145.25. Daily pivot resistance. Gonna see if there comes a retrace from here...

fxvision Jun 21, 2006 8:25am | Post# 17

Well, I got reversed as the resistance got trashed and liquidity returned to the market. Next upside target could be 145.70. If that tripple top is shaped we could see a retrace. With Fukui underlining the need to maintain zirp we could very well see 146 soon.

imbiber Jun 23, 2006 12:07pm | Post# 18

Gone long at 145.57, target 146.34, SL 145.19.

fxvision Jun 23, 2006 12:15pm | Post# 19

Ouch, stopped out by 3 pips... sorry to hear that. And only 8 pips away from your target. Or did you close in profit before it turned down?

imbiber Jun 23, 2006 12:20pm | Post# 20

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I'm still in the trade. Not stopped out yet.

Edit - The image is poor but i went long at the 61.8 fib line.
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