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-   -   The Really Useless Thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=310676)

goosebone May 4, 2017 5:21pm | Post# 150841

{quote} Nice write-up. Appreciate it. Got a question. Back on March 10th, we saw a major NFP overshoot and the EUR/USD rallied and continued the zigzag up to 1.086x. I realize at the time, Yellen confirmed the hike in advance for March 15th. Since its clear that no FED hikes will take place until July or Sept., will this NFP be any different if it overshoots?
June should hike. (so they say). Not sure what confirmation you mean for March though.


Guess theres no reason to wrap up the bullish roll at this point.
Gotta go. Good luck to everybody trading NFP tomorrow!

sisse May 4, 2017 5:37pm | Post# 150842

Very solid day in the Euro. ...We are rolling with a xxxx ..@goosebone don't think you are out of the woods yet ....we still have one full day and double NFP/France combo coming so floor is all yours till tomorrow close...


sisse

suntan May 4, 2017 5:42pm | Post# 150843

No trade here so just trying to get in synch with the market and understand the current moves. Seem to be getting lost in translation, maybe as due to st and mt legs in play.

With treasuries falling and dollar falling things don't seem to add up. The current move is Euro led which may answer this question. I'm just failing to see why the huge dollar sell off and if this will reverse once the French elections are out of the way and we can concentrate st on the next fed hike.

Assuming the market is front running the French election outcome could we see a buy the rumour sell the fact scenario? The market also seemed to be desperate to test 1.0970/1.10 area which it more or less now has.

If if I was to take a position now it would t be a buy at such elevated levels. Could a short here be a very low risk trade assuming 1.10 holds? This seems more sensible to me than buying potentially a short term top.

Been following the conversation between goosebone and sisse with great interest and looking forward to seeing how that concludes.

Not sure, wouldn't be interested in others thoughts?

goosebone May 4, 2017 5:49pm | Post# 150844

Very solid day in the Euro. ...We are rolling with a xxxx ..@goosebone don't think you are out of the woods yet ....we still have one full day and double NFP/France combo coming so floor is all yours till tomorrow close... sisse
Jesus. I need a drink. I'll punch in tomorrow before NFP. Have a good night.

ptoftangency May 4, 2017 6:03pm | Post# 150845

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} June should hike. (so they say). Not sure what confirmation you mean for March though. Guess theres no reason to wrap up the bullish roll at this point. Gotta go. Good luck to everybody trading NFP tomorrow!

Perhaps Sisse's chart will help.


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hoom May 4, 2017 6:14pm | Post# 150846

{quote} Jesus. I need a drink. I'll punch in tomorrow before NFP. Have a good night.
you change your invisibility mode more than a girl changes clothes , is it the alcohol ! lol
Cheers anyway .

goosebone May 4, 2017 6:23pm | Post# 150847

{quote} you change your invisibility mode more than a girl changes clothes , is it the alcohol ! lol Cheers anyway .
Cant decide whether i like sneaking around better or not. But if im just going to get called out either way its not as fun.
And that was a typo. I meant to say hoom needs a drink.

goosebone May 4, 2017 6:25pm | Post# 150848

{quote} Perhaps Sisse's chart will help. {image}
Aaaah...that kind of confirmation. I thought you meant confirmation confirmation. Like a full on announcement or something. Misunderstood.
Im genuinely interested to know why you are sure they wont hike in June when you get a chance though.

hoom May 4, 2017 6:34pm | Post# 150849

{quote} Cant decide whether i like sneaking around better or not. But if im just going to get called out either way its not as fun. And that was a typo. I meant to say hoom needs a drink.
my bad , hoom is born with a glass of wine in his hand .

The Fool May 4, 2017 9:17pm | Post# 150850

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- NFP carries much weight this week. I'll attempt here to put down, brief and simple, why I think it does. I honestly dont have much beyond the obvious but here it is: FED: NFP as significant Q2 data will, in part, determine whether the FED can stick with the "transitory" language around Q1 weakness or might want to revise that to something more broad and even cautionary. Whether it pans out that way by June meeting or not, markets should percieve a worse than inline report as a brake on June tightening. BOND MARKET: A good employment number should...
RE: the NFP, the Fed, and the Stock & Bond markets: we're not there yet. Markets are still fixated on politics. However, I think there will be big returns short UST's in late 2017 and 2018, still dependent on US politics and DJT govt delivering on the juicy part of the Trump agenda: tax reform and deficit spending....if DJT is getting things done by this Summer and the Fed appears to be on track with tickytack ffr hikes and SOMA adjustments (draining the balance sheet), we should see UST's fall - TLT could go below $110 after a Jun FOMC hike, under $100 in Q1 '18....

http://www.barrons.com/articles/what...eet-1491500343

"My base case is that, after a knee-jerk selloff in long-dated Treasuries, demand comes rushing back in, holding down or driving down long-dated UST yields. In the junk debt market, I expect a short-lived rally followed by selling into that rally for the purpose of moving in on the risk spectrum. This will probably happen following the December 2017 FOMC meeting. Why December? I believe the Fed wants to give the economy as much time to gather steam, after what feels like a weak first-quarter and to see what form fiscal policy takes. However, like her predecessor Ben Bernanke, I believe Fed Chair Yellen would like to get the next phase of monetary policy renormalization underway before her term ends at the end of January 2018."

....I only agree with the highlighted part above, but I am only bearish UST's if the Trump agenda gets going.
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goosebone May 4, 2017 9:37pm | Post# 150851

{quote} RE: the NFP, the Fed, and the Stock & Bond markets: we're not there yet. Markets are still fixated on politics. However, I think there will be big returns short UST's in late 2017 and 2018, still dependent on US politics and DJT govt delivering on the juicy part of the Trump agenda: tax reform and deficit spending....if DJT is getting things done by this Summer and the Fed appears to be on track with tickytack ffr hikes and SOMA adjustments (draining the balance sheet), we should see UST's fall - TLT could go below $110 after a Jun FOMC...
Thanks for the perpective there Fool. I guess Im recognizing many of the elements that will be in play but not when they will be in play.
Much appreciated!

sisse May 5, 2017 3:59am | Post# 150852

... and that was pretty much it for the European session that have been in a wild ride this week .

Nothing to see until NFP to close prolly what it has been the most important week for markets this year.

sisse

goosebone May 5, 2017 4:51am | Post# 150853

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NFP levels on (zoom) midterm chart. This is how I am thinking things will go within reasonable margin of error, from news to week close.
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goosebone May 5, 2017 5:09am | Post# 150854

Just reposting this one closer the news as nothing has significantly changed. A few posts above this one @Fool pointed out I may be getting ahead of schedule on some of this. So thats good to take with it. Right here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...62#post9831362


--------------------------------------------------------------
NFP carries much weight this week. I'll attempt here to put down, brief and simple, why I think it does.
I honestly dont have much beyond the obvious but here it is:

FED: NFP as significant Q2 data will, in part, determine whether the FED can stick with the "transitory" language around Q1 weakness or might want to revise that to something more broad and even cautionary. Whether it pans out that way by June meeting or not, markets should percieve a worse than inline report as a brake on June tightening.

BOND MARKET: A good employment number should move yields up with it and prices down as traders will view it as a FED tightening obstacle removed, and to a much lesser degree, short term positive for inflation. The reflation trade being mostly out of style as of late, may get some juice in the short term with an overshoot. Flop is the opposite.

STOCK MARKET: This is where you put down the grain of salt and take whatever I have to say with a shot of whiskey instead. My feeling is that Inline is good news and over/undershoots are both bad news. Undershoot points out weak numbers in the economy are not necessarily contained by Q1 anomaly. Overshoot makes the case for June tightening. Right or wrong on all that, I think if recent history is taken into account, any bump in volatilty here will be barely noticable and reaction to either side will likely be over by the closing bell.

EUR/USD: Kneejerk reaction should be significant on this report. NFP flop could/should break 1.105x and higher eyeing a path to 1.1115/40 range. I will be tracking it closely on the MT chart. An overshoot may reach or even break 1.082x to close the week putting shorts in a better position going into weekend risk. (doesnt really apply as much anymore) Inline should be a drift back to close in the current 1.097x area after kneejerk is cleared.

The Numbers: NFP should maintain a number over 150,000 to avoid major flop status. 150k-180k would not meet expectations for this report but after the initial reaction may not be digested as a huge disappointment. Inline is 180k-205k. Overshoot is above that 205k.

(Just a suggestion here: I think it might be interesting if others posted here what they think makes a flop/overshoot on NFP tomorrow as opinions on that maybe all over the place and it could be informative to those who are new to this analysis like me. )

CommercialB May 5, 2017 5:29am | Post# 150855

NFP levels on (zoom) midterm chart. This is how I am thinking things will go within reasonable margin of error, from news to week close. {image}
Appreciate the great posts. Also be wary of fixating too much on the big headline employment number ..as has been mentioned in the thread already since full employment has been more or less established there is less scope / expectations for employment gains and there should be less emphasis on the growth number and more on the other variables such as wage growth via inflation etc.

Fadhl May 5, 2017 5:32am | Post# 150856

NFP levels on (zoom) midterm chart. This is how I am thinking things will go within reasonable margin of error, from news to week close. {image}
Thanks Goose for taking publicly the lead!
I might disagree with you on the level on Inline, Over and Under shoot. Taking into consideration the last flop (98K) and US is in almost full employment, my levels are:
Inline: 100-150k
Undershoot: <100k
Overshoot: 150<
I don't know what the others think, but in my view the experts forecast is quiet high (180k). This said good luck to everyone!

goosebone May 5, 2017 5:35am | Post# 150857

{quote} Appreciate the great posts. Also be wary of fixating too much on the big headline employment number ..as has been mentioned in the thread already since full employment has been more or less established there is less scope / expectations for employment gains and there should be less emphasis on the growth number and more on the other variables such as wage growth via inflation etc.
Good point there. Thanks. The labels on the chart and "The Numbers" part of my post are too focused on the jobs number. Makes sense.
What would constitute a Flop/Inline/Overshoot in your estimation?

goosebone May 5, 2017 5:36am | Post# 150858

{quote} Thanks Goose for taking publicly the lead! I might disagree with you on the level on Inline, Over and Under shoot. Taking into consideration the last flop (98K) and US is in almost full employment, my levels are: Inline: 100-150k Undershoot: <100k Overshoot: 150< I don't know what the others think, but in my view the experts forecast is quiet high (180k). This said good luck to everyone!
I can see what you mean. Thanks for the input Fadhl!

CommercialB May 5, 2017 5:46am | Post# 150859

{quote} Good point there. Thanks. The labels on the chart and "The Numbers" part of my post are too focused on the jobs number. Makes sense. What would constitute a Flop/Inline/Overshoot in your estimation?
well ...can't say I could disagree much with Fadhl ..but my point being that whatever the headline number is and the initial kneejerk reaction to it, once the dust settles the real flows could well be dictated by the other numbers and of course wage inflation which is a def Fed trigger and for me is the one to watch here.

Fadhl May 5, 2017 5:53am | Post# 150860

{quote} well ...can't say I could disagree much with Fadhl ..but my point being that whatever the headline number is and the initial kneejerk reaction to it, once the dust settles the real flows could well be dictated by the other numbers and of course wage inflation which is a def Fed trigger and for me is the one to watch here.
I agree that the focus will be on wages and not on NFP as we are in full employment. Thanks!


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