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-   -   The Really Useless Thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=310676)

goosebone Apr 15, 2019 7:54am | Post# 157501

{quote} He sounds like he thinks last autumn sell-off and the slowdown are 100% monetary policy driven, and not at all related to his trade policy.
Exactly, when the lift from Dec lows is actually the part that's floating on FED expects. Those may or not have enough steam left to push higher, but imho it will take more news in that direction to break ATH if so.

Replicant Apr 17, 2019 6:28am | Post# 157502

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... and in MIL:JUVE {quote} Big big flop for my map It looks like some hands think Juventus FC are going to win UCL (hmm hmm) ...
Juventus FC knocked out

Main trendline and previous reversal up holding the leg down so far
but reversal down is already in play (a close below 1.4825 will be enough) and will lock everything above 1.60xx/1.61xxx

I have loaded shorts @ 1.4260, aiming 1.25xx and 1.03x/0.97xx

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Replicant Apr 30, 2019 6:29am | Post# 157503

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In TSLA :

{quote} and TSLA hammered on the resistance. It's at a support right now but looks soft, next ones I have are 274 (main bear target, PT expected) and 260/263 a strong bull support. {image}
260/263 strong support finally lost, it looks now set to clear my MT target 19x/20x

I like following TSLA too, aiming 19x/20x for the MT (TA wise) {image}
It's been already a long way since the highs, ebbs and flows panned out flawlessly, all in synch with S/R


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Replicant Apr 30, 2019 6:32am | Post# 157504

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In Juve :

{quote} Juventus FC knocked out Main trendline and previous reversal up holding the leg down so far but reversal down is already in play (a close below 1.4825 will be enough) and will lock everything above 1.60xx/1.61xxx I have loaded shorts @ 1.4260, aiming 1.25xx and 1.03x/0.97xx {image}
No brainer really imo, 1.42xx was the obvious one to fade, 1.25xx cleared and holding so far but main dish is still at 1.03xx/0.97xx imo (with the complete reset of Ronaldo's hype at 0.85xx)


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Replicant Apr 30, 2019 6:38am | Post# 157505

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In EURUSD, bottom of the map 1.112x cleared, and decent bounce from there

Map I have in EURUSD : 1.112x (ST Bottom) <== 1.118x <== 1.122x (intraday only) <== 1.128x (FA Level) <==> 1.131x (Flip) ==> 1.136x (intraday only) ==> 1.142x (ST Top) breaking up 1.151x unlocks as high 1.1650 ...

Intraday wise, 1.122x/3x looks the one to fade now
Still sideline on the pair though

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Big picture in DXY is a no brainer. We might have some tremendous fun if ES crashes ahead of US presidential campaign. Some tremendous twitter account might heat, fighting the FED. There is still that 98.70 pending though. {image}
DXY couldn't clear 98.70

Replicant Apr 30, 2019 6:46am | Post# 157506

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{quote} Yup :-) {image} Bulls managed to trigger the reversal up and cleared 286x and 291x. Reversal up has shifted ST range to the upside, with 279x the new flip and 262x the new ST bottom. I have nothing new for the MT. {image} 29xx probably going to make some headlines and dreams (3K). Let's see how US stocks can handle US & WW slowdown at these levels with fed rates at 2.50%, US-China deal priced in but still not delivered and Trump eager to start new trade war with EU. Loaded here (PUT 2800 September + CFD). 262x by late Q2 / Q3 looks very...
In ES, max expected pullback 291x wiped out but still holding my shorts : I don't buy AT ALL that last US GDP.
3.2% is a lol as almost 40%/50% of it is due to temporary and technical reasons (mainly on Trade front, technicalities to avoid tariffs)
Sitting tight ! Still aiming 262x by end of June at the earliest, by September at the latest.

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Replicant Apr 30, 2019 6:54am | Post# 157507

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In USDJPY :

On a side note, USDJPY looks very well aligned with ES (risk on/risk off), nearing its MT top. 112.4x looks like the magic area in this TF (last broken SH + last break down point + fib 78.6) {image} D1 leaves more margin though : bulls breaking up 112.1x will unlock 112.9x/113.1x imo But it might be only a wick in W1 then. {image}
112.4x was uncovered to the tick.
With bulls, the same day, unable to take 112.1x on the close. Superb .

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goosebone May 1, 2019 5:07pm | Post# 157508

Aaand.....right back to 2917.50.

Sam85 May 2, 2019 8:47am | Post# 157509

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Replicant May 5, 2019 6:51pm | Post# 157510

Short circuit on trade front finally. Risk off triggered. And equities were already very high... UJ in synch.
As it stands, without a last minute deal, ES looks set for a sharp one.
Losing 288x (=reversal down on D1) will unlock 281x/279x imo. 272x is the one to track on W1.

goosebone May 6, 2019 8:23am | Post# 157511

Short circuit on trade front finally. Risk off triggered. And equities were already very high... UJ in synch. As it stands, without a last minute deal, ES looks set for a sharp one. Losing 288x (=reversal down on D1) will unlock 281x/279x imo. 272x is the one to track on W1.
Got 2866 on W as minimum if D can do away with 2889 (not playing along atm). But it's not clean with 2878 muscle memory and a few magic lines around there.

goosebone May 7, 2019 4:17pm | Post# 157512

{quote} Got 2866 on W as minimum if D can do away with 2889 (not playing along atm). But it's not clean with 2878 muscle memory and a few magic lines around there.
2866 hit and looks like a day close flirting with 2889. Plenty of news/fake news potential left in the week.

Replicant May 8, 2019 8:33am | Post# 157513

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{quote} 2866 hit and looks like a day close flirting with 2889. Plenty of news/fake news potential left in the week.
Sitting tight here. I haven't TP anything yet in ES. Extension from 288x to 286x but no reversal down so far. I think we just need the end of trade war truce fact (as it stands, it will be next friday tariffs) to break down.
I have first TP planned at 279x (ST flip), then 272x (W1 continuation down trigger) and for later 262x (ST Bottom).

Intermediate target in UJ from the top cleared at 109.9x (continuation down trigger) though.
Next TP planned at 108.5x (MT flip), and for later 106.3x (MT Bottom).

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Replicant May 8, 2019 8:58am | Post# 157514

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ES ST/MT

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Replicant May 10, 2019 6:44pm | Post# 157515

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{quote} Sitting tight here. I haven't TP anything yet in ES. Extension from 288x to 286x but no reversal down so far. I think we just need the end of trade war truce fact (as it stands, it will be next friday tariffs) to break down. I have first TP planned at 279x (ST flip), then ...
Tariffs triggered but no reversal down in the chart. Extension as low as 282x but it didn't break down. Couldn't TP at 279x. 282x is the previous reversal up but I thought that level will be wiped out. Risk off looks gone for the very short term, especially with UJ holding uncovered 109.9x on W1. Patient and confident for longer TF though.

ES
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UJ
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goosebone May 13, 2019 11:30am | Post# 157516

{quote} Tariffs triggered but no reversal down in the chart. Extension as low as 282x but it didn't break down. Couldn't TP at 279x. 282x is the previous reversal up but I thought that level will be wiped out. Risk off looks gone for the very short term, especially with UJ holding uncovered 109.9x on W1. Patient and confident for longer TF though. ES {image} UJ {image}
Getting tight now. I'd like to see 2814 acting as res. if can hold below.

Replicant May 14, 2019 7:10am | Post# 157517

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{quote} Tariffs triggered but no reversal down in the chart. Extension as low as 282x but it didn't break down. Couldn't TP at 279x. 282x is the previous reversal up but I thought that level will be wiped out. Risk off looks gone for the very short term, especially with UJ holding uncovered 109.9x on W1. Patient and confident for longer TF though. ES {image} UJ {image}
Reversal down finally triggered in ES and 279x cleared :

=> Top (293x/4x) is now confirmed
=> plotted fib is now valid (price action wise).
=> 2916 and 2826 are rejection/break down levels.

Next target I have is 272x (any retrace leg in between is good to fade at 291x max 293x/4x).

Tariffs II on Chinese goods triggered but Tariffs III (full) on hold till G20 as it stands.
But there are potential Tariffs II on EU goods (cars) coming, deal talks expected to end soon.

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Replicant May 14, 2019 7:40am | Post# 157518

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In EURUSD, D1 looks heavy. Bulls need to break up SH 1.132x. Until then, shorts should prevailed imo (for the bottom 1.112x and beyond).

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On W1, the breakdown has shifted the potential reversal up from 1.182x to 1.144x. But, if we break down current SL, I don't see a lot of supports in this TF before 1.09/1.08 .

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Fxtrader92 May 14, 2019 8:31am | Post# 157519

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Replicant May 14, 2019 12:44pm | Post# 157520

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trying my luck for a breach of trader code of conduct too

"Where to buy and sell weed in Toronto" Map :

TSX:WEED
Canopy Growth Corporation

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