And with a shy inflation still struggling to pull up wages, and with slower growth coming, end of cycle is superschecked imo.
No brainer really imo with the very dovish FED and with macro data still holding and mild inflation.
2) on the EUR/USD
All out when losing the flip on H4 a month ago :
3) on EUR/CHF
(on so poor CHF macro and inflation data !!)
Second intermediate target cleared @ 1.141x
Taking last hurdle 1.15 in EUR /CHF will probably come simultaneously with bulls taking 1.1570 in EUR /USD
In any case, ceteris paribus, time decay in favour imo of EUR vs both USD and CHF in 2019 via rates expectations for dec 2019 but more probably march 2020.
EZ needs to clear european parliament elections and brexit noise
But expecting some surprise (up) on inflation /wages front in EZ
All the best
Xīnnián kuàilè (lol my mandarin is awful)
Thailand doesn't need Netflix :
Princess Ubolratana PM candidate of Thai Raksa Chart Party !!! (This party is remote controlled from abroad by former prime ministers Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra).
And this, very probably with the consent, behind the scene, of her brother King Vajiralongkorn, recently on the throne and who definitely seems eager to change things in Thailand.
While Prayut will run for the army ............
That is massive as historically army and monarchy + "the rich ones" (=the yellow shirts in the streets) always walk together versus Shinawatra party (=the red shirts in the streets) which is reformist, modernist but demaguogue as well.
Thailand baht is going to falter :
--> it's a red line for the army and the conservatives
--> but the king's sister as all royal family members are loved by Thai people
--> it's a big reshuffle right before upcoming elections and an earthquake for thai society
Ubolratana has a lot of chances to win knowing a bit thai society (which will mean a policy very close to Shinawatra's one ie. a very loose monetary policy) but Army can short circuit everything at any time (before and after the elections).
Very negative for Thailand baht for ST/MT imo.
EURUSD is back to the bottom of the range (1.131x) again after losing again the flip (1.142x/3x).
And EURCHF is back to its flip (1.131x) after clearing bull target at 1.141x.
Very gloomy outlook for Italy via the populist clowns.
Losing 1.125x (bulls natural stop) in EURUSD is still direct 1.118x imo. Until then benefit of the doubt should prevail and, in any case, MT wise, it's still accumulation.
Equities stalled after ES cleared 2723.
Wintering in Taiwan? How is that?
Exotic, easy, cheap.
No mass tourism, off the beaten tracks in S-E Asia.
Nice people, mix of chinese and native, heavily influenced by japanese standards. Friendly, approachable, non invasive. Horrible timezone for trading, perfect :-)
As curious as it may sound, bears still have the upper hand on this TF, price has not even reversed up on daily.
Breaking up the orange area will unlock 286x and 291x. I expect bulls to extend the area but not to take it. I will try to jump in on a rejection of the area.
MT view on ES :
Some better numbers in EZ lately (especially in France, with, among other data, unemployment rate at its lowest since 2009) but overall still very soft, manufacturing sector weighing heavy in the majors, but in the US this sector is slowly showing sos signals and that should weigh heavier on the cross imo. Fiscal blowout in the US is also on track.
Only threat I have for eurusd to lose the floor is a combo car tariffs + no deal brexit (==> 1.098x). But expecting threats only, not facts.
Nice charts. Very similar to what I am watching for. Price is entering a sort of proving ground for this map/direction currently. I am expecting to see an extension wick on the weekly up into your "natural fade" box. I would like to short that area pretty good if it pans out.
I have begun building bearish positions for mid-march and beyond....very small nibbles so far...
US political headline risk is taking a little bit of shape out there on the foggy horizon....nothing tradeable just another ill wind that seems to spell trouble for this ancient bull market.
Nice, guys. A last pop with the expected US-China deal sounds good.
Then, I think DT will follow the same methodology (ie. pure comedy) with EZ cars (threats-threats-threats => negociations => threats-threats => negociations => threats => negociations => deal with just cosmetic changes) to please his core voters ahead of 2020 presidential election.
He has no choice, he can't apply tariffs, world wide slowdown (due in part to his policy) has already arrived in the US (annualized GDP next thursday will confirm it).
It will only get worse if he applies tariffs and moreover, it will impact first his core voters (most from manufacturing and agricultural sector).
On top, Trade war is bullish USD, exactly what he doesn't want as he obsessed by US trade balance.
In any case, I think ES can't make a new high : growth cycle peak is behind, slowdown here, DT fiscal package effects fading ... ES has already entered in a cycle down with last autumn leg imo. US Macro data deterioration + Trade war noise + Mueller's investigation will just set the pace.
Can kicking is the name of every game in play on the world stage these days anyway. From China/US to Brexit to Mueller to everything else. I think it's the only PE they teach you in politician school.
The shit can't hit the fan if the man can kick the can!
One I like to follow, Juventus FC, is sitting now at important levels.
Might offer some arbitrage opportunities with any gambling sites with the upcoming UCL 2nd leg vs Atletico Madrid :
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