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Replicant Feb 5, 2019 3:04am | Post# 157361

0)

... Leaving the "further gradual increases" in the statement was probably a mistake because after the conference press that came after the release, there was no doubt any more that now FED is strictly data dependent and not any more on autopilot for hikes, whereas this "further gradual increase" still hints hikes on autopilot in the collective unconscious of markets...
... they will probably need to adapt their statement at next FOMC ...
Fixed ! Now it's all written, stamped and official.
And with a shy inflation still struggling to pull up wages, and with slower growth coming, end of cycle is superschecked imo.

Replicant Feb 5, 2019 3:13am | Post# 157362

1)

{quote}. ... => As importantly I think, in US Equities we are back in BTFD. A very dovish FED with Macro Data overall still holding and decent (although lately it's a mixed bag probably announcing a more important slowdown in the MT) is a super combo for Equities. For ES, I have 2585, 2630 and 2723 as targets...
{quote} ... Any dip on any miss/flop in Macro Data should be bought imo in the ST via the super dovish FED that should provide a deep retrace/dead cat bounce...
Final target of the swing on ES cleared @2723. Almost 300 points on this one.
No brainer really imo with the very dovish FED and with macro data still holding and mild inflation.

Replicant Feb 5, 2019 3:31am | Post# 157363

2) on the EUR/USD

All out when losing the flip on H4 a month ago :

{quote} Agree, I have more or less the same level 1.14227. If bears break that level on H4, I will clear all the remaining longs I have for my final swing target 1.1650.
And all in again on the test of the never ending 1.131x :

... For the swing in play : - If your FA analysis tells you, there is a game changer in the cross via FED (first hint on nov 28, second one at last FOMC, final one last friday) and that we are going to reverse the daily downtrend : - then you load at 1.131x which is a clear identified support TA wise on daily (there were multiple occasions to do that) - and, since the reverse of the daily downtrend will come with the break of 1.155x, that will make this 1.155x your first theoretical target. But, pratically, you will TP in between on a soft res...
Map is still the same, 1.131x bottom, 1.142x/3x flip, 1.155x that was extended to 1.1570 last month the top to break up to reverse the downtrend on daily and to unlock 1.165x on the ST and 1.182x max 1.199x for the MT. All above remaining locked FA wise via dovish ECB on rates.

Replicant Feb 5, 2019 3:53am | Post# 157364

3) on EUR/CHF

On EURCHF (...) It seems we have a nice setup for a swing that could bring us to 1.163x. (...)
Floor hold strong during the flash crash in thin market after the roll. It looks litteraly on a launching platform now . H1 has already reversed up I think ; on H4 bulls need to take 1.131x. Both TF have an intraday floor @ 1.122x imo. Reversal up (of the retrace) on daily will come with the break up of 1.136x. Let's see ! {image}
{quote} Intermediate target cleared at 1.131x. 1.134x/5x strong res and key. Failure to take it will mean more chop. {image}
We have finally reversed up the retrace leg on daily
(on so poor CHF macro and inflation data !!)

Second intermediate target cleared @ 1.141x

Taking last hurdle 1.15 in EUR /CHF will probably come simultaneously with bulls taking 1.1570 in EUR /USD

In any case, ceteris paribus, time decay in favour imo of EUR vs both USD and CHF in 2019 via rates expectations for dec 2019 but more probably march 2020.

EZ needs to clear european parliament elections and brexit noise

But expecting some surprise (up) on inflation /wages front in EZ

All the best

Xīnnin kuil (lol my mandarin is awful)

Replicant Feb 8, 2019 9:07am | Post# 157365

Thailand doesn't need Netflix :

Princess Ubolratana PM candidate of Thai Raksa Chart Party !!! (This party is remote controlled from abroad by former prime ministers Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra).

And this, very probably with the consent, behind the scene, of her brother King Vajiralongkorn, recently on the throne and who definitely seems eager to change things in Thailand.

While Prayut will run for the army ............

That is massive as historically army and monarchy + "the rich ones" (=the yellow shirts in the streets) always walk together versus Shinawatra party (=the red shirts in the streets) which is reformist, modernist but demaguogue as well.

Thailand baht is going to falter :
--> it's a red line for the army and the conservatives
--> but the king's sister as all royal family members are loved by Thai people
--> it's a big reshuffle right before upcoming elections and an earthquake for thai society

Chaos possible

Ubolratana has a lot of chances to win knowing a bit thai society (which will mean a policy very close to Shinawatra's one ie. a very loose monetary policy) but Army can short circuit everything at any time (before and after the elections).

Very negative for Thailand baht for ST/MT imo.

Replicant Feb 9, 2019 12:00am | Post# 157366

... And this, very probably with the consent, behind the scene, of her brother King Vajiralongkorn....
Wrong. King doesn't back her and claimed her move is against constitution as royal family members have to remain neutral politically. But technically she is not any more by law since 1972.

EURUSD is back to the bottom of the range (1.131x) again after losing again the flip (1.142x/3x).
And EURCHF is back to its flip (1.131x) after clearing bull target at 1.141x.
Very gloomy outlook for Italy via the populist clowns.

Losing 1.125x (bulls natural stop) in EURUSD is still direct 1.118x imo. Until then benefit of the doubt should prevail and, in any case, MT wise, it's still accumulation.

Equities stalled after ES cleared 2723.

The Fool Feb 9, 2019 12:51am | Post# 157367

1) {quote} {quote} Final target of the swing on ES cleared @2723. Almost 300 points on this one. No brainer really imo with the very dovish FED and with macro data still holding and mild inflation.
I rode the Jan btfd train too, there is more track north but I had thought it might play as Q4 earnings wind down...I have been flat since last week, but thi king it's time to sell some calls

Wintering in Taiwan? How is that?

Replicant Feb 9, 2019 4:45am | Post# 157368

{quote} I rode the Jan btfd train too, there is more track north but I had thought it might play as Q4 earnings wind down...I have been flat since last week, but thi king it's time to sell skme calls Wintering in Taiwan? How is that?
Well done. Technically next one is 2791 but I think it will really struggle to go higher from here (and taking the triple top looks almost impossible with DT fiscal stimulus fading away and without china deal news). I will try to short ES above 272x next week for a breath to 263x and 258x.

Tawan :
Exotic, easy, cheap.
No mass tourism, off the beaten tracks in S-E Asia.
Nice people, mix of chinese and native, heavily influenced by japanese standards. Friendly, approachable, non invasive. Horrible timezone for trading, perfect :-)

Replicant Feb 23, 2019 8:50am | Post# 157369

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{quote} Well done. Technically next one is 2791 but I think it will really struggle to go higher from here (and taking the triple top looks almost impossible with DT fiscal stimulus fading away and without china deal news). I will try to short ES above 272x next week for a breath to 263x and 258x...
Was stopped out on shorts in ES. Theoretically this 2791 is the last target for bulls riding the dead cat bounce. There is nothing above (assuming it's only a dead cat bounce).
As curious as it may sound, bears still have the upper hand on this TF, price has not even reversed up on daily.
Breaking up the orange area will unlock 286x and 291x. I expect bulls to extend the area but not to take it. I will try to jump in on a rejection of the area.

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MT view on ES :

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Replicant Feb 23, 2019 9:27am | Post# 157370

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{quote} ... EURUSD is back to the bottom of the range (1.131x) again after losing again the flip (1.142x/3x). And EURCHF is back to its flip (1.131x) after clearing bull target at 1.141x. Very gloomy outlook for Italy via the populist clowns. Losing 1.125x (bulls natural stop) in EURUSD is still direct 1.118x imo. Until then benefit of the doubt should prevail and, in any case, MT wise, it's still accumulation...
Nothingness in EURUSD. Still chop in ST and accumulation in MT. 1.125x was slightly extended but bears could not take it (not even in H4, not even in H1 !!!).

Some better numbers in EZ lately (especially in France, with, among other data, unemployment rate at its lowest since 2009) but overall still very soft, manufacturing sector weighing heavy in the majors, but in the US this sector is slowly showing sos signals and that should weigh heavier on the cross imo. Fiscal blowout in the US is also on track.

Only threat I have for eurusd to lose the floor is a combo car tariffs + no deal brexit (==> 1.098x). But expecting threats only, not facts.


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{quote} ... And EURCHF is back to its flip (1.131x) after clearing bull target at 1.141x...
in EURCHF, it was possible again to clear two times longs from 1.131x. Otherwise, it's the same as EURUSD, ST chop / MT accumulation, cars tariffs and no deal brexit being the only threats (and probably the reason why price is stuck at these levels).

goosebone Feb 25, 2019 8:22am | Post# 157371

MT view on ES :

Nice charts. Very similar to what I am watching for. Price is entering a sort of proving ground for this map/direction currently. I am expecting to see an extension wick on the weekly up into your "natural fade" box. I would like to short that area pretty good if it pans out.

The Fool Feb 25, 2019 11:11pm | Post# 157372

{quote} Was stopped out on shorts in ES. Theoretically this 2791 is the last target for bulls riding the dead cat bounce. There is nothing above (assuming it's only a dead cat bounce). As curious as it may sound, bears still have the upper hand
I kind of agree that money is to be made short US equities for the rest of Q1. I'm not much of a chartist, rather have I been looking for China trade news (positive) to provide gas for the last extension north. Nothing there but hot air though, maybe something real will hit the wires maybe not.

I have begun building bearish positions for mid-march and beyond....very small nibbles so far...

US political headline risk is taking a little bit of shape out there on the foggy horizon....nothing tradeable just another ill wind that seems to spell trouble for this ancient bull market.

The Fool Feb 25, 2019 11:17pm | Post# 157373

{quote} Nice charts.
...hey goose. Miami was great....I was sad to have to come home....there was a foot of snow on my little car when I got back to the Seatac lot at 3AM....and a 3 foot drift behind it that the plows had kicked up...been downhill from there....I really must get a more southerly address. Going to Savannah in April.....

goosebone Feb 26, 2019 7:04am | Post# 157374

{quote}...hey goose....
What's up Fool. Yeah Miami is a fun town. Savannah is beautiful. The old houses and quaint streets make it look a little like a Bahamian island (if it was run by the Daughters of the Confederacy and everyone talked like Frank Underwood).

Replicant Feb 26, 2019 8:06am | Post# 157375

Nice, guys. A last pop with the expected US-China deal sounds good.

Then, I think DT will follow the same methodology (ie. pure comedy) with EZ cars (threats-threats-threats => negociations => threats-threats => negociations => threats => negociations => deal with just cosmetic changes) to please his core voters ahead of 2020 presidential election.
He has no choice, he can't apply tariffs, world wide slowdown (due in part to his policy) has already arrived in the US (annualized GDP next thursday will confirm it).
It will only get worse if he applies tariffs and moreover, it will impact first his core voters (most from manufacturing and agricultural sector).
On top, Trade war is bullish USD, exactly what he doesn't want as he obsessed by US trade balance.

In any case, I think ES can't make a new high : growth cycle peak is behind, slowdown here, DT fiscal package effects fading ... ES has already entered in a cycle down with last autumn leg imo. US Macro data deterioration + Trade war noise + Mueller's investigation will just set the pace.

goosebone Feb 26, 2019 8:09am | Post# 157376

{quote} have I been looking for China trade news (positive) to provide gas for the last extension north. Nothing there but hot air though, maybe something real will hit the wires maybe not.....
Trump/Xi both have incentive to make a fake and toothless deal of some kind which I'd say is priced in pretty hard at this point. Sure it would be good for DT to bring home more than that, but more is not really on the table imo. At this point I think he'd like to quietly step into a phone booth and change out of the Tarriff Man costume. He will be happy with any kind of headline-making agreement that gets us back to where he started this beauty pageant. I bet S&P kneejerk on any further announcements gets swallowed up same session.
Can kicking is the name of every game in play on the world stage these days anyway. From China/US to Brexit to Mueller to everything else. I think it's the only PE they teach you in politician school.

The shit can't hit the fan if the man can kick the can!

Replicant Feb 26, 2019 9:17am | Post# 157377

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} ...The shit can't hit the fan if the man can kick the can!
nice hexameters (almost)

Map in H4 in EURUSD :
I have Bears jumping in trying to fade 50% retracement for 1.131x and 1.128x and Bulls aiming to wipe them out for 1.144x where stronger bear hands are.

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goosebone Feb 26, 2019 9:34am | Post# 157378

{quote} nice hexameters (almost)
Yes hexameters. Well I don't claim to be a master of that. Like Jay Z or Jay B (Jean-Antoine de Baf)

Replicant Feb 27, 2019 8:22am | Post# 157379

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{quote} Yes hexameters. Well I don't claim to be a master of that. Like Jay Z or Jay B (Jean-Antoine de Baf)
lol (had to google that)

One I like to follow, Juventus FC, is sitting now at important levels.
Might offer some arbitrage opportunities with any gambling sites with the upcoming UCL 2nd leg vs Atletico Madrid :

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Replicant Feb 27, 2019 8:34am | Post# 157380

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EURUSD H4

still pointing to 1.144x in this TF
flip on daily (& swing intermediate target from 1.131x) still the never ending 1.142x/3x
end of month flows have the upper hand now though

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