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hoom May 4, 2017 12:26pm | Post# 150821

{quote} In my books, Markets priced in Macrons victory with the leg 1.061x --> 1.097x. If you add to this, Current FA/Rates differential + June hike expectations + Brexit Risk + Mute ECB till at least June/July, I think nothing can justify to stay at this level anymore.
June hike expectations ?!! we are trading a fact/done deal not expectations at this point
Brexit Risk ?!! mostly faded short term
Mute ECB till at least June/July !! yeah sure but investor/trader is tracking like a hawk the shift in sentiment >> trade expectations

sure 1.097x is a major lvl as I mentioned many many many times but are you implying a selloff and to what extent [bottom lvl]?

suntan May 4, 2017 12:27pm | Post# 150822

Saw this on Twitter today: After the next rate hike short carry trades in EURUSD are going to yield around 1.70%

Replicant May 4, 2017 12:33pm | Post# 150823

{quote} June hike expectations ?!! we are trading a fact/done deal not expectations at this point Brexit Risk ?!! mostly faded short term Mute ECB till at least June/July !! yeah sure but investor/trader is tracking like a hawk the shift in sentiment >> trade expectations sure 1.097x is a major lvl as I mentioned many many many times but are you implying a selloff and to what extent [bottom lvl]?
it's not priced in at all imo (we need NFP)
??? didn't know that
we did it imo with 1.061x -->1.097xx
1.061x and if ECB flops in June/July 1.029x
GL !

hoom May 4, 2017 12:46pm | Post# 150824

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{quote} it's not priced in at all imo ??? didn't know that we did it imo with 1.061x -->1.097xx 1.061x and if ECB flops in June/July 1.029x GL !
as much as I liked your contributions about the election polls I strongly disagree with you .

it's not priced in at all imo ???
Really !!! june hike expectations reached +90% after yesterday FOMC check the before and after screenshots

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after Click to Enlarge

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what does priced in mean in your books ?

Brexit Risk ?!! mostly faded short term >> ??? didn't know that

Really !! after May called snap election and negotiation of brexit deals were delayed so risk short term faded and the relief rally we got on sterling ...

investor/trader is tracking like a hawk the shift in sentiment >> trade expectations > we did it imo with 1.061x -->1.097xx

Really!!but you said Markets priced in Macrons victory with the leg 1.061x --> 1.097x

and last what do you mean by ECB flop or you know what , don't answer that I'm not ready to dig deep in this discussion because I am a lazy mfker . lol

traderguy7 May 4, 2017 1:01pm | Post# 150825

{quote} And you know this how?
I know this because I think differently from you.

priceaction1 May 4, 2017 1:01pm | Post# 150826

so she did it 1.0970 area add another short@1.0972 area

Pharm0r May 4, 2017 1:17pm | Post# 150827

{quote} In my books, Markets priced in Macrons victory with the leg 1.061x --> 1.097x. If you add to this, Current FA/Rates differential + June hike expectations + Brexit Risk + Mute ECB till at least June/July, I think nothing can justify to stay at this level anymore. {quote}
Flawless election calls to you as well

traderguy7 May 4, 2017 1:17pm | Post# 150828

{quote} Large victory for Macron on Sunday is now a done deal and is fully priced in. We cleared yesterday evening the last potential pitfall for Macron : the television debate. Le Pen was just ridiculous to say the least ; even now in her own party, members are appalled and ashamed of her grotesque performance. Cac and Dax moving accordingly, and Euro visiting the top of the range. We are aligning to sell the news IMO.
I don't listen to polls because first you have to ask: who is doing the polling? Are they biased? Second: There are only probably a handful of giant media companies that control almost all media, the hundreds of channels you may watch are all controlled by them in some way, but just rebranded differently. Third: Ask yourself, as with the Trump election how could so-called "experts" get it so wrong by predicting a Hillary win, so confidently?

I definitely think Le Pen has a chance to win. I wouldn't pay attention to the manipulative mainstream media. As with the U.S. Presidential election, Trump's victory was not a surprise to me or any other person who actually tries to keep their pulse on the sentiments of the country. Trump's win was only a surprise to the brainwashed zombies who only listen to mainstream media.

The manipulative mainstream media will always try to project "their" person as already winning by a wide margin so as to discourage anyone who may even think of trying to vote for the opposition. This is a psychological tactic used to push their agenda. They think they can discourage people right from the start by touting "their" person as already having a commanding lead. I wouldn't buy this.

I definitely think Le Pen has a good chance of winning this election. This is really something to think about.


goosebone May 4, 2017 1:25pm | Post# 150829

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{quote} as much as I liked your contributions about the election polls I strongly disagree with you . {quote} Really !!! june hike expectations reached +90% after yesterday FOMC check the before and after screenshots before {image} after {image} what does priced in mean in your books ? {quote} Really !! after May called snap election and negotiation of brexit deals were delayed so risk short term faded and the relief rally we got on sterling ... {quote} Really!!but you said Markets priced in Macrons victory with the leg 1.061x --> 1.097x and last...
CME just got to 74% today. Different stats for different cats. Maybe CME lags. Either way,pricing in for sure. Not sure if it matters after 65%. Are you thinking that when looking at June hike expectations in isolation, NFP will have no effect?

Why is it a contradiction to say a run from 1.061x to the all important (been on everybody's charts for nearly 2 years) 1.097x is both a slower shift in ECB expectations and a faster, harder push (don't quote that, it didn't come out right) due to Election risk fading? It seems you are thinking today's test of 1.097x is due to ECB expectations. Why right now? I am thinking that ECB sentiment shift you describe won't get any real pressure behind it until the Bank actually turns some kind of heat up. Probably some form of that happens June 8, maybe it doesn't though....

...down closer 1.061x for June FED would be such a surprise?
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Deitreider May 4, 2017 1:40pm | Post# 150830

{quote} I know this because I think differently from you.
Please enlighten me how you know who is doing what in the market? If you just think that since price is moving, it must be the "big banks", this is not knowing. Knowing would be if you somehow saw who were behind the largest positions. For this you would have to have access at the liquidity provider level, which I'm sure you don't.

goosebone May 4, 2017 1:40pm | Post# 150831

{quote} I don't listen to polls because first you have to ask: who is doing the polling? Are they biased? Second: There are only probably a handful of giant media companies that control almost all media, the hundreds of channels you may watch are all controlled by them in some way, but just rebranded differently. Third: Ask yourself, as with the Trump election how could so-called "experts" get it so wrong by predicting a Hillary win, so confidently? I definitely think Le Pen has a chance to win. I wouldn't pay attention to the manipulative mainstream...
French Polls nailed round 1. Theres no electoral college game to blur it like in USA.

From 538 (right after Round 1 so 26 point number is obsolete):

"Before the U.S. election, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by only about 2 percentage points in the average swing state. In the Brexit vote, the “Remain” campaign’s lead was at least as narrow: about 2 points according to a simple average of polls, or just 0.5 percentage points according to a more complex averaging method. So while Trump’s victory and Brexit were historic events in world history, they were utterly routine occurrences from a polling standpoint; 2- or 3-point polling errors are extremely common.

But while there were plenty of precedents for a polling error large enough to elect Trump, there aren’t all that many examples of a 26-point polling error, which is what Le Pen would need."

I dont disagree at all about the media's influence by the way. Just that if they actually believed (like many of us did) that Trump had no chance, they (we) werent manipulating the polling necessarily, they were cherry picking it or outright ignoring it.

hoom May 4, 2017 2:02pm | Post# 150832

{quote} CME just got to 74% today. Different stats for different cats. Maybe CME lags. Either way,pricing in for sure. Not sure if it matters after 65%. Are you thinking that when looking at June hike expectations in isolation, NFP will have no effect? Why is it a contradiction to say a run from 1.061x to the all important (been on everybody's charts for nearly 2 years) 1.097x is both a slower shift in ECB expectations and a faster, harder push (don't quote that, it didn't come out right) due to Election risk fading? It seems you are thinking today's...
CME is a tool , Bloomberg platform is another , you gotta check historical scores to see which is more accurate .
In both cases , we know what % should be considered as a done deal and how is priced in market in advance.
Thre is no contradiction between shift in sentiment and the rally due to risk fading via election. In fact , the last euro move is pricing in the election outcome more than any other factor in play. I was just arguing the fact that @Replicant is mixing the ECB sentiment and the current election outcome flows which isn't exactly what I am trying to show there .

hoom May 4, 2017 2:09pm | Post# 150833

...down closer 1.061x for June FED would be such a surprise?
It wouldn't actually , Trump single handedly is able to move market and if euro* is neutral and us dollar gets a boost via DT actions for exmeple as hikes ,like Sisse explained yesterday, doesn't have the same effect now that we are in monetary policy equilibrium ...so there is room for other factors to cause a usd rally and push euro lower to your lvl.

sisse May 4, 2017 3:13pm | Post# 150834

==> A very active day for trading across the board bar US equities. Europe with a very solid day with positive news from earnings and all fronts pushing European Equities. To put the cherry on top expectations of clearing French elections reaching as high as 95% chances on the Paris/Frankfurt close but the highlight of the day comes in the commodities front.

==> GOLD getting hammered as we clear all extreme risk positions for the week preempting the weekend moves and OIL in a clean sweep unlocking levels all the way down to the $35.xx handle with strong inherit fundamental forces from the supply side entering in the equation.

==> Treasuries and Bonds also on the move. Particularly interesting the major flows in the German Bund. We have a double play, clearing extreme risk and setting the playing field for end of QE expectations play around the corner.

==> Finally as if wasn't enough, currencies on the move with Euro* in absolute control of the FX board with smart money front-running the weekend play. Euro cleaning all soft hands at the current highs and completing the test to the uber important FA and key 1.097x.

==> Very important move in the Euro, not updating outlooks yet (LT have lasted nearly 8 years since last updated live in the thread ...a few more days wont change much) just for the sake of confirmation over the weekend but its all pretty much settle from the Euro* side as soon as we clear France.

Plenty to talk here as we are sitting at MAJOR key levels in the Euro in 'choose your poising time' in the MT for nearly a week but with markets already front-running the results and only NFP to serve as final move...

Tracking extremely closely the Euro close today...

sisse

sisse May 4, 2017 3:32pm | Post# 150835

FED Neutral/Dovish (inline w/ expectations spelled out in last post)>>-- Tight chop inside 1.092x/1.088x til NFP Max range 1.094x/1.085x
{quote} Widen both those stops by 15 points and ill take the other side of your wager. LMT buy 1.0885 TP 1.1035 // SL 1.0835 r:r //1:3 ----------------------------------- LMT Sell 1.0885 TP 1.0735 // SL 1.0935 r:r //1:3
==> LMT Sell 1.0885 [check] TP 1.0735 // SL 1.0935[check]

@goosebone

Something went wrong. What do you think happen? More than trying to overanalyse a bad trade lets try to check some lessons (or not) to be learn>

A few points to kick start the conversation?

 

  1. Despite direction, you were out of range on the flows. We have massive FED (softer of all of them)/ NFP / French combo. That is an explosive combo for wherever you want to look at it. Your range is so tiny that wont even qualify for a intraday move play...
  2. On the FA side (despite of today moves) you know that clearing France will bring major updates in the Quarters to come in the Euro* as not only would clear extreme risk of the table but with the plethora of very solid numbers across all sectors ECB end of QE exceptions play is literally 'weeks' from triggering (check last ECB for more details).

Let's try to be constructive and move forward. Let's hear your view until the close. What do you think is going on? has your opinion changed etc? has TA changed? FA?...we build from there and try to have a good wrap up....

sisse


chronical May 4, 2017 3:45pm | Post# 150836

Holger Zschaepitz‏ @Schuldensuehner

Looks as if SNB sold Euro in Q1 2017, JPM says. Share of EUR in FX reserves dropped sharply from 42% in Q4 to 39.7%, share of USD & JPY rose
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_Abs1GXcAAhF0h.jpg

goosebone May 4, 2017 4:02pm | Post# 150837

{quote} {quote} ==> LMT Sell 1.0885 [check] TP 1.0735 // SL 1.0935[check] @goosebone Something went wrong. What do you think happen? More than trying to overanalyse a bad trade lets try to check some lessons (or not) to be learn> A few points to kick start the conversation? Despite direction, you were out of range on the flows. We have massive FED (softer of all of them)/ NFP / French combo. That is an explosive combo for wherever you want to look at it. Your range is so tiny that wont even qualify...
That wasnt a bad trade. That was a little binary wager with hoom that I lost. Basically what's first 730 or 1040?

This was a bad trade:

"Short EU 1.0920 Stop 1.0980 TP1 1.0820 TP2 1.0520
May add if NY takes it higher."

Yes everything has changed TAwise on my end with the break of 950. Not a huge shock, just wasnt seeing that pre NFP. FAwise (actually maybe this is TA too) a change in how early risk would clear occured, at least according to my idea of it.

My view? I was busy putting down thoughts on NFP when I saw this. Maybe I'll just post that and let someone else do the talking for a while. Could be there's some big lesson in this but I imagine it might be a little simpler than all that. And it might take a minute or two or a day or two for me to get it anyway.


--------------------------------------------------------------
NFP carries much weight this week. I'll attempt here to put down, brief and simple, why I think it does.
I honestly dont have much beyond the obvious but here it is:

FED: NFP as significant Q2 data will, in part, determine whether the FED can stick with the "transitory" language around Q1 weakness or might want to revise that to something more broad and even cautionary. Whether it pans out that way by June meeting or not, markets should percieve a worse than inline report as a brake on June tightening.

BOND MARKET: A good employment number should move yields up with it and prices down as traders will view it as a FED tightening obstacle removed, and to a much lesser degree, short term positive for inflation. The reflation trade being mostly out of style as of late, may get some juice in the short term with an overshoot. Flop is the opposite.

STOCK MARKET: This is where you put down the grain of salt and take whatever I have to say with a shot of whiskey instead. My feeling is that Inline is good news and over/undershoots are both bad news. Undershoot points out weak numbers in the economy are not necessarily contained by Q1 anomaly. Overshoot makes the case for June tightening. Right or wrong on all that, I think if recent history is taken into account, any bump in volatilty here will be barely noticable and reaction to either side will likely be over by the closing bell.

EUR/USD: Kneejerk reaction should be significant on this report. NFP flop could/should break 1.105x and higher eyeing a path to 1.1115/40 range. I will be tracking it closely on the MT chart. An overshoot may reach or even break 1.082x to close the week putting shorts in a better position going into weekend risk. Inline should be a drift back to close in the current 1.097x area after kneejerk is cleared.

The Numbers: NFP should maintain a number over 150,000 to avoid major flop status. 150k-180k would not meet expectations for this report but after the initial reaction may not be digested as a huge disappointment. Inline is 180k-205k. Overshoot is above that 205k.

(Just a suggestion here: I think it might be interesting if others posted here what they think makes a flop/overshoot on NFP tomorrow as opinions on that maybe all over the place and it could be informative to those who are new to this analysis like me. )

Bud Foxx May 4, 2017 4:33pm | Post# 150838

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Its all about R:R Chancing a long at 1.0510 SL 100 pips TP at 1.1000 we had a 13 candle countdown (Demark) on the Monthly chart. When this countdown works it tends to spot a trend reversal ( We had also a 9 count during January 2015 which actually failed to reverse..) If it pans out we should get a run to 1.10 area Yes, it is counter trend and counter FA, but I think the market has already priced in the March hike and since everyone is on the boat to the same direction its going to tip over.. we need up before down. Good luck to all {image}
{quote} If you keep this trade open till your TP is hit .. I will get in touch with you in a couple of sessions ... Nothing is right or wrong in this game ... Bookmark this conversation will catch in few sessions... And happy weekend buddy ...
And I will take that, clearing almost all remaining Euro positions @ 1.1000 !!!! (Don't be a dick for a tick rule as the master Sisse says .. ) leaving just crumbs for the actual run at the round number if we get one.

What a tough trade, holding from mid 1.0550, adding 1.0650 and at 1.0750 , going through all the ups and downs and tweets and French elections, and reading all you peoples' great views and charts (mostly with a bias to SELL) and holding despite it all.
I am going to freshly re-evaluate Euro at these levels before initiating any new positions. This sucka still has room.
It is possible I might of closed this waaayy too early as 1.12 is in the cards too should the market be able to pass 1.10 and position itself above this level and have it act as support..
NFP tmw could give the final push and/or offer choose your poison time for long or shorts with relatively small stops.

Good luck all! I am off to celebrate.

P.S I know I have posted my positions up until now but I have decided that is childish and not worthy of this thread.
I apologize for it and will only post views/charts from now on.

... while Oil losing foot with risk fading away in the last few days. It keeps struggling, good numbers in Europe will help but China is starting to cough and US numbers are starting to point to a bit softer Quarter. NFP will give the go ahead in that front. ...so not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all. sisse
P.S. good call Sisse on the sell-off in OIL. I took a SELL trade on the break below the YEARLY PIVOT (Pink line), half out now and the rest floating .
Looks like it wants to go to 45ish at least, then possibly targets at 38 then 35..

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ptoftangency May 4, 2017 5:17pm | Post# 150839

{quote} That wasnt a bad trade. That was a little binary wager with hoom that I lost. Basically what's first 730 or 1040? This was a bad trade: "Short EU 1.0920 Stop 1.0980 TP1 1.0820 TP2 1.0520 May add if NY takes it higher." Yes everything has changed TAwise on my end with the break of 950. Not a huge shock, just wasnt seeing that pre NFP. FAwise (actually maybe this is TA too) a change in how early risk would clear occured, at least according to my idea of it. My view? I was busy putting down thoughts on NFP when I saw this. Maybe I'll just post...
Nice write-up. Appreciate it.

Got a question. Back on March 10th, we saw a major NFP overshoot and the EUR/USD rallied and continued the zigzag up to 1.086x. I realize at the time, Yellen confirmed the hike in advance for March 15th.

Since its clear that no FED hikes will take place until July or Sept., will this NFP be any different if it overshoots?

goosebone May 4, 2017 5:19pm | Post# 150840

Alright. Maybe I got it.

Short EU 1.0920 Stop 1.0980 TP1 1.0820 TP2 1.0520

This was the trade I took this morning after confirming the break of 1.091x yesterday close. Was it too close to market? That makes sense MT. But ST was my idea on the trade. Not too close for ST. Therein lies the fuck up.
So entering a mid term trade with short term risk (small boat) almost by accident because both MT and ST levels are in play here was the mistake. Not too close to market with ST levels isolated (fantasyland). Way too close to market (or moreover an imperfect area to enter MT requiring a much bigger boat if that was your plan) with MT in play and news in your face.

Now, I know a few tried to point that out to me. But I think I learn better when I gotta pay something for my mistakes.


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