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USD-Bear May 4, 2017 3:48am | Post# 150801

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still alive with my UK-100 shorts but they are playing hard ball
Breaking 7100 would be my first goal, otherwise 7340 for another try

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goosebone May 4, 2017 5:13am | Post# 150802

Short EU 1.0920 Stop 1.0980 TP1 1.0820 TP2 1.0520
May add if NY takes it higher.

longshot_nl May 4, 2017 6:10am | Post# 150803

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cadyen weekly. Bear target was met but i would like the bears to push a little more so a nice symmetrical inverted H&S pattern can form. {image}
Will try a short at the triangle to my long entry.
(if it gets there in time)

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goosebone May 4, 2017 7:27am | Post# 150804

More strong and inline numbers coming in from Europe this morn. Draghi to speak later on matters insignificant to markets so nothing expected to shake out there. Plenty of healthcare vote opinion buzz in the US to ignore.

TA levels in focus here are the obvious 1.095x<<-->>1.089x/88x. We will soon see what NY thinks about it.
NFP report is the only real point of interest left before the weekend unknowns. Because of that, market may react to Claims report (however vaguely related and subject to revision) if it prints a big over or under number.

gatorinla May 4, 2017 7:31am | Post# 150805

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hoping fed can hold off selling assets a while longer. atm eu at 0895.. it may provide R now.. we will c. {image}
s/o again 0905, its above 0895. not really a good thing for me. i re-entered s 0935. its still within the 0948 area and below. the usdx had that little retrace shown in last usdx chart. so either eu is going to break that R.. or the usdx is going to rise over its R. yest usdx broke some R and eu broke a little support. i still expect usdx to reach 101.52 at some point.. eu here near those highs and it looking bullish, is where things look the worst. not to say i am not full of shit.. the usdx did what i thought would be a minimal retrace.. after the little b/o. so with my eu risk being a s/o on a bullish b/o or reward being usdx 101.52.. i risked the pips.. in my favor yest ny closed below 0895. london doing it is best for me.. below 0914 is a start.
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gatorinla May 4, 2017 8:04am | Post# 150806

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if i can get a little vacuum (low pressure) between this leather chair and my ass cheeks. i should do ok. st -0914 closed below and london below 0895 is not a bad sign. and the best i could realistically hope far today. adr is on a leash, but its due for a run either in my favor or not.

if your long u should be pulling against me here..one of us will lose. the ball is above mine atm
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gatorinla May 4, 2017 8:13am | Post# 150807

std.. going to miss the action.. a turd or a golden egg for me later..

goosebone May 4, 2017 9:10am | Post# 150808

{quote} I guess you're talking about my entry when euro made a gap up and a rally to 1.090x ...at that time I said that a gap and full extension [which btw you asked me what does a full ext mean ] is a trigger in my books ...I unloaded it all prior to the election weekend [was a nice ride indeed ]. Tracking UJ mostly after that , risk on is paying well in the meantime. for the sake of the discussion I will choose a random Lmt buy this time against the crowd here if I may say both trades have same r:r , let's see how it pans out in the next...
Looks as if I owe you a beer too now. (get in line)

suntan May 4, 2017 10:06am | Post# 150809

Treasuries breaking down but dollar not following, not against the euro anyway.
Is this correlation broken now or can we expect this to be pre-empting a dollar move?

traderguy7 May 4, 2017 10:29am | Post# 150810

Treasuries breaking down but dollar not following, not against the euro anyway. Is this correlation broken now or can we expect this to be pre-empting a dollar move?
There seems to some big bank action going, they are pushing the EUR/USD up as far as they can before they drive it down for more profits before the French election.

Deitreider May 4, 2017 10:44am | Post# 150811

{quote} There seems to some big bank action going, they are pushing the EUR/USD up as far as they can before they drive it down for more profits before the French election.
And you know this how?

priceaction1 May 4, 2017 10:48am | Post# 150812

std.. going to miss the action.. a turd or a golden egg for me later..
nowI join short side too @1.0945

priceaction1 May 4, 2017 11:15am | Post# 150813

add @ 1.0942

Replicant May 4, 2017 11:16am | Post# 150814

{quote} There seems to some big bank action going, they are pushing the EUR/USD up as far as they can before they drive it down for more profits before the French election.
Large victory for Macron on Sunday is now a done deal and is fully priced in. We cleared yesterday evening the last potential pitfall for Macron : the television debate. Le Pen was just ridiculous to say the least ; even now in her own party, members are appalled and ashamed of her grotesque performance. Cac and Dax moving accordingly, and Euro visiting the top of the range. We are aligning to sell the news IMO.

goosebone May 4, 2017 11:18am | Post# 150815

averaged up a tad at 949. Thats all the eggs I'll be putting in this basket.

London roll at 1.094x. Bulls testing 1.096x atm. Lets see what they got.

anwaarkhan May 4, 2017 11:41am | Post# 150816

add @ 1.0942
I think it will touch 1.0955 , just curious

Fadhl May 4, 2017 11:51am | Post# 150817

{quote} I think it will touch 1.0955 , just curious
1.097 today (my wish) and depends on tomorrow NFP for extension to the upside.

ExForX May 4, 2017 11:52am | Post# 150818

Got stopped out as well on the short. I don't know about opening a new position... don't believe a selloff (sell the news) would happen if Macron wins. Why would that happen? Profit taking of the baked-in move? I don't know. Macron is EU positive, signals strength in eurozone. Sure it's baked in that he might win, but fundamentally is there really a reason to keep shorting? Who knows trump may have another tweet outburst that will push the dollar further down because he isn't happy about a strong dollar.

Pharm0r May 4, 2017 11:56am | Post# 150819

B. inline/marginally dovish: its a non event with just a muted continnuation to 1,097x via a small zig-zag flowAny comment and analysis welcomed
Nice call

Replicant May 4, 2017 12:16pm | Post# 150820

Got stopped out as well on the short. I don't know about opening a new position... don't believe a selloff (sell the news) would happen if Macron wins. Why would that happen? Profit taking of the baked-in move? I don't know. Macron is EU positive, signals strength in eurozone. Sure it's baked in that he might win, but fundamentally is there really a reason to keep shorting? Who knows trump may have another tweet outburst that will push the dollar further down because he isn't happy about a strong dollar.
In my books, Markets priced in Macrons victory with the leg 1.061x --> 1.097x. If you add to this, Current FA/Rates differential + June hike expectations + Brexit Risk + Mute ECB till at least June/July, I think nothing can justify to stay at this level anymore.


Le Pen/Melenchon : Open below 1,050x → 1,019x → 0,98x Melenchon/Fillon : Open below 1,061x → 1,050x → 1,034x Fillon/Le Pen: Open below 1,068x → 1,050x → 1,061x Macron/Melenchon 1,073x → 1,081x → 1,068x Macron/Le Pen 1,073x → 1,090x → 1,097x [checked]Macron/Fillon Open above 1,082x → 1,097x


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