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grimnokk Apr 23, 2013 12:26pm | Post# 6721

{quote} So you are telling me that an EA will allow you to take trades and not have to look at them while they are still open? You won't ever feel the urge to see what's going on, what's happening that is out of your control? I don't see how an EA can help you if you are not confident in what the indie is currently telling you (entry / exit), but more importantly, what your naked eye tells you. The ONLY benefit I see from using an EA, for myself, is to give me more sleep (maybe); period. I think seeing it as a way to improve your psyche is an extra...
In a way that is what I am saying. I'm afraid that I didn't explain myself very well. I was afraid that was going to happen. So lets try this again.

You are assuming that I perceive an EA as a holy grail. That's just not true. There can be no holy grail. I understand that. The only holy grail is the one that is between our two ears. We make the decisions and have to live with them.

I trust what the Indicator is telling me. I have no reason not to believe it at this point. (And I admit I have only been using this for two weeks right now. I have only ever traded this indicator because it makes sense to me. I have only traded for the last two weeks. So my opinion might be skewed or irrelevant here.) What I can say is that, FOR ME, setting my trades and letting a Trade manager (and yes I used EA in my first post, and I understand there is a difference here. This is where I used the wrong term) run my trades from there, does in fact make me feel better. Yes I wonder what is going on in my trades while they are running, but I don't look. I let the trade run and when the indicator send me a notification that my trade has closed, I go and look. Yes it might be a crutch to use a trade manager, but it is a crutch that I am willing to use at this point. I am still new to all this and still trying to learn everything. So by using a trade manager, it gives me a comfort feeling that I wont go in and adjust the S/L or set a trailing stop, or move my T/P, or whatever else I might do. The trade manager allows me to trade my plan and stick with it regardless of what the market is doing. If the trade closes in a loss, so be it. If it closes in a win, great. But I have traded my plan. Which is set my trade, place a 30 pip S/L and a 30 pip T/P target and forget it from there.

Going back and looking at the way the trade transpired is where I start second guessing my next trade. Wondering if I could put a Trailing stop on there, or move my T/P higher, or...... the list goes on. So far for the last two weeks I have not touched my settings. I plan on using these same setting for the next 5 1/2 months to prove out my settings. To prove that I can trade this way, that it is profitable.

Hope this helps to clear things up a little. I will let it go from here. We can move this to a PM if we want to discuss further as I think this might be getting off topic a little....

Jayf19 Apr 23, 2013 12:37pm | Post# 6722

{quote} Here is the interesting thing, I have to have my emotions to even enter a trade. All this talk about being an emotional robot in trading is marketing genious. The belief that I have to be an emotional robot is what keeps me looking for the holy grail. My emotions are intigral to my tenacity to keep going with an endeavor that causes me so much pain when done wrong. How can I seperate myself from my psychlogical nature? It is an experencial part of who I am - For me trading is not about overcoming my feelings, its about excepting the feelings...
Great post; to me, this summarizes what I mean by "removing emotion" from the trade, in a sense which one should not be driven by fear or greed or whatever emotion to dictate the way they trade.

Jayf19 Apr 23, 2013 12:46pm | Post# 6723

{quote} In a way that is what I am saying. I'm afraid that I didn't explain myself very well. I was afraid that was going to happen. So lets try this again. You are assuming that I perceive an EA as a holy grail. That's just not true. There can be no holy grail. I understand that. The only holy grail is the one that is between our two ears. We make the decisions and have to live with them. I trust what the Indicator is telling me. I have no reason not to believe it at this point. (And I admit I have only been using this for two weeks right now....
Makes much more sense

AltosTrader Apr 23, 2013 8:04pm | Post# 6724

That is exactly what FXH has been hammering in this thread the whole way through. Place the trade, a trade manager EA is a huge help, then leave it alone. If you can do that there are no emotional issues. Trust the stats, (assuming you have already got good ones ) you may lose the first breakout, you may win the first breakout. If you know your system will recover to the point of being able to trust it then it truly does become so easy and boring as FXH has been wont to say many times. Leave the emotion at the door, let the system work. So OK, it takes a while to see it like that. Easy for some not for others. We are all different. There are many paths to the top of the mountain

I use a trade manager because I am, some would say lazy, I say efficient, and cannot be bothered rushing to my computer to manually accomplish something the computer could have more easily done for me. Whats the point of making something more difficult when you can make it easy ?

If you look back you will see trade manager EA's in many of the posts, not just mine but many others also. It is the easiest way to do it.

oztrader79 Apr 23, 2013 9:06pm | Post# 6725

That is exactly what FXH has been hammering in this thread the whole way through. Place the trade, a trade manager EA is a huge help, then leave it alone. If you can do that there are no emotional issues. Trust the stats, (assuming you have already got good ones ) you may lose the first breakout, you may win the first breakout. If you know your system will recover to the point of being able to trust it then it truly does become so easy and boring as FXH has been wont to say many times. Leave the emotion at the door, let the system work. So OK, it...
Spot on

grimnokk Apr 23, 2013 9:45pm | Post# 6726

That is exactly what FXH has been hammering in this thread the whole way through. Place the trade, a trade manager EA is a huge help, then leave it alone. If you can do that there are no emotional issues. Trust the stats, (assuming you have already got good ones ) you may lose the first breakout, you may win the first breakout. If you know your system will recover to the point of being able to trust it then it truly does become so easy and boring as FXH has been wont to say many times. Leave the emotion at the door, let the system work. So OK, it...
Altos explained my sentiment much better than I did. He said exactly what I was trying to get across earlier.

Thanks Altos.

oztrader79 Apr 24, 2013 12:32am | Post# 6727

{quote} Altos explained my sentiment much better than I did. He said exactly what I was trying to get across earlier. Thanks Altos.
Keep at it, the perseverance is worth it.



Ben

AltosTrader Apr 24, 2013 12:46am | Post# 6728

Yes, I am loafing at home with three pending positions and one live on EJ. I pay no attention to the charts. I have a melodious alert which will resonate thru the house if a new CZ forms or a trade is entered, then I will look to see. For my own amusement I will look at an hourly chart and make a guess as to whether it will win or lose but it is not important. If it does not win on the Breakout it will pickup on a recovery. I am anti martingale and stress free. My stats are satisfactory at this time and I will post some of the charts as they win and I have posted some that did not win on first take.

oztrader79 Apr 24, 2013 2:01am | Post# 6729

Yes, I am loafing at home with three pending positions and one live on EJ. I pay no attention to the charts. I have a melodious alert which will resonate thru the house if a new CZ forms or a trade is entered, then I will look to see. For my own amusement I will look at an hourly chart and make a guess as to whether it will win or lose but it is not important. If it does not win on the Breakout it will pickup on a recovery. I am anti martingale and stress free. My stats are satisfactory at this time and I will post some of the charts as they win...
No I wont accept that, I want you pompously spouting your opinion as to which way the market will go based on your extensive knowledge, membership of ff, and vouches so far. If not I refuse to listen to you.... unless you offer me a chance to study under you for $10,000.





Ben

AltosTrader Apr 24, 2013 2:13am | Post# 6730

Just put the cheque in the mail Ben and I'll be with you shortly. 10k eh, sounds good.

oztrader79 Apr 24, 2013 2:28am | Post# 6731

Just put the cheque in the mail Ben and I'll be with you shortly. 10k eh, sounds good.
done!!!

you make me rich right?

Armacom Apr 24, 2013 4:13am | Post# 6732

{quote} The question of twiddling with settings has passed through my mind quite a few times, though not recently at all as confidence in SSBO has grown ...
Thank you HxTrader for your extremely well structured and clear response. What you say makes a lot of sense and it will help me for sure !

Happy trades

batemap Apr 24, 2013 9:56am | Post# 6733

2 Attachment(s)
Hi All

Before I start, sorry SP I running before I can crawl again, but when I see stuff I can't explain or doesn't make sense I like to ask questions, so that I can improve my understanding.

Well, although FxH said don't worry about Anti-Martingale for now because you need the EA to work out all the lot sizes, etc. I've been looking at Anti-Martingale.

Indi parameter Martingale = 0. From FxH's explanation of 7 Feb I have set the indi to Anti-Martingnale, with a multiplier of 0.8
Assuming I have 1 lot at stake then on the first trade I loss 40 pips (the indi shows this :-), next trade lot size is 1 * 0.8 = 0.8 and I loose ~ 30 pips and this equates to ~ 24 pips for a total loss now of 40 + 24 = 64 (but the indi shows 53.6 pips), next trade lot size is previous lot size 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.64 and the trades closes with a 40 pip profit and this equates to a profit of 25.6
So, from the above you can see that, if my maths is correct, I've lost 64 pips and gained 25.6 pips for a total loss of 38.4 pips. I would have expected the indi to close the trade out at least 100 pip gain and this would equate to 64 pip, which is a breakeven on the trade sequence.
Here's the chart - Martingale = 0Click to Enlarge

Name: gbpjpy-mart-0_rsz.jpg
Size: 113 KB

Indi parameter Martingale = 1. From FxH's explanation of 7 Feb I have set the indi to Martingnale, with a multiplier of 0.8
Assuming I have 1 lot at stake then on the first trade I loss 40 pips (the indi shows this :-), next trade lot size is 1 * 0.8 = 0.8 and I loose ~ 30 pips and this equates to ~ 24 pips for a total loss now of 40 + 24 = 64 (the indi shows 23.8 pips :-), next trade lot size is previous lot size 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.64 and the trades closes with a 40 pip profit and this equates to a profit of 25.6
So, from the above you can see that, if my maths is correct, I've lost 64 pips and gained 25.6 pips for a total loss of 38.4 pips.
Here's the chart - Martingale = 1Click to Enlarge

Name: gbpjpy-mart-1_rsz.jpg
Size: 112 KB

Using both of the indi settings the results are the same, problem who knows? BUT, both settings result in a net loss and this loss is the same in both circumstances.

My questions: -

  1. I've assumed that using Anti-Mart will result in at worst breakeven if not a trade sequence profit the same as Martingale would give us. Is this a correct assumption?
  2. Is there a bug in the indi associated with the Martingale parameter = 0, because figures when this = 1 appear mathematically correct ?
  3. If this indi is correct why bother taking any of the recovery trades? In the above trade sequence example, above, we recovery (almost) the loss from the breakout trade, but still loose the pips form the first recovery trade.


Thanks for reading this long post!

Paul


Jayf19 Apr 24, 2013 10:09am | Post# 6734

The MGale math works, learn to understand both variations using standard application (no fractions). Once you see how it performs, then you can start playing with fractions and understand what you are trying to accomplish.

I have made several posts explaining how they both work and how they can be applied.

EDIT : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...le#post6536305

Jayf19 Apr 24, 2013 10:14am | Post# 6735

The MGale math works, learn to understand both variations using standard application (no fractions). Once you see how it performs, then you can start playing with fractions and understand what you are trying to accomplish. I have made several posts explaining how they both work and how they can be applied.
Without going in detail, when using AntiMGale (0/1) vs MGale (standard x2); the actual difference starts appearing on the third trade. Both the breakout and first recovery will show the same values. The AMgale starts to decrease lots on the 3rd trade, while standard MGale keeps doing x2.

batemap Apr 24, 2013 10:36am | Post# 6736

{quote} Without going in detail, when using AntiMGale (0/1) vs MGale (standard x2); the actual difference starts appearing on the third trade. Both the breakout and first recovery will show the same values. The AMgale starts to decrease lots on the 3rd trade, while standard MGale keeps doing x2.
Hi Jay

Thanks for your reply.

I've been searching through your posts, but will have to do some more analysis before I fully understand this AntiM.

Cheers

Paul

Jayf19 Apr 24, 2013 10:37am | Post# 6737

If this indi is correct why bother taking any of the recovery trades? In the above trade sequence example, above, we recovery (almost) the loss from the breakout trade, but still loose the pips form the first recovery trade. Thanks for reading this long post! Paul
One last note..

The answer to this question lies to your individual risk tolerance / trading plan and money management.

Let's say for example that your settings show that you get to a 3rd recovery once every once in a while, you might not be willing to go all out and double up on what you have just lost; you may be more inclined to still trade it and attempt to recover (RECOVERY trade - hint hint) a portion of what has been lost; while others might not want to trade it at all.

Can't always have winners, but there are ways to minimize the losses while still having some risk involved.

forexvegan Apr 24, 2013 8:01pm | Post# 6738

1 Attachment(s)
Before I ask my question, please understand that I have read the whole thread and can not find the answer anywhere, maybe someone can direct me, or tell me as I have tried over and over to find the answer and play with the settings before asking. When trying to test the CZ's with different methods I am wondering what does this last number (see the pic) mean? Mine is usually 45 or sometimes 47 if I set my EMA to true. How does one get it to 13? I am trying to play with the indi more to see what all my options are. Please don't write anything bad towards me I am just asking a question and trying to learn, I have read the whole thread, and done the CZ's with no tools like our favorite person FXH has required. Many thanks. I know the only ones that change this are grimnokk and oztrader79. Any positive feedback would be appreciated. Looking forward to your replies.

Charles
Click to Enlarge

Name: 121212.jpg
Size: 213 KB

AltosTrader Apr 24, 2013 8:06pm | Post# 6739

ForexVegan - I am too actually.

That last line is all code for Xux99 to help with debugging peoples problems when they are not showing the three panels, in other words, all their settings. It has no effect on what the indi is doing. It is just giving Xux info. Description bu FXH in post 5371

oztrader79 Apr 24, 2013 8:10pm | Post# 6740

Before I ask my question, please understand that I have read the whole thread and can not find the answer anywhere, maybe someone can direct me, or tell me as I have tried over and over to find the answer and play with the settings before asking. When trying to test the CZ's with different methods I am wondering what does this last number (see the pic) mean? Mine is usually 45 or sometimes 47 if I set my EMA to true. How does one get it to 13? I am trying to play with the indi more to see what all my options are. Please don't write anything bad...
Hi Forexvegan,

It is the "auto reduce CZ" option, I generally have it set to false.

Cheers

Ben


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