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-   -   USDCAD trend reversal? (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/29394-usdcad-trend-reversal)

Vengeance Mar 9, 2010 7:06pm | Post# 3081

Hope this link comes up. From Bloomberg.com videos
"Mallaby says U.S. exports may suffer from Greece crisis" march 9
Should be amended to "...may suffer a little..."

Scarecru Mar 9, 2010 8:33pm | Post# 3082

Loonietek
 

Noting some bullish CAD comments from Fin. Minister Flaherty. Still a lot of CAD buyers out there and CAD banks are seeing Asian, Middle Eastern and Russian names stocking up.

Personally, I am (still) waiting for a break of 1.02 to get short and 1.03 to get long. Luckily I am patient!
YO Venge: on D TF is it gonna be a 3x bottom? (1.0222 Jan14 lo; 1.0204 '09 Oct 15 lo & today).

STO is o/s & slight heading up.

My think if 1.02 break down; then parity more probable than possible.
All the ema's are heading down. However, as my mentor, Red Green says:"Keep yer stick on the ice!"

Gonna "bottom feed" with some long scalps. Pip up the account.

Beaver still in up trend; so risk-appetite on the CAD (in my thinking, bearish for usd/cad).

Going to view FOTO's 10 y W thought on E/US now.

Vengeance Mar 9, 2010 9:08pm | Post# 3083

Ahh...good 'ol Red Green! Just full of words of wisdom! haha

Yeah it's shaping up to be a triple bottom, but with no event risk, really, until Thurs. and Fri. still lots of time for anything to happen. However, I expect things to start picking up tomorrow.

I also agree that a break of 1.02 will likely see this ~6 month range broken and likely parity would be the 'natural' support.

I'm still waiting to see how things play out, and hopefully I will be at the screen when it breaks lower or higher. Don't care which way, just outta this boring ass range!

Like you, looking to bottom feed if it retests the trend lows. Will use a tight stop, though. If I happen to get long and then stop gets hit, will look at shorting...

Scarecru Mar 9, 2010 9:30pm | Post# 3084

re: 10y W
 
Maybe someone else wants to take a look at the following. The Euro/Usd pair has been trading in an confined area for the last four weeks. If you go to the weekly/10 year chart you may find the same thing I did. There is no other pattern configuration as is being experienced now. This tight series of the Doji candle.

The inference is that central banks have been intervening steadily to stabilize the Euro at these levels. So if your trading has been getting subject to whipsaws, you might reconsider how to approach the market.

The other inference,...
AW CRAP! FOTO looked @ chart. It showed a lovely up trend wrt 200 ema- then suddenly, all the pretty colourful up & down candles were gone (exactly as you mentioned).

The blogs of late have been mentioning European M-Funders as a resort to save the Euro. Does this tie in with your macro views in any way?

Your final statement truly frightens me! Why?

foto Mar 10, 2010 6:30am | Post# 3085

Morning Scarecru, Vengeance.

The weekly chart was looked at because sometimes stepping back from all the noise can bring some clarity.

All the debt to be carried is still deflationary in both N. America and Europe

In China the debt is being sustained by the assumption of more debt. Jim Chanos claims research that showed that 60% of Chinas' GDP was construction related. If this is even halfway true at some point the loan structure will collapse and equity positions will be wiped out.

China may be a closed economy but to the working poor inflation is deadly as food and housing become unobtainable just the same. Inflation has a very big impact politicaly in China. The take that seems reasonable is that the Authorities are slowly cutting back on loan origination. But that there is wild speculation in real estate not going on, is a lot to accept.

Will just have to wait until something shows in the numbers that things are not allright.
The Aussie was pushed up in the face of a significant decline in home loans.Will see tonite what happens with the Kiwi. There is so little yield worldwide that anyone that shows some strength becomes the only store in town.

I still believe that contagion in Europe will stress the Euro. Problems of these magnitudes do not disappear by declaration. The longer the delay in currency adjustment the bigger the strain for recovery to take place in Spain, Portugal, Greece. Ireland is out of the limelight. Italy can make it if there is no more hidden problems in governmental debt. ( hard to believe) There must be more to the Euro then Germany and France.
Price action being the only way to pick up on direction. Any hard directional movement should be jumped upon. The rest of it is pretty meaningless. If the Euro is being sustained by C.B. intervention then that is revealing that the weakness in Eurozone is great.

The Americas? Equities look very toppy, can they survive normalization at these heights. Going to really need some data that a recovery in the private sector is actually occuring. To date the banks are loaned out with little capacity to grow credit. The outlook in my book is for some serious stagflation.

How to trade it, is the question. The market is not revealing many clues to date.

Maybe the next leg will come from the East rather then Europe. Am just waiting for direction like everyone else.

shr5 Mar 10, 2010 8:47am | Post# 3086

Morning Scarecru, Vengeance.

The weekly chart was looked at because sometimes stepping back from all the noise can bring some clarity.

All the debt to be carried is still deflationary in both N. America and Europe

In China the debt is being sustained by the assumption of more debt. Jim Chanos claims research that showed that 60% of Chinas' GDP was construction related. If this is even halfway true at some point the loan structure will collapse and equity positions will be wiped out.

China may be a closed economy but to the working poor...
looking @ daily pivots i have bought @ 1.0260 uptil 1.0270 with stops below 1.0220 till 1.0200 and no profit target....would let it go up till it can....lets see what happens....first try at it

Olu Mar 10, 2010 9:11am | Post# 3087

Conserevative
 
I am looking to get in long only after a daily close above 1.0325

shr5 Mar 10, 2010 9:12am | Post# 3088

I am looking to get in long only after a daily close above 1.0325
I haven't gone all out myself but your 1.0325 daily closing target seems reasonable.....hope we buy together around that level

wdevauld Mar 10, 2010 11:08am | Post# 3089

Where to Go From Here
 
1 Attachment(s)
The space between 1.02 and 1.03 has been frequently held onto reversals on long term and medium term trends. Although there is a multi month downward channel.
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Scarecru Mar 10, 2010 7:55pm | Post# 3090

Loonietek
 
The space between 1.02 and 1.03 has been frequently held onto reversals on long term and medium term trends. Although there is a multi month downward channel.
Attachment
Neat chart wdevauld:

One point that I noted re: 02 & 03 s/r levels was the slope & angle btn yer 55 & 144's. They gave a "heads up" on the further direction of $.

The more info that we have; they greater the probability of pips.

Cheers.

Scarecru Mar 10, 2010 8:21pm | Post# 3091

Venge: If you make any coin.........
 
OFFA THIS POST- I wanna 24 & poutine.

D chart: I be bearish. @ The Jan lo, there was bullish div on STO & MacD histo was indicating +ve div. Not so this time on either.

EMA's heading down.

" GIVE ME PARITY or GIVE ME STANLEY!"

Scarecru Mar 10, 2010 8:50pm | Post# 3092

HAPPY PIPPIN'
 
looking @ daily pivots i have bought @ 1.0260 uptil 1.0270 with stops below 1.0220 till 1.0200 and no profit target....would let it go up till it can....lets see what happens....first try at it
Evening: shr5 & Olu.

If you are looking long wait for the Mar9 hi to have a D candle close above.

If I be bottom feeding (quick scalps) I only trade in the direction of H MacD.

Read & re-read FOTO's & Venge's posts!!!!

The former gives you the future (the way things WILL eventually happen).
The latter gives insight from being in the financial business.

Good luck ( unfortunately, you can't get in on the parity or poutine wager).

Scarecru Mar 10, 2010 10:19pm | Post# 3093

RE: 10 yr Wly CHART
 
Evening FOTO : ambled over to this site today & noted a similarity in theme to your earlier post.

http://www.babypips.com/blogs/curren...ntually_g.html

I believe that it reflects your global view ( mine as well; but in my case,in a very uneducated capacity).

My tekkie stuff is based on the DUMB MONEY moves. These moves are fleeting (however, they allow me some pips).

My thoughts: the global economy is entering a new & different era.
The old Buy E/US; G/US & sell US/CHF; US/CAD (4 for 1) trades are passe'

Await the new rhythm to be established!

foto Mar 11, 2010 8:27am | Post# 3094

Hi Scarecru,
Took a look at that link. It always takes two to tango. The creation of the Euro is a bit more complicated as bear in mind it came during a period of peace and global growth. The rising tide lifted all the ships. So all participants were to benefit.

We now due to the debt crunch are in a period of the limited pie of globalization. So tensions arise and cultures collide.

Is the Euro doomed? Not necessarily but an adjustment in its value would ease the burden on the southern tier. That would mean that Northern Europe would face higher energy costs from a weaker Euro. Oil being priced in the USD. The strong Euro has sheltered industrial Europe and nations such as Germany would have to become more like Japan.

There will be the clash between the needs of North and South, it may be impossible to reconcile.

Unless the world comes up with cheaper or more efficent energy resources it will be a long sled. I think that Energy is the area that if actually addressed would fuel world growth again. The planet runs better on cheap abundant energy. Trade tensions would lessen and the burden on domestic populations would allow debt service to be accomodated without default.
It needn't be all fossil fuel either, but a concerted effort to increase non fossil fuel electric would go a long way.
If not then economic stagnation will follow or money supply will be jumped up via loan growth as China is doing now. Which is not sustainable in the long term.

The currency markets are the place were the thoughts of the world economies play out. It is always the tension between the two views whether inflation bias rules or financial stability rules. It seems we trade the areas of imbalance which provides for the movement of the pairs.

The current range bound environment results from this, frankly these are tough markets to trade, and seem directionless. When direction gets established long or short there will be a signifcant leg to ride.

Am seeing signs the Asian overheat will have something to do with it and am looking for some selling out of there. It just has not happened yet. Trees rarely grow to the sky.

MackS10 Mar 11, 2010 9:13am | Post# 3095

4H close achieved. Lets see if Daily can hold bullish momentum above 1.0300.

Cheers.

shahab8b Mar 11, 2010 9:53am | Post# 3096

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R at 1.0320 is the key
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foto Mar 11, 2010 10:30am | Post# 3097

Good to see a potential up candle today forming. I was beginning to think this pair could only go down.

end of day: Either this is reserve diversification by China or US dollar bears just keep selling chasing a presumed future interest rate imbalance with the U.S. Until it comes to an end, no sense thinking about an up move on the USD/CAD. What the FOMC announces next week may push this pair down to the .80 level taking out parity along the way.

Of course Bernanke could always shock the world and do something like take out the Q.E. supportive statement, implying it is not a forever situation. It is hard to imagine the Canadians putting up with Fed policy that leads to such a strong CAD as USD/CAD at .80 read.

bidie Mar 11, 2010 12:18pm | Post# 3098

Wingeeeding ding
 
R at 1.0320 is the key
Boy they really took it for a wingyding ride there-

100% retracement right back down to 1.0260 level-

Maybe they didn't see much resistance so they thought to go back down and buy some more at cheaper prices?

bivan Mar 11, 2010 12:46pm | Post# 3099

I' m waiting for the up side, but can't clearly this bullish.
Are you sure about it?
thank's Ivan

Olu Mar 11, 2010 1:16pm | Post# 3100

Frustrating wait
 
Will the usdcad close above 1.0320. we almost had it today but no back down again.

The thing is if you are waiting for a breakout at 1.0320 you tend not to trade the down moves there leaving the best trade of the day to escape


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