„DEFINITION of False Signal
In technical analysis, a false signalrefers to an indication of future price movements that gives an inaccurate picture of the economic reality.“
When I setup an TDI cross over alert for M15 for e.g and i get 10 alerts per day but market is still in consolidation and only moving 5 pips around each cross over I don’t see the reason why I should bother with such indicator.
I understand the fact it is not able to filter out the market condition or if there is real volatility at the time it makes its crosses and bounces. That’s why I don’t get the reason why people using it and not directly look at a naked chart if 9 out of 10 such signals not even produce a „now it’s worth the time looking at the chart“ situation.
The reports that I have read about the percentage of time a market is trending have been mostly examining only the daily time frame. The consensus puts trending in the range of about 20 to 35% of the time.
Hereīs something interesting i found on investopia.com
Trading trend with discipline can be extremely difficult. If the trader uses high leverage he or she leaves very little room to be wrong. Trading with very tight stops can often result in 10 or even 20 consecutive stop outs before the trader can find a trade with strong momentum and directionality.
True range traders don't care about direction. The underlying assumption of range trading is that no matter which way the currency travels, it will most likely return back to its point of origin. In fact, range traders bet on the possibility that prices will trade through the same levels many times, and the traders' goal is to harvest those oscillations for profit over and over again.
What i don't get is...
By the time a trend becomes a trend and you can see it visually you have already missed the move. Like wise consolidation is only apparent after it has moved between two definable points several times.
Now what does it helps me in case of this strategy to spot if just before my possible entry market was trending or consolidating?
yes, the market has been trading in tight range for many months. In the timeframe you trade, you need to know the average volatility and the best hour of the day to look for trade opportunities.
Big E trading style is aggressive reversal entries and not simple about TDI green cross red. He was trading with the Stochastics before he got to know CompassFX and Dean Malone' Traders Dynamic Index. His experience was based on the market conditions between 2006 and 2008 where the volatility of the EURUSD and GBPUSD were very different from today. If he had developed and tested for two years back then, his results were good but not today.
Look at EURUSD H1 realtime live market screen capture every hour without refreshing the chart.
Compare the two different version of the TDI on this chart below.
Study the price action first then look at the Stoch and TDI .
Thats why i am not sure yet if and how trading just one market on a lower time frame following such strategy could work.
It might be a good thing for day trading to do a currency strength analyse before starting the day to see the strongest and weakest currencies and then only decide to trade the strongest against the weakest.
But this would also lead to the result i would have to switch through different charts, maybe not every day but often. So i would still not learn how to trade a strategy in a consistent routine day in day out while learning the flow of that just one market at least for a year or so.
Maybe i need to trade a crypto currency for more average daily volatility here than forex at all. But those are manipulated highly i think so probably no reliable way trying to predict something here based on technical analyses
Thanks for the charts again, will look at it.
I know what you mean. It is very difficult to manually trade a single market just the EURUSD M15 8 hours every day.
I know of many 'false' TDI cross signals, cross signals which appears then disappears under certain market price conditions. I learned to pick only the best A+++ setups to trade yet the losses are more than winners. Initially I could achieve 45% winners and I improved to about 55%.
If you believe TDI is king and refuse to learn much more that what Big E had written in his 463 posts in this thread, you wont make it.
To the one whose beliefs are - " Keep It Simple" , "the TDI is king" , "the TDI is the heart of the method", etc. he has not made it to achieve consistency in the last 3 years.
Do Not trade just the TDI cross signals. First there must be a technical setup and the TDI signal is to pull the trigger. Both the Stochastics and TDI#25 must show the same signals. The Stochastics signal condition of a "TRUE REVERSAL" setup and this is how Big E will catch the HA candle #1 and #2 for his entry.
Watch those videos I posted link to these Swing High/Swing Low and How to spot a TRUE REVERSAL.
Trading multiple markets is a strategy in itself where I leverage on. I stopped trading single market because it does not fit my business strategy.
but the OP did not always use his TDI for exits.
read all his posts and study his charts carefully, pay attention to details and you will learn much more.
Entry and Exit:
keywords: "aggressive" , "conservative", also "conserative" (typo) see below,
YES. I have learned, practiced in live market and have mastered the 5-Method. Post#647 is simple for me.
When wanting to and taking clean trades based on price action + momentum is a breeze.
Post#2617 link below.
Nice FO close , I look at and compare the TDI#25 green line P-Slope with its C-Slope for the best 'signal' for every pair.
The HA candles of the higher timeframes is also of good use at one glance.
TMS Monitor Jan29 H1
LO candle closed and looking at the TMS Monitor, I can tell that GBPUSD and GBPJPy TDI green line hook back.
EURUSD and EURJPY still look good for sell positions.
I know I asked this in the past again but canít find it anymore.
What is the reason the yellow line and bollinger bands are removed in this strategy?
I ask so because in most other strategies around the TDI those playing an important role and may also help to filter out possible trades of low probability?
most recent post on this TDI topic:
too many lines on his chart were 'too busy' for the OP...
when you are trading only one market - EURUSD M15, you may want to use the full version of the TDI .
The Volatility Band has a few nice features, one of the feature is to use the VB for breakout after a narrow range.
See the old thread:
another feature which I used a lot in the past when I was day-trading,
1) simply use the RS(13) and add two moving averages to it - a EMA2 and a SMA7
2) or simply use a RSI(3) with its 50-level.
Below two examples - EURUSD M15 and EURAUD M15
I think EURAUD would be another pair to consider for single market day-trading.
compare the hourly volatility of the two pairs and also compare their pip $value.
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