USD - Something to Think About
From: Down River Trading(if you donīt wanna this text here, tell me and I will remove it)
Let's talkabout it !
May 1, 2007
Here are a few of my relevant predictions for the next serveral years
very interesting post. definitely lots of valid points to ponder. i've been having trouble with my words lately so forgive me if i ramble and hope i express my thoughts properly.
The obvious and most easiest and understandable opinion to have is to say that nothing can ever kill the US dollar. It won't happen, it can't happen, too many investors, too many rely on the dollar. etc, etc.
I agree with all those bullish dollar sentiments, however what I don't know and what I'll try to explain is the "x factor". Being I am a typical but non typical conspiracy theorist, your questions brings to mind all those crazy conspiracy theories. The thing, the movement, the event, the plot, the evolution, that can cause the dollar to be dissolved. That is the "x factor" the risk of any of those theories to be true is what really moves the market. Some would say that there is a plot by "those who be" or the Bilderbergs to bring the one world government and the Amero. You might even hear that the reason gold is valued as is because The Church owns the majority of it. Cable is at two dollars as a favor to the government for their support?
There are many, many factors that creates the doubt in a currency strength or movement, but world peace I have to admit is the best idea yet.
All markets reverse or change direction based on different time frames and yes it's very possible to see gold devalue dramatically and the dollar get stronger but when and for how long?
is there any guarantee that there won't be wars, terrorism, disaster etc to move the markets? Nope, and there certainly no guarantee that there isn't a group trying to implement the Amero either.
ultimately the markets move in its favored direction to serve "the man"
so rich get richer and richest stay being the richest.
I seriously hope the OP didnt spend too much time writing this up. While I agree with you on some points, I disagree on many more. Only time will tell I guess.
Lets keep this discussion going.
Thought provoking stuff there....
A thought on house prices....
The price of houses must be related to poulation density, supply and demmand and all that jazz.
The UK has an area of 244,820 KM2 and 61,000,000 people, or...
The USA has an area of 9,836.630 KM2 and 302,000,000 people, or...
So the UK has 8 times the population density of the USA.
The average UK house price is Ģ185,000 ish and Ģ140,000 in th USA,
a ratio of 1:1.32 ish.
Does this mean that a UK house should cost Ģ1,480,000...
Or a US house Ģ17.500...
Oh well, maybe not, just thinking aloud!
This looks very interesting! Some points are right, but others are more like .
I think a good debate about the true value USD should be interesting.
The point about the USA winning the world cup. That is just not going to happen, absolutely not, no way. Although I would like to see them do it, seen as England aren't either.
2004 was the tax incentive repatriation year for the US. The roaring 20's was a case of the banks flooding the ecomony with paper money, then in 29 calling in all loans. Its a repeat. ? is where are we now? 27?28?29?ouch.There is an old saying, 'who owns the gold makes the rules'. Gold has been a quality store of wealth since King Soloman. All fiat currency become valueless, its just a matter of time. History is the key to the future.
Bottomline is, i concur with the above statement. China for all its promise do not have they maturity to lead the world economy....yet.
And if those oil reserves empty themselves in time to come, i wouldnt wanna be alive already. Anyway the US and other nations has already had the insight to look forward and agressively started researching on biofuel.
Anyway, i have no views on the long term prospects.
From what i can really see is that the current US weakness is induced. The world market has been exponentially growing to a level that they are almost rivalling the US, which reasons the dollar decline even on a bullish state. Abt US being a market leader, i believe till today, they are still very influential (will be for a very long time) and whats note worthy is emerging nations like China and India will have too look back to the US for commodities like oil this will induce further trade growth and force the Chinese to raise prices...im sure the US and other nations will not wanna sell the commodity cheap anymore due to low reserves and high demand.
I.E. USD should correct...no it must correct.
I personally have about 75-90% of my money in USD inspite of the fact that im in Philippines. Having said that, my money depreciated by as much as 5% last April - all because PHP appreciated by that much against USD. Thats one MAIN reason for me to be bullish USD.
Secondly, Im bullish USD because, USD is at a low right now. Daily MACD, Stochastic all showing top heavy for EURUSD, GBPUSD. But the numbers you present are way too far fetched. I sure WISH they would be true but honestly?
Next several years? Or next several generations?
I'll keep a bookmark of this page and let 10 generations of my decendants (3 centuries later) keep an eyefull watch of it.
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