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-   -   Order Flow - Achieving the mindset (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=277925)

triger88990 Apr 25, 2011 4:13am | Post# 1441

I was thinking about Silver and the $50 level and possible order flow. I listened to Bob Chapman and he made a point that the average investor in the 1980's was 55 years old. So 40 years later these people are probably dead and if they were alive would they really be trying to get out of their silver positions 40 years later?

I guess the point is that there really isn't any meaningful resistance / order flow at the old silver high of $50 from 1980 to stop price. It was mentioned that sure, you'll have profit taking at the psychological level....

Silver will definitely reach new highs. As I have said, the US dollar is in serious trouble, and will be debased a great deal in the future.The bull market in silver has a long way to go, but don't expect to go straight up or straight down nothing goes like that, So, there is nothing unusual about corrections.

Previous bull markets in commodities have lasted 15 or 20 years. This one is going to last at least that long if not longer, and we are only at half way the distance.

Also if you go back to any bull commodities market you'll see there's about a 40% range between the top and the bottom. They always have and they always will. So instead of trying to fight it I think is much more better to go in the direction of line of least resistance, just speaking from my own experience, plain and simple.

From my own experience when Silver will reach 50$ for the first time,the price will not stop at the even figure but it will push very hard to the upside a good deal higher, I have the history of such movements to guide me.

The same goes for gold,eventually gold will be a couple of thousand dollars an ounce, and probably much higher, as currencies become more debased, who knows how high.

Man, I'm the only one who dosen't feel so great when market is "almost close" due to holidays, still need to wait for tuesday to resume trading


all the best!

Carnegie Apr 25, 2011 1:35pm | Post# 1442

So be it..

Jimmy Jones Apr 26, 2011 6:51pm | Post# 1443

I'm watching T&S of CME eu futures, I am having some interesting thoughts about the sales being posted and the effect on price (and liquidity), but I can get a clear thought in my head! I feel like something is speaking to me, but having a hard time formulating it in my mind.

Like when a bunch of big buy prints come through (multiple contracts) but price does not move that much, but then multiple single contract shorts come through and seem to have a bigger effect on price then the huge multi contract buys did.

Argh, it's right on the tip of my brain I feel like...

Carnegie Apr 27, 2011 1:14pm | Post# 1444

What up lads?

Seems as if I am blocked from the other thread (haha?) but anyway who cares right.

I am currently thinking very hard just about the market itself, no systems no nothing. I.e. what drives the market, trends, participants etc and I know many people has said it before me but.. reminiscences really is one hell of a book, actually explains what Darkstar talks about very often regarding trend and participants, so I highly recommend that book really.

I am thinking about reading up on bonds and such more, as I think the yield-stuff is something I really need to understand.

Take care all and hope youre having a great vacation!
BTW Dark are you alive? I have another one for you..

Jimmy Jones Apr 27, 2011 1:49pm | Post# 1445

What up lads?

Seems as if I am blocked from the other thread (haha?) but anyway who cares right.

I am currently thinking very hard just about the market itself, no systems no nothing. I.e. what drives the market, trends, participants etc and I know many people has said it before me but.. reminiscences really is one hell of a book, actually explains what Darkstar talks about very often regarding trend and participants, so I highly recommend that book really.

I am thinking about reading up on bonds and such more, as I think the yield-stuff...
I read that book a few years ago, but I think it's time for another read. Was going through TwotD for the third time but I think all take a break and switch to RoaSO.

I posted about watching the tape last night, man I feel like it's making a tad bit more sense then when I had looked at it in the past, but I feel like there is still something in my mindset that is blocking me from really seeing and understanding what is going on with the tape. Like I'm looking through a frosty window and can kinda of make out whats on the other side.

Carnegie Apr 27, 2011 1:56pm | Post# 1446

I read that book a few years ago, but I think it's time for another read. Was going through TwotD for the third time but I think all take a break and switch to RoaSO.

I posted about watching the tape last night, man I feel like it's making a tad bit more sense then when I had looked at it in the past, but I feel like there is still something in my mindset that is blocking me from really seeing and understanding what is going on with the tape. Like I'm looking through a frosty window and can kinda of make out whats on the other side.
Hey jimmy,

Which book is TwotD? Yes this was the first time I read ROASO, I'll probably read it 5-10 times more (no joke). I am thinking about making it into chapters and writing down ideas about each chapter.

Anyway I spent some time looking at the tipe for an extremely short period (a week or so) and believe me there is nothing to deduct from the tape as shit is being added and removed in the speed of light. Also you will notice many counter-intuitive stuff (imbalance - still moves in other favor).. look back at this thread, I think it was in this one I was asking a couple of questions on how to read the tape and Adal filled me up on the dynamics of it, it isnt traceable with the human eye unfortunately (more or less) because it moves so god damn fast.
But maybe you have found something there, try it and see how it works..

Take care Jimmy

relyt Apr 27, 2011 2:15pm | Post# 1447

Which book is TwotD?
I think it's "The Way of the Dollar"

Adal Apr 27, 2011 4:52pm | Post# 1448

Anyway I spent some time looking at the tipe for an extremely short period (a week or so) and believe me there is nothing to deduct from the tape as shit is being added and removed in the speed of light. Also you will notice many counter-intuitive stuff (imbalance - still moves in other favor).. look back at this thread, I think it was in this one I was asking a couple of questions on how to read the tape and Adal filled me up on the dynamics of it, it isnt traceable with the human eye unfortunately (more or less) because it moves so god damn fast....
You have no chance scalping M5 or lower where you go head to head with the machines. They will skin you.

At the same time there is an excellent opportunity now in betting on a breach of 1.5 in EUR/USD. Experience comes into play in knowing how to do this so that you are not mopped up if this does not happen eventually or if the road there is more complicated (visiting 1.44 before for example). My technical and behavioral analysis got me in at 1.45, so it's a low risk trade for me now. In fact, I will exit slightly before 1.5, no need to take chances at this important level. Now it's complicated to enter this trade, but still possible (but the size should be small). The fact that 2/3 of retail are short EUR/USD now is encouraging. As always, fighting a good trend.

Jimmy Jones Apr 27, 2011 6:51pm | Post# 1449

You have no chance scalping M5 or lower where you go head to head with the machines. They will skin you.

At the same time there is an excellent opportunity now in betting on a breach of 1.5 in EUR/USD. Experience comes into play in knowing how to do this so that you are not mopped up if this does not happen eventually or if the road there is more complicated (visiting 1.44 before for example). My technical and behavioral analysis got me in at 1.45, so it's a low risk trade for me now. In fact, I will exit slightly before 1.5, no need to take...
I don't think I ever mentioned scalping on the 5m. I was watching the time and sales as it approached what was an area of supply on the weekly chart. All I was doing was watching the orders that came through at that level.

Monroe Apr 27, 2011 7:20pm | Post# 1450

I don't think I ever mentioned scalping on the 5m. I was watching the time and sales as it approached what was an area of supply on the weekly chart. All I was doing was watching the orders that came through at that level.
I like watching 5/1 minute charts around the area's depending on the volatility.

Scotty B Apr 27, 2011 9:19pm | Post# 1451

You have no chance scalping M5 or lower where you go head to head with the machines. They will skin you.

At the same time there is an excellent opportunity now in betting on a breach of 1.5 in EUR/USD. Experience comes into play in knowing how to do this so that you are not mopped up if this does not happen eventually or if the road there is more complicated (visiting 1.44 before for example). My technical and behavioral analysis got me in at 1.45, so it's a low risk trade for me now. In fact, I will exit slightly before 1.5, no need to take chances...
The river will carry you, pardon the pun...

Scotty B Apr 27, 2011 9:23pm | Post# 1452

I don't think I ever mentioned scalping on the 5m. I was watching the time and sales as it approached what was an area of supply on the weekly chart. All I was doing was watching the orders that came through at that level.
watch a one tick chart with volume on the bottom. Much easier than watching the tape. It's quite exciting until you realize your only hope of trading observed patterns and market behavior is with a robot. I got real excited about this until I realized that the river and leverage were really all I needed to sail the seas.

Scotty B Apr 27, 2011 9:37pm | Post# 1453

3 Attachment(s)
Here, check these out....Pretty cool stuff, but totally un-needed. If it was do you think I'd share it? This data was costing me $180/month. You really don't need it. Like I said you can make it complicated and technical (see below) or you can get some arm floats and jump in the magical river of liquidity.

the high quality bmp images would not upload, I had to make them jpegs. Hopefully you kids can see these clearly.
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Scotty B Apr 27, 2011 9:47pm | Post# 1454

Some quick background..A tick in the real trading world, and or a tick chart is basically a transaction chart. See a tick? It's a trade, a buyer and seller have been matched. Sometimes lots of contracts change hands at once, these orders shock the market for 50-100 pips sometimes. This is why I always tried explaining that it doesn't take much volume to turn a market around. What is a measly 50 contracts in the scheme of things? Well, if you know that the average trade size is only one or two contracts and then all of a sudden 50-100-200 contracts rattle off, you know who is trading. Often time it's a big player just showing his hand. Why? Because his robots already bought his real order and he's done. You can also just look at the "shape" of the volume. If you see lots of 5-10 contracts fire off micro seconds apart, you can see it's a robot. Still, knowing this I can honestly say one needn't make it this complicated. You can game the market or just trade it. It's a bit of a jump, but it's worth it.

Jimmy Jones Apr 27, 2011 10:00pm | Post# 1455

Scotty B,

I want to reply but not sure what to say

I am paying for cme iqfeed right now. You say I don't need it, and maybe deep down I know your right, but cmon, just the oanda charts is all you guys look at? No volume, no t&s, no dom, just plain old sometimes slow java oanda charts?

I have a long way to go to get the mindset you have right now...

Scotty B Apr 27, 2011 10:10pm | Post# 1456

Scotty B,

I want to reply but not sure what to say


I am paying for cme iqfeed right now. You say I don't need it, and maybe deep down I know your right, but cmon, just the oanda charts is all you guys look at? No volume, no t&s, no dom, just plain old sometimes slow java oanda charts?
No charts at all...I used to scratch my head about what no chart trading meant, which led me to the very screen shots you are looking at. Now all I use is a simple spreadsheet. I plan on continuing to learn programming to make a prettier interface but my trading decisions are quite simple. There are basically three "filters" I put currency pairs through. Those that pass the three tests are traded. There are lots of trading opportunities out there, I stick to the ones that best balance risk and return. Boring, I know, but profitable while I sleep and I save $180/month.

Jimmy Jones Apr 27, 2011 11:22pm | Post# 1457

No charts at all...I used to scratch my head about what no chart trading meant, which led me to the very screen shots you are looking at. Now all I use is a simple spreadsheet. I plan on continuing to learn programming to make a prettier interface but my trading decisions are quite simple. There are basically three "filters" I put currency pairs through. Those that pass the three tests are traded. There are lots of trading opportunities out there, I stick to the ones that best balance risk and return. Boring, I know, but profitable while I sleep...
So you have a spreadsheet, you say your not paying for a data feed, so you must be getting those pieces of data either from a free delayed source, or range info. Or neither. Or both.

Something to think about for the next few days. Thats a good bit of info there, helps me correct my course. Thanks.

Scotty B Apr 27, 2011 11:31pm | Post# 1458

So you have a spreadsheet, you say your not paying for a data feed, so you must be getting those pieces of data either from a free delayed source, or range info. Or neither. Or both.

Something to think about for the next few days. Thats a good bit of info there, helps me correct my course. Thanks.
I pay about as much attention to price data as adal mentioned in his last couple posts. Keep it painfully simple.

Jimmy Jones Apr 27, 2011 11:51pm | Post# 1459

I pay about as much attention to price data as adal mentioned in his last couple posts. Keep it painfully simple.
Adal mentioned retail postions. I took a look at Oanda and noticed 65% of the open positions are shorts.

At any rate I need to step away and try to clear my mind and reset the thinking 'palette'. A lot of crap rolling around in my head that might just be taking up space.

Nervousone Apr 28, 2011 2:20am | Post# 1460

I'm really not sure how to organize this thought but,


People want to put their money where they receive a good yield from their investment. So that produces order flow. Do people figure what a good yield is from sentiment? How do they figure out the sentiment? Are their more black and white ways to find a better yield? If so what are they?


With all of the doom and gloom for the U.S. dollar I would have to assume that its going to continue to decline. No one would want it for the lack of yield so that would keep it from having a good amount of orderflow into the dollar? Am I right in thinking this?

Who knows how much sense this makes, just worked a 10 hour shift its 2 30am and I'm beat.


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