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michymx Apr 10, 2019 5:30am | Post# 1001

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Hello everyone!
Only now I've discovered this thread.. I'm a big fan of AUDNZD..

I've started to sell a little bit too early )) but I'm sure that I'm not the only one LOL
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Ziko9o8 Apr 10, 2019 5:56pm | Post# 1002

Hello everyone! Only now I've discovered this thread.. I'm a big fan of AUDNZD.. I've started to sell a little bit too early )) but I'm sure that I'm not the only one LOL {image}
- Hi there,

- May be Audnzd drops, may be not. But you should know that some investment banks raise there forecast to 1.09 and 1.13

- For the downside, I think 1.05 will hold

michymx Apr 11, 2019 4:26am | Post# 1003

{quote} - Hi there, - May be Audnzd drops, may be not. But you should know that some investment banks raise there forecast to 1.09 and 1.13 - For the downside, I think 1.05 will hold
Hello!

I will close on the first decent Pullback. Of course my first entrance was not correct but.... I've been trading this pair since 2009 with great success. I will never be relaxed but I always trust my study, my MM and analisys, not the sentiment of "investment banks".
I won't believe that someone trades on banks forecasts ..
Of course the price has to go up much and much more from here, but for sure it will not be today. Neither tomorrow

I don't agree with you about the 1,05 support. I can't bellieve that the cross will go to 1,10 without testing again 1,04/1,03.
Anyway I will not wait for this test (that maybe never will come..), as I was telling before I will close on the first retracement.
and 13 days without a retracement are veeeery much, especially for this cross....

Ziko9o8 Apr 16, 2019 8:00pm | Post# 1004

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Next 1.08

- I think you could join us @1.065 may be 1.063
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ChristinaL Apr 17, 2019 4:03am | Post# 1005

Next 1.08 - I think you could join us @1.065 may be 1.063 {image}
I am also watching AUD at the moment, good one to watch. Interested to see how your trades come out

Ziko9o8 Apr 17, 2019 8:15am | Post# 1006

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{quote} I am also watching AUD at the moment, good one to watch. Interested to see how your trades come out
- After all this years, I've only a 50-50 percent chance of success.

- I haven't increased my chances of winning more than this.(like everyone your are going to see)

- I made a lot of mistakes, the most fatal one is focusing on technical analysis. Instead I should master fundamental analysis first and apply to it whatever of technical knowledge I have.

- Remember I didn't mention a stop loss level, I leave it to your risk appetite whether you believe in your trades or not.

- I think tomorrow's Australian unemployment change could give us those levels 1.065 or 1.063
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michymx Apr 17, 2019 11:24am | Post# 1007

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{quote} I think tomorrow's Australian unemployment change could give us those levels 1.065 or 1.063 {image}
Hello! I hope so I'm still short, I've reduced the position size with great loss, my break even is now 1.061
In my personal opinion AUD is overperforming, and the "correlation" between aud and nzd (better to call it similarity in movements) was historically low in the last weeks (that's the cause of my bad trade I suppose)

That's the "correlation" that I mean, see the CCFP indicator below. In the last year is the first time that this two currencies are not moving in the same way. Of course they run always at different speeds, but the direction was always almost the same. After a very positive two years trading this pair it's my the first great loss. But...no one knows wich surprise can give us the forex market losses are part of the game.
Anyway, @Ziko9o8
:clap for your trades!
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Ziko9o8 Apr 17, 2019 3:49pm | Post# 1008

{quote} In the last year is the first time that this two currencies are not moving in the same way.
- US-China trade wars, this what made the difference in direction between AUD & NZD. Cause a trade war between US & China affects AUD more than NZD because the Chinese depend on Australia' mines.

Firstfx Apr 18, 2019 9:29am | Post# 1009

Been long since since Mar 25 2019 at 1.03015 with a small position. Was hoping to buy more under that but it never really occurred. So far plan is to ride this uptrend until it reverses.

omid_zoti Apr 25, 2019 4:41am | Post# 1010

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sell
Good Luck
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Firstfx Apr 26, 2019 9:54am | Post# 1011

sell Good Luck {image}
Agreed. Position sold yesterday and waiting for rebuy. Made a decent 280 pips profit.

pancarjack May 1, 2019 8:23am | Post# 1012

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<p style="width: 1024px; height: 1px;">my idea is going long on this pair</p>
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Yeoman May 6, 2019 11:06am | Post# 1013

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This may be my first post on this thread so hello to all you AZ Traders . Expectation is for the RBA to cut its rate while the New Zealand Bank holds. If that plays out, then I think we can expect a sell-off here which would suit me just fine right now as you can see. Starting to feel like I'm going to have to buy flowers and an anniversary card for this one Cheers
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Yeoman May 15, 2019 9:27pm | Post# 1014

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2 minutes before the news I'm still short on this
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Yeoman May 16, 2019 1:39pm | Post# 1015

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Finally! position closed this morning back in the black at 1:0525 glad I didn't hold out for 1.05 which was my recovery Target. The touch on the s61 pivot & reaching for the s3 BB helped me rethink that
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shyean May 21, 2019 7:42am | Post# 1016

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Hello fellow traders,

H1 chart, bullish view to above cluster.

Thanks

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andoseg2 Jun 13, 2019 11:23am | Post# 1017

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Aud/Nzd
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Ayax.TSS Jul 8, 2019 12:03am | Post# 1018

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#AUDNZD / Weekly & Daily / Two IdeasAttachment 3380063Attachment 3380065
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shyean Jul 9, 2019 11:21pm | Post# 1019

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Hello fellow traders,

Bullish view on h4.

Thanks

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Neil0163 Jul 10, 2019 1:49am | Post# 1020

Hello fellow traders, Bullish view on h4. Thanks {image}
I'm a keen seller lol

Neil0163 Jul 10, 2019 2:53am | Post# 1021

Hello fellow traders, Bullish view on h4. Thanks {image}
I'm a keen seller lol

Ayax.TSS Jul 29, 2019 12:08am | Post# 1022

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Ayax.TSS Sep 24, 2019 3:03am | Post# 1023

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Ziko9o8 Sep 25, 2019 4:21am | Post# 1024

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- Going to close short @ 1.0680 & 1.0630

- Looking to sell again @ 1.0844
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rosspetX Oct 9, 2019 2:36pm | Post# 1025

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Rarely trade this pair but it helps me position trades on the other AUD and NZD pairs. This is what my eyes are seeing and therefore I am targeting AUD pairs to go UP in the next 3-5 days (not tonight Oct. 9 - Oct. 10). Needs to go down first, maybe until Oct. 10 morning and then gently start moving UP.

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Ayax.TSS Nov 20, 2019 9:48am | Post# 1026

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tiborf71 Nov 21, 2019 5:03am | Post# 1027

I'm optimistic.
I bought. 1.05987

vincentprice Nov 29, 2019 6:59am | Post# 1028

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On the 13th of Nov RBNZ took the market by surprise by not cutting interest rates from 1.0% to 0.75%.

0.75% had been priced into the NZD and subsequently the pair is re-pricing.

It is clear on the daily chart that this AUD/NZD has been in a strong downtrend since the 13th of Nov announcement.

There have been no significant pullbacks on the daily chart at any support levels, buying into this pair right now IMO is far more risky than selling into it. On the daily chart below the next significant support zone is delineated at 1.0455. I would not consider taking a position trade at this level, but rather see it as a final target area for shorting into this pair on the current downtrend.

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There are plenty of opportunities to enter short on pullbacks on the 1h / 15 min.

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vincentprice Dec 4, 2019 5:34am | Post# 1029

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On the 13th of Nov RBNZ took the market by surprise by not cutting interest rates from 1.0% to 0.75%. 0.75% had been priced into the NZD and subsequently the pair is re-pricing. It is clear on the daily chart that this AUD/NZD has been in a strong downtrend since the 13th of Nov announcement. There have been no significant pullbacks on the daily chart at any support levels, buying into this pair right now IMO is far more risky than selling into it. On the daily chart below the next significant support zone is delineated at 1.0455. I would not consider...
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AUD/NZD is now approaching 1.0455

It is looking increasingly likely that a 30 - 50 pip bounce will happen from this area as a short term scalp.

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Ayax.TSS Dec 29, 2019 1:45pm | Post# 1030

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RockDove Jan 6, 2020 11:37pm | Post# 1031

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What may be going on with AUD/NZD.

The big four banks in Australia, were told circa October, November of 2019 that they would need to hold more capital in reserves, the currency would need to be held in New Zealand Dollars.

Here is an article related to this if you wish to get the gist https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-...aland/11768464

Here is a reference chart, 4 hour AUD/NZD. The key movement is at the RED dashed vertical line. Which is around the time that these articles started to show up
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The Royal Commission into Misconduct in Banking happened between 2017 - 2019 which saw changes to some of the rules which is beyond my payroll or understanding. I'm a small time trader and not much of an economist, so if someone is able to drop some knowledge bombs to shed some clarity that would be nice.

Though this new capital requirement does not seem to have anything to do with the Royal Commission inquiry, the reasons are clear, it's related to protecting the banks against a big financial downturn, a sort of protective pre-emptive defensive move just in case. So this recent strength in the New Zealand Dollar could be the banks topping up their coffers to meet the new reserve requirements, how far down that road they are is anybodies guess.

The big question is, are the banks finished buying up their reserves.

Addition information - In the article above it mentions that "analysts" believe they should not need to cut dividends to fund this however ANZ bank cleary reduced their franking to 70 which is a big change from the normal 100, could it be related, a sneaky move to buy up those NZ Dollars by cutting dividends, which all happened around the same time.
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prashfx Jan 7, 2020 4:02am | Post# 1032

[quote=RockDove;12690391]What may be going on with AUD/NZD. The big four banks in Australia, were told circa October, November of 2019 that they would need to hold more capital in reserves, the currency would need to be held in New Zealand Dollars. Here is an article related to this if you wish to get the gist https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-...aland/11768464 Here is a reference chart, 4 hour AUD/NZD. The key movement is at the RED dashed vertical line. Which is around the time that these articles started to show up {image} The Royal Commission into Misconduct in Banking happened between 2017 - 2019 which saw changes to some of the rules which is beyond my payroll or understanding. I'm a small time trader and not much of an economist, so if someone is able to drop some knowledge bombs to shed some clarity that would be nice. Though this new capital requirement does not seem to have anything to do with the Royal Commission inquiry, the reasons are clear, it's related to protecting the banks against a big financial downturn, a sort of protective pre-emptive defensive move just in case. So this recent strength in the New Zealand Dollar could be the banks topping up their coffers to meet the new reserve requirements, how far down that road they are is anybodies guess. The big question is, are the banks finished buying up their reserves. Addition information - In the article above it mentions that "analysts" believe they should not need to cut dividends to fund this however ANZ bank cleary reduced their franking to 70 which is a big change from the normal 100, could it be related, a sneaky move to buy up those NZ Dollars by cutting dividends, which all happened around the same time. {image}[/qu

do we have any imp news in calendar that can bottom out AN around 1.03? i am looking to buy it but only if daily close gives 1.0440+ ..

RockDove Jan 7, 2020 7:53am | Post# 1033

do we have any imp news in calendar that can bottom out AN around 1.03? i am looking to buy it but only if daily close gives 1.0440+

Tomorrow we have Australian Import / Export data, trade balance + Chinese CPI data, then further in the week we have a lot of US data.

As for the direction AN, it's really hard to tell where it will turn, we are at the lowest point since mid last year and still have a bit to go to take that out. Looking for positive data to give both currencies a boost. Could be a good time to take some small long positions and scale in slowly when it looks convincing.

At least with my previous post it will give traders some caution to know that banks have been instructed to buy up New Zealand dollars. I have no idea how far down this buying will push this pair down.

prashfx Jan 7, 2020 8:11am | Post# 1034

{quote} Tomorrow we have Australian Import / Export data, trade balance + Chinese CPI data, then further in the week we have a lot of US data. As for the direction AN, it's really hard to tell where it will turn, we are at the lowest point since mid last year and still have a bit to go to take that out. Looking for positive data to give both currencies a boost. Could be a good time to take some small long positions and scale in slowly when it looks convincing. At least with my previous post it will give traders some caution to know that banks have...
tks buddy for the helpful info. usually if AN reverses with a central bank event .. like last time around 1.03 when mkt deemed RBNZ more dovish than RBA then buying is more convincing. will see if there is any CB event of RBNZ on the calendar ..

RockDove Jan 7, 2020 8:14am | Post# 1035

{quote} tks buddy for the helpful info. usually if AN reverses with a central bank event .. like last time around 1.03 when mkt deemed RBNZ more dovish than RBA then buying is more convincing. will see if there is any CB event of RBNZ on the calendar ..
Sounds like a plan. I remember that!

prashfx Jan 7, 2020 8:24am | Post# 1036

{quote} Sounds like a plan. I remember that!
feb 12 RBNZ IR decision ... if they give hints of easing after preceding some hopefully not so good data .. then maybe else looks like we continue to go down ...

ron.jones43 Jan 8, 2020 12:53pm | Post# 1037

holding from 1.0320ish. this will be the trade of 2020

ron.jones43 Jan 10, 2020 12:40am | Post# 1038

holding from 1.0320ish. this will be the trade of 2020
already up +70 from yesterday. good start.

vincentprice Jan 10, 2020 4:14am | Post# 1039

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Resistance at current level 1.39 indicates that 1.41 - 1.42 as a potential swing entry into the downtrend for this pair, if this price level is reached soon.

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Firstfx Jan 10, 2020 9:01am | Post# 1040

I went long this pair a couple of days ago at 1.034.


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