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sevenjones Dec 26, 2010 1:46am | Post# 41

Is there a good EA for trading this pair?

pangro Dec 30, 2010 9:08am | Post# 42

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Good morning

I am short at 1,34200.Current trendline is unsustainable sooner or later to be tested and current price is streched far above 200 dma.This usually brings down this pair.
Hi all

I have decided to close this position (nice profit) and market is in the support area now.Wil watch for another short.
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Firstfx Dec 31, 2010 8:31am | Post# 43

I have locked in about 180 pips profit on this one too on part of my position. Looks like the 1.3220 resistance has been broken. Perhaps the 1.2950 will hold as the next resistance. Then again this downfall has picked up much steam, similar to how the AUDNZD went from about 1.2930 to 1.35.

New Zealand seems to be back in favor. Along with the recent China interest rate increase, I am also wondering if the recent floods in Australia have been holding the AUD back.

pipoxy Jan 27, 2011 8:56pm | Post# 44

aud/nzd
 
What are people's thoughts on AUD/NZD situation? Currently @ 1.2818.

I've taken a few long positions with 1.3000 as the target.
It's interest +, so i'm keeping it 'til it reaches fruition.
In the event of further retracement i'll be looking to add a little more.
(Next limit order @ 1.2750).

RBNZ kept rates at 3% and risk appetite still runs high, or so it seems.
I'm banking on Aussie to make me a little money here

Regards,

gleem Jan 27, 2011 10:19pm | Post# 45

taken a very small long position at 1.2800, expecting a bit of a rebound in the coming sessions.. however with the current fundamentals this might not find good support untill the1.2650 region.

Market also seems to be short metals and long soft ags over the past week which could also support further declines.. be careful.

pipoxy Jan 28, 2011 1:50am | Post# 46

I concur, gleem, caution is very much warranted at this junction.
Discretion is a better part of valor, as they say.

I've been taking relatively small positions so as not to over-expose myself, and be able to $-cost average effectively.

I'm ok with this pair going as low as 1.2500. Beyond that, however, i would start getting worried.

Meanwhile i'll be welcoming the positive interest trickle and enjoying the ride.

Cheers

Firstfx Jan 28, 2011 2:15am | Post# 47

A long right now would only be a fair bet. Too much negative recent news surrounding AUD and some decent positive surrounding NZD.

I am expecting a drop close to the 1.2750 at least. Then 1.2650 form there. Some consolidation. If NZD news keeps coming out positive and AUD negative then a drop to about 1.24. I expect some consolidation along the way.

pipoxy Feb 2, 2011 8:32pm | Post# 48

...

I've taken a few long positions with 1.3000 as the target.
Target hit. Aussie did not disappoint

Rtm Feb 24, 2011 9:12pm | Post# 49

Any short this pair?

I just went short with SL @ 1.3524 and TP @ 1.3361 trading the 4H, 1H charts.

Any opinions?

Heliosdz Feb 24, 2011 9:31pm | Post# 50

Post your charts and we'll discuss about it

knucklehead Feb 24, 2011 10:42pm | Post# 51

Any short this pair?

I just went short with SL @ 1.3524 and TP @ 1.3361 trading the 4H, 1H charts.

Any opinions?

Not me, at least not yet. I am on 4hr and its ranging.

Firstfx Feb 25, 2011 2:14am | Post# 52

Short is a farily good bet especially with a tight stop loss you have little to lose.

There is a good chance of 1.3640 in the next week or two. However the bad news appears to be all out for NZD. AUD will most likely hold interest rates steady in the next week. However there is speculation that NZD may lower their rate by .25 in about a week and a half. If that does not occur your short may be good as a rate decrease is at least half built into the high current AUDNZD.

tkhlam Mar 3, 2011 4:22am | Post# 53

Short is a farily good bet especially with a tight stop loss you have little to lose.

There is a good chance of 1.3640 in the next week or two. However the bad news appears to be all out for NZD. AUD will most likely hold interest rates steady in the next week. However there is speculation that NZD may lower their rate by .25 in about a week and a half. If that does not occur your short may be good as a rate decrease is at least half built into the high current AUDNZD.
Nice guess. Can you share with me your current view?

Firstfx Mar 4, 2011 10:51pm | Post# 54

Nice guess. Can you share with me your current view?
Well the AUDNZD hit a high of 1.3766 this past week and closed at about 1.3727. The NZD interest rate decision is coming out on Wed March 9 at 3 pm EDT. The market is expecting a reduction of .25 from 3% to 2.75%. 1.3766 is very close to the top of an upper daily trendline that started July 2010. So after such a long run in the AUDNZD a short as close as possible to 1.3766 with a stop loss (maybe at 1.3830 to 50 or tighter depending on your risk level) would be a good bet. Eyeing a take profit at just above 1.3550.

kingich Apr 11, 2011 2:08am | Post# 55

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BUY 0.100M AUD/NZD @ 1.34944, SL 1.34000 (94 pips), TP 1.37300 (236 pips) bullish ABCD pattern on 4H chart
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kingich Apr 14, 2011 3:01pm | Post# 56

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harmonic patterns
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The Fool Sep 28, 2011 5:37pm | Post# 57

bump
 
Is anybody around here trading this pair now? What are you paying in spread? The best OandA can do is 6 pips, ususally 7 +/-1. How do you trade it? Any microscalping mean reversion ea traders here?

I am scalping it manually sometimes when ranging behavior is pronounced. Dealer's spread is high to discourage that. Otherwise, cake. I think I remember seeing AUD/NZD spread of 3-4 somewhere not too long agao - maybe CitiFX, will have to look a round.

What do you know about recurring fundie influences on AUD/NZD? Any knowledge dropped appreciated.

Geene Oct 25, 2011 1:15pm | Post# 58

Distribution in progress

Small entry..sell 3097 sl 3135

Geene Oct 25, 2011 11:44pm | Post# 59

Distribution in progress

Small entry..sell 3097 sl 3135
TP 3014

The Fool Oct 26, 2011 12:14am | Post# 60

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TP 3014
congrats, Geene. Why do you like trading AUD/NZD?

One thing I think I am seeing is that the pair has a certain balance that can be upset by news events that bear on the AUD or NZD - as happened today with the aussie CPI data release. The "news effect" is not particularly fast moving though, so you can often exploit it....
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Geene Oct 26, 2011 1:26am | Post# 61


It seems like the (perfect) opportunity to me.

ChipsnPips Oct 26, 2011 2:10am | Post# 62


It seems like the (perfect) opportunity to me.
It seems you entered the trade prior to, and traded through the AUD CPI release. If it was posative news it would have gone against you? Unless you knew the results before the release wouldn't this trade be more like 50/50 gambling?

I too have just started watching the pair and was waiting for the 3185 level for a short. I still believe it may reach this level by end of the week/early next week.
just my 2c :-)

Geene Oct 26, 2011 4:27am | Post# 63

It seems you entered the trade prior to, and traded through the AUD CPI release. If it was posative news it would have gone against you? Unless you knew the results before the release wouldn't this trade be more like 50/50 gambling?

I too have just started watching the pair and was waiting for the 3185 level for a short. I still believe it may reach this level by end of the week/early next week.
just my 2c :-)
It seems you entered the trade prior to, and traded through the AUD CPI release. If it was posative news it would have gone against you? Unless you knew the results before the release wouldn't this trade be more like 50/50 gambling?

No...no..

uncleti88 Oct 26, 2011 4:30am | Post# 64

Spreads are bigger for these pair compared to some

Geene Oct 26, 2011 4:42am | Post# 65

Spreads are bigger for these pair compared to some
It doesn't matter if you enter a sell limit order .

The Fool Oct 26, 2011 4:51am | Post# 66

Spreads are bigger for these pair compared to some
5pip on Oanda. not a great choice to scalp but it trends well sometimes

DerekV Nov 17, 2011 12:43am | Post# 67

Wondering anyone still trading this pair?

This thread has been quite for sometimes.

Anyway, I took a trade, Short @ 3200 and stop 3285 with target @ 3035.

The trade is purely based on support/Resistance and price/momentum divergence.

So far the trade has gone according to plan and currently(5:40 London time) price at nippling at previous low, 1HR chart. If prices punch through the low (3145) then I expect the Double Top formation to play out with double top target around 3080.

MTsnowrider Nov 17, 2011 12:57am | Post# 68

Wondering anyone still trading this pair?

This thread has been quite for sometimes.

Anyway, I took a trade, Short @ 3200 and stop 3285 with target @ 3035.

The trade is purely based on support/Resistance and price/momentum divergence.

So far the trade has gone according to plan and currently(5:40 London time) price at nippling at previous low, 1HR chart. If prices punch through the low (3145) then I expect the Double Top formation to play out with double top target around 3080.
This thread seems to be a sleeper, but I frequently trade this pair with success. I agree with short term short @ 3200. Overall I think this pair is heading up, but not until after some correction down.

DerekV Nov 17, 2011 5:09am | Post# 69

This thread seems to be a sleeper, but I frequently trade this pair with success. I agree with short term short @ 3200. Overall I think this pair is heading up, but not until after some correction down.
Thanx MTsnowrider. It is now fighting hard at around 3150. Need a decisive breakthrough (southward) from 3150 to head to 3100.

I have my finger X.

Firstfx Nov 17, 2011 7:58pm | Post# 70

Yea, the short at 1.3215 is golden right now. I shorted 5 times my normal position size with a stop at about 1.3315 (this was more like an emergency stop - true stop about 40 pips) - to make about 40 pips profit .

Also shorted three normal positions at about 1.3210 to 1.3215 three times for about 40 pip profit each.

Basically there are several items that are creating this temporary top at about 1.3225.

-61.8% fib related to 1.38 high to 1.23 low.
-Channel slope similar to prior two large runs - May 2009 to about Dec 2009
and April 2010 to March 2011 - funny but so far the increasing slopes match.
-Fairly large run up from about 1.2360 to current price with no real pull back yet.
-Past top/resistance at this area
-RSI daily near 70 (although this pair has gone higher in past)

Next resistance is farily high up on this pair at about 1.3518.

MTsnowrider Nov 18, 2011 1:11am | Post# 71

Yea, the short at 1.3215 is golden right now. I shorted 5 times my normal position size with a stop at about 1.3315 (this was more like an emergency stop - true stop about 40 pips) - to make about 40 pips profit .

Also shorted three normal positions at about 1.3210 to 1.3215 three times for about 40 pip profit each.

Basically there are several items that are creating this temporary top at about 1.3225.

[color=black][font=Verdana]-61.8%...
Good technical analysis here! I took profit earlier this week on a longer term trade @ 1.3125 after nice ride up from 1.27. I've taken a few shorts on rallies to 1.3210 area this week. Still looking for more pullback before any break above 3225 area. Daily RSI is looking a bit high and probably needs some more unwinding. I love this pair for slow and steady pips. I made good profit during the previous large runs you mentioned. Eventually look to see a possible re-test of 1.38 highs from March. Of course this is Forex, and news can always send it down for a more significant correction.

Mehrdadovic Jan 5, 2012 12:10pm | Post# 72

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MAYBE BAT :
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hornsant Jan 10, 2012 6:52pm | Post# 73

there seems to be room to go down to the 1.27 area.

VanDemon Jan 24, 2012 12:00am | Post# 74

just broke through 1.2957... next level 1.2945 then i'm in short.

sniperfxmy Mar 7, 2012 10:57am | Post# 75

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knock! knock!

anyway... short and aim for support zone hope by tomolo
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Paulenok May 23, 2012 2:31am | Post# 76

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Hi! Closed above, so I am long. 4H TF suggested me buying aswell, as we could see third bounce; now, having a confirmation, I feel pretty confident about this.
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Paulenok May 23, 2012 2:42am | Post# 77

TP was hit, +100.

Resistance at 1.3015 seems crucial, be careful there.

Paulenok May 23, 2012 10:48am | Post# 78

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One must be patient now )
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Paulenok May 23, 2012 12:09pm | Post# 79

Short at 1.29921

Paulenok May 23, 2012 1:50pm | Post# 80

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Ausie open gonna get us some more action, will keep eye on 1.29165.
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