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-   -   NZD/USD (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/249161-nzdusd)

zenlot Nov 12, 2019 3:42pm | Post# 13701

any upside is going to be short-lived in NZDUSD, since rate cuts are not positive for the underlying currency + the unhealthy retail in sentiment signals further losses. 6100-6150 next 4-6 weeks very likely at this rate of decline. I'd rather focus on short selling any rips/bounces after RBNZ.
While I agree with the negative outlook, I would swap sides at around .6210 and reposition to long if this level will be reached in 4 to 6 weeks.

asgcorp Nov 12, 2019 3:54pm | Post# 13702

I'd take it one step at a time.
Right now I will be focused on buying the dip after RBNZ.

Arshamv Nov 12, 2019 4:18pm | Post# 13703

I'd take it one step at a time. Right now I will be focused on buying the dip after RBNZ. https://cdn-resources.faireconomy.me....png?v=1.0.0.1
Sorry I confused about your planPls clear it,you want sell it in highsOr buy it in dips

OnlineAddict Nov 12, 2019 8:07pm | Post# 13704

Cashed out quick 80 pips on the H1 bottoming, it was worth to stay up this late. Out of my long at 6410, even though we may continue up, and looking at daily...it may be just a start of an uptrend, if we keep this up until the day end.

HanHanid Nov 12, 2019 8:20pm | Post# 13705

2 Attachment(s)
Hello fellas !

Right timing for NZD pairs, anyone think it is a high time for sell ? for a RR that is more than 1:3, i think it is a good bargain

Cheers
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Unbiased Nov 12, 2019 8:47pm | Post# 13706

{quote} Ahead of RBNZ decision, closed sell trade with +25.0 pips at closure of London session.
RBNZ didn't cut OCR. NZD soars 85.0 pips in minutes. It was a good move to close sell position in profit ahead of RBNZ decision. I will try to understand future OCR from RBNZ Press Conference.

i.o Nov 12, 2019 11:09pm | Post# 13707

{quote} RBNZ didn't cut OCR. NZD soars 85.0 pips in minutes. It was a good move to close sell position in profit ahead of RBNZ decision. I will try to understand future OCR from RBNZ Press Conference.
good decision, cheers!

Unbiased Nov 12, 2019 11:39pm | Post# 13708

2 Attachment(s)
NZD/USD analysis | Nov 13, 2019

The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed around 0.6400 until end of RBNZ press conference. In press conference, governor Orr said that economy as per his assessment is doing well, so he doesn't see a need of rate cut.

On daily/D1 time-frame: target is where ABCD161.8 & abcd61.8 coincides, this area also makes a resistance cluster with FIB50.0 of whole swing down and previous swing lows.
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On H1 time-frame: Overbought RSI makes a ground for some downward correction/retracement. FIB50.0 coincides with previous swing high, which makes this price level a significant support. If the pair retraces down to this support level, there is high probability that it may return back to upside from here. Therefore, we have a buy limit here. However, we cannot be sure that it will retrace down to this support level, so we have already entered half buy position and kept half for buy limit.
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zenlot Nov 13, 2019 12:14am | Post# 13709

"In press conference, governor Orr said that economy as per his assessment is doing well, so he doesn't see a need of rate cut." - he wasn't that hawkish during the press conference. Also, the main factor to keep rates unchanged looks to be uncertainty with US-China trade deal, so it was better to hold off some cards and leave more room and options going into next year. What they did was basically a mirror of Feds decision. I'd be looking for shorts today before US open.

asgcorp Nov 13, 2019 2:39am | Post# 13710

I'd take it one step at a time. Right now I will be focused on buying the dip after RBNZ.
no dip to buy, so I'm skipping NZDUSD for now.
I can't get a clear read on the chart.

Arshamv Nov 13, 2019 3:01am | Post# 13711

{quote} no dip to buy, so I'm skipping NZDUSD for now. I can't get a clear read on the chart.
"any upside is going to be short-lived in NZDUSD"At least I hope that this part of your analyze will be happen!

HanHanid Nov 13, 2019 3:24am | Post# 13712

{quote} "any upside is going to be short-lived in NZDUSD"At least I hope that this part of your analyze will be happen!

Second that !

asgcorp Nov 13, 2019 4:45am | Post# 13713

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NU/AU might be diverging from here, as can be clearly seen on AN, it's got a potential H*S setup on daily.
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Kordan Nov 14, 2019 9:53am | Post# 13714

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Hi everybody.
Open order in sell at 0.6388.
On my forecast it will be good profit.
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Unbiased Nov 14, 2019 7:54pm | Post# 13715

NZD/USD analysis | Nov 13, 2019 The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed...
The buy limit was activated yesterday as NZD/USD retraced down.

chessforex20 Nov 17, 2019 7:02pm | Post# 13716

New Zealand data - services PMI for October rises to 55.4 from September's 54.4

Kordan Nov 19, 2019 9:00am | Post# 13717

Hi everybody. Open order in sell at 0.6388. On my forecast it will be good profit. {image}
Closed order on 0.6369. Good profit

Unbiased Nov 19, 2019 2:43pm | Post# 13718

NZD/USD analysis | Nov 13, 2019 The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed...

Moved SL to BE. We have two split positions, so actual BE is the average of BEs of the two.


Unbiased Nov 20, 2019 10:48pm | Post# 13719

1 Attachment(s)
NZD/USD analysis | Nov 13, 2019 The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed...
We updated our target and SL for buy trades of NZD/USD that were entered as per our quoted NZD analysis. The new nearest target is XadY100.0 (around 0.64500) because all other targets mentioned in quoted analysis are beyond it. New SL is below the opening point of engulfing candle shown in the pic below. This new SL is higher than average of BEs of the two trades, therefore now these trades are risk free and will be profitable even if they will be closed at the SL.
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Unbiased Nov 21, 2019 7:28am | Post# 13720

{quote} We updated our target and SL for buy trades of NZD/USD that were entered as per our quoted NZD analysis. The new nearest target is XadY100.0 (around 0.64500) because all other targets mentioned in quoted analysis are beyond it. New SL is below the opening point of engulfing candle shown in the pic below. This new SL is higher than average of BEs of the two trades, therefore now these trades are risk free and will be profitable even if they will be closed at the SL. {image}
Closed one out of two positions with +63.0 pips, keeping another for further gains.


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