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-   -   NZD/USD (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=249161)

peter54 Dec 7, 2010 5:54pm | Post# 101

First of all , i dont think you drew your trend line accurately.


secondly its the resistance that 0.7666 that held it succesfully as a double top which kinda mirrors AUD.

Happy tradings

thanks for your comments Why is the trend line not drawn accurately ? It's a little too low isn't it? oh and yes I did not recognize the douple top - shame on me

RisingSun Dec 8, 2010 5:15pm | Post# 102

MMA + PA breakout trades
 
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just following the price action. purple dotted vertical lines are GMT9 ...

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000dragan Dec 8, 2010 7:56pm | Post# 103

did anyone here profit on the rates?i took 9 pips but it went furter,i missed out on 25 more
the canadian rate change only moved against the dollar 12 pips,whys dat?new zealand economy is certainly smaller than cad's.might be the difference that nzd is 3% and cad;s lower 1%

uncle gromit Dec 9, 2010 3:56am | Post# 104

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did anyone here profit on the rates?i took 9 pips but it went furter,i missed out on 25 more
the canadian rate change only moved against the dollar 12 pips,whys dat?new zealand economy is certainly smaller than cad's.might be the difference that nzd is 3% and cad;s lower 1%
Took the short as per my last post. Closed for +100 when price stalled on the 4h. Looking to re enter on any weakness.
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eximir Dec 13, 2010 12:18am | Post# 105

NZD today's rally:
Target 7548

eximir Dec 13, 2010 10:46am | Post# 106

NZD correction from top 7572 min 7525 (38%)

Magic Trader Dec 13, 2010 2:32pm | Post# 107

NU Characteristics
 
Can anyone share NU characteristics that they've found? I'm talking about ranges, time of day, anything you may have observed. Not talking about TL, Fibs, Waves.

Thanks.

eximir Dec 13, 2010 5:25pm | Post# 108

Retails sales was not within market expectations:

It is not a big deal since it is large amount of discount going on retail stores but seems as usual nobody get it Asian session and just couple of hours later on London and NY people will be realized the fact.
Kiwi is heading toward 7700 within this week.but if retail was good it could lift it up around 7900.

TexasforEX Dec 13, 2010 5:34pm | Post# 109

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Retails sales was not within market expectations:

It is not a big deal since it is large amount of discount going on retail stores but seems as usual nobody get it Asian session and just couple of hours later on London and NY people will be realized the fact.
It is not a big deal since it is lot of discount on retail store but seems as usual nobody get it Asian session and just couple of hours later on London and NY people will be realized the fact.
Kiwi is heading...

It's very likely that price won't get above 7620 and 7665 and in fact, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if price just made it's high for the week at 7574. Basically, what I'm saying is that there is a minority chance price gets past the prior swing high at .7665. If it does get above, it won't stop at .7700. It'll blow right past that.

Your analysis seems to be based more on fundamentals and I find it to be sub par, at best. You provide very little technical analysis, probably because it is horrible. The levels you provide are arbitrary and not reliable at all. Sad but true.
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eximir Dec 13, 2010 8:27pm | Post# 110

It's very likely that price won't get above 7620 and 7665 and in fact, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if price just made it's high for the week at 7574....
I'm not much into technical although I have reasonable knowledge of that too.
well technically concern let's say:

Shadow(Hi): 7667 to 7686 top
On close basis: 7676 to 7671 top

Personally I would be selling at 7676 not get involved anything bellow that.
fundamental view gave me better vision to know where the trend is heading to.of course I should spend couple of years in university to know what is what.

But I see huge support@ 7400 area now act as former psycological barrier at 7000.current trend till reaching 8000 and above is not done yet.

RisingSun Dec 13, 2010 9:26pm | Post# 111

GMT9 trades
 
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Hey Magic!
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lukaz_86 Dec 15, 2010 6:46am | Post# 112

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long is cooking:

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TexasforEX Dec 15, 2010 6:47pm | Post# 113

it's always nice
 
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Price is respecting the fib channels very nicely. Today's move stopped right on the 38.2 retracement of the upper channel trendline. Profit was taken on all my shorts at 7388.

Currently flat and waiting for new trade setup.

Cheerio.
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Ma Baker Dec 16, 2010 8:42am | Post# 114

Good Afternoon All !
 
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Deep Crab
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johnnyrei Dec 16, 2010 1:52pm | Post# 115

New Zealand moves with gold. Gold has currently touched 1361 and it's heading upwards. But your chart looks very valid... hmm.

eximir Dec 16, 2010 8:56pm | Post# 116

New Zealand moves with gold. Gold has currently touched 1361 and it's heading upwards. But your chart looks very valid... hmm.
NZD particularly these days is pretty much correlated to Euro moves.

I expect today Euro take off and pulls New Zealand dollar up with itself too.

beside 60% of opposite directional movement in USD index negatively draines and weighed on NZD as well.With money market weakness in USD and less demand for that from today it will be probably blow wind to NZD back and send it up bellow 75 area today.

I think NZD bottomed and going up again specially yesterday China anounced to banks to lend as usual and temporarily today's Europe economic summit must give some relief to already deeply depressed market for a while.

Gold is trapped in a choppy trend and will consolidate until second quarter 2011.

sweetaction Dec 16, 2010 9:43pm | Post# 117

NZD is pretty much history for longs in my opinion, I expect it will PB to 7436/60 where the orders will be parked during the Frankfurt open later today.

The Monthly hammer in November won't be denied in my opinion, when they have happened in the past, NZD has respected this powerful formation particularly on a Monthly chart, so far in december we have seen a nice enough retrace of this hammer to suggest the bull run in this pair is over.

Fundamentally we have rising unemployment, falling growth, downgrades by the ratings agencies, and poor overall data (retail sales and exmaple of one) in the last few months.

Any rise in Kiwi will be fueled by risk on sentiment and short lived. Price is a two way street and personally I will be selling rallies in this pair in line with the long term trend.

Simon

eximir Dec 16, 2010 10:35pm | Post# 118

NZD is pretty much history for longs in my opinion, I expect it will PB to 7436/60 where the orders will be parked during the Frankfurt open later today.

The Monthly hammer in November won't be denied in my opinion, when they have happened in the past, NZD has respected this powerful formation particularly on a Monthly chart, so far in december we have seen a nice enough retrace of this hammer to suggest the bull run in this pair is over.

Fundamentally we have rising unemployment, falling growth, downgrades by the ratings agencies,...
Those fundamental mentioned do not primarily drives real exchange rate over long run.of course unemployment and growth are very important but these data by nature are very dynamic so couple of months or even quarter won't change real course of trend.

that S&P downgrade as chairman of NZ reserve bank said few days ago during an interview was a bit conservative concern that seems to be consequences of what happened in Greece then Ireland and has nothing to do with NZ at all.

NZ economy has lots of tight bondaries to Australia and Australasian economy is pretty much wrecked to same train called Chinese economy which doesn't seems to be weak in long term.

I wouldn't deny ups and downs in months ahead but totally backup bluish scenario rather than bearish.

but regarding today's outlook as a swing trader I would rather prefer to stay long up to 7630 which I'm expecting to be done mid next week.

sweetaction Dec 16, 2010 11:03pm | Post# 119

each to their own its your money

eximir Dec 16, 2010 11:18pm | Post# 120

each to their own its your money
I don't give a damn to this Japanese invention of hammer things, if this true interpretation of market then why they have this much trouble making money?

I only works on demand and supply and the reasons which drives both ends.

Forces are ruling the market dynamically changes time to time so I also don't care what happened in the past too.

If history was helpful then all these statistic measures could help market makers to get through all these troubles which made them lose a lot of money though.

My knowledge as my educational background says: Term of Trade and Real TWI index both improves.at the same time current account also international direct investment been reversed up quiet long ago,so I'm bluish!


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